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Boomtowns: Planning for Resource Regions in Northern Canada
1. City-Region Studies Centre
Regional Planning Speakers Series
Boomtowns
Planning for Resource Regions in
Northern Canada
Jason Thorne + Michelle Drylie, planningAlliance
October 30, 2013
2. planningAlliance
Today‟s presentation
1. Characteristics of resource regions
2. Case studies
• Athabasca Oil Sands Area, Alberta
• Thompson Region, Manitoba
3. Best practices for designing a regional planning
process
4. Benefits of regional planning in resource regions
7. planningAlliance
Remote and under-serviced
• Typically in remote
areas, with few
existing settlements.
• High demands for
infrastructure
investment.
• Typically low level of
community services.
Resource Regions
8. planningAlliance
Resource Regions
Difficult to predict population growth
• Population growth
tied to external factors
(resource
prices, global
production
schedules).
• Significant influx by
in-migrants hoping to
benefit from resource
spin-offs.
9. planningAlliance
Accommodating workers
• Housing shortages.
• FIFO / camp model
versus permanent
residency.
• Different needs for
construction versus
operations phases.
• Worker attraction
and retention.
Resource Regions
11. planningAlliance
Resource Regions
Economic diversification and post-closure
planning
• High dependency on
single resource.
• Need to support
development of other
economic sectors
through long-term
strategic planning.
• Socio-economic
approach required to
address
livelihoods, community
development, environme
ntal issues, etc.
12. planningAlliance
Land use conflicts
• Resource areas.
• Environmental
areas.
• Settlement areas.
• Aboriginal
communities and
traditional lands.
Resource Regions
14. planningAlliance
Case Studies - CRISP
The Athabasca Oil Sands Area
• Approx. 97,500
population (incl. First
Nations and Metis
Settlements) and
12,000+ in work camps.
• 1.3 million bpd.
• Estimated 240,000
people and 6.0 million
bpd in ~40 years.
15. planningAlliance
Case Studies - CRISP
The Athabasca Oil Sands Area
• GoA‟s long-term strategic
infrastructure plan to
accommodate population
growth as oil sands
development expands:
– Transportation
(highways, rail, transit, air);
– Schools, health facilities, and
correctional facilities;
– Water and wastewater
treatment facilities;
– Urban expansion;
– Utilities, including transmission
lines and pipelines.
16. planningAlliance
Case Studies - CRISP
Planning issues
•
Addressing infrastructure
needs.
•
Predicting population growth
based on a bitumen-based
population forecasting
methodology.
•
Identifying appropriate types
and supply of worker housing.
•
Developing a flexible planning
framework including a phasing
plan and monitoring framework.
“Based on our assessment of current services and infrastructure, we identified significant gaps
in housing, health care and basic infrastructure”.
Responding to the Rapid Growth of
Oil Sands Development
Final Report December 2006
17. planningAlliance
Thompson, Manitoba
•
Known as the „Hub of the North,‟
providing educational, health, retail
and government services to a region
of approximately 65,000 people
•
Census 2011 population of 13,123
does not accurately reflect the City‟s
large transient population or its
relationship to the
surrounding region
•
Vale is the City‟s largest private
employer. Its 1,600 positions represent
about 21% of jobs in the City
•
In November 2010, Vale announced
the transition of its Manitoba
operations away from smelting and
refining and towards mining and
milling, with surface operations slated
for closure in 2015.
Case Studies - Thompson
19. planningAlliance
Planning issues
•
Leveraging Thompson and the
region‟s strong resource sector to
foster the development of other
economic sectors.
•
Increasing the number of jobs in
Thompson and the region through
economic diversification.
•
Providing a high level of service within
Thompson to a rapidly growing and
changing region, including one of
Canada‟s youngest populations.
•
Determining appropriate investments
in infrastructure development to
accommodate population and
economic growth over the long term.
Case Studies - Thompson
21. planningAlliance
Best Practices
An informed, multi-stakeholder participatory
process
•
Building trust and momentum through regular
dialogue with stakeholders
•
Facilitated discussion to define the process
stakeholders will participate in, with terms of
reference that clearly articulate the roles and
responsibilities of each organization/individual
•
Regular and transparent information sharing
and opportunities for feedback in one-on-one
and group settings
•
Preparation and support for „good meetings,‟
in which all stakeholders come to the table on
an equal footing. Good meetings include a
pre-set agenda, a consistent and clear format
for minutes, an established dispute-resolution
process and a clear understanding of the longterm work plan
•
Fostering local relationships and mutual trust
by adhering to the process as defined in the
terms of reference
22. planningAlliance
Quantitative and verifiable baseline
data
•
Supporting anecdotal evidence
and lived experience with
verifiable data (e.g. Statistics
Canada, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation, labour
market studies, etc.)
•
Providing quantitative data in a
format accessible to all users
•
Using baseline data to develop a
planning rationale, identify
gaps, set
goals/objectives, support
strategic planning, and identify
opportunities for action
•
Engaging stakeholders in longterm, publicly accessible
monitoring of the baseline. The
baseline is a „living document‟
Best Practices
23. planningAlliance
Stakeholder-informed mapping
•
Learning the region from those who
know it best can complement baseline
data from formal sources
•
Defining geographical
boundaries/connections/flows through
discussion about and visual
representation of the lived experience
of stakeholders
•
Generating buy-in to the process from
organizations and communities who
are often geographically excluded
•
Generating discussion and critique
from organizations and communities
not engaged in the process, resulting
in a new understanding of
geographical relationships
Best Practices
24. planningAlliance
An options-based approach to economic
diversification
•
Broadening traditional definitions of
economic diversification and
development to incorporate structural
elements that may be overlooked in a
simpler model or definition
•
Provide plan options that respond to a
diverse economic base and multiple
opportunities for individual and
community development
•
Distributing resources for planning and
implementation across a range of
plans to address the interests and
priorities of multiple stakeholders
•
Empowering stakeholders to prioritize
their needs and take responsibility for
implementation
Best Practices
25. planningAlliance
Practical strategic plans
•
Equal focus on long-term strategic
planning and near-term action to
support organizations in making
proactive decisions to address
immediate needs
•
Establishing a strong regulatory
framework to support and facilitate the
implementation of action-focused
plans. The framework must be flexible
and easily updated/replicated
•
Building stakeholders‟ capacity to take
on implementation and future planning
throughout the project process. Ensure
the process itself is understood by
stakeholders as a technical output.
•
Developing implementation strategies
that take into account local resources
and capacity for implementation
Best Practices
26. planningAlliance
Establishing partnerships for
implementation
•
Carrying the stakeholder
relationships and trust developed
through the engagement process
into implementation with a few
„quick wins‟
•
Establishing the next phase of
local engagement and
relationship-building processes
while facilitation support is still
available to ensure a smooth
transition
•
Successful stakeholder
partnerships can reduce
dependence on government and
large industrial partners for
implementation
Best Practices
29. planningAlliance
A shared vision
• What will be the longterm legacy of the
resource development
activity?
• What
social, environmental, ec
onomic outcomes are
desired?
• Manage expectations.
Benefits of Regional Planning
30. planningAlliance
A common understanding
• The community‟s
understanding of
resource
development, its
impacts and its
potential.
• Industry‟s
understanding of the
region and its needs.
Benefits of Regional Planning
31. planningAlliance
Benefits of Regional Planning
Basis for a community dialogue
• A forum for engagement
outside of often
controversial issuespecific discussions and
negotiations.
• Establish dialogue
mechanisms and
relationships that will also
facilitate future issuespecific discussions and
negotiations.
32. planningAlliance
Anticipate issues
• Anticipate and plan
for the long-term
needs of industry and
communities.
• Early identification of
future risks and
challenges.
Benefits of Regional Planning
33. planningAlliance
Benefits of Regional Planning
Align priorities and find efficiencies
• Align infrastructure
development priorities
of industry and
communities.
• Strategic direction to
company community
development
investments.
34. planningAlliance
Benefits of Regional Planning
Clarify roles and responsibilities
• Provide clarity regarding
“who does what”.
• Properly position
industry‟s roles and
responsibilities with
respect to regional
development.
35. Benefits of Regional Planning
planningAlliance
Typical Outcomes
Moving From
•
STAKEHOLDERS DISENGAGED FROM ONE
ANOTHER / DISTRUSTFUL
•
REACTIVE AND UNCOORDINATED
RESPONSES TO LONG-TERM CHALLENGES
•
CULTURE OF ‘FIRE FIGHTING’ AND
MOVING FROM CRISIS TO CRISIS
•
SHORT-SIGHTED / PASSIVE APPROACH TO
MANAGING ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
•
•
LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF THE LINK
BETWEEN LAND USE AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT / SUSTAINABLE PROJECT
IMPLEMENTATION
STAKEHOLDERS’ PERCEPTION OF INDUSTRY
AS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROJECT FUNDING
AND ACTION
Moving
Toward
•
STAKEHOLDERS COMMIT TO A
COLLABORATIVE PLANNING PROCESS
FOCUSED ON TRUST-BUILDING AND SHARED
WINS
•
THOROUGH UNDERSTANDING OF BASELINE
CONDITIONS AND ADOPTED STRATEGIC
VISION ENABLE PROACTIVE AND
COORDINATED RESPONSES
•
MULTI-PRONGED, LONG-TERM APPROACH
TO PLANNING
•
OWNERSHIP AND IMPLEMENTATION OF
PLANS AND BEST PRACTICE
•
STAKEHOLDERS SEE INDUSTRY AS AN EQUAL
PARTNER IN THE PROCESS AND EXPECT
CONTINUED PARTNERSHIP
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Notas del editor
BrazilResources – Iron, Gold, Copper, OilNuggets:World’s fifth largest mineral producersInvestments of $75B planned in the mining sector for 2012-2016Brazil’s largest installed mining operations are for iron ore, with 2010 output at 372 million metric tons/year representing nearly 17% of the world’s total. The total value of Brazilian mineral output in 2010 was US$50 billion.South America Pacific RimResources – copper, gold, silverNuggets:Chile & Peru and the first and second largest producers of copperChile produces 1/3 of the world’s copperMining investment in Peru is at a 400% increase since 2007Northern RussiaResources – Oil & gas, diamondsMongoliaResources – Copper, coal, gold, iron, nickelNuggets:Has 10% of the world’s known coal depositsOyuTolgoi (copper mega-mine) will account for 30% of Mongolia’s GDPChinaResources – coal, gold and most rare earth mineralsNuggets:China is the world's leading producer of coal, gold, and most rare earth minerals.Around half of the world’s iron productionMiddle EastResources – oil & gas, ironWest AfricaResources – Gold, diamonds, nickelNuggets - East AfricaResources – Gold, iron, diamondsWestern Australia Nuggets – Mining could add up to $50B to Australia’s GDP over the next 20 years
Canadian ArticResources – Diamonds, IronNuggets:The economies of the three territories are expected to grow by more than seven per cent in both 2012 and 2013 (Can. Average is 2.1%) Bathurst InletResources – Diamonds, Zinc, Copper, SilverBaffin IslandResources – Iron, GoldBaker Lake AreaResources – Gold, UraniumSudbury-Timmins-KapuskasingResources – Chromite, Nickel, Copper, Platinum, GoldNuggets:Ring of Fire – “Ontario’s oil sands” Tony Clement claimed the ROF has the potential to generate $120BNewfoundland + LabradorResources – Iron, Nickel, Oil (offshore)Nuggets:12.5% rise in oil productionValue of mineral shipments in 2012 was $4.1BUpwards of 15B of investment in Labradors mining projects may be realized over the next 10 years
The Mid-Canada Development Corridor: A Concept was first released by its authors, Richard Rohmer and Acres Limited, in 1967. Mid-Canada was described as a corridor extending from Newfoundland and Labrador to British Columbia and the Yukon, stretching from the northern edge of existing settlements (300 to 500 kilometers north of the Canada-United States border) to the tree line. Further study noted that the corridor was already beginning to be settled; had an acceptable climate and geography to support additional future development; had significant mineral wealth and good access to water, hydro-electric power and agricultural soils; and merited national recognition as an important new development zone that was neither southern nor Arctic. Through careful planning, it was envisioned, the Mid-Canada Corridor would realize the potential to create a stronger, richer Canada capable of responding to its growing population. It is known that the corridor also serves as the principal traditional living area of the great majority of Canada’s Aboriginal peoples. Thus, the potential to link their traditional economic development and the anticipated growth in mining, oil, forestry and tourism development, also placed emphasis on the project by Aboriginal groups. Today, it is clear that a new series of projects are emerging across the corridor from coast-to-coast-to coast (see Figure 1). These include mining, energy, transportation and planning initiatives as well as a new series of provincial plans for northern regions which collectively indicate that the Mid-Canada Corridor is now a reality.
In the Mongolian Gobi desert (approx. 700km from Ulan Batar, the capital city), access to water is a challenge, very little in the way of infrastructure, small administrative town of KhanbogdHired by Rio Tinto to produce a conceptual design and feasibility study for a newtown and business park, situated where the existing town of Khambogd is today
Mongolia: In-flux is hard to predict but Khambogd will dramatically increase in sizeWe estimated from 3,500 to 35,000 in 2025 (10x)
the Tumbler Ridge housing is for mine workers but is in the form of a traditional hotel, that would be used by commuting mine workers initially for the 12 year life of the mine and would become a traditional hotel after mine closure. The District government had specifically excluded work camps in the District, and had rejected an early proposal by Teck for a "lodge" which had small rooms and WCs similar to a "camp', so a hotel was a solution that fit the District's long-term accommodation objectives and the new Zoning-bylaw they had developed to specifically exclude "camps". And a hotel was cheaper than conventional housing for Teck for worker housing. The hotel was to be located in town (on a commercial site zoned for hotel), in the town centre area. They would only permit "temporary accommodation" for a max of 2 years on site, for construction purposes. Final proposal was for a 200 room hotel, with a mix of 100 econo rooms (275 sf) and deluxe rooms (414 sf), each with a full 3 piece bathroom and small kitchen counter for coffee, under counter fridge and potentially a micro-wave, as well as a restaurant and fitness room.
E to W = 300 km = Peerless / Trout Lake to SK borderN to S = 400 km = Wood Buffalo National Park and Fort Chip to LLBApprox. 100,000 km21970 = 1st commercial scale mine and upgrader (now Suncor) = 7,000 in FMcM1980s = 30,000 people and stable1995 = current expansion began
950 km of new roads and 600 km upgradedHighway 63 and 881 upgradesNew road network around FmcM and accessing deposits to the northBus rapid transit and possibly commuter rail north of FMcME-W road from FMcM to Wabasca / Red Earth Creek area (carbonate plays in the NW of the AOSA)813 north from WabascaHalf a dozen new or upgraded water and wastewater treatment facilitiesNearly 30,000 new spaces in elementary and secondary schoolsOver 300 new hospital beds***********************************FMcM as primary hubSecondary = Anzac, LLB, WabascaFMcM focus options = 145,000 peopleNew urban growth nodePlanned camp community in Conklin area + longer term north of wabasca as carbonate deposits come into playTraditional worker camps from 12,000 at time of CRISP to less than 5,000Scenarios that focussed on work camps = 25,000 people in camps on a permanent basis and 10-15% overall lower growth in AOSA************************