Presentació per part de Sandor Szalai (Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

1. Cooperations on climate change
in the Carpathian region
Sandor Szalai
szalai.sandor@mkk.szie.hu

2. Location

3. National adaptation strategies in the
region (DAS, 2012)

4. Adaptation activities of the Carpathian
Convention

5. Environmental pathway of vulnerability and adaptation
Jacques Delsalle, Evdokia Achilleos, DG Environment, Unit D1 – Protection of Water Resources
Climate
Change
Ecosystem conditions
and supporting services
Impact on Ecosystem services
Provisioning
(Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel)
Regulating
(Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification)
Cultural
Economic impacts
Infrastructures and physical capital
(Damages, Losses)
Production and Consumption
(Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential,
Variability/disruptions activity)
Employment
Floods
Water scarcity droughts
Species phenology
Water quality
Forest fires
Soil degradation
Species distribution
Permafrost/ice melting
Social Impacts
Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity)
Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions)
Resource conflicts
Migrations
Social fabric
Governance
Greenhouse gases
concentration
Temperature (means &
extremes)
Precipitation
(means & extremes)
Sea level rise
Anthropogenic
Pressures
Land-use changes
Resource-intensive
Production/consumption
Demographic changes
Adaptive
Capacity
Cultural Capacity,
Technological
Capacity,
Financial
Capacity,
Gouvernance
Portfolio
Adaptation
Measures
Grey
Green
Soft
Tools
Knowledge Base
Indicators
Monitoring

6. Preparatory actions
• Three projects:
– Climate of the Carpathian region
– Integrated assessment of vulnerability of
environmental resources and ecosystem-based
adaptation measures (Service contract CARPIVIA)
– In-depth assessment of vulnerability of
environmental resources and ecosystem-based
adaptation measures (Framework contract
CarpathCC)

7. CARPATCLIM results
• High-resolution (10 km*10 km) freely
available databases
• Data availability on monthly and daily level
• Time frame: 1961-2010

8. Temperature and precipitation averages
(Lakatos et al., 2013)

9. Temperature changes, 1961-2010
(Lakatos et al.,

10. (Lakatos et al., 2013)

11. Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-20
(Lakatos et al., 2013)

12. Change of the annual precipitation sum
1961-2010

13. Change of the seasonal precipitation sums
1961-2010

14. Change in the number of wet days
1961-2010

15. Change in the number of days with
precipitation above 20 mm, 1961-2010

16. Change in the maximum daily precipitation
sum, 1961-2010

17. Seasonal temperature change for 2021-2050
compared to 1961-1990
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter

18. Winter
Seasonal temperature change for 2071-
2100
compared to 1961-1990
Autumn
Summer
Spring

19. Winter
Autumn
Summer
Spring
Yearly
Seasonal and yearly precipitation change for 2021-2050 and
2071-2100
compared to 1961-1990

20. IPCC, 2007

21. CARPIVIA Tasks and Outcomes:
• Integrated assessment & discussion of key of vulnerabilities &
adaptation measures, including cost-benefit analysis and
policy recommendations
• Data inventory & knowledge gap analysis (->framework proj)
• Web-supported information system
• Stakeholder consultation and cooperation with Carpathian
Convention
CARPIVIA runs until 2013. Partners: Alterra Wageningen UR
with ECNC, ECORYS, Grontmij and WWF-DCP
CARPIVIA project
Werner, 2012

22. CarpathCC framework project

23. The Carpathian Region

24. In-depth study on the key climate
change threats and impacts on water
resources
• Produce maps for projected floods, droughts and
changes snow cover
• Assess projected seasonal shift in water balance
and impacts on soils
• Assess the potential impacts of climate change on
the implementation of the water framework
directive and flood directive
• Assess the risk of landslides in relation to
changing precipitation patterns and flash floods
• Impact of changes in ecosystems and adaptation
measures on water resources

25. In-depth study on the impacts of
climate change threats on ecosystems
• Assessing the effect of pests and pathogens on the Carpathian
forests; climate change-induced increase in virulence; change in
distributional and outbreak ranges, and change in populations
dynamics of both resident and newly-emerging forest pests and
pathogens will be addressed;
• Assessing the effect of climate change on protective function of
montane and subalpine forests in the Carpathians;
• Evaluating the effect of management practices on forest
vulnerability to climate change, including expected adaptation
potential of forest management;
• Evaluating the anticipated changes in species composition of
forests, wetlands and grasslands, including climate change effect on
grasslands productivity

26. In-depth study on the impact of
climate change on ecosystem based
production systems
• Positive and negative climate impacts on
ecosystem services with specific reference to
multifunctional landscapes and grasslands
• Assessment of the vulnerability of the tourism
sector

27. In-depth study on adaptation
measures
• Ex post evaluation of adaptation measures
• Supporting costs and benefits studies
• Ecological networks and ecosystem
fragmentation
• Assessing and tailoring adaptation measures
for the Carpathian region
• Agri-environmental schemes and other farmer
support

28. Supporting stakeholder interaction
• series of stakeholder workshops will be organised
and managed using knowledge-based facilitation
techniques in order to generate: a) a number of
action scenarios in relation to the impacts of
climate change, based on key impacts and
assessments of vulnerability; b) generate a
number of adaptation options in relation to these
scenarios; c) evaluate the costs and benefits of
the options along with their feasibility; and d)
identify preferred options and adaptation
pathways

29. Integral vulnerability assessments in
focal areas
• Tatra mountain, including Zakopane
• Rodnei and Maramures
• Tarnava Mare area
• Irongate national park and foothills
• Bükk mountains

30. Climate Change adaptation WG at
Carpathian Convention
• Decision COP3/15 on Climate change of the
COP 3 of the Carpathian Convention: a
Working Group on Adaptation to Climate
Change under the Carpathian Convention has
been established

31. Strategic Agenda of Adaptation of the
Carpathian Convention (CARPIVIA, 2012, not accepted
yet)
• Background: Climate Change in the Carpathians , and What does
Adaptation Mean?
• The Issues: Impacts of Climate Change in the Carpathians
• Priorities for the Signatories: Policy Responses to create a Path to a
Climate-Proofed Carpathian Economy
• Carpathian Space: Naturally Adapting to Changes in the Heart of
Europe
• Improving the Information Base and Monitoring
• Coordination with the Danube, Tisza, Dniester processes
• Cross-Cutting Opportunities
• Opportunity for the EU Funds from 2014-2020: Steer the Region’s
Development Towards a Climate-Proofed Carpathian Space
• Actions

32. Conclusions
• High spatial variability of the changes
• The models may have problems with the
description of tendencies of some basic
climate elements
• Strong capacity building is requested
• Establishment/improvement of monitoring
and early warning systems
• Further research is needed, but on a more
coordinated way

33. Conclusions
• The observations have to be involve in the
adaptation measures
• Strenghten the adaptation research

34. Acknowledgement
• Author thanks to European Comission for
CarpathCC, which is supported by the EU DG
ENV Contract no ENV.D.1/FRA/2011/0006

35. Thank you for your attention!