Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011
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Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011 on web campaigning in the EP elections of 2011
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Web campaigning and European Parliament elections 2011. Presentation held at the European People's Party, Belgrade, October 2011
- 1. Mediated and networked politics Social media and the Internet as mediators between politicians and voters Presentation held at the EPP campaign managers meeting 20-21 October 2011 Dr. Maurice Vergeer Department of communication
- 2. Problems •Low and declining voter turnout •Little trust in politicians and politics
- 4. Solutions?
- 7. Pre-modern campaigns Tools Print media, rallies, meetings, foot soldiers Mode / style Labor-intensive, interpersonal, amateur Orientation to Mobilizing, voters = loyal voter partisans Internal power Local-centric distribution
- 8. Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns Print media, rallies, Broadcast television news, meetings, foot soldiers news advertisements, polls Labor-intensive, Capital-intensive, interpersonal, amateur mediated, indirect Orientation to Mobilizing, voters = loyal Converting and mobilizing, voter partisans voters = loyal partisans Tools Mode / style and floating Internal power distribution Local-centric National-centric
- 9. Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional campaigns Tools Broadcast television news, Internet, direct mail meetings, foot soldiers news advertisements, polls Labor-intensive, Capital-intensive, Capital-intensive, interpersonal, amateur Mode / style Print media, rallies, mediated, indirect marketed, targeted, continuous Orientation to Mobilizing, voters = loyal Converting and mobilizing, Interactive, voters = voter partisans voters = loyal partisans consumers and floating Internal power distribution Local-centric National-centric Local-/national centric, bifurcation
- 10. Party sites compared across countries Pippa Norris (2001) Web feature analysis •Information function •Communication function Developmental explanations • Technological development • Human development • Political development
- 11. • Kluver, Foot, Schneider & Jankowski (2007) • Web sphere analysis - Political parties - Labour unions - NGOs • European focus • Party sites were best equipped
- 12. • Advanced and extended replication of web feature analysis
- 13. Candidate websites European Parliament elections 2009 Sample: 17 countries • • • • • • • • Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia France Germany Greece • • • • • • • • • Hungary Ireland The Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Sweden United Kingdom
- 14. Methodology • All party and campaign websites • Random sampling of candidates with websites, but . . . • Always including the top three candidates per party • 288 party and campaign websites • 738 candidate websites • All websites were archived digitally • Elaborate coding scheme • Coding by local experts • Advanced analyses - factor analysis, hierarchical linear models
- 15. Four distinct dimensions of website features • Informing • Personal Reputation • Connecting & Sharing • Audio-visualisations
- 16. 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Informing Personal reputation Connecting & Sharing Audio-visualizations
- 17. ALDE EPP Information GUE / NGL Personal Reputation S&D GREENS / EFA Connecting & Sharing ECR Audio-visualizations EFD
- 18. Macrolevel explanation? Political systems variables •Fractionalization •Proportionalism •Voting system
- 19. Personalisation • Personalisation - Politician representing the party • Personalisation - Politician as a person
- 21. THREE DIMENSIONS OF PERSONALIZATION ON CANDIDATE WEBSITES •Professional •Home and Family •Personal preferences
- 23. ECR EPP S&D Personal preferences ALDE GREENS / EFA Personal favorites EFD Home & Family GUE / NGL
- 24. NEW ERA OF CAMPAIGNING?
- 25. Two new and related developments • Online political networking • Personalisation
- 26. Political capital online • Social networking sites • Microblogging
- 27. Social networking sites • • • • • • • • Facebook Twitter Bebo Hyves Youtube Flickr Picassa And many many more
- 28. Premodern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional campaigns Tools Broadcast television news, Internet, direct mail meetings, foot soldiers news advertisements, polls Labor-intensive, Capital-intensive, Capital-intensive, interpersonal, amateur Mode / style Print media, rallies, mediated, indirect marketed, targeted, continuous Orientation to Mobilizing, voters = loyal Converting and mobilizing, Interactive, voters = voter partisans voters = loyal partisans consumers and floating Internal power distribution Local-centric National-centric Local-/national centric, bifurcation
- 29. Pre-modern campaigns Modern campaigns Professional Personal campaigns campaigns Tools Broadcast television news, Internet, direct mail Weblogs, micro-blogs, meetings, foot soldiers news advertisements, polls social networking sites Labor-intensive, Capital-intensive, Capital-intensive, Low-cost, computer- interpersonal, amateur mediated, indirect marketed, targeted, mediated, networked, continuous Mode / style Print media, rallies, personalized, amateur Orientation to Mobilizing, voters = loyal Converting and mobilizing, Interactive, voters = Hyper interactive, voters voter partisans voters = loyal partisans consumers = interested, personal Local-/national centric, Local-/national-centric, bifurcation individual and and floating Internal power distribution Local-centric National-centric networked
- 30. TWITTER AS A CAMPAIGN TOOL
- 31. The Dutch parliament elections of 2010 Significantly larger implementation of Twitter as a campaign instrument
- 32. But … What does it do? Level the playing field? equalisation hypothesis or Nothing changes normalisation hypothesis
- 33. TWITTER ADOPTION RATE IN THE NETHERLANDS 2010
- 34. Twitter Several indicators Number of people following the candidate (followers) Number of people followed by candidate (following) Number of Tweets (number of original messages) Number of replies
- 43. Subscribing to Twitter • Party age is unrelated to Twitter adoption • Ideology is unrelated to Twitter adoption • Candidate rank on election list is related (higher ranked -> more adoption) • External shock is related: loss of seats if prior elections -> more adoption) • Internal shock (leadership uncertainty) is unrelated
- 44. Subscribing to Twitter • Male and female candidates adopt Twitter as likely • Younger candidates adopt Twitter more likely
- 45. The number of tweets • The longer a candidate is subscribed to Twitter, the more Tweets s/he sends
- 46. The number of followers • The older the party is, the more followers the candidate has • The higher ranked the candidate, the more followers s/he has • The more seats the party won in the last elections, the more followers the candidate has • Candidates from parties with leadership uncertainties have more followers • Candidates who are subscribed longer, have more followers
- 47. The number of following • The lower ranked candidates follow more other people on Twitter • Candidates from parties who lost in prior elections follow more others on Twitter • Candidates from parties with leadership uncertainty follow less others on Twitter • Longtime subscribers to Twitter follow more others on Twitter
- 48. The number of reciprocated relations (follower and following) • Candidates of parties that have leadership uncertainties have less reciprocated relations on Twitter • Longtime subscribers have more reciprocated relations in Twitter
- 49. Trends running up to Election Day MICRO-BLOGGING ACTIVITIES
- 50. Research questions 1. To what degree do candidates and the public engage in public discussions on the Web? 2. To what extent is do parties engage in online communications? 3. Do discussions take place within the boundaries of the party (i.e. many small ideological public spheres consisting of homogeneous networks) or are they crossing party boundaries?
- 51. • All candidates • All tweets in 40 days prior to Election Day • Inner circle All tweets of Twitter users that follow candidates • Outer circle Twitter users , not following candidates, but who can be (re)tweeted to
- 52. Findings • All messages: n=4,451,128 sent out by the candidates and the inner circle of the candidates • nearly half of all messages is undirected, i.e. sent to no one in particular. • About a third is sent to people on Twitter not following any candidates (i.e. outer circle). • Little over a sixth of the messages are sent to people following at least one candidate,
- 53. CDA PvdA SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HNL Partij1 Piraten 09-jun-2010 08-jun-2010 07-jun-2010 06-jun-2010 05-jun-2010 04-jun-2010 03-jun-2010 02-jun-2010 01-jun-2010 31-mei-2010 30-mei-2010 29-mei-2010 28-mei-2010 27-mei-2010 26-mei-2010 25-mei-2010 24-mei-2010 23-mei-2010 22-mei-2010 21-mei-2010 20-mei-2010 19-mei-2010 18-mei-2010 17-mei-2010 16-mei-2010 15-mei-2010 14-mei-2010 13-mei-2010 12-mei-2010 11-mei-2010 10-mei-2010 09-mei-2010 08-mei-2010 07-mei-2010 06-mei-2010 05-mei-2010 04-mei-2010 03-mei-2010 02-mei-2010 01-mei-2010 Number of tweets by politicians during last 40 days of campaign 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
- 54. CDA pvda SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HN P1 Piraten 09-jun-2010 08-jun-2010 07-jun-2010 06-jun-2010 05-jun-2010 04-jun-2010 03-jun-2010 02-jun-2010 01-jun-2010 31-mei-2010 30-mei-2010 29-mei-2010 28-mei-2010 27-mei-2010 26-mei-2010 25-mei-2010 24-mei-2010 23-mei-2010 22-mei-2010 21-mei-2010 20-mei-2010 19-mei-2010 18-mei-2010 17-mei-2010 16-mei-2010 15-mei-2010 14-mei-2010 13-mei-2010 12-mei-2010 11-mei-2010 10-mei-2010 09-mei-2010 08-mei-2010 07-mei-2010 06-mei-2010 05-mei-2010 04-mei-2010 03-mei-2010 02-mei-2010 01-mei-2010 120 Number of tweets sent to politicians during last 40 days of campaign 100 80 60 40 20 0
- 55. 50 Number of replies by politicians during last 40 days of campaign 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 CDA pvda SP VVD PVV GL CU D66 PvdD SGP NN TON MenS HN P1 Piraten
- 56. Candidates’ political blogging sphere COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- 73. • Only few replies • Little reciprocity in general • Reciprocity decreases when activity increases • Level playing field?
- 74. Conclusion • Social media’s success kills the social part of social media • Successfull candidates turn social media into mass media
- 75. So . . . … back to square one?
- 76. Thank you for your attention Maurice Vergeer Web: www.mauricevergeer.nl Email: m.vergeer@maw.ru.nl Twitter: @mauricevergeer
- 77. Sources • Hermans, L. & Vergeer, M. (forthcoming). Personalisation in e-campaigning Cross national comparison of personalisation strategies used on candidate websites in EP-elections 2009. New media & Society. • Vergeer, M. Hermans, L. & Sams, S. (2011). Is the voter only a tweet away? Micro-blogging during the 2009 European parliament Election campaign in the Netherlands, First Monday, 16(8). • Vergeer, M., & Hermans, L. (2011). New public deliberations. Twitter as a new campaign tool for public discussions. Paper presented at World Association of Public Opinion Research (Wapor). • Vergeer, M., Hermans, L. & Sams, S. (in press). Online social networks and micro-blogging in political campaigning: The exploration of a new campaign tool and a new campaign style. Party Politics. • Vergeer, M., Hermans, L., & Cunha, C. (forthcoming). Political parties, candidates, and Web campaigning in the 2009 European Parliament elections. A decade of cross-national comparative website-feature analysis • Vergeer, M., Lim, Y.S., & Park, H.W. (2011). Mediated relations: new methods to study online social capital. Asian Journal of Communication, October 2011 issue
- 78. • Vergeer, M., & Hermans, L. Campaigning on Twitter. Twitter as a campaign tool in the general elections 2010 in the Netherlands. (submitted for publication) • Kluver R, Jankowski NW, Foot K and Schneider SM (eds.) (2007) The Internet and National Elections. A Comparative Study of Web Campaigning: London: Routledge. • Norris P (2001) Digital Divide? Civic Engagement, Information Poverty and the Internet Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. • Van Os R., Jankowski NW and Vergeer M (2007). Political communication about Europe on the Internet during the 2004 European Parliament election campaign in nine EU member states. European Societies 9(5): 755-775.