This document summarizes operator plans for densifying mobile networks through 2028. It finds that both massive MIMO and small cells will be needed to handle increasing data traffic. Specifically: - Both macro cell upgrades using massive MIMO and more localized small cells will be required to boost capacity as data use grows exponentially. - Operators plan to greatly increase cell sites and antennas at all layers, with small cells growing even faster than traditional macro cells. - Creating an integrated "HetSNet" combining macro, small cell, and WiFi layers will allow higher overall densities while managing interference. - Key challenges include balancing capacity gains with rising costs, managing increasingly complex networks, and ensuring backhaul can

1. C A R O L I N E G A B R I E L
R E S E A R C H D I R E C T O R
M A R A V E D I S - R E T H I N K
A P R I L 3 2 0 1 4
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Operator plans for the ultra-dense
network

2. Agenda
© Rethink Technology Research 2014
 The drivers for densification
 More antennas or more base stations?
 Macro layer – Massive MIMO
 Small cell developments
 Hyper-dense networks – pros and cons
 Operator plans

3. Methodology
Top 40 cellco
groups
Number and
profile of cell sites
Data
requirements,
location, business
model, spectrum,
regulatory
Cell sites required
to be added or
upgraded
Equipment and
software deployed
2013-2018 + capex
Demand driven forecast
Primary and secondary data + modelling for each operator
Additional detailed survey
Vendor input on shipments and expectations
Forecasts by region, technology, equipment type, mode, spectrum etc

4. Drivers for density
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Massive increase in data
traffic
 Limited ability to cope
with traditional models
 Spectral efficiency
 Higher bandwidth
 Combined with cost
pressures
 Critical to reduce
radiated power – battery
life, not coverage, limits
usage
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$bn
Capacity investments Data revenues

5. Many tools are needed
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
New technology % required capacity
increase Y1
% required TCO
decrease Y1
% required capacity
increase Y4
% required TCO
decrease Y4
LTE upgrade 17% 14% 4% 4%
Wi-Fi offload 16% 20% 9% 13%
Public access small cells 14% 18% 24% 23%
Deconstructed RAN (RRH
and distributed antennas)
11% 17% 13% 17%
New or refarmed spectrum
and carrier aggregation
17% 9% 16% 12%
SuperMacro/LTE-A eg
MIMO, CoMP
14% 10% 18% 15%
Adaptive networking/SON 11% 12% 16% 16%

6. Densification: two layers
 Massive MIMO
 Large antenna arrays
 Advanced beamforming for coverage and mobility
 Extend performance and life of macro BTS
 Array gain + little interference
 Small Cells
 Low power, low cost highly localized access points
 Capacity and coverage, less mobility
 Higher cell density  smaller path losses
6

7. More antennas or more cells?
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
MIMO antenna deployments
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
units
MIMO Small cells
OR
?

8. Macro layer trends
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 One architecture is not
enough – MIMO and small
cells need each other
 Distributed architectures
 Virtualization
 C-RAN
 Phantom Cell
 SuperMacro
 Massive MIMO+ CA
 3D beamforming
 CoMP
 Macro layer densifies too, and
works with small cell layer
 eICIC
 MSA
 Some operators are ‘macro-
first’, but many advances look
forward to multilayer

9. Enter the HetSNet
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
units
C-RAN Distributed RAN Traditional Super Macro Small cells
Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growth
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

10. More cells in all layers
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Same x2 x4 x10
%ofrespondents
Macro Small MIMO
Increase in sites and antennas
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

11. Towards hyper-density
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Separate layer of small cells
 Spectral/spatial reuse
 Capacity/coverage
 Location awareness
 Wi-Fi integration
 Higher power first?
 How dense?
 Qualcomm Nascar
 Known benefits – but do they
scale?
 Scaling challenges
 Cost
 Backhaul
 Planning burden
 Interference
 New flexibility required

12. Enablers of density
Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Next gen SON
 True plug and play
 Next gen interference
management, eICIC
 Flexible cells
 Dynamic coordination
 pCell
 Cognitive radio
 Ad hoc viral networks
 Opportunistic cells
 Multiflow
 Indoor out, 4G homespots
 WiFi and WiGig
 Partners eg utilities

13. Harnessing new spectrum
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Importance of TDD
 Asymmetry
 Channel reciprocity
 Underused
 High bands – MIMO and
small cells
 Wi-Fi, WiGig
 LTE-U?
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
units
TDD FDD
LTE small cell metrocell growth
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

14. Barriers
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Diminishing returns?
 Chaotic capacity
 Network becomes
‘unplanned’ at one end,
massive management
challenges at the other
 Viral not optimal
 Plug and play vs fully
flexible
 Fewer cells under
operator control eg
homespots
 BSS/OSS/analytics
 Traditional concerns
 Cost factors
 Backhaul
 Scalability
 Devices

15. Operator priorities
Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Super Macro
Metrocells
Integrated WiFi
Virtualized core
Simple' LTE
Premier network priority (% of respondents)
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

16. The holistic network
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
 Increase in cells at all
layers
 Integration with C-
RAN, DAS etc
 Interworking
 Towards HetSNet
and the holistic
network
 ‘5G’?
The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS

17. Questions?
© Rethink Technology Research 2011
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