This document discusses the opportunities and strategy for real estate investment in China. It notes that China was less impacted by the global financial crisis and is becoming the dominant country in global trade and consumption. A huge new middle class is emerging in China and other Asian countries. Rapid urbanization is creating many real estate development opportunities. While competition is intense, continued strong economic growth, currency appreciation trends, and China's ability to absorb global capital make real estate investment in China compelling despite challenges around transparency, future supply, and tax/profit repatriation. Local partnerships are key to success.
3. Asia / China much less impacted by the crisis
20
Real GDP, quarterly percent change, year-on-year
15
10
5
0
Asia
-5
OECD
China
Source: Global Insight, Grosvenor Research 2012
2013Q1
2012Q1
2011Q1
2010Q1
2009Q1
2008Q1
2007Q1
2006Q1
2005Q1
2004Q1
2003Q1
2002Q1
2001Q1
2000Q1
1999Q1
1998Q1
1997Q1
1996Q1
1995Q1
-10
4. China is becoming the dominant country in global trade
30
Country share of world exports (%)
2010
25
2030
20
15
10
5
Source: Global Insight, Grosvenor Research, 2012
China
India
South Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Taiwan
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Eurozone
US
0
5. In 20 years China will equal the US as the world’s
leading consumer nation
30,000
Nominal Private Consumption billions US$
2010
25,000
2030
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Source: Global Insight, Grosvenor Research, 2012
China
India
Japan
Indonesia
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Vietnam
Singapore
Hong Kong
US
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Canada
Spain
Australia
0
6. China’s forecast GDP growth is high, by any standard
9
GDP growth 2012-2020 p.a.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Source: Global Insight, Grosvenor Research, 2012
India
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Malaysia
Thailand
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan
Japan
UK
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
US
0
7. A new and huge middle class is emerging
Global middle class
Millions
Household income of $10 to $100 dollars a day in PPP
3,500
3,000
2,500
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2,000
Asia Pacific
Central and South America
Europe
1,500
North America
1,000
500
0
2009
Source: Oxford Economics
2020
8. Urban growth creates many real estate opportunities
Urban population (as a % of total)
100%
90%
2010
80%
2030
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Source: UN, Grosvenor Research, 2012
US
Western Europe
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Japan
Indonesia
China
Thailand
India
0%
9. Source: UN, Grosvenor Research, 2012
Tokyo
Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Shanghai
Manila
Beijing
Shenzhen
Guangzhou, Guangdong
Chongqing
New York
Los Angeles
Paris
Chicago
London
Miami
2010
30,000
Philadelphia
35,000
Madrid
40,000
Toronto
Dallas-Fort Worth
A large number of sizeable markets
Total population – 000’s people
2030
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
10. Property owner-occupation ratio in Asia / China is high
100
% of owner-occupied stock
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: DTZ, Grosvenor Research, 2012
India
Thailand
Taiwan
China
Malaysia
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
Hong Kong
US
Australia
UK
Switzerland
0
14. ABOUT GROSVENOR
Grosvenor is a privately owned property group
active in some of the world’s most dynamic cities.
300 acres covering Mayfair and Belgravia.
Creating exceptional places for people to live, work and
relax.
Map to left: Grosvenor's Mayfair and Belgravia estate in Central London
15. ABOUT GROSVENOR
One of the largest
private real estate
companies in the
world
World-wide staff of
over 560
professionals with
interests in 12
countries operating
from 18 local offices
We manage
properties with a
total value of
£12.5bn (US$20bn)
Figures as at 17 April 2012
16. A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
560 staff worldwide
interests in 12
countries
operating from 18
local offices
We manage
properties with a total
value of £12.5bn
(US$20bn) of which
retail represents 43%
ABOUT GROSVENOR
17. OUR HERITAGE
The origins of Grosvenor are in the development and
management of London’s largest private estate dating back
over 300 years
TIMELINE
1677: Mayfair and Belgravia came in to the Grosvenor Family
1720: Development began in Central London
1953: Started Americas business. First international acquisition
1956: First Joint Venture
1967: Started Australia business
1976: Launched our first Fund
1994: Started Asia business
1998: Started Continental Europe business
2005: Formally established Grosvenor Fund Management
18. Local presence and local partners key to
success
■
Hong Kong, 25 September 2012 - Harvest Fund Management (“HFM”)
and Grosvenor Fund Management (“GFM”) have joined forces to
launch a dedicated real estate fund management business
investing in Greater China to be led by Mr Rong Ren.
■
The business, named Harvest Real Estate Investments (“HREI”), will
manage Greater China real estate strategies for investors
globally, through the creation of both U.S. dollar denominated and
Renminbi denominated funds. The business seeks to identify
attractive real estate opportunities across multiple sectors within
Greater China’s emerging real estate industry for both international
investors and domestic investors in China. The business also
plans to bring global real estate opportunities to domestic
investors in China.
20. Source: brokers, Grosvenor Research, 2012
Shanghai Office
Shanghai Retail
Tokyo Office
Hong Kong Office
Calgary Office
Sydney Office
Washington DC Retail
City - London Office
San Francisco Office
7.0
Paris Office
8.0
Madrid Office
9.0
Munich Office
LA Office
Future supply
Completions as % of stock
10.0
Historic
Next five years
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
21. Source: JLL, Grosvenor Research, 2012
Vietnam
China Tier 3 Cities
India Tier 3 Cities
India Tier 2 Cities
India Tier 1 Cities
China Tier 2 Cities
South Korea
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
China Tier 1 Cities
Taiwan
Japan
Malaysia
Singapore
Hong Kong
Spain
Germany
Sweden
France
Australia
UK
US
Lack of transparency
4.0 JLL Transparency index (the lowest the number, the more transparent the market)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
22. The competition is very tough
■ Local players;
– Generally well capitalised, good local knowledge, poor asset
management skills
■ Foreign players
– Direct investors
•
Well capitalised, partner with the best local players
(ADIA, GIC, CPP)
– HK / Singaporean listed developers
•
Sophisticated, long term presence in China, big teams on the
ground, can source land and build good product (Sung Hung
Kai, Cheung Kong, New World Developers, Henderson
Land, Capital Land, Swire)
23. The competition is very tough
■ Foreign players (Cont.)
– US / Australian developers
•
Late comers, some difficulties in buying land (Tishman Speyer, Lend
Lease), bring retail and asset management expertise
– Japanese developers
•
Bring retail expertise, partner with Chinese developers, bring retail
expertise, well capitalised
– Investment bank backed funds
•
Some OK others came in at the wrong time, big and well
capitalised, not always well run (MSREF, Whitehall, JP
Morgan, Merrill Lynch)
24. The competition is very tough
■ US and European Fund managers
– LIM, CBRE, Pramerica, Invesco, Grosvenor etc.
■ Regional fund mangers
– MGPA, ARA (dragon Fund)
– Some debt players
25. Taxation and profit repatriation can be difficult
■ Check out ‘China real estate investment handbook’ by
Deloitte, 2012
■ Situation is complex and ever changing
■ Presently it is difficult to dispose of an asset by any route and
repatriate
■ Repatriation of income / dividend is easier
26. Three ways to repatriate – all are difficult
■
Option A – Disposition of the asset.
–
–
■
It will trigger one of the key taxes in China which is the land appreciation tax, which can range from 30-60% of the
appreciation gain depending on the range of the gain.
Option B – Disposition of the shares in the onshore company
–
–
■
This is the worst option in terms of tax efficiency.
Reasonable in terms of tax efficiency
A withholding tax on the gains need to paid when the money is repatriated offshore, typically 5-10% on the gain
depending on the jurisdiction of the offshore company
Option C – Disposition of the shares in the offshore company
–
This is the most ideal in terms of tax efficiency.
–
Since the transaction occurs offshore, taxes are very minimal
–
–
However, the Chinese government announced Circular 698, which basically says for all offshore indirect transfers, the
Chinese tax authorities will still treat it as a transfer onshore hence the deal can be subject taxes like a onshore
Chinese company.
Nowadays, many investors tries to use different ways to mitigate the risk of circular 698 which include structuring
multi-layer Cayman holding companies
28. Conclusions
■ Growth and diversification are compelling arguments;
– Trend nominal GDP growth of 7.5% + 4% = 11.5%
– Currency appreciation
– Versus perpetual recession in Europe, tax and dollar weakness
in the US
– A global real estate portfolio is overweight China
■ Pension savings need a home – China has huge capacity to
absorb investment
■ Taking Chinese capital out, is also a motivation for fund
managers