Slides for a talk on "Identifying and Responding to Emerging Technologies" to be given by Brian Kelly, UKOLN at the IWMW 2012 event to be held in Edinburgh on 18-20 June 2012. See http://iwmw.ukoln.ac.uk/iwmw2012/sessions/jisc-observatory/

1. Twitter: http://iwmw.ukoln.ac.uk/iwmw2012/sessions/jisc-observatory//
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IWMW 2012:
Identifying and Responding to
Emerging Technologies
Brian Kelly
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2. Introduction Summary
This session will be facilitated by members of
the JISC Observatory team at UKOLN and
CETIS.
It will use a mixture of group exercises and
discussions to understand potential enablers
and disenablers of emerging new technologies.
Having developed a better appreciation of how
new technologies may or may not be adopted
can help to develop appropriate strategies for
preparing institutions for exploiting
innovative developments in an appropriate
and effective manner.
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3. Timetable
Time Content Who
11.00 Introductions BK
11.05 Your interests All
11.15 Detecting, Analysing & Interpreting Trends BK
11.20 Exploring Scenarios All
11.45 The Mobile Scenario MP
11.55 JISC Observatory: Horizon Scanning for the Sector TB
12.10 Getting Involved All
12.25 Final Thoughts All
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4. Introduction Introductions
Facilitators:
Brian Kelly, Innovation Support Centre
at UKOLN and Communications
Manager for the JISC Observatory
Thom Bunting, Innovation Support
Centre at UKOLN and JISC
Observatory Project Manager
Mark Power, JISC CETIS, contributor
to JISC Observatory & author of
Delivering Web to Mobile report.
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5. Introduction Your Interests
In small groups:
• Introduce yourselves
• Describe what you hope to gain from the
session and any particular topics you’d like
to see addressed
You will summarise the key points in ~5 minutes
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6. Analysing Trends Analysing Trends
Which would have been the most useful
prediction in 2009:
• “Gordon Brown will win the election, overcome the
economic difficulties and invest in education, the
health service and the environment”
• “The Tories will win the election but have to form
a coalition with the Lib Dems. They cut back
public investment, increase tuition fees which
results in a double-dip recession and 10%
reduction in student numbers”
Planning for future scenarios can be of limited use if we
base future scenarios on our wishes rather than reality!
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7. Analysing Trends Detecting Trends
Series of evidence-based posts on UK Web
Focus blog look at trends which help us to
understand today’s environment.
What might these usage trends tell us?
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8. Analysing Trends
Challenges:
• Context
• Blips
• Lack of a NPOV
Blekko’s Traffic up by 400%
Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof?
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Will It Challenge Google?
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9. Analysing Trends Understanding Trends
“Lies, damned lies and
statistics”
“Anscombe's quartet comprises four
datasets that have nearly identical
simple statistical properties, yet
appear very different when graphed”
Anscombe's quartet, Wikipedia
hallenge is in:
• Interpreting the evidence
• Postulating reasons
• Speculating on implications
• Implementing evidence-based
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10. Analysing Trends Interpreting Trends
pproaches:
• Documenting the survey methodology (the
‘paradata’) e.g.
“Data was collected using Firefox on 1 June 2012”
• Providing open access to data where possible
(often using Google Spreadsheets)
• Publishing an open commentable summary of the
survey, the methodology, the findings, the
• Survey of Institutional inviting discussions
implications and Use of Facebook
• Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It
Challenge Google?
• Institutional Use of Social Media in China
• Profiling Staff and Researcher Use of Cloud Services Across
Russell Group Universities
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11. JIS Observatory process
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12. Exploring Scenarios Group Exercise
Choose one scenario:
• Scenario 1: Social Media
Does Social media have a significant role to play
across a range of University activities, or is it hype
or primarily for personal use?
• Scenario 2: Open Data
Is open data really "the new content" which will be
of importance to the Web team as well as the
University? Or might it be the latest fashionable
term? And in a time of cuts, increased fees and
competition for students and research funding,
won't institutions be less inclined to provide open
access to data, their 'crown jewels'?
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13. Exploring Scenarios Group Exercise
Choose one scenario:
• Scenario 3: Structured Metadata For the Web
Will developments such as schema.org provided
better searching for structured resources? Should
we be implementing it? But didn't we hear promises
that Dublin Core metadata in Web pages or use of
RDF would deliver this in the past?
• Scenario 4: Online Conferencing
Will online conferencing and collaboration tools
have an impact on traditional approaches, ranging
from conferences, events for practitioners (e.g.
IWMW) through to student lectures? How might,
e.g. this affect plans for building a new conference
centre and lecture theatre block?
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14. Exploring Scenarios Group Exercise
Choose one context:
• Responding to the institution
The Pro Vice-Chancellor / Head of IT/ Librarian
has asked for a report on the scenarios you have
chosen. This will be discussed at a forthcoming
planning meeting
• Advising the institution
You have been asked to provide a paper on IT
developments which should be considered in
planning related to current institutional priorities
(threats and opportunities)
You have 15 minutes to produce a plan for the report, which will describe
the processes for gathering & interpreting evidence. Note the SMT want
evidence,centrespeculation andinformation management
A not of expertise in digital ‘hand-waving’!
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15. MP
Mobile Study Case Study
Mark Power to summarise approaches take in
commissioning and writing the Delivering Web
to Mobile TechWatch report
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16. TB
JISC Observatory: Horizon
Scanning for the Sector
Thom Bunting to describe:
• The role of the JISC Observatory
• The approaches it takes
• The work it has carried out
• Ways in which you can get involved
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