Alan Avidan

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Social Gambling and Gaming Summit – Las Vegas, Dec. 2013

Gaining the Edge through
Predictive Personalization
-- Leveraging User Data to Raise KPIs --

Alan Avidan, PhD
CEO, Bees & Pollen

www.BeesAndPollen.com

Alan@BeesAndPollen.com
December 2013

Predictive Personalization
Social* + Behavioral
+ Session User Data

User DNA
Generation

Correlate & Predict
Best User Choices

Option A
Option B
Option C
Option D

* Social data contains customer experience, preferences, and trends information
Algorithms include Genetic, Artificial Intelligence, Decision Trees, Regression
December 2013
www.BeesAndPollen.com

Predictive Personalization

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Example: CTA Share Element – 3 Options
Option 1 (Default)

Option 2

Bingo by Ryzing

Element = Decision Point
CTR= Conversion
©2013 Bees and Pollen LTD

Option 3

KPIs
Monetization
•
•
•
•

Revenue
Profit
ARPU/ARPPU
%PAY

Virality
• K-Factor
• Invites/DAU
• Acceptance Rate

Retention
•
•
•
•

DAU/MAU
D1, D2, D7, D30
Visits/DAU
Churn Rate

Acquisition
• CPA, CPI
• Abandon Rate

www.BeesAndPollen.com

Engagement
• Abandon Rate
• Session Time
• Drop-off Rates

Traffic
• DAU/WAU/MAU
• # Concurrent

December 2013

Raising KPIs ≡ Raising Profit
• Requires:
Increasing LTV and/or Lowering UAC

• Requires:
Raising Conversions at Key Game Elements
• Requires:
More Attractive Choices at Decision Points
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

More Attractive Choices ?
• The Problem:
Players Have Different Choice Preferences
• The Solution:
Predict Each User’s Preference at Each Decision
Point, and Dynamically Adapt the Page
• The Technology:
Real-Time Predictive Personalization
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Basics 101

MAX (Profit)
Profit = (LTV – UAC – Opex)
LTV = Lifetime Value
UAC = User Acquisition Costs
Opex = Operating Expenses

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Increase LTV KPIs
1.
•
•
•
•

In-Game
Session Time
Spend Rate (or ARPPU)
# of Concurrent Users (or DAU)
%Pay

• Predict Payers → VIP Treatment
• Predict Non-Payers → Alt. Monetization
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Increase LTV KPIs
2. Off-Game
• Dx Retention
• Target Higher LTV User Profiles
(Example: Males, 40 and up, from North
America, College, interested in Travel and Cars)

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Decrease Acquisition Costs
1. In-Game:
• Amplify Virality  Retention Loop
2. Off-Game:
• Target Higher Viral-Active User Profiles
(Example: female, 25-40, interested in books and
music, with over 99 friends)
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Monetization - Payment Page

Slotolotto
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Option 2

Option 3

Option 4

Option 1

Engagement – Button Colors

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Send Gifts: Friends Appearance

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Payout (PARS Table)

Do Not Try This on RMG!

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Open Graph: Story Variations
Option 1
Competitive

Option 2
Achiever

Option 3
Social

Conversion = Friends clicking the link to get into the game
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Predictive Personalization
Drives KPI Lift

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Deep New Insights

www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

Gain the Edge
Raise Profit by Predicting and
Affecting Player Behavior via
Real-Time Predictive Personalization

www.BeesAndPollen.com

Please Don’t
Leave Money
on the Table!

December 2013

Thank You: alan@BeesAndPollen.com

Predicting Players™
www.BeesAndPollen.com

December 2013

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Alan Avidan

1. Social Gambling and Gaming Summit – Las Vegas, Dec. 2013 Gaining the Edge through Predictive Personalization -- Leveraging User Data to Raise KPIs -- Alan Avidan, PhD CEO, Bees & Pollen www.BeesAndPollen.com Alan@BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

2. Data is knowledge… Knowledge is Money.

4. Predictive Personalization Social* + Behavioral + Session User Data User DNA Generation Correlate & Predict Best User Choices Option A Option B Option C Option D * Social data contains customer experience, preferences, and trends information Algorithms include Genetic, Artificial Intelligence, Decision Trees, Regression December 2013 www.BeesAndPollen.com

5. Predictive Personalization www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

7. KPIs Monetization • • • • Revenue Profit ARPU/ARPPU %PAY Virality • K-Factor • Invites/DAU • Acceptance Rate Retention • • • • DAU/MAU D1, D2, D7, D30 Visits/DAU Churn Rate Acquisition • CPA, CPI • Abandon Rate www.BeesAndPollen.com Engagement • Abandon Rate • Session Time • Drop-off Rates Traffic • DAU/WAU/MAU • # Concurrent December 2013

8. Raising KPIs ≡ Raising Profit • Requires: Increasing LTV and/or Lowering UAC • Requires: Raising Conversions at Key Game Elements • Requires: More Attractive Choices at Decision Points www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

9. More Attractive Choices ? • The Problem: Players Have Different Choice Preferences • The Solution: Predict Each User’s Preference at Each Decision Point, and Dynamically Adapt the Page • The Technology: Real-Time Predictive Personalization www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

10. Basics 101 MAX (Profit) Profit = (LTV – UAC – Opex) LTV = Lifetime Value UAC = User Acquisition Costs Opex = Operating Expenses www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

11. Increase LTV KPIs 1. • • • • In-Game Session Time Spend Rate (or ARPPU) # of Concurrent Users (or DAU) %Pay • Predict Payers → VIP Treatment • Predict Non-Payers → Alt. Monetization www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

12. Increase LTV KPIs 2. Off-Game • Dx Retention • Target Higher LTV User Profiles (Example: Males, 40 and up, from North America, College, interested in Travel and Cars) www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

13. Decrease Acquisition Costs 1. In-Game: • Amplify Virality  Retention Loop 2. Off-Game: • Target Higher Viral-Active User Profiles (Example: female, 25-40, interested in books and music, with over 99 friends) www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

14. Monetization - Payment Page Slotolotto www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

15. www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

16. Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 1 Engagement – Button Colors www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

17. Send Gifts: Friends Appearance www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

18. Payout (PARS Table) Do Not Try This on RMG! www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

19. Open Graph: Story Variations Option 1 Competitive Option 2 Achiever Option 3 Social Conversion = Friends clicking the link to get into the game www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

20. Predictive Personalization Drives KPI Lift www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

21. Deep New Insights www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

22. Gain the Edge Raise Profit by Predicting and Affecting Player Behavior via Real-Time Predictive Personalization www.BeesAndPollen.com Please Don’t Leave Money on the Table! December 2013

23. Thank You: alan@BeesAndPollen.com Predicting Players™ www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

Alan Avidan

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