http://www.innovation-for-extremes.org

1. Cotton versus Polyester: behind the myths! Dr Robert Lomax Baxenden, a Chemtura Company Innovation for Extremes, Lancaster University, 6 th May 2009

2. textile life cycle natural fibres: - animal and vegetable - cotton – pros & cons synthetic fibres: - polyester – pros & cons example of greenwash - sustainability of cotton? effects of global recession Cotton versus Polyester: behind the myths!

3. Sources: 1. “The Fiber Year 2007/08”, Oerlikon Textile, May 2008 2. “The European Market for Polyester Fibres”, C. Purvis, PET 2008, Moscow, February 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli polyester (39%) cotton (35%) other vegetable (7%) Global fibre consumption animal (2%) other synthetics (17%) 2007 total: 78.4 million tonnes 10.9 kg/capita

4. World consumption by fibre type 1980 1990 2000 2010 polyamide acrylic cellulosics polypropylene wool Million tonnes cotton polyester By 2010: China will account for 56% of global polyester Rest of Asia 27% Sources: 1. “The Fiber Year 2007/08”, Oerlikon Textile, May 2008 2. “The European Market for Polyester Fibres”, C. Purvis, PET 2008, Moscow, February 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli 5 20 30 0 10 15 25 35 40 45 50

5. polyester – harsh, uncomfortable, environmentally unfriendly, because it uses a lot of natural resource (oil) for manufacture difficult to dispose of – does not rot in landfill, and produces noxious fumes when incinerated Neither set of statements is entirely correct – both fibre industries have made, and are continuing to make major improvements for their carbon and environmental footprints innovation is key to this! Myths – what myths? cotton – “soft, fluffy, natural, durable, versatile, comfortable, looks great and is environmentally friendly” But: cotton plants – tend to be hungry, thirsty, and infested with pests and diseases fibre, yarn and fabric processing – chemicals, water, energy, effluent cleaning and laundering – water and energy wasteful history of socio-economic issues

6. Textile life cycle petrochemical feedstocks natural polymers chemicals from biomass recycle items mothball incineration landfill reprocess items cradle grave yarns, fabrics chemical monomers different polymers finished garment or article storage and distribution retail outlet consumer use discard items or dispose

7. Textile life cycle petrochemical feedstocks natural polymers chemicals from biomass cradle grave recycling opportunities recycle items mothball incineration landfill reprocess items yarns, fabrics chemical monomers different polymers finished garment or article storage and distribution retail outlet consumer use discard items or dispose

9. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Announced by United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (UNFAO) on 22 nd January 2009 Strategy agreed by UNFAO in October, 2008 2009 is also the International Year of: Reconciliation Astronomy

10. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Announced by United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (UNFAO) on 22 nd January 2009 Strategy agreed by UNFAO in October, 2008 Follows on from 2008 – International Year of: the Potato the Frog Languages Sanitation

11. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Vegetable fibres Cotton Coir Flax Hemp Abaca Jute Ramie Sisal Main producers: mmmmmsee maps mmm Main properties: made from bark, stems and leaf sheaths: longer, stiffer and coarser fibres less suitable for clothing length up to 5 m; diameter 11-400 µm Main uses: carpets, rugs, doormats, furnishings – curtains, upholstery, wall hangings, lampshades tarpaulins, covers, sacks, ropes, twine, nets, paper making, reinforcing filler Annual fibre crop (tonnes/year) 3,540,000 (total)

12. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Vegetable fibres Cotton Coir Flax Hemp Abaca Jute Ramie Sisal Main producers: China, India, USA, Pakistan, Brazil, Uzbekistan Main properties: almost pure cellulose – very soft, breathable, high tensile strength - even when wet, moisture absorbent length 10-65 mm; diameter 11-22 µm Main uses: clothing – socks, underwear, jeans, T-shirts, coats, suits furnishings – curtains, bed sheets, towels, medical (bandages, sanitary) threads, canvas, sacks, papermaking Annual fibre crop (tonnes/year) 23,900,000

13. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Vegetable fibres Cotton Coir Flax Hemp Abaca Jute Ramie Sisal Main producers: India, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam Main properties: high in lignin – very stiff, higher tensile strength than cotton, resistant to microbes and salt water length to 35 cm; diameter 12-25 µm Main uses: sacking, brushes, doormats, rugs, mattresses, insulation panels, rubberised coir – car seats (especially European car models) geotextiles, twine, fishing nets Annual fibre crop (tonnes/year) 500,000

14. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Vegetable fibres Cotton Coir Flax Flax Abaca Jute Ramie Sisal Main producers: France, Belgium, Holland, China, Russia, Belarus Main properties: high cellulose content - crystalline stronger, crisper and stiffer handle than cotton but easily wrinkled length to 90 cm; diameter 12-16 µm Main uses: 70% used for linen outer clothing -good for keeping cool in hot climates furnishings – curtains, bed linen, towels, upholstery, interior decoration sails, tents, canvas, Annual fibre crop (tonnes/year) 300,000

15. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Vegetable fibres Cotton Coir Flax Hemp (h) Abaca (a) Jute (j) Ramie (r) Sisal (s) hemp abaca jute ramie sisal Main producers: mmmmm see maps mmm Main properties: made from bark, stems and leaf sheaths: longer, stiffer and coarser fibres less suitable for clothing length up to 5 m; diameter 11-400 µm Main uses: carpets, rugs, doormats, furnishings – curtains, upholstery, wall hangings, lampshades tarpaulins, covers, sacks, ropes, twine, nets, paper making, reinforcing filler Annual fibre crop (tonnes/year) 3,540,000 (total)

16. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 cocoons/kg (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg

17. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 2.5-12.5 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 cocoons/kg (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg Vicuna Camel underbelly fibre

18. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 2.5-12.5 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 cocoons/kg (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg Musk ox (qiviut) Merino ram Angora goat Cashmere goat Shearing a yak

19. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 2.5-12.5 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 cocoons/kg (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg before after! (4 times a year)

20. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 2.5-12.5 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg Sericulture employs > 1 million people

21. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 3-12 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg

22. 2009 – International Year of Natural Fibres Animal fibres Family Genus length diameter yield/animal Camel Alpaca Vicuna Cashmere Mohair Qiviut Yak Wool (merino) Angora Silk Camelidae Bovidae Leporidae Orycytolagus 5-10 14-16 1.5 Camelus 3-12 16-20 5-10 Vicugna 8-12 20-70 3 Vicugna 1-2 12-14 0.5-1 Capra 4-8 14-19 0.15 Capra 10-18 23-38 3-5 Ovibos 4-8 17-22 2.6-3.5 Bos 3 14-16 25 Ovis 7-18 16-40 10-18 Bombycidae Bombyx 500-1500 m 10-13 4,000-6,000 (cm) ( µm) (kg/year) cocoons/kg

23. UN International Year Series Some unlikely candidates! International Year of Coal, Gas and Oil Depletion International Year of Greenhouse Gas Emissions International Year of Man-Made Fibres, starring Polyester

24. diesel fuel gasoline heavy oil others kerosene liquid gas naphtha ethane Synthetic fibres from petrochemicals petroleum refining

25. diesel fuel gasoline heavy oil others kerosene liquid gas naphtha ethane Synthetic fibres from petrochemicals carbon, hydrogen oxygen, nitrogen, chlorine etc. energy

26. diesel fuel gasoline heavy oil others kerosene liquid gas naphtha ethane Synthetic fibres from petrochemicals oxygen, nitrogen, chlorine etc. energy carbon, hydrogen

27. diesel fuel gasoline heavy oil others kerosene liquid gas naphtha ethane Synthetic fibres from petrochemicals oxygen, nitrogen, chlorine etc. carbon, hydrogen energy

28. diesel fuel gasoline heavy oil others kerosene liquid gas naphtha ethane Synthetic fibres from petrochemicals 2008 oil production – 4,255 million tonnes 2008 synthetic fibre production – 40.4 million tonnes (polyester fibre accounts for less than 0.6% of oil production ) plus oxygen, nitrogen, chlorine etc

29. Rex Whinfield and James Dickson – pioneers of polyester in the 1940s Worked for Calico Printers Association, at Broad Oak Printworks Accrington, Lancs Patents taken out in 1941 and licensed to: DuPont - Dacron (in US only) ICI – Terylene (in the UK and rest of World) Fibre production started early 1950s One of Lancashire’s great inventions!

31. Polyester fibre: some relevant facts Both raw materials are currently obtained from petroleum ethylene glycol + terephthalic acid PET + water At present, no feasible route to terephthalic acid from renewable resources But ethylene glycol can be replaced by 1,3-propanediol to give the modified fibre poly(propylene terephthalate) or PPT This is available as Corterra (Shell Chemicals) or Sorona (DuPont) 295 Kg 790 Kg 1000 Kg

32. Polyester fibre: some relevant facts ethylene glycol + terephthalic acid PET + water The reaction is reversible, providing a route for reprocessing used polyester back into its starting materials, e.g. Teijin Fibers

33. Sorona (DuPont) PPT fibre based on 1,3-propanediol (34% by weight) this raw material is now available by fermentation of corn starch - Susterra ™ joint venture between Du Pont and Tate & Lyle – new $100 M plant opened, June 2007, 45,000 tonnes/year Sorona PPT aimed at apparel, carpet and automotive textile sectors http://www.tateandlyle.presscentre.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=578&NewsAreaID=2

34. Biomass supply chain biomass resources supply systems conversion process end use conventional forestry short rotation forestry sawmill products agricultural crops and residues oil-bearing plants animal products municipal solid wastes industrial wastes harvesting collection handling delivery storage biochemical thermochemical deoxygenation depolymerisation pyrolysis gasification hydrolysis fermentation transportation fuels heat electricity solid fuels renewable construction materials plant-based pharmaceuticals renewable chemicals & polymers

35. Fibres from renewable chemicals/polymers main biomass resources vegetable oil derivatives sugar derivatives Some examples of: Primary extracts: cellulose, lignin, hemicellulose, Chemical building blocks: glucose, sucrose, other sugars, lactic acid, glycerol, 1,3-propanediol, C 3 -C 5 acids and diacids (e.g. succinic acid) Primary extracts: triglycerides from e.g. palms, soya, rape, peanut, olive, sunflower Building blocks: glycerol, fatty acids (C 8 -C 18 ), fatty alcohols and esters

36. Fibres from renewable chemicals/polymers petroleum, natural gas hydrocarbon derivatives technology for existing fibre polymers modifications of existing fibre polymers completely new fibre polymers vegetable oil derivatives sugar derivatives main biomass resources difficult, but rife for innovation! e.g. PTT e.g. PET

37. Textile life cycle petrochemical feedstocks natural polymers chemicals from biomass cradle grave recycling opportunities recycle items mothball incineration landfill reprocess items PET bottles yarns, fabrics chemical monomers different polymers finished garment or article storage and distribution retail outlet consumer use discard items or dispose

38. Polyester – mechanical/thermal recycling remove lids and labels convert to fibre pulverise convert to yarn weave cloth finished product Mainly from recycled PET bottles: Collected at bottle banks, sorted by colour, crushed and baled Bales sent to specialist converters for cleaning and shredding into flake The PET flake can then be melt spun as normal In Europe, we recycle 35% of PET bottles. Global harvest is about 1.5 million tonnes 2008 was a bumper year – PET bottles were a cheap alternative raw material, because of high oil prices. Good exports to China Margins down 30% in 2009, due to lower demand

39. Polyester – mechanical/thermal recycling trouser suit (50 bottles per suit) – Debenhams, 2009 Synchilla ™ fleece jacket recycled PET flake Despite limited dyeability, 70% of recycled PET goes into fibre for carpets, insulation and garments Proportion of recycled PET in the article varies from 30-100%, but usually 50% minimum content Can be used on its own or blended, e.g. with wool or cotton for garments Examples: ECOPET ™ fibres (Teijin) Repreve ™ fibres (Unifi) EcoSpun ™ fibres (Wellman) Capilene ™ fabrics (Patagonia) ------ -– recycled and recyclable Polartec ™ fleeces

40. Chemical reprocessing – closing the loop Not all polymers are amenable Textile finishing auxiliaries (dyes, antistats, coatings etc) can be difficult to remove and complicate the procedure Potential candidates - Polyester – most suitable Polyamide 6,6 Polyamide 6 There are a number of collaborations already set up for these fibre types Textile life cycle yarns, fabrics chemical monomers different polymers finished garment or article storage and distribution retail outlet consumer use discard items or dispose

41. Teijin – ECO CIRCLE ™ technology Introduced 2000, now includes ECOPET ™ PLUS fibres ECO STORM ™ waterproof, breathable fabric (membrane plus other textile layers) February 2009 – announced its 100 th registered member: - 40% uniforms - 20% school gym clothes - 10% interior textiles - 10% bags and other items - 10% apparel including sportswear (e.g. Patagonia, Quicksilver, Swany) April 2009 – reprocessed fibre to be used for first time in tyre cord

42. Polyester reprocessing – other initiatives Requires minimum 50,000 tonne/year plant to compete with normal manufacture. Therefore, mainly carried out by existing PET producers Asahi Kasei – chemical recycling of PET bottles, fibres and fabrics to produce Ecosensor ™ yarns and Lamous™ microfibre and synthetic suede July, 2007 – Sympatex launches Ecocycle SL 2007 – Toray Ecodream project – aim to double sales of environmentally-friendly fibres, yarns, fabrics by 2010. Includes chemical reprocessing of PET and Nylon 6 2008 – Austrian manufacturer Backhausen launches range of chemically-recyclable furnishing textiles based on flame retardant PET, Trevira CS. Fabrics named Returnity™

43. Cotton fibre: some relevant facts

54. Cotton fibre: sustainable or not? Source: 1. UK ASA adjudication – http://www.asa.org.uk/asa/adjudications/Public/TF_ADJ_44113.htm 2. CCI/Cotton USA rebuttal – http://cottonusa.files.cms-plus.com/Events/CCI%20Web%20response%20to%20ASA%20decision-1.pdf 3. Cotton Inc statement – http://www.cottoninc.com/sustainability/United-Kingdom-ASA-Ruling/

55. Using “green” claims – caveat venditor! Source: 1. “Green Claims Code”, June 2000 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/marketing/glc/code.htm 2. ”Best Practices of ISO 14021”, http://www.ecodesign-company.com/documents/BestPracticeISO14021.pdf friendly kind clean safe with earth nature environment eco ozone sustainable green blue non-polluting zero waste zero emission ecosystem symbiotic compostable degradable designed for disassembly extended life product recovered energy recyclable recycled content reduced energy consumption reduced resource use reduced water consumption reusable and refillable waste reduction Avoid linking vague descriptions, e.g. Avoid vague use of terms, e.g. Terms defined in ISO 14021

56. Source: 1. “Environmental claims in advertising. Is green a grey area?”, ASA Event Report, 12 th June 2008 2. “Environmental claims survey 2008”, ASA Compliance Report, 23 rd October 2008 3. “A shoppers guide to green labels”, http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/pdf/shoppers-guide.pdf Greenwash in the UK 26 th June 2007 – ASA announces it will ‘get tough’ on advertising green claims 2006 – 117 complaints about 83 adverts 2007 – 561 complaints about 410 adverts 2008 (Jan-Jun) – 218 complaints about 160 adverts 23 rd October 2008 – ASA compliance report states 94% of adverts comply (??) 14 th January 2009 – latest ASA adjudication re. ‘sustainable’ (Renewable Fuels Association) 18 th February 2009 – DEFRA announces that it will update Green Claims Code Recent high profile offenders include: Shell Oil, Exxon British Gas, Lexus, Toyota, Volkswagen, Fiat, Ryanair, EasyJet, Eurostar, Tesco

57. Global fibre consumption 1960 – 2008 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 synthetic natural effect of recession??? (million tonnes/year) typical projections Sources: 1. “Cotton: Review of the World Situation”, Brian Moir and Alejandro Plastina, International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), 61-6, July-August 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli

58. Effect of recession on textile industry Sources: 1. “Cotton and Wool Outlook”, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service, April 10 th 2009 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli Indicator – US textiles and apparel net imports* * net imports = total imports – total exports 2008 - first net trade decline in more than ten years – 7% down 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3 6 9 end ( million tonnes/year) linen, wool & silk synthetic cotton

59. Effect of recession on textile industry Sources: 1. “Cotton and Wool Outlook”, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service, April 10 th 2009 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli Indicator – impact on India Then (2007) – size: second largest industry after agriculture provides 21% of total employment directly employs 33 million people , many on day labour indirectly provides a livelihood for a further 50+ million contributes: 4% of GDP 8% of total excise revenue 14% of total industrial production 50% of textile production exported (60% to EU, US, Japan) 17% of export earnings ($US 20.5 billion) outlook: rosy – job creation plans for extra 17 million people by 2012

60. Effect of recession on textile industry Sources: 1. “Textile exports to repeat 2008-show in 2009”, Newsline, Indian Textile Journal, April 2009 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli Indicator – impact on India Now (2009) – extra recession factors: rupee appreciating against $US during 2007/08 cotton increased in price (40%) during March-September 2008 (India now being undercut by cheaper producers like Bangladesh, Vietnam) interest rates increased, inflation reached 13 year-high of 12% industry hit by power cuts reduction in size: May-November 2008 – 700,000 job losses November-March 2009 – additional 1.2 million job losses outlook: not so rosy – export target of $US 40 billion in 2009/10 now rated “highly doubtful” – forecast has been downgraded to $US 23-25 billion

61. Effect of recession on conventional cotton Sources: 1. “Monthly Economic Letter: US and Global Market Fundamentals”, Cotton Incorporated, April 9 th 2009 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli Indicator – Major cotton economies China economic activity 2007 – 13% growth 2008 – 9.5% 2009 – 6.7% 2010 – 8% Cotton imports in 2008/09 – down 39% 2008/09 cotton production 2008/09 cotton exports China – down 3.2% India – down 72% India – down 7% US – down 8% Brazil – down 21% Uzbekistan – down 32% African zone – down 12% 2008/09/10 – US farmers turning to other crops cotton subsidies declining, market declining, prices declining better returns on food (wheat, corn, soya beans) and biofuel crops

62. Effect of recession on organic cotton Indicator – production trends and demand from partner “brands” 25 major partner brands account for 75% of organic cotton demand

63. Organic cotton fibre – production & demand 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 “ brand” demand production (thousand tonnes/year) Sources: 1. Organic cotton market reports, Organic Exchange, 2006, 2007, 2009 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli (projected) Partner brand: 2008 up 63% - $3.2 billion retail value 2009 up 28% - $4.0 billion 2010 up 33% - $5.3 billion ? Indicator – production trends and demand from partner “brands”

64. Effect of recession on polyester Indicator – effect on global chemical industry, especially polymers General comment – unprecedented decline in Q4, 2008 and continuing into 2009. Expected US downturn in petrochemicals 3-5% (conservative estimate!). Automotive sector 14-18%, construction 10% Dreaded words in industry! – overcapacity, consolidation, integration, restructuring, rationalisation, streamlining . Leading companies are: – r educing stocks, existing capacity, capital expenditure, R&D and investment – c losing plants, cancelling expansion – l aying off workforce (temporarily and permanently); 10-15% typical BASF, Dow, Novartis, Huntsman, DuPont, Celanese, Lyondell, Ineos, Arkema, DSM, Clariant, Akzo Nobel, Eastman, Rhodia, Sabic, Chemtura etc.

65. 90 Effect of recession on polyester Indicator – PET production versus global manufacturing capacity

66. 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (million tonnes/year) Sources: 1. “Polyester Global View”, B. Gladding, Technon OrbiChem, GSI PET Day, 2005 2. “The European Market for Polyester Fibres”, C. Purvis, PET 2008, Moscow, February 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli filament staple resin film other Effect of recession on polyester Indicator – PET production versus global manufacturing capacity global capacity overcapacity

67. Effect of recession on polyester Indicator – PET production versus global manufacturing capacity Market dynamics: Overcapacity – many plants running at 60-70% capacity against an optimum level of 90-95% China dominant – doing all in its power to maintain market share (ca. 60%) Taiwan and Korea – with huge polyester capacities, hardly compete Western manufacturers – ditto, closing or idling plants to reduce capacity Immediate outlook – low prices, low margins on standard products Innovation vital! Sources: 1. “Polyester Global View”, B. Gladding, Technon OrbiChem, GSI PET Day, 2005 2. “The European Market for Polyester Fibres”, C. Purvis, PET 2008, Moscow, February 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli

68. Indicator – Market dynamics: Overcapacity – many plants running at 60-70% capacity against an optimum level of 90-95% China dominant – doing all in its power to maintain market share (60%) Taiwan and Korea – with huge polyester capacities, hardly compete Western manufacturers – closing or idling plants to reduce capacity Immediate outlook – low prices, low margins on standard products Innovation vital! Sources: 1. “Polyester Global View”, B. Gladding, Technon OrbiChem, GSI PET Day, 2005 2. “The European Market for Polyester Fibres”, C. Purvis, PET 2008, Moscow, February 2008 Caveat: ‘ there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics ’ – Benjamin Disraeli Thank you!