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THE GREAT LIE OF THE NEW
SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Jeff Ferguson // CEO, Fang Digital Marketing
AllFacebook Conference East 2012
THE LIKE IS A LIE
BEFORE I BREAK YOUR
HEART EVEN FURTHER…
A REAL QUICK INTRO ON BILL
JAMES AND SABREMETRICS
Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases
                     (At Bats + Walks)
$1,400,000
1,400




1,200                                     Regular Seaon Games Won
                                          Cost per Win


1,000




 800




 600




 400

                                                       $260,000

 200
        103                        103


   0
          New York Yankees               Oakland A's
THE ERROR OF CHASING THE
LIKE
“What is an error?

“It is, without exception, the only major statistic
 in sports which is a record of what an observer
      thinks should have been accomplished.

“But the fact of a baseball error is that no play
 has been made but that the scorer thinks it
                  should have.

     “It is, uniquely, a record of opinions.”

               -- Bill James, 1977
“The statistics were not merely inadequate;
                   they lied.

And the lies they told led the people who ran
major league baseball teams to misjudge their
   players, and mismanage their games.”

    -- Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball
“If I’d asked people what they wanted,
they would have asked for a better horse.”

              -- Henry Ford
Facebook Likes are the
    Website “hits”
  of the 21 st century.
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
   the system or flat out
   buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
   you compare similar
   numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
   core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
   the system or flat out
   buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
   you compare similar
   numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
   core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
   the system or flat out
   buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
   you compare similar
   numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
   core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
   the system or flat out
   buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
   you compare similar
   numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
   core metrics
ROI doesn't change with each
new media channel that comes
       on the scene.
ROI doesn't change with each
new media channel that comes
       on the scene.
THE REDEMPTION OF THE
LIKE
Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases
                     (At Bats + Walks)
OPS = AB * (H + BB + HBP) + TB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
               AB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
Avinash Kaushik - Digital Marketing Evangelist, Google
                http://bit.ly/UcTLCc
IT’S HARD NOT TO BE
ROMANTIC ABOUT BASEBALL
JEFF FERGUSON  CEO & Lead Consultant

    jeff@fangdigital.com

    @fangdigital & @countxero

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Jeff Ferguson

  • 1. THE GREAT LIE OF THE NEW SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS Jeff Ferguson // CEO, Fang Digital Marketing AllFacebook Conference East 2012
  • 2. THE LIKE IS A LIE
  • 3.
  • 4. BEFORE I BREAK YOUR HEART EVEN FURTHER…
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. A REAL QUICK INTRO ON BILL JAMES AND SABREMETRICS
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases (At Bats + Walks)
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. $1,400,000 1,400 1,200 Regular Seaon Games Won Cost per Win 1,000 800 600 400 $260,000 200 103 103 0 New York Yankees Oakland A's
  • 15. THE ERROR OF CHASING THE LIKE
  • 16.
  • 17. “What is an error? “It is, without exception, the only major statistic in sports which is a record of what an observer thinks should have been accomplished. “But the fact of a baseball error is that no play has been made but that the scorer thinks it should have. “It is, uniquely, a record of opinions.” -- Bill James, 1977
  • 18. “The statistics were not merely inadequate; they lied. And the lies they told led the people who ran major league baseball teams to misjudge their players, and mismanage their games.” -- Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball
  • 19.
  • 20. “If I’d asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for a better horse.” -- Henry Ford
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Facebook Likes are the Website “hits” of the 21 st century.
  • 27. 3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless Metric 1. It's really easy to game the system or flat out buy that metric directly 2. It's near worthless when you compare similar numbers 3. It doesn't tie back to your core metrics
  • 28. 3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless Metric 1. It's really easy to game the system or flat out buy that metric directly 2. It's near worthless when you compare similar numbers 3. It doesn't tie back to your core metrics
  • 29. 3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless Metric 1. It's really easy to game the system or flat out buy that metric directly 2. It's near worthless when you compare similar numbers 3. It doesn't tie back to your core metrics
  • 30. 3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless Metric 1. It's really easy to game the system or flat out buy that metric directly 2. It's near worthless when you compare similar numbers 3. It doesn't tie back to your core metrics
  • 31. ROI doesn't change with each new media channel that comes on the scene.
  • 32. ROI doesn't change with each new media channel that comes on the scene.
  • 33. THE REDEMPTION OF THE LIKE
  • 34. Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases (At Bats + Walks)
  • 35. OPS = AB * (H + BB + HBP) + TB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP) AB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
  • 36. Avinash Kaushik - Digital Marketing Evangelist, Google http://bit.ly/UcTLCc
  • 37. IT’S HARD NOT TO BE ROMANTIC ABOUT BASEBALL
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. JEFF FERGUSON CEO & Lead Consultant jeff@fangdigital.com @fangdigital & @countxero