Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...
Climate change impacts on food and water in Pakistan and Options for Adaptation by Andrew Bell
1. IFPRI
Climate change impacts on water
and food in Pakistan
and options for adaptation
Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Tim
Sulser, Andrew Bell, Mohsin Iqbal
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
2. The IMPACT Model
Models global demand, yield, and trade of 38
agricultural economies at country-level resolution
IMPACT-WATER model incorporates water
availability across 126 basins as a driver
Draws on supply, demand, and trade data from
FAOSTAT, UN, World Bank, IFPRI
Runs scenarios for growth in urban area, population,
income, or changes in yield or yield elasticities, etc.
3. Climate affects water and food through changes in
temperature and precipitation
Change in annual rainfall
Change in max temperature (degree C)
(mm)
2000 2050 2000 2050
Azad Kashmir 27.7 +1.4 to 3.2 765 -139 to +18
Baluchistan 38.6 +1.3 to 2.6 151 -3 to +55
F.A.T.A. 34.4 +1.7 to 4.1 482 -45 to +33
F.C.T. 38.6 +1.4 to 3.4 911 -105 to +12
N.W.F.P. 30.2 +1.5 to 3.5 609 -80 to +26
Northern Areas 17.0 +1.5 to 3.2 194 -14 to +51
Punjab 41.6 +1.4 to 2.6 299 -32 to +77
Sind 41.6 +1.2 to 2.7 171 +12 to +90
Scenarios: MIR-A1, ECH-A1, CSI-A1, CNR-A1
Source: IFPRI, 2012
4. Impact of CC on runoff
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
5. Impact of CC irrigation
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
10. Six Adaptation scenarios
INC AG INC AG RES
INC AG RES
RES: w/EFF & IRR PAK4 (PAK3 +
Parameters w/EFF: PAK_ST PAK_BE
SRF_PAK EXP: PAK_BE)
SRF_PAK2
1 SRF_PAK3
Livestock n
+ 30% + 30% + 30% n.c. n.c. + 30%
growth
+ 30% from + 30% from + 30% from
Livestock n.c. n.c.
2015 2015 2015
yield n.c.
+ 50% from + 50% from + 50% from
growth n.c. n.c.
2030 2030 2030
+ 60% + 60% n.c. n.c. + 60%
Food crop + 78% from + 78% from + 78% from
n.c. n.c.
yield + 60% 2015 2015 2015
growth + 90% from + 90% from + 90% from
n.c. n.c.
2030 2030 2030
Irrig effic n.c. +20% +20%
+50% gradually until
Storage
2050, total 5.3 MAF
Irrigated
n.c. n.c. + 25% n.c. n.c. + 25%
area growth
Rainfed
n.c. n.c. - 15% n.c. n.c. - 15%
area growth
n.c. = no change
11. Average Yield Impact, Alternative Adaptation
Scenarios, 2050, compared to CC Scenarios
Rice Wheat Maize Cotton
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
PAK1 PAK2 PAK3 PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4
Note: results are average of 4 CC and 1 noCC scenario runs.
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
12. PAK wheat trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
13. PAK rice trade, alternative scenarios (mmt)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
14. KCAL consumption in 2010 and 2050
(NoCC and CC scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
15. KCAL consumption in 2050
(NoCC, CC, and adaptation scenarios)
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
16. Adaptation for irrigation
Notes: IWSR values were averaged across four climate change scenarios and the NoCC case, for No
Adapt and the two water-based adaptation scenarios.
17. Conclusions
Climate change impacts in Pakistan affect crop yields
and food production negatively
Cereal imports need to increase significantly as a
result of climate change
Investments in agricultural research and water can
reduce the adverse impacts of CC
Under the most far-reaching scenario, combining
large investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation
efficiency, PAK could become a net wheat exporter
18. Conclusions
Irrigation water supply is relatively insensitive to storage
augmentation, in part as only 5.3 MAF is added gradually
over 40 years
The most effective water-based adaptation is to invest in
irrigation efficiency improvement, for which Pakistan has
great potential
Strong agricultural and water investments in PAK alone
can improve PAK calorie availability under CC and thus
help reduce malnutrition levels, but adverse CC impacts
drive up prices globally; thus caloric improvement remains
limited as higher global prices affect food affordability in
PAK as well
