This is the presentation I made at the Intersolar India 2011 Conference held at Mumbai, India(www.intersolar.in).

1. Will Thin Films win in India?
Madhavan Nampoothiri
December 13, 2011
Mumbai

2. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion

3. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion

4. Thin Films – From Niche to Mainstream
Global Thin Film market share
20% $500
-Thin film market share
increased when
18% 18% $450
polysilicon prices went
16% $400
up, and vice versa.
14% $350
13%
12%
13%
$300 - The decreasing price
10% 10% $250
differential with c-Si is
reducing cost
8% $200
8% competitiveness of TF
6% 6% $150
4% $100
2% $50
$70 $100 $250 $450 $70
$50
0% $-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Polysilicon spot price $/kg Thin Films % Share
Souce : Analysis based on GTM Research, iSuppli, Photon International and other sources

5. PV production – c-Si dominates
2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc)
CIS/CIGS Thin film Si
426 1,339
5%
-c-Si has large market share
2%
CdTe
1,438
- In thin films, CdTe is the leader
Super
6% -a-Si not far behind
Monocrystallin - CIGS is makings its presence felt
e Si
Standard
920
Crystalline Si
4%
19,768
83%
Thin Film capacity in 2012(MW)
-China has significant Thin Film 3000
capacity 2500
2000
-Europe leads in Emerging technologies 1500
1000
- a-Si leads in production capacity 500
0
CdTe CIGS a-Si Emerging
Source: GTM Research

6. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in
India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion

7. C-Si dominates in production….
• JNNSM target – 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022
• Local content requirement in JNNSM(Phase 1)
– C-Si : and Modules to be made-in-India
– Thin films: No import restrictions
• No local content mandates in state policies
• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW
• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW
• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible
– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar

8. ....but, Thin Film dominates in installations
Technology selection under JNNSM
120
Gujarat State policy
- 60-70% thin films
100
Installations in MS
80
60
40
20
0
Total IREDA NVVN
Type of scheme
C-Si Thin Films
-India bucks the global trend
- Thin films grabbed more than 60% market share

9. India – a good export market for global TF
companies
a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe
Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA
ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA
Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan
NexPower China
Schott Solar Germany
Sharp Japan
T-Solar Spain
Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India
-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share
- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, have seen lot of companies coming
-CIGS also has takers

10. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion

11. Growth Drivers
Technology
-Temperature
coefficient
-Spectral response
Cost
Financing
- Lower module - Ease of
cost financing
- Inexpensive land
through
EXIM/ECB route

12. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?
a. Technology
4. What could happen?

13. Thin Film Vs c-Si
Advantages Disadvantages
• Temperature coefficient • Conversion efficiencies
• Better performance under • Area requirement
diffuse light conditions • Higher BOS requirement
• Higher Energy Yield • Breakage
• Faster energy payback • Aging behavior not known
• Module grounding not • Materials shortage/toxicity
required for frameless
modules

14. Temperature coefficient – The TF USP..
Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures
14%
13%
12%
Cconversion efficiency
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Temperature(Deg C)
a-Si CdTe CIGS C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi)
- Efficiencies at STC(25 Deg C) is misleading, since that is rare in India
- c-Si loses efficiencies faster
- Higher energy yield during peak season

15. Spectral response - Another differentiator
• Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especially
junction a-Si
• Better performance under diffuse light Lesser shading effect
• Higher energy yield

16. The result : Higher energy yield for TF
Source: GTM Research
- TF consistently generating more electricity

17. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?
b. Costs
4. What could happen?

18. Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still
maintains some advantage.
Spot price(Euro/Wp)
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
Euro/Wp
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)
CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon
-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si
Source: pvxchange.com

19. Land and BoS Costs – Disadvantage for Thin
Films
• Land requirement higher for Thin Films
• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies
BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe
$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant Source: GTM Research

20. Operations and Maintenance – Higher cost
• More exposed area – more cleaning, more
manpower requirement
• More BOS ….
– More Strings
– More Fuses
– More cable
…..more breakdown possibilities

21. Still….
• Overall cost lower than c-Si
– Land cost in India is negligible
– Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price
– O&M Labor cost low
• Marketing mantra for TF
– $/kWh and not $/Wp

22. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?
c. Financing
4. What could happen?

23. Cost of Financing
• Project financing – very challenging to secure
• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-
balance sheet financing
• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates
• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9%
as against 13%+ for local financing

24. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion

25. Thin films domination to continue
• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted
– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan
– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films
• Gujarat – TF likely to dominate
• Rajasthan and Karnataka – TF likely to grab higher market
share than c-Si

26. c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus
• Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met
• Indian c-Si manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs faster
to remain competitive with TF
• Policy support critical to develop local PV manufacturing
ecosystem
• Rooftop policies could help c-Si because of limited space

27. Will TF be manufactured in India?
a- Si CdTe CIGS
Capital $ 2.92 Million / MW $ 1.46 Million / MW $ 2.02 Million / MW
Investments*
Project timeline 2.5 – 3 yrs 1.5 – 2 years ~ 2 Years
Cost Drivers Raw materials and Raw materials and Raw materials and
consumables, consumables, consumables,
CAPEX depreciation CAPEX depreciation CAPEX depreciation
* Excluding land cost
-Long lead times and huge investments are challenges
-Global excess production capacity is a major roadblock

28. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What could happen?
5. Conclusion

29. Takeaways..
• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian
developers
• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options
driving TF growth in India
• Local content mandates have had limited impact
• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s
solar boom…
• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet
to evolve

30. Conclusion
• Global market dynamics will have huge impact
on the technology selection
• If c-Si prices achieve parity with TF, c-Si will
become more competitive
• As long as land is cheap, thin films will rule in
India

31. May the technology with the best
$/kWp Win!!

32. Thank you
Madhavan Nampoothiri
Energy Alternatives India
Mob: 98848-29214
madhavan@eai.in
www.eai.in