South Korea Presentation

Mike Gallagher 12 November South Korea: Land of the Morning Calm

Overview of South Korea ,[object Object]

50.7% of population lives in Capital city Seoul

Slightly smaller than the state of Indiana,[object Object]

Executive Summary H1N1 virus is highly likely to affect, but not impact South Korea Highly likely South Korean government and healthcare system can support an H1N1 pandemic

Exec Sum Continued… South Korea is highly likely to grow economically, leading S. Korea to attempt to reduce CO2 emissions. Conversely, South Koreas destabilizing factors are its neighbors. Especially with nuclear North Korea, leading to S. Korea’s creation of a missile defense program.

H1N1 and Students The H1N1 virus is highly likely to hurt the South Korean education system and its students until the end of the flu season, which typically ends in March.

H1N1 and Students Schools have closed in reaction to the South Korean ministry of health, welfare and family affairs raising the swine flu alert level to its highest status (red) due to the rapid spread of the viral disease in the country Tuesday November 3.

H1N1 and Students South Korea's education-service sector shrank in the third quarter from a year earlier for the first time in a decade due probably to the fast spread of H1N1. Nearly 400 schools across the country have closed voluntarily due to outbreaks that are mostly infecting young adults and children.

An example of the swine flue alert scale

H1N1 Vaccine Availability South Korea is highly unlikely to have enough vaccine to inoculate their entire population.

H1N1 Vaccine Availability South Korea is going to inoculate those in the high-risk group such as children, medical staff, the chronically ill, and pregnant woman. South Korea has enough vaccine to inoculate 27% of the population. Plan is to inoculate 35%. South Korea is using preventative measures to slow spreading within the population.

Who Gets The Vaccine? Planned inoculation includes… one million medical staff 7.5 million schoolchildren 660,000 soldiers senior citizens, pregnant women children below five years Vaccine is free to the groups named above

H1N1 and the Government The H1N1 virus is likely not to greatly affect the South Korean Government. Although H1N1 is a precedence for S. Korean government. “Flu prevention, vaccination, and treatment are top priority for the country as for now.” – President Lee Myung-bak - 11/02/09

H1N1 and the Government The S. Korean government has taken many measures, including vaccination and preventive measures, in order to reduce the spread of the H1N1 flu. There are more pressing issues currently, such as North Korea, economic reform, government effectiveness, trade, and corruption.

President Lee Myung-bak South Korean President Lee Myung-bak ordered his government on Monday November 2 to take all means necessary to fight the fast spread of Influenza A/H1N1 and to assure his people that the government is already taking measures in need.

H1N1 and the Health Care System The South Korean health care system is highly likely to handle an H1N1 pandemic with the use of prevention, vaccination, quarantine, and antiviral drugs.

National Health Insurance With the Korean universal National Health Insurance (NHI) Korean patients can go to any doctor or any medical institution, including hospitals, which they choose. However, there are problems with the National health Insurance

H1N1 and the Health Care System A major problem concerning healthcare resources in South Korea is regional disparities in medical services. Most private medical facilities are located in urban areas, and around 90% of physicians are concentrated in cities while 80% of the population lives in urban areas.

H1N1 and the Health Care System South Korea is becoming an aging society faster than any other country. Elderly are becoming a large social burden.

H1N1 and the Health Care System South Korea, having the fourth largest economy in Asia and 13th largest in the world Korea can handle a universal health care system challenged by H1N1, which which took twelve years in the making.

Overview of National Health Care Participation is compulsory Insurance coverage is universal Insurance benefits are standardized The government is the primary payer Physician fees are standardized

statement by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs on October 30 says 34 out of an estimated 100,000 people that have been infected by H1N1 have died,

mortality rate is 0.03 percent. the mortality rate from H1N1 is lower than that from seasonal influenza, and this has been confirmed not only in South Korea but also around the world. 64 have died of H1N1 in S. Korea.

Government Issue The South Korean government will likely invite a North Korean delegation to the next G20 summit held in Seoul November 2010.

North Korea in Need of Aid North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing’s, along with other provocations, has increased pressure from regional powers trying to persuade it to abandon nuclear arms in exchange for massive aid.

North Korea to G20 North Korea has recently begun reaching out for talks with the United States and South Korea. Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun says a North Korean delegation may be invited to the G20 meeting that South Korea will host in November 2010.

Yoon Jeung-hyun "it is customary for the chairperson of the annual meeting to invite a few non-members to the gathering although no decision has been reached on the guest countries for next year. Asking North Korea to attend the G20 as an observer is one of many options that can be explored.” - Yoon Jeung-hyun 10/23/09

North Limit Line Skirmish A recent sea engagement by North Korea on Nov 9th will also likely bring N. Korea to the G20 table on November 2010. The first naval clash between the two sides in seven years broke out just a week before President BarackObama is due to visit Seoul.

North Might Want To Negotiate suspicion the North's communist regime is trying to ratchet up tensions to gain a negotiating advantage

Environment South Korea will likely not meet their goal of freezing or reducing their CO2 emissions of 4 percent by 2020. Pressures from Korean businesses and the building of New Sondgdo will greatly impede South Korea’s goal.

Korean Businesses “most Korean companies want a lower target because a deeper target will place a big burden on industries including steel, petrochemical and oil refining” - Park Tae Jin* - 10/13/09 *Park is the head of the Korea Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s sustainable business institute

Korean Businesses “It will need a lot of effort to achieve any of these targets as the country’s energy demand is still rising and economic growth remains faster than developed countries”. - Kang Hee Chan 10/13/09 Kang is chief researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul

Asia’s fourth-largest economy will grow 3.6 percent next year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. South Korea is the world's fifth-largest automaker, which is heavily dependent on exports of manufactured goods and petroleum products to drive its economy.

New Sondgo City New Sondgdo City, which will be built on 1,500 acres of land reclaimed from the Yellow Sea off Incheon, about 35 miles from the South's capital Seoul, will likely prevent S. Korea from reaching the 4 percent CO2 reduction target

New Songdo: Atlantis of the East New Songdo City is billed as the largest private real estate development in history. Korea's answer to Shanghai and Dubai is set to be completed by 2015.

Economy South Korea’s economy is highly likely to expand through the fourth quarter. The jump in gross domestic product (GDP) from the second quarter, the biggest since the first quarter of 2002, followed by an economic output that grew 2.9% in the third quarter, furthering distancing the country from the global downturn.

South Korea's GDP growth: 1960-2007 Before Financial Crisis

South Korea GDP rises fastest in 5-1/2 years Currently

S. Korean Economy The South Korean people are buying. Confidence at South Korean manufacturers rose to a seven-year high in October, the central bank said Thursday November 12 the PMI signaled solid growth of the South Korean manufacturing sector. PMI was 52.5 in October

S. Korean Foreign Exchange The country's foreign exchange reserves are expected to have a record-breaking month as a weakening dollar has boosted the value of assets in other currencies.

Wed Nov 11, 2300 South Korea's central bank left its key interest rate at a record low under pressure from domestic and global policymakers not to implement a hasty exit plan despite rapid economic recovery. the central bank said that recent economic activity showed clear signs of recovery, but the H1N1 flu outbreak means there isstill uncertainty.

Analytic Confidence Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium Source reliability ranges from low to high There is no conflict amongst sources Analyst had low expertise and worked alone Did not use structured analytic methods The research was simple and the amount of time available was adequate

Website http://www.wix.com/mgalla22/lfar

Thank You For Your Time And Attention.

Contact Info Mike Gallagher (301) 537-5198 mgalla22@mercyhurst.edu

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