It’s over! The end of a 30 year trend in computing

1. It’s over! The end of a 30 year trend in computing Miles Lewitt “ We are dedicating all of our future product development to … This is a sea change in computing” Paul Otellini (2005), President, Intel

2. Gordon Moore 2003 “ Another decade is probably straightforward... There is certainly no end to creativity.” Bio: Currently Chairman Emeritus of Intel Corporation. Moore co-founded Intel in 1968, serving initially as Executive Vice President. He became President and Chief Executive Officer in 1975 and held that post until elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in 1979. He remained CEO until 1987 and was named Chairman Emeritus in 1997. Moore earned a B.S. in Chemistry from the University of California at Berkeley and a Ph.D. in Chemistry and Physics from the California Institute of Technology. He was born in San Francisco, Calif., on Jan. 3, 1929. He is a director of Gilead Sciences Inc., a member of the National Academy of Engineering, and a Fellow of the IEEE. Moore also serves on the Board of Trustees of the California Institute of Technology. He received the National Medal of Technology from President George Bush in 1990. 1965 Moore’s Law: “The number of transistors incorporated in a chip will double every 24 months”

3. Niklaus Wirth 1995 “ Software gets slower, faster than hardware gets faster" Bio: Professor of Computer Science at ETH (Federal Institute of Technology) in Zurich, Switzerland, from 1968 to 1999. His principal areas of contribution were programming languages and methodology, software engineering, and design of personal workstations. He has designed the programming languages Algol W (1965), Pascal (1970), Modula-2 (1979), and Oberon (1988), was involved in the methodologies of structured programming and stepwise refinement, and designed and built the workstations Lilith (1980) and Ceres (1986). He has published several text books for courses on programming, algorithms and data structures, and logical design of digital circuits. He has received various prizes and honorary doctorates, including the Turing Award (1984), the IEEE Computer Pioneer (1988), and the Award for outstanding contributions to Computer Science Education (acm 1987).

4. If the hardware ever stopped getting faster What would the impact be on developing and evolving software offerings?

5. Process Scaling Drives Transistor Count Process scaling enables feature size reduction by a factor of 0.7 every 24 months 592,000,000 2004 Intel  Itanium  2 processor (9MB cache) 220,000,000 2002 Intel  Itanium  2 processor 25,000,000 2001 Intel  Itanium  processor 42,000,000 2000 Intel  Pentium 4 processor 9,500,000 1999 Intel  Pentium III processor 7,500,000 1997 Intel  Pentium II processor 3,100,000 1993 Intel  Pentium processor 1,200,000 1989 Intel486 TM processor 275,000 1985 Intel386 TM processor 134,000 1982 Intel286 29,000 1978 8086 4.500 1974 8080 2,500 1972 8008 2,300 1971 4004 Transistors Year of Introduction Microprocessor

7. 1000x Performance Improvement Pentium  4 Processor 386 Processor May 1986 @16 MHz core 275,000 1.5  transistors 1.2 SPECint2000 August 2003 @3.2 GHz core 55 Million 0.13  transistors 1249 SPECint2000 17 years 200x 200x / 11x 1000x