Foreign Affairs On Population Trends

The New Population Bomb The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World JACK A. GOLDSTONE George Mason School of Public Policy Originally published in FOREIGN AFFAIRS Jan-Feb/2010 January 010

Esse enriquecimento, contudo, não será uniforme ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The center of economic growth, in the next decades, will be the large cities of the Third World © 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

West's relative decline is even more dramatic if we consider changes in income ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Never since 1800 has a majority of the world's economic growth occurred outside of Europe, the United States, and Canada © 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Nearly 80% of the world's GDP growth will occur outside of Europe, the US and Canada ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],From now on, the main driver of global economic expansion will be the economic growth of newly industrialized countries, such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey © 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Although South Korea's case is extreme, it represents an increasingly common fate for developed countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

All the forces that fueled growth, from 1950 to 2000, in industrialized countries, are weakening This will have a dramatic impact on economic growth in the developed world © 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE 1950-2000 2000-2050 Increased productivity due to better education College enrollment, boomed after World War II, is not likely to recur in the 21 st century Movement of women into the labor force Also a one-time social change Innovations in technology Innovators who created new products and leading-edge consumers who were willing to try them out are thinning out as world's population ages

A further strain on industrialized economies will be rising medical costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Basic services, meanwhile, will be increasingly costly because fewer young workers will be available for strenuous and labor-intensive jobs © 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Meanwhile, fast-growing countries in Africa, LATAM , the Middle East, and S-E Asia will have youthful populations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Many of these countries have multiple cities with over one million residents ,[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE Urbanized population today Urbanized population in 2050 China 40% 73% Sub-Saharan Africa 35% 67% (1 billion pelople) India 30% 55%

The structure of current global institutions is likely to change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Current levels of immigration are paltry compared to those that might soon occur across the world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Developed countries may encourage a reverse flow of older immigrants from developed to developing countries ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2010 JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Foreign Affairs On Population Trends

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Foreign Affairs On Population Trends