The slides include an overview of the food security situation in Afghanistan.

1. Status of Food Security in
Afghanistan
PRESENTED BY:
Masaood Moahid MAJOR ADVISOR :
PALB 2110 Dr. T.N Prakash Kammaradi
SEMINAR TEACHERS:
Dr. G.S. MAHADEVIAH
Sri. HONNIAH
1

2. Seminar Flow 2
Introduction
Afghanistan
Food security & its four aspects
World food scenario
Major characteristics of food insecurity in Afghanistan
Physical availability of food in Afghanistan
Importance of wheat in Afghan food security
Inflation & consumers‟ price index
Food security by region and terrain
Food Security and Strategic Framework of MAIL
Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in
Afghanistan by USDA in 2011
Main causes of food insecurity in Afghanistan
Conclusion
References

3. Introduction
Years of political instability and war have led to high rates of poverty and food
insecurity.
Due to large fluctuations in weather and insecurity, Food production specially wheat
is highly volatile and the country is dependent on its trading partners to meet any
shortfalls.
According to the UNWFP, Afghanistan is among the world‟s most vulnerable
countries in terms of absorbing food price shocks.
Mountainous terrain and poor infrastructure, and ongoing conflict, have limited the
Afghanistan Government‟s ability to manage its food distribution and supply
networks.
Seasonality plays an important role in food security in Afghanistan.
3

4. Afghanistan
 The center or heart of Asia
 A landlocked country, making the trade
of goods difficult and expensive.
 Capital: Kabul
 Area: 6.5 lack km = Rajistan + MP
 Population: 33.4 millions (FAO Estimate
2013)
 More than99 % Muslim, some Hindu and
Sikh communities
 Main ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik,
Hazara, Uzbek
 Currency: Afghani (AFN) 1 Rs = 0.93 AFN
Latitudes 29° N and 39° N,
and longitudes 60° E and 75° E
4

5. Conti….
 It has rugged mountains and plains and is prone to natural
disasters such as earthquakes and drought.
 Temperatures are extreme, [(49.9 °C)- (−46 °C)]
 A highly mineral-rich country
 Agriculture - products: wheat, fruits, nuts, Saffron, onion,
cotton, wool, meat.
 Export commodities: fruits and nuts, carpets, wool, cotton,
hides, precious and semi-precious gems.
 Imports : machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles.
5

6. What is Food Security?
6

7. “Food security exists when all people,
at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food that meets their
dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life” (UN-
FAO, 2006).
7

8. The four dimensions of food security
Availability (physical
existence of food)
Access (To have sufficient
resources to obtain
appropriate foods for a
nutritious diet)
Utilization (has a socio-
biological aspect)
Stability (temporal
dimension of nutrition
security)
8

9. Figure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food Security9

10. Right to food is a human right
10

11. World Food Security Scenario
Worldwide around 842 million people are
chronically hungry due to extreme poverty.
17,000 children die of hunger and
undernutrition related diseases every day,
which equals 6 million children who die of
hunger every year.
The number is declining due to:
- increased economic growth
-the fall in international food prices since 2008
11

12. Table1: Undernourishment around the world, 1990-92 to 2011-13 (millions)
1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13*
World 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3
Developed
Regions
19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7
Developing
Regions
995.9 938.9 992.9 863 826
Africa 177.6 214.3 217.6 226 226.4
Northern Africa 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.7
Sub-Saharan
Africa
173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.6
Asia 751.3 662.3 619.6 585.5 552
Central Asia 9.7 11.6 7.3 7 5.5
Eastern Asia 278.7 193.5 184.8 169.1 166.6
South-Eastern
Asia
140.3 113.6 94.2 80.5 64.5
Southern Asia 314.3 330.2 316.6 309.9 297.7
Western Asia 8.4 13.5 16.8 19.1 20.6
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
65.7 61 54.6 50.3 47
Caribbean 8.3 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.2
Latin America 57.4 53.8 47.2 43.5 39.8
Oceania 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Source: FAOSTAT
12

13. Figure 2: (%) of undernourishment around the world
Source: FAOSTAT
%
13

14. MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD
INSECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN
 Food insecurity in Afghanistan is a complex problem with multiple
sources that reportedly affects over 30 percent of the population.
(World Bank)
 At the household level, food insecurity in Afghanistan is largely caused
by inadequate access to food.
 The lack of food has been the cause of food insecurity in Afghanistan
in times of drought and in isolated communities located at high
elevations during winter months.
 As of World Bank: “Even where household access to food is sufficient,
utilization of food and nutritional outcomes is inadequate.
 “access” can be broadly considered as the major or primary
characteristic of food insecurity in Afghanistan, but the “availability”
and “utilization” of food are also important factors which, depending
on the subject beneficiary population.
14

15. Physical Availability of Food in
Afghanistan
15

16. Table 2: Cereal Production in Afghanistan, Demand and Gap 2004-2012
(thousands of tons)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2004-11
(Av.)
Total Cereal production 3,057 5,243 4,447 5,443 3,860 6,333 5,726 4,444 4,819
Total Demand 5,717 5,866 6,018 6,175 6,500 6,630 6,410 6,340 6,207
Demand-Supply Gap 2,660 623 1,571 732 2,640 297 684 1,896 1,388
Self-Sufficiency Rate (%) 53 89 74 88 59 96 89 70 77
Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012)
16

17. Figure2: Cereal & wheat production and demand (000, MT)
Source: mail.gov.af (2012)
17

18. Cereal import dependency ratio
cereal imports/(cereal production+cereal import-cereal export)
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
Afghanistan 34.1 26.9 20.4 17.7 18.9 18.4 23.2 20.9
India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 36.6 28.9 21.0 18.4 16.8 17.2 25.6 32.6
Pakistan 2.1 0.9 0.8 2.3 3.1 3.0 3.5 5.6
Source: FAOSTAT
Table 3: CID ratio of Afghanistan and regional countries (%)
18

19. 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Afghanistan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Pakistan
19
Figure 3: CID Ratio, Afghanistan and Region (%)

20. Source: NRVA 2009
Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category
20

21. Average Value of Food Production
- The total value of Annual Food Production, by the total population.
- It provides a cross country comparable measure.
Source: FAOSTAT
21
Figure 5: Average value of Food Production, USD

22. Importance of wheat in the food security of
Afghanistan
Wheat is a key staple food in Afghanistan, accounting for more than half
the caloric intake of the population.
Afghanistan is not self sufficient in wheat. It imports wheat from a number
of neighboring countries but Pakistan tends to supply more than half of
these imports.
Afghanistan‟s food supply network broke down in 2008 due to shortfalls in
Pakistani and Afghan wheat production and Pakistan‟s bans on wheat
exports & it caused transitory food insecurity.
22

23. Afghanistan 170
Pakistan 106
Iran 160
Uzbekistan 164
Asia Region 66
Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Consumption
(Kg) Selected Countries and Asia Region
23
Source :FEWS NET, ‘Northern Wheat Trader Survey and Afghan Food Security, Bruce Schulte, 2007.

24. Table 5: Production Imports, Aid and MAIL est. Requirement of Wheat in
Afghanistan (000, MT), (2006-2001)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2006-11
(Av.)
Production 3363 4343 2767 5115 4532 3388 3,918
Imports 555 316 324 583 1,135 803 619
Food Aid ( Cereals) 84 174 212 218 82 Nil 154
MAIL Est. Requirement 4,820 4,917 4,722 5,260 5,231 5,163 5,019
Total Supply 4002 4833 3303 5916 5749 4191 4,666
Deficit as of Total Supply 818 84 1,419 (656) (518) 972 353
Deficit as % of Total Supply 20.44% 1.74% 42.96% -11.09% -9.01% 23.19% 7.57%
Source: MAIL (2012)
24

25. Figure 6:Production, import & food aid
of wheat
Figure7 : Requirement, T. supply and
deficit of Wheat
Source: MAIL
25

26. 26
Source: www.mail.gov.af
Figure 8: Irrigated & Rainfed Wheat Production in Afghanistan

27. Source: MAIL (2012)
Figure 9:Retail Wheat Prices in Afghanistan (USD $) 2006-2012
Jan. 2006 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12
Series1 0.28 0.274 0.76 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.43
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8AxisTitle
27

28. In Afghanistan wheat is a Giffen
and an inferior good, how?
Robert Giffen
28

29. 29
Figure 10: Afghan households spent more on grains and less on other foods as
wheat prices increased between August 2007 and September 2008

30. 30
Figure 11 : Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

31. Source: www.cso.gov.af
31
Figure 12 : Consumer Price Index (2005-06)-(2009-10)
Table 8: National Consumer Price Index, Annual Inflation Rate (%)
Items 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Overall Index 9 4.5 22.5 4.9 -4.5
Food 7.7 6 31.9 4.3 -9.1
Bread and cereals 8.1 4.8 52.3 3 -19

32. Table 9 :Average prices by quarter (AFN)
Fall Winter Spring Summer
Price of domestic
wheat flour per (kg)
18.09 23.51 34.19 36.51
Price of vegetable oil
per (kg)
64.81 76.93 88.9 91.7
Price of domestic rice
per (kg)
33.93 33.99 46.16 55.26
Price of lamb per (kg) 182.34 186.2 189.28 180.27
Price of milk per (kg) 23.44 25.66 27.23 30.75
Price of fuel gas per (kg) 43.15 63 46.83 55.48
Note: Estimated population weighted means. Prices in Afghani per kilogram
Source: NRVA 2007/08
32

33. Wheat Flour Price
Shocks and Household
Food Security in
Afghanistan by USDA
in 2011
33

34. Study Findings:
• Afghan households coped with the sudden rise in food prices by cutting back
on overall food consumption and, to a lesser extent, on calories consumed.
• Households were able to buffer the effects of the wheat flour price shocks
on calories consumed by changing the composition of their diets, moving
away from micronutrient-rich foods, such as meat, fruits, and vegetables,
toward grains.
• The decline in household food security was felt across both rural and
urban areas. Urban households made changes that led to large declines in
food consumption, but were able to maintain calories by greatly reducing
the diversity of their diets and buying cheaper foods. Rural households
made changes that led to smaller declines in their food consumption and
in the variety of foods they consumed, but relatively larger declines in
calories.
• As the price of wheat flour increased, demand for wheat products was
relatively steady in rural areas, but rose in urban areas.
34

35. Table 10: Population statistics by area and household type
National Rural Urban
Agricultural
Household
Nonagricultural
households
Nominal value of monthly per
capita total consumption (AFN)
19,25.60 1,675.50 2,931.47 1,752.20 2,159.44
Nominal value of monthly per
capita food consumption (AFN)
1,158.22 1,104.57 1,370.82 1,133.96 1,189.42
Food Consumption Score 60.95 59.58 66.46 61.59 60.07
Price of domestic wheat flour
(AFN per kg)
25.33 25.52 24.5 25.77 24.7
Price of vegetable oil (AFN per kg) 43.8 43.9 43.2 44 43.6
Price of domestic rice (AFN per kg) 37.2 37.2 36.9 37.3 37
Price of fuel gas (AFN per kg) 44.6 46 43.2 45.8 43.3
Note: Estimates are population-weighted means
35
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

36. Table 11:
36
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

37. Table 12: The impact of higher food prices on household well-being
Log real value of
per capita monthly
food consumption
Log per capita
calories availability
Log food
consumption score
Log per capita daily
protein availability
Log wheat flour
price
-0.202*** -0.070*** -0.102*** -0.249***
Std. error [0.021] [0.020] [0.024] [0.069]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R2 0.663 0.421 0.639 0.606
Notes: Each column represents a separate regression; OLS estimates are
population weighted. Robust standard errors -in brackets- are clustered by
stratum and adjusted for survey design.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
37

38. Table 13: Changes in expenditure shares by food group
Grain Meat Dairy Oil/fat Vegetable Fruit Sugar
Log wheat
flour price
0.191*** -0.032 -0.019 -0.031 -0.028 -0.07 -0.012
Standard error [0.011] [0.009] [0.007] [0.004] [0.004] [0.007] [0.002]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R^2 0.674 0.419 0.261 0.241 0.46 0.533 0.434
Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household expenditure share from the
food group listed at top of column..
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.
38

39. Table 14: Changes in calorie shares by food group
Grain Meat Dairy Oilfat Vegetable Fruit Sugar
Log wheat flour
price
0.042*** 0 -0.004 -0.017*** 0 -0.02*** -0.002
St. error [0.008] [0.002] [0.004] [0.004] [0.002] [0.003] [0.002]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R^2 0.324 0.289 0.287 0.241 0.26 0.233 0.234
Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household calorie share from the food
group listed at top of column. All control variables listed in table 4 are included in the regressions.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.
39

40. Food Security by Region
40
Figure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its Regions

41. 41
Figure 14: Food Security by Regions, Main Findings
Source: USDA, Economic Research Services

42. Food Security & Terrain
The prevalence of food insecurity is generally higher in mountains and
plateaus of Afghanistan.
people residing in mountainous regions of Afghanistan experience
much higher calorie and protein deficiency compared to those living
in lowlands.
Similarly, the population in the plateaus also experience higher food
insecurity outcomes vis-à-vis their counterparts who live in the plains.
The terrain characteristics affect food security outcomes by impacting
access to markets, transportation costs, and livelihood opportunities.
42

43. 43
Figure 15: Major Faming Systems & Food Security by Terrain Type, %
deficiency.

44. The most vulnerable to the high prices
of food in Afghanistan
Agricultural Labor in the rural areas
Poor in the urban areas
Children under five years
People over 65 years are the most food-insecure
Women
44

45. Economic Growth and Food Security
ChangeManagement:Coordination,
PolicyandPlanningRegulatoryFramework,
Capacitybuilding
Economic Regeneration: Producers organizations &
agribusiness, Credit, Value addition, Market linkages
Agricultural Production & Productivity: Ceareals &
Staples, Horticulture, Industrial Crops, Livestock products
Natural Resources: Land, Water, Rangeland, Forests, etc.
45
Figure 17 :Strategic Framework of MAIL

46. WFP Food Support Programs
1-Relief-General Food Distribution
46
Provision of relief ration to
people who suffer from
man-made and natural
disasters.
During 2006-2008, 21
percent of Government’s
overall food aid.

47. Food is given to the people as
incentive for their labor contribution in
building or repairing productive
community infrastructure such as
roads, bridges, reservoirs and irrigation
systems.
The projects are selected in
consultation with the local
communities..
47
2-Food for Work

48. FFE aims to bridge
nutritional gaps among
children and promote
school enrollment,
particularly among girls,
by providing school meals
and take-home rations.
48
3-Food for Education

49. FFT is designed to help the poor
acquire vocational skills.
The ultimate objective of FFT is to
improve economic and social
prospects for vulnerable members
of the community, particularly
women.
49
Food For Training

50. Table 9 : Number of Recipients/Beneficiaries by Program Activities (in,
000)
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GFD 1,138 765 1,240 1,400 1,800
Food for Work 271 642 859 4,400 1,500
Food for Education 1,972 2,203 2,228 2,800 1600
Food For Training 55 75 150 180 140
TB Patients 25 22 22 20 20
Source: WFP (2010)
50

51. Key Causes or Drivers of Food Insecurity in
Afghanistan
• Lack of employment opportunities
• Low wages and low household income
• Insufficient local production of wheat and cereals
• Declining livestock production
• Insufficient water resources for agriculture, i.e. drought
• Lack of access to and poor quality of drinking water
• Lack of education and health services, particularly for women
• Refugee and IDP migration
. Higher Population Growth
51

52. 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
1994-96
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
1999-01
2000-02
2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
2009-11
2010-12
2011-13
Population
AxisTitle
Population
Source: FAO STAT
52
Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)

53. In addition to the above, other comprehensive factors
operating in Afghanistan negatively impact food security:
• Conflict
• Isolation and Lack of Foreign Investment
• Loss of Export Markets
• Brain Drain
• Poppy Cultivation
• Environmental Degradation
53

54. Conclusions
54

55. References
D. S. ANNA, 2011, Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan,
Economic Research Services, USDA.
H. MALLETA, 2004, Seasonal Changes in Wages and Food Prices in Afghanistan, Ministry
of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Economy and the World Bank, „Poverty and
Food Security in Afghanistan: Analysis based on the National Risk and Vulnerability
Assessment‟ February 2012.
Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, „Agricultural Commodity Price Bulletin‟
selected issues.
Central Statistics Office (CSO), Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, 2012.
www.cso.gov.af
Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (2012). Statistics Division.
http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx
World Food Programme (2008) Food Security Overview,
http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/indexcountry.asp?country=004
55

56. 56
Discussion
Questions
?