1. Impact of Climate Change
on Water and Food in Pakistan
M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer
Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad
PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program)
1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity ,
Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’
Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012
2. Most Serious Climate Change
Concerns of Pakistan
The Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has
identified the following major concerns:
∗ Water Security
∗ Food Security
∗ Energy Security
∗ Vulnerability of Coastal areas
*Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct
2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.
3. Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan
∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from
Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf)
∗ Rainfall: 180 maf
Monsoon : July to September (80% of total)
Winter rains: December to January (20% of total)
∗ Groundwater: 50 maf
Source: TFCC, 2010
4. Implications of Climate Change on Indus
River Flows
∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the
next 50 years causing increase of Indus River
flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,
resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40%
over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006).
∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with
the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers,
not only the flows of Indus River System will be
reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will
also be changed considerably.
5. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
7000
6000
Discharge (Cumecs)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
May
Mar
Nov
Jan
Jun
Aug
Jul
Apr
Feb
Sep
Oct
Dec
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced5by 15% Source:
2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed GCISC, 2009
6. Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan
Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010
7. Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan
Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams)
Original : 18.4 MAF* (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)
Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
Present (2012) : 14.2 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
*MAF: Million Acre Feet
Source: WAPDA, 2011
(http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html)
7
8. Water Demand/ Consumption
Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025
Year 2004 2025
Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF
Requirement 115 MAF 135 MAF
(including drinking water)
Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF
Source: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission
9. Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan
Sr. Sectors Water usage (%)
No.
2000* 2010**
1 Agricultural 96 69
2 Industrial 2 23
3 Municipal 2 8
* Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007.
Country Paper Pakistan
** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)
10. Agriculture Systems of Pakistan
Total land area: 79.61 mha
Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total)
Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated)
Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated)
∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable
rainfed area
∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistan's food requirements, 2o%
of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population.
∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier
melt in the wake of climate change
∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity
and frequency of rainfalls.
11. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
∗ Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high
temperature)
∗ Loss in crop yields
∗ Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves
∗ Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive
growth stages)
∗ Increased evapotranspiration
∗ Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization,
Wind and water Erosion)
12. Future Food Demand by 2025
000 tonnes
Sr. Food Item Present (2010) Projected (2025)*
No.
1 Food grains 25,824 32,092
2 Edible Oil 2,256 2,803
3 Meat 2,935 3,647
4 Milk 15,900 19,758
5 Fruits 8,868 11,020
6 Vegetables 4,035 5,014
*Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits
were not considered.
13. Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan under A2 Scenarios
5000
4500
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
4000
3500
3000
2500
Base 2020 2050 2080
Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous
Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains
Source: GCISC, 2009
14. Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of
Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios
4400
4200 A2 Scenario
Rice yield (kg/ha)
4000
3800
B2 Scenario
3600
3400
3200
3000
1990 2025 2055 2085
Year
Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios
Source: GCISC, 2009
15. Simulated Crop Water Requirements
due to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature)
∗ Rice-Wheat System
Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for
rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto
2050).
∗ Maize-Wheat system
NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in
temperature.
∗ Cotton-Wheat System
NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature.
15 Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011
16. Conclusions
Challenges to WATER
Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of
HKH glaciers.
∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different
sectors
∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with
time
∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events
Challenges to FOOD
∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern
mountainous areas
∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events
∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes
∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration