1. Welcome to eBay‟s
2011 Analyst Day
Jennifer Ceran
Vice President Investor Relations and Financial Planning & Analysis
February 10, 2011
2. Forward-Looking Statement
This presentation contains non-GAAP measures relating to the company's performance. You can find the
reconciliation of those measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the appendix at the end of
this presentation.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements relating to our future performance that are based on
our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements
include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected future performance (including, without
limitation, projected financial and operating results for the company and its Marketplaces and PayPal
businesses), business strategy and plans, as well as anticipated developments concerning our business
and industry.
Our actual results may differ materially from those discussed in these presentation for a variety of reasons,
including, but not limited to, the after effects of the global economic downturn; changes in political,
business, and economic conditions; foreign exchange rate fluctuations; the impact and integration of recent
and future acquisitions; our increasing need to grow revenues from existing users in established markets;
an increasingly competitive environment for our businesses; the complexity of managing an increasingly
large enterprise, with a broad range of businesses; our need to manage regulatory, tax, IP and litigation
risks (including risks specific to PayPal, Bill Me Later and the financial industry); and our need to upgrade
our technology and customer service infrastructure at reasonable cost while adding new features and
maintaining site stability.
This presentation also contains product demonstrations, some of which are conceptual and may not be
developed or launched in the same form, with all of the same features or at all.
You can find more information about factors that could affect our operating results in our most recent
annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q (available at
http://investor.ebayinc.com). You should not rely on any forward-looking statements, and we assume no
obligation to update them. All information in the presentation is as of February 10, 2011, and we do not
intend, and undertake no duty, to update this presentation.
3. Agenda
Presenters Title
Jenny Ceran “Welcome and Today’s Agenda”
“eBay and the Changing Commerce
John Donahoe
Landscape”
Scott Thompson, Ed Eger,
“The Future of Payments is Now”
Sam Shrauger
Break
John Donahoe, Mark
Carges, Doug McCallum, “Reinventing the Shopping Experience”
Christopher Payne
Lunch
“Capitalizing on our Opportunities
Bob Swan
…3 Yr Outlook”
Senior Management “Question and Answer”
9. Consumers have a “store in their pocket”
Promotions & Loyalty
coupons
Mobile Self-scanning
eCommerce & self-checkout
Payment In-store price
comparison
Store location Shopping lists
10. “New retail” demands new ways to reach consumers
Sole proprietors
Small and medium
size businesses
Large merchants
11. Merchants of all sizes must reach buyers in new
ways and keep up with innovation
Sole proprietors
Multi- Millions of
channel buyers
Small and medium
size businesses
Global Pace of
competition innovation
Large merchants
12. Huge opportunity: Taking the “e” out of ecommerce
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
Online Online
4% 6%
Web- Online
influenced +
Offline offline
Offline 37% Offline
96%
2008 = $325B 2013 = $10T
Source: Forrester, Euromonitor and Economist Source: Forrester Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Intelligence Unit
13. The new retail future: our unique position
eBay
PayPal
Classifieds
Shopping.com
Mobile Apps
Buyers Sellers
StubHub
23. The evolving PayPal story
Unmatched competitive advantages
Significant runway in core business
Expanding opportunity ahead
23
24. On track to meet 2009 Analyst Day forecasts
2011 Revenue 2011 Segment Margin
$4.0-5.0 $4.2+ Exceed
18-20%
Billion Billion range
2009 Current 2009 Current
Analyst Day Trajectory1 Analyst Day Trajectory1
Forecast Forecast
1. Trajectory based on performance through 2010
24
25. Growth in Total Payment Volume (TPV)
TPV growing
3.0 times
faster than
online market1
$60 $72 $92
Billion Billion Billion
2008 2009 2010
1. Online market growth based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates
25
26. Growth in accounts and engagement
Active accounts1 Transactions per
In millions active consumer account2
70 81 94 11.5 12.2 13.5
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
1. As of December 31 2. Trailing 12 months
26
27. Growth in global presence
Total Payment Volume New active accounts
% of PayPal global total % of PayPal global total
United
45% 42%
64% 59%
States
55% 58%
International 36% 41%
2008 2010 2008 2010
27
29. Unmatched advantages
What we said at Analyst Day 2009
Internet Fraud
technology expertise
Closed-loop Global
data connections
29
30. Unmatched advantages
Where we are today
Pace of
innovation
Internet Fraud
technology expertise
Open Cross-border
platform business
Closed-loop Global
data connections
Digital wallet
30
31. Operating successfully in a regulated
environment globally
• Support for 190 markets,
24 currencies and 20
local language sites
• Global connections to
15K+ bank partners and
57 financial networks
31
32. PayPal‟s position in the ecosystem
Financial Internet
institutions companies
Payment
Telcos
startups
32
33. Delivering greater value to consumers
Multi-channel payments
Credit /
Loyalty benefits
Bill Me Later
Payment flexibility Global markets
Security Buyer protection
33
34. Delivering greater value to merchants
Multi-channel payments
Marketing /
Cross border
promotions
Higher conversion
Less expensive
& sales
Ease of online selling
34
35. Favorable global trends
$630B
$415B • Over 50% of Internet users
Global online
retail sales1 are in developing countries3
• eCommerce is 6% of retail
sales in the United States3
2.1B • 35% of consumers in Western
Europe will have mobile
1.7B Global internet internet access by 20133
users2
2010 2013E
1. Forrester and Euromonitor; excludes food/grocery and online travel 2. Forrester; 2010 & 2013 data is straight-lined from Forrester 2009 & 2014 estimates 3. Forrester
35
36. ~50 billion connected devices globally in 20201
Mobile phones Televisions
Video game
systems
eReaders
Navigation
systems Appliances
Computers Tablets
1. Ericsson forecast
37. ~50 billion connected devices globally in 20201
Mobile phones Televisions
Video game
systems
eReaders
ubiquitous
Navigation
systems digital wallet Appliances
Computers Tablets
PayPal seeks to enable payments across devices and channels
1. Ericsson forecast
38. Lines are blurring between online & offline
Online Offline
ubiquitous
digital wallet
Mobile
38
39. Connected devices will unlock retail sales
2010 Global Retail Sales1
$8+ Trillion
Just 1% of global
retail sales is
$80B+ in TPV
1. Economist Intelligence Unit
excluding food/grocery
39
40. How we will achieve our vision
Global
Marketplaces
Global Adjacencies
Merchant & Seeds
Services
40
42. Success across merchants & consumers
PayPal global share1
Key metrics 2008 2010
Active sellers 8M 9M
Merchant 18%
Active coverage 2010
accounts2 70M 94M
Transactions / 14%
active consumer 11.5 13.5 2008
account3
Consumer preference
1. Calculated based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later
2. As of December 31 3. Trailing 12 months
42
43. PayPal‟s virtuous cycle
Global
eCommerce
growth
Merchant
coverage
Increased
Increased
merchant
consumer
coverage and
engagement
penetration
Consumer preference
43
44. Continued strength in core business
Global
eCommerce
growth
Increased
Increased
merchant
consumer
coverage and
engagement
penetration
44
46. Penetration growing on eBay
PayPal penetration eBay Addressable GMV &
on eBay globally (%) PayPal penetration
2010
$25B
$19B
58% 69% 75-80% 85% 57%
2008 2010 2013E United States International
46
47. Merchant Services gaining volume & share
Merchant Services TPV
and % of total TPV1
62%
56%
49%
42% $125B+
35%
30% $56B
$40B
$30B
$12B $20B
$8B
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013E
1. Excludes Bill Me Later
47
48. Success across merchant segments
Share of PayPal
Sole proprietors merchant accounts1
Small / medium
businesses
Share of Global
Large merchants eCommerce1
1. Illustrative representation of size
48
49. Delivering value for all merchants
Merchant segment PayPal value to segment
Sole proprietors • Ease of getting and
selling online
Small / medium • All-in-one solution
businesses • Competitive pricing
• Fraud detection
• More payment options
Large merchants • Multi-channel payments
• Higher conversion rates
49
51. Serving the world‟s largest brands
PayPal # of top 100 PayPal large merchants
online merchants1
United 59
States
Retail
United 40
Kingdom
Germany 30
France 28
Travel
Australia 63
1. Internal analysis; United States count includes both PayPal and Bill Me Later merchants
51
52. Expanding our global footprint
Countries with increased local merchant
services presence in 2010-2011
Denmark
Sweden
Norway Turkey
Malaysia
Israel
Mexico
Brazil Singapore
52
53. Connecting sellers and buyers globally
Global Cross Border TPV
$14B $17B $22B $40-45B
2008 2009 2010 2013E
53
54. Continued strength in core business
Global
eCommerce
growth
Increased
Increased
merchant
consumer
coverage and
engagement
penetration
54
55. Engagement drives the business
Active accounts1 Transactions per
In millions active consumer account2
94 130+ 13.5 16.5+
2010 2013E 2010 2013E
1. As of December 31 2. Trailing 12 months
55
56. Improving engagement for consumers
• Specialized customer support
New to PayPal team for new members
• Updated online tools
• Growing coverage where our
Casual users consumers shop
• Offering Bill Me Later credit
during checkout
• Dedicated customer support
with “white glove” service
Highly engaged • Product investment
• PayPal Advantage program
56
58. Increasing value to consumers
Fill up your cart Checkout using Bill Me Later Receive your Bill … Later
Bill Me Later provides credit to consumers during checkout
Helps merchants drive sales and increase conversion
Helps PayPal drive consumer engagement and preference
58
59. Bill Me Later engaging eBay consumers
Lift on eBay average order
Source of new Bill Me
value when paid with Bill
Later accounts1
Me Later2
40% +25%
Accounts
60% opened
on-eBay
Accounts
opened
off-eBay
1. Q4 2010 2. Q4 2010; includes shipping and handling
59
60. Driving the core business
Merchant Coverage Consumer Engagement
• Penetrating eBay globally • Rewarding engaged consumers
• Strengthening relationships with • Increasing value delivered to
all merchant segments consumers
• Expanding our global footprint • Engaging eBay consumers with
Bill Me Later
• Growing cross-border trade
• Moving into new verticals
60
61. Significant runway in core business
PayPal global share1
20-24%
2013E
18%
Merchant 2010
coverage
14%
2008
Consumer preference
1. Calculated based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later
Source: Internal PayPal analysis, not to scale
61
63. The adjacent opportunities are immense
Point of sale1 2010 Global
Market Size
~$8T+
Credit2
~$5T+
Mobile
Payments3 Digital
~$180B Goods4
~$20B
1. Economist Intelligence Unit
excluding food/grocery
2. Nilson Report
3. Juniper Research
4. GigaOm
63
64. Bill Me Later (BML) synergies
• Improve customer economics
• Lower BML fraud losses
• Lower BML cost of capital
• Increase merchant coverage and
speed up merchant sales cycle
• Increase consumer engagement
and preference
64
65. BML increases spending & engagement
Average spend per Number of “engaged”
consumer after signing consumers after signing up
up for Bill Me Later1 for Bill Me Later1
+124%
+76%
1. Internal analysis on multiple tests groups each consisting of 5-10K US consumers who signed up for Bill Me Later in July 2010; Engaged defined as 13+ trxns in trailing 12 mos
65
66. Continue to grow Bill Me Later
Total Payment Volume
for Bill Me Later
$1.3B
$0.9B
2008 2010
66
67. Evolving key capabilities to accelerate growth
Proprietary Data Superior Insight Incremental Growth
PayPal &
eBay Data
Merchant Risk Modeling Underwriting
History Credit Engine Decision
Score
Transaction
Details
67
68. Global launch of Digital Goods platform
Digital Goods platform is a payment solution for digital media
(e.g. games, software, video, music, news, eBooks)
$3.4B in PayPal Digital Goods
TPV in 2010, up over
50% year-over-year
17 countries launched the new
“PayPal for Digital Goods”
product, with key merchants
such as Facebook
68
70. Rapid growth of mobile
PayPal Mobile TPV
In millions
$2,000+
$750
$140
$25
2008 2009 2010 2011E
70
71. Key priorities to accelerate mobile growth
Expand mCommerce products and market share
Increase global coverage
Availability across technologies and platforms
Evolve the mobile wallet
71
72. Driving innovation through open platform
Accelerating internal innovation
• Foundation for new products, services,
and markets
• Increased responsiveness to market
developments
PayPal
payments
platform
Enabling external innovation
• Global open payment platform
• Thousands of engaged developers
• Innovative solutions for changing
payments landscape
72
73. Lines are blurring between online & offline
Online Offline
world world
Mobile
73
74. PayPal powers the digital wallet
Traditional
wallet
Financial Ubiquitous
flexibility & access across
control channels
Financial connections
among individuals,
groups & businesses
74
75. How we will achieve our vision
Global
Marketplaces
Global Adjacencies
Merchant & Seeds
Services
75
76. An incredible future
Rapidly growing addressable market
Unmatched competitive advantages
Continued strength in core business
Expanding our business through innovation
76
80. What we said in March 2009 …
Transforming our Marketplace...
Fixing the foundation
Focusing where we can win…
Secondary market
Growing our complementary formats
82. How have we done?
2011 Revenue 2011 Segment Margin
Middle
$5-7 of
Billion range Middle
35-45%
of
range
2009 Current 2009 Current
Analyst Day Trajectory Analyst Day Trajectory
Forecast Forecast
82
83. Marketplaces mix shift...
2008 Q4 2010
Global
Revenue
Adjacencies Adjacencies
and Vehicles Fixed and Vehicles
Price Fixed
Price
Auctions Auctions
Adjacencies include Classifieds, Advertising, StubHub and other non-transactional revenue
84. The eBay Strategy
Improve Trust
Increase Selection
Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences
Market the eBay experience
Innovate for Customers
84
85. Driving Technology,
User Experience &
Innovation
Mark Carges
Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Marketplaces
February 10, 2011
85
86. Technology: Transforming the shopping experience
Culture of innovation focused on
customer needs
Tailored shopping experiences
across categories and devices
World class technology
organization delivering greater
innovation
86
87. That‟s great, but …
“Did you fix search?”
“Have you improved the
user experience?”
87
96. Highlights of key launches since March 2009
Fashion Shopping Experience, Fashion Outlet, Fashion Vault
Motors Parts and Accessories Shopping Experience
eBay Group Gifts Tell Us What You Think
Image Search and Visual Navigation
Fitment for Motors Parts and Accessories Instant Sale
Full Product-based Experience in MP3 Players, GPS, and DVDs
Greatly Improved Search Experience and Relevance
Expanding Coverage in Catalogs
eBay Buyer Protection eBay Garden
Simplified Selling, Tools for Large Sellers, Better Shipping Visibility
Deals: Daily Deals, Flash Sales, eBay Bucks, DealFinder
New Home Page Modern Site Design
eBay Top-Rated Sellers
Hands-down Leader in Mobile Commerce
96
97. Transforming eBay in 2011+
Search Catalog User Experience Platform
• Develop • Leverage • Transform site • Faster
search as catalog across experience innovation
competitive eBay
• Create more • Mobile: enable
advantage • Simplify tailored access
selling shopping
experiences
97
100. International: Large growth opportunity
eBay non-vehicle GMV eCommerce aggregate growth
(2010) opportunity, 2011 – 2015 (Est.)
190% Larger
$270B
38%
62%
$95B
US International
International US Source: Forrester and Euromonitor; excluding travel
10
0
101. Increased customer focus by categories
Passionate about shopping
in their category
Fashion Electronics Many shared requirements
such as easy finding &
trusted shopping experience
Some category-specific
needs, such as visual
browsing & size filters in
Home
fashion
10
1
102. eBay strategy is working in the UK
Improve Trust
Increase Selection
Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences
Market the eBay Experience
Innovate for Customers
10
2
103. UK: Greatly improved trust perception
Top-rated sellers are … leading to enhanced
increasing share of UK customer perception
GMV …
Video 30%
18% Top
Competitor
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 „09 Q4 „10
% of UK Core GMV NPS for Active Buyers
from Top-rated sellers
Source: Based on surveys conducted by eBay and a 3 rd party vendor
10
3
104. UK: Dramatic increase in selection
Significant pricing
and search changes
60%
25%
2007 2008 2009 2010
YoY Average weekly fixed price live listings in the UK
growth
10
4
109. Innovation in the UK with mobile
A new channel for our … very attractive to our
sellers … buyers
~260% YoY
Growth
Q4 '09 Q4 '10
2010 quarterly mobile GMV
10
9
110. Strategy driving share gains in the UK
eBay vs. UK eCommerce market
growth
19%
UK eCommerce
15% market growth
10%
8%
2009 2010
% YoY growth
Source: Forrester; market growth excludes travel
11
0
111. eBay EU plans: Building on UK Fashion
Applying recipe to other
From a step-change strategic verticals
in online fashion …
… to
Rolling out to Germany &
other European markets
11
1
112. eBay leadership in Germany
Unique Visitors vs. #2 Player
1.2x
1.3x
2.4x
1.8x
Source: Nielsen
11
2
113. Apply the strategy to Germany
Improve Trust
Improve Trust • eBay Buyer Protection
Increase Selection • C2C & B2C growth
Increase Selection • Brands4Friends
Develop Tailored Shopping
Develop Tailored Shopping • Fashion experience
Experiences
Experiences • Electronics experience
Market the eBay Experience • Retail positioning with
Market the eBay Experience integrated marketing
Innovate for Customers
Innovate for Customers • Mobile innovation
11
3
114. Foundation of trust in Germany
2010 2011 2012+
Higher seller standards
• Ramp Top-rated seller penetration
eBay Buyer Protection program
• Raise consumer understanding
• Further PayPal penetration
• Strengthen Buyer protection
11
4
115. Brands4Friends: Private Sales leader
NIKE MEXX
SAMSONITE BURTON
PUMA ORWELL
Over 600 direct brand Flash sales provides
relationships retail experience
Selection of brands sold on Brands4Friends.de; Source Brands4Friends.de
11
5
117. Deals program driving results
“Deals” driving velocity in … resulting in GMV growth
Germany …
+170% YoY
Growth
Q4'09 Q4'10
“Deals” GMV in Germany
11
7
118. eBay is building on its success in Europe
Extending leadership in UK
Employing strategy in
Germany
Competing in France & Italy
Increasing leadership in
Netherlands & Scandinavian
Positioning for growth in
Russia & Eastern Europe
11
8
119. Growth in Asia-Pacific region
Portfolio of
Korea: market leadership
marketplaces through Gmarket and IAC
Australia: strong business
exceeding market growth
China: leveraging exports
business for global customers
India: market leading position
with significant growth
opportunity
Rest of Asia: expanding footprint
through partnerships &
investments
11
9
120. Global Marketplace enables cross-border trade
~20%
of eBay business is
across borders*
*As of Q4 2010
12
0
121. Actively managing China & HK exports
Partner with China and Hong
Kong sellers to improve
buyer experience
GMV of China and Hong
Kong Top-rated sellers grew
by 33% in Q4 2010 YoY
Facilitate inventory sourcing
for Top-rated US sellers
12
1
122. Summary: eBay‟s international opportunity
62% of 2010 GMV international
Portfolio of market leading positions
eBay strategy customized by geography
Global Marketplace enables cross-border trade
Expanding within new geographic markets
12
2
127. 2010: Increased selection
Implemented search, pricing and format
changes to increase selection:
100M Items
35M Items
Jan „10 Dec „10
Listings in Core Search Results
12
7
128. 2010: Improvements driving conversion
Sold items accelerating
8%
4%
Q4 '09 Q4 '10
% YoY growth of US Sold Items
12
8
129. 2011: Executing on eBay strategy
Improve Trust
Increase Selection
Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences
Market the eBay Experience
Innovate for Customers
12
9
131. Trust: Results show it is working…
Trust: “Safe place to shop”
Improving
H2 ‟09 H2 ‟10 trust on eBay
67%
66%
63%
58%
Best in Best in
Class Class
Top buyers Top buyers
Based on surveys conducted by eBay and a Third Party vendor;
survey question :“[company‟s site] is a safe place to shop online”
13
1
132. Trust: Free shipping
Increasing Sales with Free Shipping
33%
5%
Q1 „08 Q4 „10
Percent of sold items with free shipping
13
2
133. Selection: Stimulate business selling
Top-rated sellers grew with market
+12% Growth
Q4 '09 Q4 '10
GMV for Top-rated sellers
13
3
135. Selection: Stimulate consumer selling
Increasing consumer engagement
Buyers who sell
increase value for
eBay
Average Buyer Average Buyer who sells
Customer Value for eBay
13
5
145. Innovation: Milo & RedLaser integration
Customers Increases selection through local options
Retailers Increases foot traffic and sales
14
5
146. 2011: Executing on eBay strategy
Improve Trust
Increase Selection
Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences
Market the eBay Experience
Innovate for Customers
14
6
147. Driving Technology,
User Experience &
Innovation
Mark Carges
Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Marketplaces
February 10, 2011
14
7
158. Marketplaces & PayPal have developer networks
Developer Network
Opened platforms to external developer networks
15
8
159. Merchant & consumer needs are changing
Consumers want… Merchants want…
• to find what they want • multiple channels
• when they want it • demand generation
• how they want it • fast innovation
Anywhere, anytime Without complexity
15
9
164. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
165. What we said … Analyst Day Mar‟09
Our aspiration for 2011
Revenue
Goal $10 - $12 B
2011
EPS CAGR Mid-single
2009 - 2011 digit
Free Cash
Flow $6 to 7 billion
2009 - 2011
166. What we said … Analyst Day Mar‟09
$4 - $5B $5 - $7B
Revenue
High growth &
Grow at ecommerce $1B+
rates in‟10, faster in Hyper growth
gaining share ‟11
Key On-eBay Fixed price,
penetration, Users
growth Merchant Advertising, activity
services, Classifieds,
driver BML, Mobile Buyer retention monetization
Direct 18% to 35% to 18% to
segment
margin* 20% 45% 20%
* As of March 2009: Direct segment margin does not include ~3-4 points of corporate overhead
167. Achieving full potential requires… Excellence
What we said … Operational
Operating $2B over 3 Significant
smarter years investment
Customer
Lower Customer loyalty
retention /
retention / loyalty
processing costs ...lower take rate
User experience /
Improved search / platform
customer
experience
Improved trust /
Organization comprehension
simplification
168. On track to deliver …
13-14%
Revenue* REVENUE CAGR
$10.3B – $10.6B
$9.2B
$8.1B
$3.4B
PayPal $2.8B
Marketplaces $5.3B $5.7B
2009 2010 2011 Guidance (Jan 19, 2011)
Non-GAAP
$1.47 $1.73 $1.90-$1.95
EPS*
14-15%
Op Margin* 29.5% 29.5% ~ flat Y/Y EPS CAGR
* Ex Skype; reconciliation in appendix
169. On track to deliver OE cost savings …
Cost Savings Achieved... ... while reinvesting wisely
~$1.0B A lower take rate... Align with
our sellers
$0.8B
More R&D... Accelerating the
$0.6B
rate of innovation
A more trusted experience...
eBay / PayPal protections
More loyal customers... Less
churn
2009 2010 2011 Est.
170. … on track to deliver ... FCF
... cumulative free cash flows > $6.5B
2011 Est. > $2.3B+
2010 $2.0B Reduced by
~$350M
one-time tax
payments
2009 $2.3B
*Reconciliation in appendix
171. ... On track to deliver ... portfolio
... a stronger, more focused portfolio
Sold 70% of Skype... …Strengthened core businesses
~ $2B Proceeds ~ $2.7B
dba/BilBasen/
Brands4Friends…
Alternative formats
Gmarket…
expand Asia
Reinvested presence
BML
…extend
PayPal reach
172. ... we have an increasingly diverse portfolio
By Format... ... By Geography
2010 Revenue
PP on Asia
Auctions eBay 15%
Americas
Marketplaces Merchant 49%
Services
Europe
Fixed
36%
Price
PayPal
Adjacencies/
Seeds
Marketplaces
Adjacencies/
Seeds
173. ... and market trends are in our favor ...
Market growth rates... The lines of commerce Consumers can shop
accelerating! are blurring anywhere all the time
Web-
• On and off-line
influenced
~15% offline Offline • Many devices
CAGR 37% 57%
• All geographies
Online
Last ~3 years Next ~3 years 6%
... Sellers/merchants
Global eCommerce Y/Y* eCommerce + retail**
need help navigating
* Global eCommerce growth estimates, Forrester
and Euromonitor, excludes online travel ** 2010 US forecast, Forrester Research
174. As we enter 2011 …
We feel good about where we are:
Improving macro picture ... Expanding market
opportunity
A stronger, more diverse portfolio... And a
massive global footprint
Stable “Core”... “Adjacencies” with scale...
Seeds” with possibilities
Ops Excellence... The way we work
Excellent balance sheet
... See enormous opportunity ahead
175. ... and we recognize the concerns
Increasing competition ... in both e-commerce &
payments ... US & Intl.
The Core eBay ... bridging gap to competition
without end-to-end control
Evolving regulatory framework ... Durbin ...
PayPal margin implications
Growing cash balance... What will you do
... We are confident in our plans !!
176. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
177. Our framework for growth ...
Protect and Expand Plant and
Extend our “Adjacencies” Grow “Seeds”
“Core”
Businesses
...Leverage our platform...
and balance sheet
178. Our framework for execution ...
Operating $1B+ over next 3 Significant
smarter years (2011-2013) investment
Lower Increased
processing consumer
costs / fraud engagement
Better customer
experience ... Improved
Fewer defects customer
experience...
more outbound
Scale...
Accelerate
leverage
innovation ...
more product
179. Our framework for capital allocation ...
Redistribute
Strategic Excess Cash
Organic Acquisitions/ Redistribute
Investment Investments Cash
~Buyback
~
Strengthen our
Offset comp-based
Fund BML growth portfolio... extend our
dilution
reach
... while maintaining financial flexibility !!
180. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
181. Framework for growth …
PayPal global share* *
PayPal global share
Follow our merchants... 20-24% our customers
... and
2013E
2013E 20-24%
Local
Merchant coverage
Offline... Merchant coverage 2010 18% Social
Point 18%
Of Sale 2010
14%
2008
14%
2008
Consumer Consumer
preference preference
Credit Digital Mobile P2P
Accelerate
the rate of
innovation
Platform X ... Seeds
* Internal analysis; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later
181
182. What do you have to believe ...
Revenue Low
CAGR %
Mid-high
~21% ~24%+
$6 - 7B
~35% ~40%+
Seeds
Seeds ... Credit /
$3.4B Credit
Other
~25% ~30%+
Adjacencies... Merchant Services
Merchant Services
Core ... On eBay
~7% ~9%+
2010 2013 Est.
182
183. Growth on eBay ...
A $40B+ TPV Platform in 2013*…
…Increased penetration*
Stable aGMV growth…
Americas ~85%... stable
mid-high
single digits
Europe >60%... + ~10 pts
Asia >80%... stable
Cross
Border >80%... + ~5 pts
Trade
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E
… ~75%+ penetration !!*
* Company projections
183
184. Merchant Services momentum continues ...
A $125B+ TPV Platform in 2013*…
CAGR %**
PayPal global share**
Market/SSS Growth… ~ 10-15%
2013E 20-24%
Seeds
Merchant coverage
Increased Coverage… ~ 5-10%
Credit
18%
2010
Increased Consumer ~ 10-15%
Frequency…
14%
2008 ~ 25-40%
Consumer
preference
* 2010 to 2013 CAGR: company projections
**Internal analysis; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later
184
185. New products gain momentum ...
Credit/BML Digital Goods Mobile
Revenues nTPV nTPV
10X+
3X+ 3X+
2010 2013 Est. 2010 2013 Est. 2010 2013 Est.
186. ... and Platform expands opportunities
Developer platform Enables opportunities Enables opportunities
accelerates time to we would never we don’t do…
market… think of…
• 60k developers ...
1,500 apps
• Innovative solutions
for changing payments
landscape
187. PayPal‟s business model …
Great proposition Consumer Funding
Risk management
for merchants Choice
(Transaction losses)
(Global take rate) (Transaction Expense)
'08 '09 '10 Future* '08 '09 '10 Future* '08 '09 '10 Future*
Stable / down declines stable / down
... ~60%+ transaction margin business*
* Company projections
188. OE improves customer experience ...
Consumer Engagement Our Contact/Ops ... Our Product
... Merchant Adoption Center... Development cycle
(Sales & Marketing % Revenue) (% of Revenue) (% of Revenue)
~11% ~8%
~10%
Outbound Innovate
Responsive
Responsive Sustain/
Maintain
2010 Future* 2010 Future * 2010 Future*
Creates capacity to invest ... and drives operating
leverage/efficiency
* Company projections
190. In summary, PayPal 2013 outlook
$6 - $7B
Revenue (mid-point CAGR: 24%)
High growth &
gaining share
Consumer
Preferences,
Key growth drivers Merchant coverage;
New Products
New Markets
Direct segment margin* 24% to 26%
*Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
191. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
192. Framework for growth ...
The core platform...
New formats New markets
Existing: New:
Advertising, Local,
Classifieds, Social
Private sale,
StubHub
Technology Tailored Engagement Trust
User Shopping Customer Accelerate
experience Experiences focus the rate of
innovation
Platform... mobile
193. What do you have to believe ...
Revenue CAGR %
Low Mid-High
~7% ~10%+
$7-8B
Seeds
$5.7B ~12% ~15%+
Credit
Adjacent formats /
Seeds*
eBay Platform** ~5% ~7%+
GMV
2010 2013 Est.
* Classifieds, Advertising, StubHub, Shopping.com, Rent.com, other
** GMV-based transactional business, excluding StubHub
194. The Core... a ~$75B+* GMV platform in „13
The widest selection... The best deals... A trusted experience
Fixed Price ... Auction stable ... ... Vehicles format
expands... shift
Double
digit
CAGR Flat ...
'09 '10 '13 E '09 '10 '13 E '09 '10 '13 E
From 50% to ~70% From 50% to ~30% Shifting from GMV to
of GMV... ** of GMV...** lead gen model **
Note: All GMV figures are FX-neutral
*Company projections
**Growth rates are 2008-2010 CAGR, ex Gmarket
195. Connecting ... with adjacent formats
Today, a nearly $1.3B collection of businesses...
Classifieds Advertising- Improved
format* based format** Verticals
Double-digit Mid-single Double-digit Private
CAGR digit CAGR CAGR sale
StubHub
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
2010 2013 E 2010 2013 E 2010 2013 E
... Expected to grow at ~15% CAGR
*Includes Rent.com revenue ** Includes Shopping.com revenue
196. “Seeds”... Better conversion... new markets
Organic Acquisitions Investments
Innovation
• Mobile / Local / • Red Laser • Magento
Social • Milo • Appcelerator
• Group Gifts • Critical Path
• Deal Finder Software
• Instant Sale
• Deal Blasts
197. OE improves customer experience ...
Growing trusted Improved buyer Satisfaction
sellers experience guaranteed
% of GMV... BBEs
32%+
Q4‟10 Consistent
... from
decline
Top rated Q4‟10
sellers
... with Free
Shipping Reducing number
of bad buyer
experiences eBay Buyer Protection
... Lower customer ... Lower customer service ... Increased protection
acquisition costs; more outbound... costs
198. Ops Excellence ... to fund investments
„10 Segment margin ~ 40%...
Leverage and Ops Faster growing Fund investments
Excellence adjacencies in trust, engagement
and innovation
Operating Margin Levers
... Yields „13 segment margin ~ 38 to 42%*
* Company projections
199. In summary, Marketplaces 2013 outlook
Marketplaces
$7 - $8B
(mid-point CAGR : 10%)
Revenue Grow with ecommerce
rates, lead innovation
Tailored shopping
Key growth drivers experiences, Local C2C
strength, global tickets,
Mobile, Offline, Platform
Direct segment
38% to 42%
margin*
*Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
200. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
201. We enter „11 with a strong balance sheet
Change in Cash
Excellent cash flows... A stronger, more focused portfolio... Lower cost of capital
Debt: $0.7B $7.8B
$1.8B Buyback
M&A: US
FCF: $3.0B
Skype: $2.7B
$4.4B $2.0B
$3.3B
Int‟l
$5.1B
2008 Ending Balance 2010 Ending Balance
... and the flexibility and discipline to invest wisely
202. Our philosophy … in order of priority
Redistribute
Strategic Excess Cash
Organic Acquisitions/ Redistribute
Investment Investments Cash
~Buyback
~
Strengthen our
Offset comp-based
Fund BML growth portfolio... extend our
dilution
reach
... while maintaining financial flexibility !!
203. Accelerate strategic priorities with M&A ...
Capitalize on key market trends …
• Mobile • Social • Digital • Local
PayPal:
Digital wallet …
Expand our Marketplaces:
• Merchant growth
Alternate formats...
geographic “enablers”;
tailored shopping
footprint experiences...
• Low cost processor
capabilities
• Risk analytics
... Enhancing our platform for commerce …
… while pursuing Technology/Talent-based acquisitions to
accelerate organic plans
204. Recent acquisitions ... future growth
Mobile Development
Local Shopping … Private Sales …
… Critical Path
Milo.com Brands4Friends
Software
• Enter new • Participate in • Accelerates organic
adjacency fastest-growing plans with
channel for technology & talent
• Real-time secondary CSA in acquisition
availability of local Europe
inventory • Increases mobile
• Strengthens talent, capacity and
• Brings offline position as a capabilities
inventory online leading online
fashion destination
in Europe
• Integration with
eBay.com and
RedLaser mobile
app
205. Investments … to enhance opportunities
Geographic Adjacencies Non-Core
Reach
206. Agenda …
Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now
Over the next 3 years…
Our framework for execution...
PayPal… extending leadership position
Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities
Capital allocation… investing for growth
3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
207. Our 3 year outlook to 2013
Marketplaces
$6 - $7B $7 - $8B
(mid-point CAGR: 24%) (mid-point CAGR : 10%)
Revenue High growth & Grow with ecommerce
gaining share rates, lead innovation
Consumer Tailored shopping
Key Preferences, experiences, Local C2C
growth Merchant coverage; strength, global tickets,
New Products Mobile, Offline, Platform
driver New Markets
Direct
segment 24% to 26% 38% to 42%
margin*
*Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
208. Our aspiration for 2013
Revenue Goal $13B - $15B
2013
Non-GAAP
EPS CAGR 10 - 14%
2010 – 2013**
Free Cash Flow* $7.5 to 8.5B
2011 - 2013
*Reconciliation in appendix
**CAGR is measured using 2010 as the base