This document summarizes the progress and prospects of two challenges within the CESAR project. Challenge 1 examines the impact of climate and weather conditions on transportation behaviors. Research has found increased use of cycling and walking in milder winter weather, and more car use in hotter summers. The importance of urban heat island effects depends on season. Challenge 2 involves developing and testing a multidimensional planning support system framework. Preliminary tests found the current urban strategy contributes little and has scale and indicator issues not well suited to land use and transport planning needs. Prospects include experimental testing of strategies to improve planning processes and outcomes.

1. CESAR
Climate and Environmental change
and Sustainable Accessibility of the
Randstad
DBR February 2012
Prof. Martin Dijst
Faculty of Geosciences
Utrecht University

2. CESAR in a nutshell
Challenge 1
Challenge 2

3. Progress challenge 1
• Systematic and comprehensive
review of literature
• Incomplete and fragmented
KhattakandDePalma,1995
DePalmaandRochat,1999
Coolsetal.,2010
AaheimandHauge,2005
Sabir,2011
Mülleretal.,2008
Nankervis,1999
BergströmandMagnusson,2003
KilpelainenandSummala,2007
Richardson,2000
Wintersetal.,2007
HansonandHanson,1977
Brandenburgetal,2004
BrandenburgandArnberger,2001
Dwyer,1988
Keay,1992
Aultman-Halletal.,2010
PhungandRose,2007
Burkeetal.,2006
Ahmedetal.,2010
Guoetal.,2007
NikopoulouandLykoudis.,2007
Zachariasetal.,2001
Zachariasetal.,2004
Thorssonetal.,2007
Lin,2009
Thorssonetal.,2004
Eliassonetal.,2007
TuckerandGilliland,2007(review)
ChanandRyan,2009(review)
McGinnetal.,2007
SpinneyandMillward,2010
objective
subjective
absolute
relative
revealed/reported
stated
weather forecasts
adverse weather'
seasonality
precipitation
temperature
wind
perceived temperature
quantitative
qualitative
longitudinal
multivariate
crosstabs
climate regime equatorial
arid
warm temperate
continental
polar
NW-European
North American
Australian
Other
urban
rural
weekday/holiday
day/night/peakhour
hourly weather data
daily weather data
rural weather stations
urban micro climates
modes
•car
•transit
•cyclist
•pedestrian
•intermodal
destinations
routes
frequencies
departure times
distances
travel times
trip purposes
age
gender
education
income
household
car availability
health
travel attitudes
weather attit.
role of geogr. context degree of urbanization
resolutions
(Koppen Geiger)
Othermeth.
attributes
personal background
Meteorologicalattributes
parameters
Mobilityattributes
travel behaviour
Coverageissues
cultural context
urban or rural
HealthTransport Geography
temporal
Biometeorology

4. Progress challenge 1
continued
• Overall: increased
attractivensess of cycling and
decrease of the car
• Winter(milder and wetter):
growth in use of cycling and
walking
• Summer (hotter, dryer and
extreme precipitation): more car
and less use of active modes
• Sholder seasons: contrasting
results

5. Progress challenge 1
continued
• What is more important for
urban heat island effect?:
• Long wave trapping
• Short wave shadow effects
• Based on collected data in
Rotterdam and Weather
Research and Forecast model
(WRF)
• Effects depend on season:
• Winter: only long wave trapping
due to lack of incoming solar
radation
• Summer: both processes
Physical'mechanisms'
6/13*
Long*wave*trapping*
Night'8me'
Short*wave*shadow*effects*
Day'8me'
Which%of%the%processes%is%more%important%and%when?%

6. Progress challenge 2
• Developing and testing
multidimensional framework
• Aims of PSS
• Improving planning process
• Improving outcomes
• Experimental tests of Urban
Strategy (US)
• Preliminary results
• In its current form US
contributes little to the quality of
the process and outcomes
• Scale and level of detail not well
tuned to the demands of land
use and transport strategy
makers
• Kind of indicators not well-suited
for kind of questions
Title
Urban Strategy Experiment No1
Group 2(3 persons)
The second group consisted of three male urban planning
mobility studies. During the introduction of Urban Strate
legend that is used in the traffic intensity map. Anothe
borders of the model: what can(‘t) it do ?

7. Policy relevance
• Impact of microclimate on local
environmental quality
• Impact of microclimate on sustainable
transport modes
• Impacts on sustainable accessibility
• Integration of microclimate effects in
PSS

8. Prospects challenge 1
• Fieldwork to analyse interaction
weather conditions, individual
experiences and mobility
• Modelling morphology of cities and
urban climate

9. Prospects challenge 2
• Experimental testing specific
strategies to improve quality of
processes and outcomes of PSS
• Analysis of meaning of PSS at
various spatial scales and for
exchange of knowledge between
various type of actors