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Optimising the Facebook Stack
Mat Morrison
Thursday October 6, 2011
Draft for Chinwag Insight: Facebook Marketing
How people use Facebook




                                           Ignore,	
  
         Login	
  to	
       View	
                           Leave	
  
                                           Like	
  or	
  
        Facebook	
         Newsfeed	
                       Facebook	
  
                                          Comment	
  




                                                                           1
How people use a Facebook Page (Client 1)

                                          ∑uwd     e     e    e
                                         edges e
                                               EdgeRank




                              See	
  Brand	
                                See/Don’t	
  
                                                        Ignore,	
  
                               Post	
  in	
                                    See	
  
         Like	
  Page	
                                 Like	
  or	
  
                                News	
                                       Future	
  
                                                       Comment	
  
                                Feed	
                                        Posts	
  


          Like source         First exposure           Responders         Ongoing Exposure

                                                             0.6%                  11%
                      36%


                                   99%

         0.6% attributed to       Estimate             Comments + Likes          DAU
          “on Page” Likes                                                      Total Fans
                                                             DAU                             2
How people use a Facebook Page (Client 2)

                                          ∑uwd     e     e    e
                                         edges e
                                               EdgeRank




                              See	
  Brand	
                                See/Don’t	
  
                                                        Ignore,	
  
                               Post	
  in	
                                    See	
  
         Like	
  Page	
                                 Like	
  or	
  
                                News	
                                       Future	
  
                                                       Comment	
  
                                Feed	
                                        Posts	
  


          Like source         First exposure           Responders         Ongoing Exposure

                                                             1.4%
                                                                                     21%


                      60%
                                   99%

           60% in-Ad unit         Estimate             Comments + Likes          DAU
         0.5% attributed to                                                    Total Fans
                                                             DAU                             3
          “on Page” Likes
Most people don’t visit the Page (Client 1)



                                              All Fans
                                              100%
                                              470K




                                              MAU
                                              53%
                                              250K



         DAU
         11%
          52K

                                              Daily Page Visits (Unique)
                                              0.3%
                                              1.4K
                                                                  4
Most people don’t visit the Page (Client 2)



                                              All Fans
                                              100%
                                              56.7K

                                              MAU
                                              99.7%
                                              56.4K




           DAU
         21.3%
           12K

                                              Daily Page Visits (Unique)
                                              2.1%
                                              1.2K
                                                                5
Response Windows (Client 1)

 50%	
                                                                                              •    80% of responses within 3 hours.
                           91.4%	
  
                                                                                                    •    90% within 6 hours
 40%	
  




 30%	
  




 20%	
  




 10%	
  




  0%	
  
           0	
     6	
          12	
      18	
       24	
       30	
     36	
     42	
     48	
  
                                              Elapsed	
  Hours	
  


                                 %age	
  responses	
             cumulaNve	
  



                                                                                                                                       6
Response Windows (Client 2)

 35%                                                           •    70% of response within 3 hours
                                                               •    85% within 6 hours
 30%



 25%            84%


 20%       69%



 15%



 10%



 5%



 0%
       0    6         12   18      24    30    36    42   48

                      % response        cumulative



                                                                                                     7
Activity by hour and day (Client 2)


            Posts by hour                   Posts by day
  50                             60
  45
  40                             50
  35                             40
  30
  25                             30
  20
  15                             20
  10                             10
    5
   -                              0
        0     6    12       18        Mon         Thu      Sun

                                                             8
How fan growth Affects Daily Active Users (Client 1)

                    90                                 600                                11.60
        Thousands




                                                             Thousands
                    80                                                                    11.40

                                                       500
                                                                                          11.20
                    70
                                                                                                               y = 1.6541x - 10.598
                                                                                          11.00                    R² = 0.59878
                    60                                 400

                                                                                          10.80




                                                                                ln(DAU)
                    50
  DAU




                                                                         Fans
                                                       300                                10.60
                    40

                                                                                          10.40
                    30                                 200
                                                                                          10.20
                    20
                                                       100                                10.00

                    10
                                                                                           9.80
                                                                                               12.50 12.60 12.70 12.80 12.90 13.00 13.10 13.20
                    0                                  0                                                          ln(Fans)
                         Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug


                    1% increase in fans leads to 1.65% increase in DAU
                                                                                                                                            9
                    (0.35% increase in MAU)
ImpacT of PosT FreqUency




                           10
What’s the impact of Post Frequency?


 Count of Post Frequency                    Weekly Post Frequency Trend
                                            25	
  
 90
            40%

 80

                                            20	
  
 70

 60   27%
                                            15	
  
 50                   23%


 40
                                            10	
  
 30

 20                               7%
                                              5	
  
 10                                    3%

 0
      0      1         2          3    4      0	
  
                  Posts Per Day                       Feb	
     Mar	
     Apr	
     May	
     Jun	
     Jul	
     Aug	
  
Impressions grow strongly inline with post frequency

              3500                                                                                     15.5
  Thousands




                                                                                                                                   y = 1.108x + 11.63
                                                  21                                                    15
              3000                                                                                                                    R² = 0.94383

                                                                                                       14.5
              2500                           17               17
                                                                                                        14




                                                                              ln(7-day rolling imps)
              2000
                                                                                                       13.5
                                                                         12

              1500                                                                                      13


                                                                                                       12.5
              1000

                                   4                                                                    12
              500
                                                                                                       11.5

                0
                                                                                                        11
                     Jan   Feb     Mar      Apr    May     Jun     Jul
                                                                                                              0   0.5   1    1.5       2     2.5        3   3.5
                       7-day rolling imps         7-day rolling posts                                                   ln(7-day rolling posts)




                                                                                                                                                            12
Reach grows with post frequency

 25%	
                                         -1.4



                                               -1.6
 20%	
  

                                                                   y = 0.4005x - 2.3461
                                               -1.8                     R² = 0.5301

 15%	
  
                                                 -2




                                   ln(reach)
 10%	
                                         -2.2



                                               -2.4
  5%	
  

                                               -2.6


  0%	
  
                                               -2.8
           Posts	
     Reach	
                        0   0.5   ln(posts)   1             1.5



                                                                                          13
..while unsubscribes increase

 250                                                        7.5


                                                                            y = 0.4594x + 5.5239
                                                                                R² = 0.57793
 200                                                         7




                                 ln(7-day rolling unsubs)
 150                                                        6.5




 100                                                         6




                                                            5.5
  50




                                                             5
  0
                                                                  0   0.5      1     1.5      2      2.5   3   3.5
          Posts   Daily Unsubs                                                  ln(7-day rolling posts)




                                                                                                               14
ImpacT of Fan GroWTh




                       15
Active Users increase with fan growth: Daily Reach
around 20% (Client 2)

        DAU	
  vs	
  Fan	
  Growth	
                                                                                     Fan	
  Reach	
  vs	
  Fan	
  Growth	
  
            20000	
                                                                                                          60%	
  
                                                                                                        70,899                                                                                                      70,899
            18000	
  
                                                                                                                             50%	
  
            16000	
  

            14000	
                                                                        51,508                                                                                                      51,508
                                                                                                                             40%	
  
            12000	
  




                                                                                                                 Reach	
  
  DAU	
  




            10000	
                                                                                                          30%	
  

             8000	
  
                                                                                                                             20%	
  
             6000	
                                          19,857                                                                                                         19,857

             4000	
  
                                                                                                                             10%	
  
             2000	
                       2,051                                                                                                            2,051
                  0	
                                                                                                         0%	
  
                          Jan	
     Feb	
   Mar	
        Apr	
     May	
         Jun	
      Jul	
     Aug	
                            Jan	
     Feb	
      Mar	
       Apr	
     May	
      Jun	
      Jul	
     Aug	
  

                                                      DAU	
           Fans	
                                                                                          reach	
          Fans	
  



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            16
Unsubscribes grow strongly in line with active users
(Client 2)

 700	
                                                                                      7

                                                                                                            y = 1.0593x - 5.1934
 600	
                                                                                      6                   R² = 0.93978



 500	
                                                                                      5


 400	
  




                                                                               Ln(Unsubs)
                                                                                            4


 300	
                                                                                      3


 200	
                                                                                      2


 100	
                                                                                      1


     0	
  
                                                                                            0
             Jan	
     Feb	
             Mar	
           Apr	
       May	
  
                                                                                                5   6   7   8       9      10      11   12
                                 7-­‐day	
  Unsubs	
       WAU	
                                            ln(WAU)




                                                                                                                                        17
So unsubscribes grow strongly inline with fan growth
(Client 1)

 250	
                                                                                                                    5.5
                                                                                                                                                  y = 2.2197x - 24.016
                                                                                                                                                      R² = 0.50316
                                                                                             467,512                       5
 200	
  



                                                                                                                          4.5




                                                                                                       ln(unsubscribes)
 150	
  

       288,631
                                                                                                                           4

 100	
  

                                                                                                                          3.5


   50	
  
                                                                                                                           3



     0	
  
                                                                                                                          2.5
             Feb	
     Mar	
     Apr	
            May	
           Jun	
            Jul	
     Aug	
  
                                                                                                                             12.5   12.6   12.7   12.8   12.9    13      13.1   13.2
                                           Daily	
  Unlikes	
               Fans	
                                                                 ln(fans)




                                                                                                                                                                                 18

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Optimising the Facebook Stack for Earned Media

  • 1. Optimising the Facebook Stack Mat Morrison Thursday October 6, 2011 Draft for Chinwag Insight: Facebook Marketing
  • 2. How people use Facebook Ignore,   Login  to   View   Leave   Like  or   Facebook   Newsfeed   Facebook   Comment   1
  • 3. How people use a Facebook Page (Client 1) ∑uwd e e e edges e EdgeRank See  Brand   See/Don’t   Ignore,   Post  in   See   Like  Page   Like  or   News   Future   Comment   Feed   Posts   Like source First exposure Responders Ongoing Exposure 0.6% 11% 36% 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes DAU “on Page” Likes Total Fans DAU 2
  • 4. How people use a Facebook Page (Client 2) ∑uwd e e e edges e EdgeRank See  Brand   See/Don’t   Ignore,   Post  in   See   Like  Page   Like  or   News   Future   Comment   Feed   Posts   Like source First exposure Responders Ongoing Exposure 1.4% 21% 60% 99% 60% in-Ad unit Estimate Comments + Likes DAU 0.5% attributed to Total Fans DAU 3 “on Page” Likes
  • 5. Most people don’t visit the Page (Client 1) All Fans 100% 470K MAU 53% 250K DAU 11% 52K Daily Page Visits (Unique) 0.3% 1.4K 4
  • 6. Most people don’t visit the Page (Client 2) All Fans 100% 56.7K MAU 99.7% 56.4K DAU 21.3% 12K Daily Page Visits (Unique) 2.1% 1.2K 5
  • 7. Response Windows (Client 1) 50%   •  80% of responses within 3 hours. 91.4%   •  90% within 6 hours 40%   30%   20%   10%   0%   0   6   12   18   24   30   36   42   48   Elapsed  Hours   %age  responses   cumulaNve   6
  • 8. Response Windows (Client 2) 35% •  70% of response within 3 hours •  85% within 6 hours 30% 25% 84% 20% 69% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 % response cumulative 7
  • 9. Activity by hour and day (Client 2) Posts by hour Posts by day 50 60 45 40 50 35 40 30 25 30 20 15 20 10 10 5 - 0 0 6 12 18 Mon Thu Sun 8
  • 10. How fan growth Affects Daily Active Users (Client 1) 90 600 11.60 Thousands Thousands 80 11.40 500 11.20 70 y = 1.6541x - 10.598 11.00 R² = 0.59878 60 400 10.80 ln(DAU) 50 DAU Fans 300 10.60 40 10.40 30 200 10.20 20 100 10.00 10 9.80 12.50 12.60 12.70 12.80 12.90 13.00 13.10 13.20 0 0 ln(Fans) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1% increase in fans leads to 1.65% increase in DAU 9 (0.35% increase in MAU)
  • 11. ImpacT of PosT FreqUency 10
  • 12. What’s the impact of Post Frequency? Count of Post Frequency Weekly Post Frequency Trend 25   90 40% 80 20   70 60 27% 15   50 23% 40 10   30 20 7% 5   10 3% 0 0 1 2 3 4 0   Posts Per Day Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug  
  • 13. Impressions grow strongly inline with post frequency 3500 15.5 Thousands y = 1.108x + 11.63 21 15 3000 R² = 0.94383 14.5 2500 17 17 14 ln(7-day rolling imps) 2000 13.5 12 1500 13 12.5 1000 4 12 500 11.5 0 11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 7-day rolling imps 7-day rolling posts ln(7-day rolling posts) 12
  • 14. Reach grows with post frequency 25%   -1.4 -1.6 20%   y = 0.4005x - 2.3461 -1.8 R² = 0.5301 15%   -2 ln(reach) 10%   -2.2 -2.4 5%   -2.6 0%   -2.8 Posts   Reach   0 0.5 ln(posts) 1 1.5 13
  • 15. ..while unsubscribes increase 250 7.5 y = 0.4594x + 5.5239 R² = 0.57793 200 7 ln(7-day rolling unsubs) 150 6.5 100 6 5.5 50 5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Posts Daily Unsubs ln(7-day rolling posts) 14
  • 16. ImpacT of Fan GroWTh 15
  • 17. Active Users increase with fan growth: Daily Reach around 20% (Client 2) DAU  vs  Fan  Growth   Fan  Reach  vs  Fan  Growth   20000   60%   70,899 70,899 18000   50%   16000   14000   51,508 51,508 40%   12000   Reach   DAU   10000   30%   8000   20%   6000   19,857 19,857 4000   10%   2000   2,051 2,051 0   0%   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   DAU   Fans   reach   Fans   16
  • 18. Unsubscribes grow strongly in line with active users (Client 2) 700   7 y = 1.0593x - 5.1934 600   6 R² = 0.93978 500   5 400   Ln(Unsubs) 4 300   3 200   2 100   1 0   0 Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7-­‐day  Unsubs   WAU   ln(WAU) 17
  • 19. So unsubscribes grow strongly inline with fan growth (Client 1) 250   5.5 y = 2.2197x - 24.016 R² = 0.50316 467,512 5 200   4.5 ln(unsubscribes) 150   288,631 4 100   3.5 50   3 0   2.5 Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 13.1 13.2 Daily  Unlikes   Fans   ln(fans) 18