1. Evaluation of WRF and ECMWF forecasts for
Spain
L. Ramírez, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, L. Martín, A. Navarro, J.
Navarro, P. Jiménez, A. Araujo, E. Garcia-Bustamante
CIEMAT (Energy department – Solar Platform of Almería)
E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj
Oldenburg University, Germany
Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory
Energy Meteorology Group
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

2. Objetive
1. Validate ECMWF Analisis Data (ERA-40)  Global
Model.
2. ERA-40 is used as initial conditions for Mesoescale
Models for dynamic downscaling.
3. Validate Mesoescale Model with higher temporal
and spatial resolution.
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

3. ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION
•Data Period:
1994-2004
•Reanalisis data of daily
Goblal Solar Radiation
•Global Model
•Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 3

4. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

5. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

6. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada
MBE:-21.67%
RMSE:27.20%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

7. Oviedo
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
MBE:-7.52%
RMSE:39.55%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

8. WRF DAILY & HOURLY
VALIDATION
•Data Period:
1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005
•#Data:
59 days of data
1416 values.
•Reanalisys of Hourly
Goblal Solar Radiation
•Domain Europe
•Resolution 27km
65
60
55
50
45
40
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
8

9. WRF RESULTS: HOURLY
M B E Hourly S olar R adiation F orec as ting
20
15
10
RM S E H ourly S olar Radiation F orec as ting
100
5
90
0
80
-5
70
-10
60
% RM S E
-15 50
40
-20
30
-25
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Latitude
20
10
0
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Latitude
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 9

10. WRF RESULTS: DAILY
MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
20
15
10
5
0
% MBE
-5
-10
-15
-20 RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
90
-25
80
-30
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Latitude 70
60
50
% RMSE
40
30
20
10
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 0 10
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

11. HOURLY VALIDATION:
GRANADA 37.14º
8
00
7
00
6
00
5
00
4
00
3
00
2
00
1
00
0
-0
10
0 5
00 1 0
00 1 0
50
MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 11

12. DAILY VALIDATION:
GRANADA 37.14º
Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
MBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 12

13. HOURLY VALIDATION:
7
00
OVIEDO 43.35º
6
00
5
00
4
00
3
00
2
00
1
00
0
-0
10
0 5
00 1 0
00 1 0
50
MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 13

14. DAILY VALIDATION:
OVIEDO 43.35º
Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
MBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 14

15. 1/2/2005
SINOPTIC SITUATION 1 12:00
CI FROM SATELLITE Granada
ALBEDO
WRF GHi MAP
WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 15

16. 6/2/2005
SINOPTIC SITUATION 2 12:00
CI FROM SATELLITE Granada
ALBEDO
WRF GHi MAP
WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 16

17. 9/2/2005
SINOPTIC SITUATION 3 12:00
CI FROM SATELLITE Granada
ALBEDO
WRF GHi MAP
WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 17

18. 22/2/2005
SINOPTIC SITUATION 4 12:00
CI FROM SATELLITE Granada
ALBEDO
WRF GHi MAP
WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 18

19. Thank you
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007