Ajit Jaokar presentation at MoMoNo 2nd anniversary

1. 0 Mobile Monday Norway Jan 2010 Ajit Jaokar Telecoms 2.0: Understanding the Impact of Open Mobile

2. Ajit Jaokar Ajit Jaokar UK based - Hands on Publisher (futuretext) - Author (Mobile Web 2.0, Social Media Marketing, Open Mobile) - Chair: Oxford University's Next Gen Mobile Applications panel - PhD student UCL/UK - Consulting – Operators, Governments/EU, Startups – World Economic Forum - future of the Internet Recent and forthcoming talks include Mobile world congress(2007,2008,2009), CEBIT, Stanford University - MIT Sloan -Web 2.0 expo - Ajaxworld Supernova - CNN money - BBC - Oxford University European parliament Global top 20 wireless blogger According to fierce wireless www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com 1

4. How the value chain is changing

5. Where it is going to (which appstore will 'win')

6. Web v.s Apps?

8. Open Mobile Open Mobile - is even your dog can log on to any mobile :) - like the PC

9. Open Mobile = your dog can log Cringeworthy as it may sound! - On a more serious note it implies UNLEASHING(UNLOCKING) THE DEVICE i.e. complete separation of access from service! - device is not tied to the network (like a PC)

10. Open mobile - Net neutrality Open Mobile - Net neutrality argument and decoupling the network from the service. Think of multiplayer chess over the network: There are two possibilities - A) If the network is agnostic (i.e. no intelligence is built into the network) - then the chess player can concentrate on creating the chess application. B) If the network is 'intelligent' - then you need a 'network expert' to create a chess application. (a)is an example of intelligence shifting to the edge of the network www.maniacworld.com 6

11. 7 Building a cage? http://www.museumfurniture.com/curiosities/8birdcage1.jpg

12. Or building a play frame? Building a Cage or Building a play frame? Both have a structure. One restricts you - the other allows you to explore. The choice is ours .. And the choice has commercial benefits .. http://www.the1foru.co.uk/ekmps/shops/the1foru/images/action_tramps_2005_271%5Bekm%5D465x300%5Bekm%5D.jpg 8

13. The inevitable forces driving Open Mobile Why OpenMobile is inevitable: Like a freight train .. You cannot stop it .. http://www.edrants.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/rr1.jpg 9

15. Creation of content (vs.. consumption)

16. Social networkinghttp://www.usfca.edu/pj/images/4-3horse.jpg 10

18. Dumb pipes – smart notes

19. No differential charging for IP traffic

20. 'Communication based' not driven by media players (which seeks to make us passive consumers)

21. Connected by IP and http protocols

22. Creation and not consumptionhttp://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/webserver-backbone-sm.gif http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18944/?a=f 11

25. Open - from a customer perspective .. Open’ means the ability to access a resource or to communicate with people within reasonable commercial and technological barriers. Not free. Open - makes a lot more sense from a customer perspective 14

26. Forces at work .. Telecoms Stack We are seeing two forces at work: Value is being abstracted to higher levels of the stack / edge of the network (ex appstores, Google Latitude) - for Long tail applications and at the same time, the networks will find profitable niches in areas which they can uniquely do - ex via LTE http://www.explore-highland-perthshire.com/images/highland_games/pitlochry/tug_of_war.jpg 15

27. Social networks Converged address book, Social networks integrated into devices, Twitter Cloud Azure; Verizon, Chrome cloud synchronization, bookmark sync Content Paid/Free, Hulu, YouTube, spotify, 3D, HD Ecosystems LG, Nokia Ovi, Samsung, VCAST, Appstores vs Mobile Web, BREW apps, China Mobile, iPhone, JIL, getjar, BONDI-W3C Device Feature vs. Smart-phone, Nokia, LG, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, SE, RIM, netbooks, open source on devices, sensors, mobile web, emerging markets Mobile Web HTML5, Chrome, WebOS, Real time web, Browser extensions LTE femtocells, HSDPA+, bearer aware services,

28. Value moves away from the network – (Long Tail, Unpredictable use) and also towards the network(Smart Grids, security, Cloud, mobile health)

29. A two sided business model .. Two-sided markets, also called two-sided networks, are economic networks having two distinct user groups that provide each other with network benefits. Ex: credit cards (cardholders, merchants); video games (gamers and game developers); the Internet. Benefits to each group exhibit demand economies of scale on the other. Consumers, prefer credit cards honoured by more merchants and while merchants prefer cards carried by more consumers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-sided_market

30. A two sided business model .. Devices, networks and Appstores themselves are part of the ecosystem i.e. Enablers between the customer and the developer

31. A two sided business model ..

32. 21 The ecosystem .. http://www.elmspuzzles.com/gallery/Robinson/Watering%20Hole.jpg

33. Choosing the least worst option .. Like voting .. People will choose the least worst option

34. The irony … Eight years … i-mode launch 22 February 1999 i-Phone launch January 9, 2007

35. Closed to open .. Locked - closed platforms - open platforms - web apps

36. Live and let die .. Live and let die .. OR Mobile apps vs.. the Mobile Web?

37. Twitter must die .. Twitter must die for the real time web to live ..

38. iPhone must die for .. Mobile Web Apps Will Win In The Long Haul – Vic Gundotra .. Google ..

39. The rise and rise of the iPhone According to Frost and Sullivan, App store downloads are forecast to reach 6.7B by 2014

40. The rise and rise of the iPhone In Nov 2009, App Store carried more items than the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart, which merchandises about 100,000 items per store.

41. Not all free ...

42. Appstore inside .. ‘Appstore inside’ – Not just the usual suspects. Allow unpredictable use(generative) – anything can be a platform - adapted from Distimo

43. 5 characteristics of an app store .. Five Characteristics of appstores : visionmobile - Single marketplace (submission, certification, targeting, pricing) - Centralised billing , settlement, reporting - Global distribution - across handsets, operators, off deck - Provisioning (install upgrades etc) - On device discovery - discovery, catalogue, marketing

44. The web platform .. The web platform – source O Reilly

45. Web OS Web OS – execution environment for cloud applications. It goes beyond just making the Web local(HTML5 already does that). Specifically, If Identity and context become agnostic - then services will be nomadic and personalised. The web OS obtains the profile, determines the context, personalizes the web service. Bridges the Web and the mobile

46. 35 Identity Profile Context Web OS Web OS Personalise .. Personalise .. Web OS for TV?

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48. 10 reasons why web wins .. 1) UI: UI fragmentation is minimised through web standards 2) No IPR: There is a potentially a relationship between IPR status and fragmentation. i.e. : if there exists revenue generating IPR on a technology there is a financial incentive (from non holders) to create alternatives and fragment 3) Ease of programming: web is easier to program than other languages 4) Web technology embraces the graphical creatives i.e. allows UI people to more easily engage in apps 5) Web is proven 6) Visible code/open source which could help leverage new users 7) Same code potentially works across web and mobile 8) Widgets are a common paradigm across web and mobile 9) Many of the ecosystem gaps are being overcome(billing) 10) More programmers know it

49. Who will dominate .. Everyone will ‘survive’ – Qs is who will dominate? Ethos of the Web is ‘winner take all’ provided that they serve the customer(and by extension the developer)

50. The Cambrian explosion .. Multiple ecosystems .. Thrive and proliferate .. And that’s a healthy state .. But the web always catches up – faster bandwidth – faster processors

51. Demos .. 3D graphics – o3d - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uofWfXOzX-g Drag and drop - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmf87PyU18M Gifter - http://htmlfive.appspot.com/static/gifter.html Draw - http://htmlfive.appspot.com/static/draw.html

52. Demos ..

53. Demos ..

54. Macromyopia .. Macromyopia – short term over estimate. Long term – under estimate

55. Open Mobile .. Open Mobile - soft copy now free - 298 pages. Email me at Ajit.jaokar@futuretext.com. Print copy £19.99 / €19.99 / USD $19.99 44

56. Thanks! ajit.jaokar@futuretext.com www.futuretext.com www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com Publishing Workshops Consulting All images from Google images – copyright owned by respective holders 45