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Comparative Analysis of FDI
   in China and India
   Can Laggards Learn from Leaders?




           Swapna S. Sinha




           DISSERTATION.COM



               Boca Raton
Comparative Analysis of FDI in China and India: Can Laggards Learn from Leaders?


                       Copyright © 2007 Swapna S. Sinha
                              All rights reserved.

                               Dissertation.com
                              Boca Raton, Florida
                                 USA • 2008

                            ISBN-10: 1-58112- 398-1
                          ISBN-13: 978-1-58112-398-2
Golden Gate University



     COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF

    FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

          IN CHINA AND INDIA:

CAN LAGGARDS LEARN FROM LEADERS?


        A Dissertation Submitted to
 The Faculty of the Ageno School of Business



           In Partial Fulfillment
   Of the Requirements for the Degree of
    Doctor of Business Administration



                       By

               Swapna S. Sinha

             Copyright material
             Number ©3251222


          San Francisco, California


                January 2007


              Golden Gate University
    Doctor of Business Administration Program
TABLE OF CONTENTS


Chapter number   Chapter name                                       Page

                 List of Tables                                     Iv
                 List of Appendix                                   v-vi
                 Abstract                                           Vii
                 Acknowledgement                                    viii-x
Chapter 1        Introduction:                                      1-10
                    Research purpose
                    Research motivation
Chapter 2        FDI impacts development in emerging markets:       11-17
                    Studies on benefits of FDI
Chapter 3        Literature review:                                 18-42


                    Why firms engage in FDI?


                        Inter-firm Rivalry Theory
                        Vernon’s Product Life-cycle Theory
                        Resource Based View
                        Dunning’s Eclectic Paradigm Theory
                        Caves’ Vertical vs. Horizontal FDI Theory
                        Macroeconomic Theories
                        Export Platform Theory
                        Endurance Theory of FDI
                        Linear Synergies Theory of FDI


                     What are the determinants of FDI?
Chapter 4        Why laggards are falling behind?                   43-102


                    Factors Restricting laggard’s attractiveness



                                                    i
Infrastructural bottlenecks
               Manufacturing vs. service sector growth
               Bureaucracy and policy making
               Hypotheses development
               The Indian Model of FDI
               Measures tested in OLS & Autoregressive models
               Statistical analysis of Indian FDI


Chapter 5   Congenial business climate leads to FDI:                               103-107


               Leader’s Model of attractiveness
               Structural changes
               Strategic infrastructure
               Strategic policy initiatives


Chapter 6   Testimony from leaders in the race: China- The more evolved emerging   108-141
            market:


                China’s achievements and comparison with India
                Shanghai and modern infrastructure
                Shenzhen SEZ creation and development
                Providing economic freedom and creating openness 1978-2005
                Diaspora attraction
                Flexible labor Laws
Chapter 7   Hypotheses development                                                 142-147
            Control variables
Chapter 8   Research Methodology:                                                  148-158
                Design
                Variables
                Measures for testing
                Data Analysis OLS and Autoregressive Models


                                              ii
Chapter 9    Empirical Findings:                                                         159-168
                OLS Model Results
                Autoregressive Model Results
Chapter 10   How laggards can benefit from leaders?                                      168-207


                 Policy recommendations: Creating a Congenial Business Climate




                   Duplicating success stories- DMRC & Golden Quadrilateral
                   Powering confidence in electricity reforms
                   Infrastructure development by using reserves & PSU- offloading
                   Overcoming service sector myopia
                   From service sector core competence to dynamic capabilities
                   Paradigm shift towards skill-neutral mass manufacturing
                   Rapid formation and showcasing of large but few SEZ’s on east coast
                   Freedom and parity to TNCs by PSU-offloading and tariff reduction
                   Leveraging Diaspora strength- ‘Chun- Hui’ program
                   Hire- and- Fire


Chapter 11   Discussion & Conclusions                                                    208-210
Chapter 12   Academic & Managerial Contribution                                          211-213
Chapter 13   Limitations and Future research                                             214
             Appendix I-XXII                                                             215-241
             References                                                                  242-266




                                               iii
LIST OF TABLES



                                                                           Page



Table 1: Emerging Market Laggard- India FDI Model 1(I) OLS Regression Method 97

Table 2: Indian FDI Model 1(I) Correlation Matrix                            98

Table 3: Indian FDI Model 1(I) VIF-Model                                     98

Table 4: Indian FDI Model 1 (II) Autoregressive Regression Method            100

Table 5: Indian FDI Model (II) Correlation matrix                            101

Table 6: Indian FDI Model (II) VIF-Model                                     102

Table 7: Emerging Market Leader- China FDI Model 1 (I) OLS Regression Method 160

Table 8: China FDI Model (I) Correlation Matrix                             161

Table 9: China FDI Model (I) VIF-Model                                       163

Table 10: China FDI Model (II) Autoregressive Regression Method             165

Table 11: China FDI Model (II) Correlation matrix                           167

Table 12: China FDI Model (II) VIF-Model                                    168




                                           iv
List of Appendices



Appendix I      Global Emerging Markets                                              216

Appendix II     IMD Competitiveness Indicators, 2005 IMF                             216

Appendix III    Manufacturing Wage Rate-India & Other Mkts., IMF 2006                217

Appendix IV     India’s Export Performance vs. Asia, IMF 2006 no. 06/56              217

Appendix V      Investment Climate Indicators, World Dev. Report 2005                218

Appendix VI      Trade and Tariffs, Planning Commission of India, mid- term

                 Review Tenth Plan 2002-2007, 1, WTO 2005                            219

Appendix VII    Leading Exporters in World Merchandise Trade, WTO 2003               220

Appendix VIII   Leading Export Destinations- World, 2004, US Dept Commerce           221

Appendix IX     Leading Importers in World Merchandise Trade, WTO 2004               222

Appendix X      Constituents of Indian FDI Data, 1991-2006, MOCI, GOI                223

Appendix XI     Sources of FDI inflow to India, 191-2005, MOCI, GOI                  224

Appendix XII    Sector Wise FDI Inflows to India, 1991-2005, MOCI, GOI               225

Appendix XIII   FDI & GFC Formation in emerging markets, UNCTAD                      226

Appendix XIV    China’s share of Manufacturing vs. Services sector, UNCTAD           227

Appendix XV     Paradigm Shift FDI to Emerging Markets, 1980-2003, UNCTAD 227

Appendix XVI    Chinese Merchandise Export impact EM, UNDP, 2006                     228

Appendix XVII China’s World Trade Balances, 1984- 2005, IMF 2006                     229

Appendix XVIII Distances between Chinese and Indian coasts to largest markets        230

Appendix XIX     SEZ Benefits offered in China, Globalsorces.com                231-233

Appendix XX      State wise Literacy rates in India 1951-2001, India Budget.nic.in   234




                                          v
Appendix XXI     Share of World Manufacturing: China vs. India

                 Trend from 1993-2003 (EIU, 2006)                      235

Appendix XXII    China’s FDI inflows compared with Indian Inflows

                  1990-2005 In EIU, 2006, from UNCTAD 2006             235

Appendix XXIII    Population of India 1951-2001, India Budget.nic.in   236

Appendix XXIV    Geographical Map of China (EIU, 2006)                 237

Appendix XXV     Geographical Map of India (EIU, 2006)                 238

Appendix XXVI Chinese SEZs Locations (Liu, 2005)                       239

Appendix XXVII Chinese Strategic Infrastructure (Liu, 2005)            240

Appendix XXVIII Examples of Corruption and Bureaucratic inefficiency   241




                                         vi
Abstract



       Some emerging markets have been leaders in the world and have grown at a
higher rate benefiting from higher Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) by Trans National
Corporations (TNCs) and some have been laggards and have not able to attract as much
FDI and grow that efficiently. Why China gets 60 billion dollars FDI annually as
compared to India which does not even get 6 billion dollars, is an intriguing question?
This dissertation explores the determinants of FDI in such emerging economies to answer
the above question. What has India done till now to attract FDI? What has been China’s
strategy to become the most FDI attracting country in the world? What lessons India can
learn from China and improve its FDI inflow? The study attempts to theorize what
lessons emerging markets that are laggards in attracting FDI, such as India, can learn
from leader countries in attracting FDI, such as China in the global economy.


       This study fills the gap in the literature by analyzing the Indian data at the
relevant micro state level for the period 1992-2005 and comparing it with the Chinese
data for period of 1978-2005 at the economic zone level. Indian FDI attraction model was
tested using OLS and autoregressive models and it was found that India has grown due to
its human capital, size of the market, rate of growth of the market, and political stability.
For China, congenial business climate factors comprising of making structural changes,
creating strategic infrastructure at SEZs, and taking strategic policy initiatives of
providing economic freedom, opening up its economy, attracting diaspora, and creating
flexible labor laws were identified as drivers for attracting FDI and the model using these
variables was tested with OLS regression and autoregressive regression analysis and were
found significant. This study might help countries such as PIN (Pakistan, Indonesia, and
Nigeria) which, will follow the BRIC economies in growth, want to grow, to broaden
their understanding and formulate policies to attract FDI. At the enterprise level, it might
help TNCs in understanding markets and formulating entry and growth strategies in these
markets.




                                              vii
ACKNOWLEGEMENTS



       This research would not have been possible without the support of my family,

friends, and faculty members from Golden Gate University. I am highly indebted to each

one who provided the motivation to undertake this research project and helped me in

building the content of this work and successfully completing it.



       I express gratitude to Dr. Nabil Rageh, Director of the DBA program and a

University of Berkeley educated professor who is a very humble man, has been very

supportive to me, and provided encouragement from the starting of the program to the

end. I would like to convey my special thanks to Dr Hamid Shomali, UCLA educated

professor, the committee chair who has been a constant source of guidance to me ever

since I joined the doctoral program. He has been constantly providing new inputs,

challenging me to push my self, and utilize the feedback in developing this dissertation. I

have benefited immensely from his intellect, personality, and down to earth pragmatism.

I would also like to mention the unique contribution of Dr. Bezabeh to my work that

provided current inputs from the international business arena and enriched the content of

this dissertation. Dr. Miro Costa, apart from being the architect of the quantitative

analysis of the dissertation, has been a constant friend, philosopher, and guide to me. I

shall never forget Dr. Costa’s contribution, concern, and providing help to me during the

most testing times in my life. I highly appreciate Dr. David Kent and Dr. William Moore

to have agreed to review the dissertation and provide their valuable inputs to make

suitable improvements and enhance the quality of this dissertation work.




                                            viii
Dr. Sharmila Chatterjee, a Wharton Business School graduate and currently a

professor at Sloan Management School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology provided

constant support and encouragement during the crucial stages in the doctoral program.

This work has also been influenced by my learned colleague Tony Deleon, a Harvard and

Wharton educated management professional who constantly challenged me to look at the

same content form different perspectives during the entire doctoral program. I was highly

influenced by Tony’s style of writing and research. Another doctoral colleague Kevin

Silverra helped me greatly in the statistical and quantitative analysis. The Golden Gate

University library was the place where I learnt the most. One of the most memorable

experiences was meeting and knowing Janice Carter who was always ready to help me

out with the doctoral course work and dissertation research work. Gilles Poitras, Larry

Burg, Chae Sunday, and Christina also shaped my dissertation work. Larry would mark

every single article he read on India or China and that helped in framing a perspective on

certain issues.



        My wife Monica has been my valuable asset and an adorable friend. She was by

my side and helped me in taking this daunting challenge of my life. I can never repay her

those beautiful moments of her life that she lost in helping me to achieve this objective of

pursuing the DBA program but during the moments we shared while pursuing this

doctoral program, I discovered a new woman in her. She has read my dissertation many

times, provided inputs, and is now looking forward to visit Shanghai and Shenzhen with




                                             ix
me. My daughters Eva-Eti have been my anchors in life and whenever I was in troubled

moments, just being with them I felt energized and found a new meaning in life.



       This dissertation is dedicated to my grandmother Late Bhagwati Devi, my father

Late Dr. (Major) Ambika Prasad Sinha, and my mother Late Kusum Sinha. I learnt from

my father to continuously accept new challenges in life. I learnt stoic, endurance, and

sacrifice from my mother. I only wish they were alive today to see their son as a doctor.



       My brother Dr. Rashmi Punj Sinha has been the most intellectual person in my

life who always challenged my routine thinking. My sisters Neel Kamal and Rimjhim

filled the void of loosing my mother and have always been beside especially during these

last three- half years. My special thanks to Mrs. Neel Kamal Darbari and my brother-in-

law T.S. Dabari. I convey many thanks to my wonderful sister Rimjhim Sinha and

brother-in-law Dr. Ved Prakash.



       My childhood friend Ajai Gupta helped in many different ways in taking care of

my issues in India during my DBA program. My friends Ajai Singh, Arvind Gupta,

Arvind Srivastava, Rajesh Dwivedi, and Ravi Yadav also helped me and provided

emotional support and encouragement from time to time including this testing time.



       As I have to carry this work forward, I would welcome feedback and suggestions

from readers at swapnassinha@yahoo.com.




                                             x
Chapter 1

                                       Introduction



       Before any discussion can be started on foreign direct investment, it is important

to define it for the benefit of readers and for creating common understanding. There are

many definitions of the term Foreign Direct Investment, hereinafter referred to as ‘FDI’,

but the most commonly accepted is the one given by the IMF. IMF defines FDI as

“where an investor residing in one economy owns 10% or more of the ordinary shares or

voting power/effective voice in management in another country….. and comprises those

entities in the host country that are subsidiaries (> 50% ownership); associates (<= 50%

ownership) or branches (wholly or jointly-owned, unincorporated enterprises) of the

parent.” (IMF, 1993). A simple definition would be –“An investor based in one country

acquires an asset in another country with the intent to manage that asset”. (OECD, 2000)

More than two third of the FDI activities (one third as trade between affiliates of the same

TNC and another one third between a TNC and another enterprise) are involving Trans

National Corporations (Ramamurti, 2004), hereinafter referred to as TNCs.



       It is important to understand the significance of FDI in global trade and in

economic development. Also it is required to understand the shift in FDI towards the

developing world, and the future trends of FDI. The global stock of FDI in 2004 stands at

$9 trillion (WIR, 2005) which is equal to the total GDP, in 2005, of the three largest

economies of the world, after the US- Japan, Germany, and China. Total revenues for the

Global 500 TNCs in 2006 add up to $18.9 trillion, a third of the world's GDP. 70,000




                                             1
TNCs and their 6, 90, 000 foreign affiliates, contributing $19 trillion in sales, a third of

world GDP, create major component of this FDI stock and worldwide FDI flows. GE

(US), Vodafone (UK), and Ford (US) are the top three non-financial TNCs worldwide

contributing maximum FDI flows. The global FDI in 2005 increased to $730 billion

registering a growth of 18% over $648 billion of 2004. Of the total FDI flows, the

developed world contributed $637 billion, out of which half is from only three countries-

US, UK, and Luxemburg. In 2005 the net outflows from the developed world exceeded

the inflows by $260 billion. For the US, the largest economy in the world with $ 12.5

trillion GDP, FDI outflow increased by 90% to $ 229 billion in 2005. The developing

world FDI grew by 40% to $ 233 billion in 2004 mainly due to M&A activity and also

due to green field FDI rising consecutively for the third year. Studies suggest that FDI

flows by TNC’s have transformed international trade in the last two decades and created

new giants and a new world order (Blonigen, 2005). For 2006-07, global FDI flows are

expected to rise further if economic growth is consolidated and becomes widespread,

corporate restructuring takes hold, profit growth persists and the pursuit of new markets

continues (UNCTAD, 2005).



       A study of the existing literature suggests that FDI patterns contributing to the

growth of the emerging markets have undergone significant changes over time. The FDI

trend in last five years indicates a shift of flows from the developed world to the

developing world and emerging markets (Appendix XV). FDI is impacting development

in these emerging markets in a significant way. During the 1950-60’s most of the foreign

investment came into the developed world and Reuber et al (1973) who studied FDI




                                              2
volumes and patterns in various countries, observed that FDI flows into the developed

world were disproportionately high when compared to the developing world. Even in the

modern times, United States the most developed country in the world, still attracts the

highest FDI and in 2005 it absorbed the highest FDI of $ 94.5 billion as compared to

China which consumed $ 60 billion only. Till 2000, more than 75% of the trade was

within the developed nations of the ‘triad’- US, Europe, and Japan (Porter, 1990; WIR,

2005). According to AT Kearney FDI confidence index 2005 study, even though the US

received the highest FDI in 2005 it does not command the number one position, in terms

of FDI attractiveness, and trails behind at third position after China and India.



               In the developing world, the East Asian countries were the pioneers in realizing

the potential of FDI from TNC’s in developing their economies. These countries devised

strategies to attract FDI to meet their growth objectives (Zhang, 2001; Lall, 1993). As a

result of opening up their economies to FDI from TNCs these countries grew rapidly and

within a relatively short time period became a significant economic force. These came to

be recognized as the "four tigers"--South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.

The success of the ‘Asian tigers’ in the last two decades has created a role model for less

developed countries. Modern emerging markets can learn lessons from the experience of

these tiger economies. East Asia saw a 46% increase in inflows, to reach $105 billion, in

2005 alone, driven largely by a significant increase in flows to Hong Kong (China).




1
   Over the past seven years, AT Kearney, a global management consulting firm, has interviewed CEOs and CFOs of the world's largest 1,000 firms about their opinions of
various FDI destinations and their investment intentions. Responses, views of 68 countries, which receive more than 90 percent of global FDI, reveal likely foreign direct
investment flows and point to the factors that drive corporate decisions to invest abroad. Companies included in the survey are responsible for about 70 percent of global FDI flows
and generate more than $27 trillion in annual revenues representing all major regions and sectors.




                                                                                        3
As a result of significant growth of ASEAN countries from FDI, the developing

world is competing to have a larger ‘share of the FDI pie’. Wheeler and Mody (1992)

describe the competition between host countries to attract foreign investors to their

respective countries as ‘location tournaments’ in which host countries are trying to attract

FDI by making available substantial incentives to attract TNCs to their homeland. Desire

for FDI may encourage governments to adopt competitive and investment oriented

economic policies (Dunning, 1994). The governments are setting up agencies to attract

FDI (Dicken and Tickell, 1992; Mudambi, 1999). For more than 15 years now, emerging

markets are vying with each other for getting a larger share of the global FDI pie. During

1991-96 over one hundred countries made a total of 599 changes to liberalize FDI

regulations, in 1997 alone, 76 countries made 151 liberalization changes (United Nations,

2005). A Large number of such countries are in Asia (Sethi et al, 2003). Countries

continue to adopt new laws and regulations with a view to making their investment

environments investor friendly. Out of 271 such changes pertaining to FDI introduced in

2004, 235 involved steps to open up new areas to FDI along with new promotional

measures. In addition, more than 20 countries lowered their corporate income taxes in

their bid to attract higher FDI (WIR, 2005). In order to attract FDI, at the international

level, the number of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and double taxation treaties

(DTTs) increased to an all time high of 2,392 and 2,559 respectively in 2004, with

developing countries concluding more of such treaties with other developing countries

(UNCTAD, 2005).




                                              4
The global trade is undergoing a significant transformation and there is an

opportunity for the developing and underdeveloped nations to utilize this opportunity to

their advantage by giving up restrictive old patterns of thought and pursuing economic

growth. World Bank report (World Development Indicators, 2003) suggests that

globalization is giving an opportunity to emerging markets to integrate their economies

and societies with the modern unified world. Globalization can mean rapid growth and

poverty reduction in countries like China and India that were poor twenty years back.

During the period 1990-99, 125 million people were moved out of poverty because of

globalization. Highlighting consequences of globalization a Goldman Sachs study:

'Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050' reports, that the BRICs economies (Brazil,

Russia, India and China) together could be larger than the G8 in dollar terms in less than

40 years from now. China has been growing at the rate of around 9% annually

consistently for more than a decade now and doubled its GDP in last six years but other

countries have not seen such a consistent growth as China. On the one hand when there is

an opportunity, there is a threat of losing out on the growth train. Emerging markets need

to strategize their resources to achieve growth. This is the right time for emerging

markets to learn from leaders in attracting foreign investment and formulate ambitious

growth plans.



       Emerging markets have an option to grow faster if the current trend of

globalization continues in the future. It is important to define the term emerging market

for common understanding. The term Emerging Market Economies (EME) was coined by

Atoine W.Van Agtamael of IFC World Bank, in 1981. An EME was defined as an




                                             5
economy with low-to-middle per capita income, which constitutes 80% of world

population, and represents 20% of world economies. It relates to business and market

activity in industrializing or emerging regions of the world. The term EME was used for

emerging economies that are in a phase of transition (Appendix I). Prahlad, 2005

elaborates on the definition, meaning, and the significance of ‘emerging markets’ in the

global economy. Although, there is no standard definition of which countries are

considered as emerging markets, but the Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Index (MSEI)

gives a list of 25 such countries (Appendix I). US Department of Agriculture defines

EME as a country that is taking steps towards a market oriented economy, has a per

capita of less than $10k and is having a population of 1million or more, and is a market

for US agriculture products. The list includes China and India. The Economist also lists

the same group of 25countries as MSEI with an exception of adding three more countries

(Hong Kong, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia) which are excluded from the MSEI list.

University of Iowa, Iowa Center for Financial Development analyses the impact of

‘Emerging Economies’ on global trade and concludes that the ‘big-five’ EMEs- China,

India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia can contribute 16.1% of global trade in 2020 as compared

to 7.8% in 1992. The expected future growth might not be evenly distributed amongst all

the EME’s but can go to the market that creates structures and policies to benefit from it.



       Although India is on the radar of the global investors and has attracted lot of

media attention in last few years due to ‘Outsourcing’ and ‘BPO services’ from US and

EU, it has been a laggard in opening its economy to foreign direct investment (Bajpai and

Sachs, 2000). On the other hand, China has attracted ten times more FDI than India and




                                             6
grown at a faster pace to become three times larger economy as compared to India. India

has to learn a lesson from China. Though the AT Kearney confidence index1 ranks India

($5 billion) second after China ($ 60 billion) in FDI attractiveness but the gap between

the two seems significant and the investor confidence for India has to yet translate into

actual flows comparable to China. What has made China the leader in absorbing FDI?

What led to the growth of FDI to China in last 20-25 years that transformed China from

being a $ 300 billion economy to becoming a $ 2.2 trillion economy? What determines

the inflow of FDI in host emerging markets is an interesting question? What determines

FDI inflow to India and how India can learn from the Chinese experience to improve its

flows and grow at a faster pace, is the central thesis of this paper. Blonigen and Davies

(2004) state that the factors that determine FDI into developed countries are different

from the factors that govern the FDI flows to the less developed countries. The

differences are not yet captured adequately in empirical specifications that need to be

estimated. This dissertation intends to fill that gap. From a philosophical perspective,

laggards in emerging markets can learn from leaders, increase their foreign direct

investment inflows, and grow at a higher rate. Countries with high population such as

Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria (PIN) can adopt this model of growth and grow their

economies. Also, countries in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan countries are still isolated

from global market and need to integrate into the global trade (Lee, 2005). These laggard

countries can learn from the experience of leading emerging markets and develop their

economies.




                                             7
Research purpose



       What are the drivers of foreign investment in the emerging markets? Emerging

markets cannot defy the concepts of developmental economics. Economies have to

transition from agriculture to manufacturing to services. Most developed economies such

as the USA, Japan, Germany, and UK have followed that route. Even within the BRIC

economies, the current developing economies such as China, Russia, and Brazil have

followed the same route. However, some emerging markets such as India seem to have

defied the pattern and skipped the manufacturing sector.



       The current stress in India is on services that contribute more than half of the

economic growth. While cashing on the current Internet and telecommunications induced

boom apparently seems to be a rational opportunistic behavior but supplementing it with

manufacturing activity is desirable. Otherwise India might miss that phase and as China

grows, consumption might increase, resources might become scarce, and efficiency

seeking manufacturing might shift to other countries. Thus, having a developed service

sector growth is good but it has to be supplemented with if not preceded by a

manufacturing sector growth. India has to take emergent steps to augment its

manufacturing activity. There is not much manufacturing activity in the country and the

country is flooded with Chinese goods. Whatever limited manufacturing is there it is in

the skill intensive sectors such as in forgings, automobile component manufacturing, etc.

The skill intensive and service sector growth has resulted in ‘jobless’ growth. One part of

the population is untouched by the current economic boom. One geographical region of




                                             8
peninsular India is experiencing rapid growth, the other part of the country is unaffected

by this growth. The growth pattern does no seem balanced and appears to be lopsided.

China started with intensive manufacturing in Shenzhen and graduated into services

sector in Shanghai but India seems to have missed the manufacturing sector growth. The

growth in India does not appear to be balanced and seems to be lopsided in terms of

sector, demography, intent, and class of the society. The current pattern of growth might

create pressure on the inadequate infrastructure and put burden on the urban areas.

Continued services sector growth might lead to migration of significantly larger labor

force to urban areas and might create social tension.



       Development has to be compatible with demographics. The central, northern, and

eastern states in India that are not as developed can be integrated in the current growth.

India has to create conducive business climate suited to attract manufacturing. Strategic

structural changes have to be made to create a strategic infrastructure suited to export

oriented manufacturing and move away from import substituting manufacturing model

being currently adopted. A relatively faster route to augment export oriented

infrastructure and keep transactions cost low is to develop coastal areas of Bihar, and

Orissa to impact development in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Uttaranchal, Uttar

Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Jharkhand States. Strategic policy initiatives can provide

economic freedom, open up the economy to trade, create flexible labor laws, attract

Diaspora, and lead to an overall balanced and sustainable economic growth. The purpose

of this research is to highlight this balanced pattern of growth by attracting FDI in right

places, sector, strategic intent, and for the right segments of the society. The research




                                              9
deliberates on the question- What strategies emerging markets can adopt to attract FDI

and grow their economies?



                               Research motivation



       There are gaps in the literature on FDI from an Indian perspective. There are a

few studies such as Anantaram, 2004 that explore and analyze determinants of FDI in

India at a micro state level and the results cannot be generalized. Wei, 2004 also makes

an attempt to compare China with India but his study is focused on Chinese. There are

only a few studies on FDI in India from Kumar (1989), and Venktachalam (2000) as

compared to myriad studies on China, East- Asia, and ASEAN countries. There are not

enough studies on how India can learn and improve from China. There is no study that is

from the Indian standpoint that combines national level and state level factors and that

suggests concrete steps in learning from Chinese experience. For example, a search for

the terms ‘China and India’ and ‘Foreign Direct Investment’ on Proquest online search

for dissertations and peer reviewed academic journals returned only six entries. Of these

only three are relevant. Of the three relevant dissertations, first discusses the FDI from

Chinese perspective and makes a passing reference to India, the second discusses the role

of overseas Chinese investment, and the third discusses the ASEAN economies. There is

no study from the Indian perspective. This study intends and attempts to fill that gap.

Theoretically, the study might help philosophize the lessons emerging market laggards

need to learn from the leaders in transforming their economies in a globalized scenario.




                                             10
Chapter 2



                    FDI impacts development in emerging markets



The benefits of FDI to the TNC and the host country are many. Theoretically, the

literature suggests that TNC’s provide many benefit to the emerging markets, some of

them are:



       There is lack of sufficient internal capital in emerging markets as the governments

are devoid of resources, the private sector does not have enough capital, and the country

lacks the know-how to invest in relatively large projects. The savings in these markets are

not enough to create intrinsic economic growth. Therefore, emerging markets need

foreign capital for growth. FDI is one of the major sources of foreign capital for these

countries [Seid (1988); Srinivasan (2002); Jenson (2003)]. TNCs and emerging markets

get into a symbiotic relationship whereby TNC provides capital in lieu of seeking

efficiency and/or market access (Dunning, 1996). FDI is considered important driver for

economic development particularly for the developing countries (Borensztein, De

Gregorio, Lee, 1998). TNC’s bringing capital into a host country, allows the country to

free capital from unproductive investments and utilize it in infrastructure development.

For example, China, the fastest growing country in the world growing at 9% pa for last

ten years, has received 90% of its foreign investment through FDI and built its

infrastructure. Growth of FDI stock in a country impacts economic development by

optimizing inputs, promoting exports, attracting further FDI, promoting domestic




                                            11

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Fdi india and china

  • 1. Comparative Analysis of FDI in China and India Can Laggards Learn from Leaders? Swapna S. Sinha DISSERTATION.COM Boca Raton
  • 2. Comparative Analysis of FDI in China and India: Can Laggards Learn from Leaders? Copyright © 2007 Swapna S. Sinha All rights reserved. Dissertation.com Boca Raton, Florida USA • 2008 ISBN-10: 1-58112- 398-1 ISBN-13: 978-1-58112-398-2
  • 3. Golden Gate University COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CHINA AND INDIA: CAN LAGGARDS LEARN FROM LEADERS? A Dissertation Submitted to The Faculty of the Ageno School of Business In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration By Swapna S. Sinha Copyright material Number ©3251222 San Francisco, California January 2007 Golden Gate University Doctor of Business Administration Program
  • 4.
  • 5. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter number Chapter name Page List of Tables Iv List of Appendix v-vi Abstract Vii Acknowledgement viii-x Chapter 1 Introduction: 1-10 Research purpose Research motivation Chapter 2 FDI impacts development in emerging markets: 11-17 Studies on benefits of FDI Chapter 3 Literature review: 18-42 Why firms engage in FDI? Inter-firm Rivalry Theory Vernon’s Product Life-cycle Theory Resource Based View Dunning’s Eclectic Paradigm Theory Caves’ Vertical vs. Horizontal FDI Theory Macroeconomic Theories Export Platform Theory Endurance Theory of FDI Linear Synergies Theory of FDI What are the determinants of FDI? Chapter 4 Why laggards are falling behind? 43-102 Factors Restricting laggard’s attractiveness i
  • 6. Infrastructural bottlenecks Manufacturing vs. service sector growth Bureaucracy and policy making Hypotheses development The Indian Model of FDI Measures tested in OLS & Autoregressive models Statistical analysis of Indian FDI Chapter 5 Congenial business climate leads to FDI: 103-107 Leader’s Model of attractiveness Structural changes Strategic infrastructure Strategic policy initiatives Chapter 6 Testimony from leaders in the race: China- The more evolved emerging 108-141 market: China’s achievements and comparison with India Shanghai and modern infrastructure Shenzhen SEZ creation and development Providing economic freedom and creating openness 1978-2005 Diaspora attraction Flexible labor Laws Chapter 7 Hypotheses development 142-147 Control variables Chapter 8 Research Methodology: 148-158 Design Variables Measures for testing Data Analysis OLS and Autoregressive Models ii
  • 7. Chapter 9 Empirical Findings: 159-168 OLS Model Results Autoregressive Model Results Chapter 10 How laggards can benefit from leaders? 168-207 Policy recommendations: Creating a Congenial Business Climate Duplicating success stories- DMRC & Golden Quadrilateral Powering confidence in electricity reforms Infrastructure development by using reserves & PSU- offloading Overcoming service sector myopia From service sector core competence to dynamic capabilities Paradigm shift towards skill-neutral mass manufacturing Rapid formation and showcasing of large but few SEZ’s on east coast Freedom and parity to TNCs by PSU-offloading and tariff reduction Leveraging Diaspora strength- ‘Chun- Hui’ program Hire- and- Fire Chapter 11 Discussion & Conclusions 208-210 Chapter 12 Academic & Managerial Contribution 211-213 Chapter 13 Limitations and Future research 214 Appendix I-XXII 215-241 References 242-266 iii
  • 8. LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Emerging Market Laggard- India FDI Model 1(I) OLS Regression Method 97 Table 2: Indian FDI Model 1(I) Correlation Matrix 98 Table 3: Indian FDI Model 1(I) VIF-Model 98 Table 4: Indian FDI Model 1 (II) Autoregressive Regression Method 100 Table 5: Indian FDI Model (II) Correlation matrix 101 Table 6: Indian FDI Model (II) VIF-Model 102 Table 7: Emerging Market Leader- China FDI Model 1 (I) OLS Regression Method 160 Table 8: China FDI Model (I) Correlation Matrix 161 Table 9: China FDI Model (I) VIF-Model 163 Table 10: China FDI Model (II) Autoregressive Regression Method 165 Table 11: China FDI Model (II) Correlation matrix 167 Table 12: China FDI Model (II) VIF-Model 168 iv
  • 9. List of Appendices Appendix I Global Emerging Markets 216 Appendix II IMD Competitiveness Indicators, 2005 IMF 216 Appendix III Manufacturing Wage Rate-India & Other Mkts., IMF 2006 217 Appendix IV India’s Export Performance vs. Asia, IMF 2006 no. 06/56 217 Appendix V Investment Climate Indicators, World Dev. Report 2005 218 Appendix VI Trade and Tariffs, Planning Commission of India, mid- term Review Tenth Plan 2002-2007, 1, WTO 2005 219 Appendix VII Leading Exporters in World Merchandise Trade, WTO 2003 220 Appendix VIII Leading Export Destinations- World, 2004, US Dept Commerce 221 Appendix IX Leading Importers in World Merchandise Trade, WTO 2004 222 Appendix X Constituents of Indian FDI Data, 1991-2006, MOCI, GOI 223 Appendix XI Sources of FDI inflow to India, 191-2005, MOCI, GOI 224 Appendix XII Sector Wise FDI Inflows to India, 1991-2005, MOCI, GOI 225 Appendix XIII FDI & GFC Formation in emerging markets, UNCTAD 226 Appendix XIV China’s share of Manufacturing vs. Services sector, UNCTAD 227 Appendix XV Paradigm Shift FDI to Emerging Markets, 1980-2003, UNCTAD 227 Appendix XVI Chinese Merchandise Export impact EM, UNDP, 2006 228 Appendix XVII China’s World Trade Balances, 1984- 2005, IMF 2006 229 Appendix XVIII Distances between Chinese and Indian coasts to largest markets 230 Appendix XIX SEZ Benefits offered in China, Globalsorces.com 231-233 Appendix XX State wise Literacy rates in India 1951-2001, India Budget.nic.in 234 v
  • 10. Appendix XXI Share of World Manufacturing: China vs. India Trend from 1993-2003 (EIU, 2006) 235 Appendix XXII China’s FDI inflows compared with Indian Inflows 1990-2005 In EIU, 2006, from UNCTAD 2006 235 Appendix XXIII Population of India 1951-2001, India Budget.nic.in 236 Appendix XXIV Geographical Map of China (EIU, 2006) 237 Appendix XXV Geographical Map of India (EIU, 2006) 238 Appendix XXVI Chinese SEZs Locations (Liu, 2005) 239 Appendix XXVII Chinese Strategic Infrastructure (Liu, 2005) 240 Appendix XXVIII Examples of Corruption and Bureaucratic inefficiency 241 vi
  • 11. Abstract Some emerging markets have been leaders in the world and have grown at a higher rate benefiting from higher Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) by Trans National Corporations (TNCs) and some have been laggards and have not able to attract as much FDI and grow that efficiently. Why China gets 60 billion dollars FDI annually as compared to India which does not even get 6 billion dollars, is an intriguing question? This dissertation explores the determinants of FDI in such emerging economies to answer the above question. What has India done till now to attract FDI? What has been China’s strategy to become the most FDI attracting country in the world? What lessons India can learn from China and improve its FDI inflow? The study attempts to theorize what lessons emerging markets that are laggards in attracting FDI, such as India, can learn from leader countries in attracting FDI, such as China in the global economy. This study fills the gap in the literature by analyzing the Indian data at the relevant micro state level for the period 1992-2005 and comparing it with the Chinese data for period of 1978-2005 at the economic zone level. Indian FDI attraction model was tested using OLS and autoregressive models and it was found that India has grown due to its human capital, size of the market, rate of growth of the market, and political stability. For China, congenial business climate factors comprising of making structural changes, creating strategic infrastructure at SEZs, and taking strategic policy initiatives of providing economic freedom, opening up its economy, attracting diaspora, and creating flexible labor laws were identified as drivers for attracting FDI and the model using these variables was tested with OLS regression and autoregressive regression analysis and were found significant. This study might help countries such as PIN (Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria) which, will follow the BRIC economies in growth, want to grow, to broaden their understanding and formulate policies to attract FDI. At the enterprise level, it might help TNCs in understanding markets and formulating entry and growth strategies in these markets. vii
  • 12. ACKNOWLEGEMENTS This research would not have been possible without the support of my family, friends, and faculty members from Golden Gate University. I am highly indebted to each one who provided the motivation to undertake this research project and helped me in building the content of this work and successfully completing it. I express gratitude to Dr. Nabil Rageh, Director of the DBA program and a University of Berkeley educated professor who is a very humble man, has been very supportive to me, and provided encouragement from the starting of the program to the end. I would like to convey my special thanks to Dr Hamid Shomali, UCLA educated professor, the committee chair who has been a constant source of guidance to me ever since I joined the doctoral program. He has been constantly providing new inputs, challenging me to push my self, and utilize the feedback in developing this dissertation. I have benefited immensely from his intellect, personality, and down to earth pragmatism. I would also like to mention the unique contribution of Dr. Bezabeh to my work that provided current inputs from the international business arena and enriched the content of this dissertation. Dr. Miro Costa, apart from being the architect of the quantitative analysis of the dissertation, has been a constant friend, philosopher, and guide to me. I shall never forget Dr. Costa’s contribution, concern, and providing help to me during the most testing times in my life. I highly appreciate Dr. David Kent and Dr. William Moore to have agreed to review the dissertation and provide their valuable inputs to make suitable improvements and enhance the quality of this dissertation work. viii
  • 13. Dr. Sharmila Chatterjee, a Wharton Business School graduate and currently a professor at Sloan Management School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology provided constant support and encouragement during the crucial stages in the doctoral program. This work has also been influenced by my learned colleague Tony Deleon, a Harvard and Wharton educated management professional who constantly challenged me to look at the same content form different perspectives during the entire doctoral program. I was highly influenced by Tony’s style of writing and research. Another doctoral colleague Kevin Silverra helped me greatly in the statistical and quantitative analysis. The Golden Gate University library was the place where I learnt the most. One of the most memorable experiences was meeting and knowing Janice Carter who was always ready to help me out with the doctoral course work and dissertation research work. Gilles Poitras, Larry Burg, Chae Sunday, and Christina also shaped my dissertation work. Larry would mark every single article he read on India or China and that helped in framing a perspective on certain issues. My wife Monica has been my valuable asset and an adorable friend. She was by my side and helped me in taking this daunting challenge of my life. I can never repay her those beautiful moments of her life that she lost in helping me to achieve this objective of pursuing the DBA program but during the moments we shared while pursuing this doctoral program, I discovered a new woman in her. She has read my dissertation many times, provided inputs, and is now looking forward to visit Shanghai and Shenzhen with ix
  • 14. me. My daughters Eva-Eti have been my anchors in life and whenever I was in troubled moments, just being with them I felt energized and found a new meaning in life. This dissertation is dedicated to my grandmother Late Bhagwati Devi, my father Late Dr. (Major) Ambika Prasad Sinha, and my mother Late Kusum Sinha. I learnt from my father to continuously accept new challenges in life. I learnt stoic, endurance, and sacrifice from my mother. I only wish they were alive today to see their son as a doctor. My brother Dr. Rashmi Punj Sinha has been the most intellectual person in my life who always challenged my routine thinking. My sisters Neel Kamal and Rimjhim filled the void of loosing my mother and have always been beside especially during these last three- half years. My special thanks to Mrs. Neel Kamal Darbari and my brother-in- law T.S. Dabari. I convey many thanks to my wonderful sister Rimjhim Sinha and brother-in-law Dr. Ved Prakash. My childhood friend Ajai Gupta helped in many different ways in taking care of my issues in India during my DBA program. My friends Ajai Singh, Arvind Gupta, Arvind Srivastava, Rajesh Dwivedi, and Ravi Yadav also helped me and provided emotional support and encouragement from time to time including this testing time. As I have to carry this work forward, I would welcome feedback and suggestions from readers at swapnassinha@yahoo.com. x
  • 15. Chapter 1 Introduction Before any discussion can be started on foreign direct investment, it is important to define it for the benefit of readers and for creating common understanding. There are many definitions of the term Foreign Direct Investment, hereinafter referred to as ‘FDI’, but the most commonly accepted is the one given by the IMF. IMF defines FDI as “where an investor residing in one economy owns 10% or more of the ordinary shares or voting power/effective voice in management in another country….. and comprises those entities in the host country that are subsidiaries (> 50% ownership); associates (<= 50% ownership) or branches (wholly or jointly-owned, unincorporated enterprises) of the parent.” (IMF, 1993). A simple definition would be –“An investor based in one country acquires an asset in another country with the intent to manage that asset”. (OECD, 2000) More than two third of the FDI activities (one third as trade between affiliates of the same TNC and another one third between a TNC and another enterprise) are involving Trans National Corporations (Ramamurti, 2004), hereinafter referred to as TNCs. It is important to understand the significance of FDI in global trade and in economic development. Also it is required to understand the shift in FDI towards the developing world, and the future trends of FDI. The global stock of FDI in 2004 stands at $9 trillion (WIR, 2005) which is equal to the total GDP, in 2005, of the three largest economies of the world, after the US- Japan, Germany, and China. Total revenues for the Global 500 TNCs in 2006 add up to $18.9 trillion, a third of the world's GDP. 70,000 1
  • 16. TNCs and their 6, 90, 000 foreign affiliates, contributing $19 trillion in sales, a third of world GDP, create major component of this FDI stock and worldwide FDI flows. GE (US), Vodafone (UK), and Ford (US) are the top three non-financial TNCs worldwide contributing maximum FDI flows. The global FDI in 2005 increased to $730 billion registering a growth of 18% over $648 billion of 2004. Of the total FDI flows, the developed world contributed $637 billion, out of which half is from only three countries- US, UK, and Luxemburg. In 2005 the net outflows from the developed world exceeded the inflows by $260 billion. For the US, the largest economy in the world with $ 12.5 trillion GDP, FDI outflow increased by 90% to $ 229 billion in 2005. The developing world FDI grew by 40% to $ 233 billion in 2004 mainly due to M&A activity and also due to green field FDI rising consecutively for the third year. Studies suggest that FDI flows by TNC’s have transformed international trade in the last two decades and created new giants and a new world order (Blonigen, 2005). For 2006-07, global FDI flows are expected to rise further if economic growth is consolidated and becomes widespread, corporate restructuring takes hold, profit growth persists and the pursuit of new markets continues (UNCTAD, 2005). A study of the existing literature suggests that FDI patterns contributing to the growth of the emerging markets have undergone significant changes over time. The FDI trend in last five years indicates a shift of flows from the developed world to the developing world and emerging markets (Appendix XV). FDI is impacting development in these emerging markets in a significant way. During the 1950-60’s most of the foreign investment came into the developed world and Reuber et al (1973) who studied FDI 2
  • 17. volumes and patterns in various countries, observed that FDI flows into the developed world were disproportionately high when compared to the developing world. Even in the modern times, United States the most developed country in the world, still attracts the highest FDI and in 2005 it absorbed the highest FDI of $ 94.5 billion as compared to China which consumed $ 60 billion only. Till 2000, more than 75% of the trade was within the developed nations of the ‘triad’- US, Europe, and Japan (Porter, 1990; WIR, 2005). According to AT Kearney FDI confidence index 2005 study, even though the US received the highest FDI in 2005 it does not command the number one position, in terms of FDI attractiveness, and trails behind at third position after China and India. In the developing world, the East Asian countries were the pioneers in realizing the potential of FDI from TNC’s in developing their economies. These countries devised strategies to attract FDI to meet their growth objectives (Zhang, 2001; Lall, 1993). As a result of opening up their economies to FDI from TNCs these countries grew rapidly and within a relatively short time period became a significant economic force. These came to be recognized as the "four tigers"--South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. The success of the ‘Asian tigers’ in the last two decades has created a role model for less developed countries. Modern emerging markets can learn lessons from the experience of these tiger economies. East Asia saw a 46% increase in inflows, to reach $105 billion, in 2005 alone, driven largely by a significant increase in flows to Hong Kong (China). 1 Over the past seven years, AT Kearney, a global management consulting firm, has interviewed CEOs and CFOs of the world's largest 1,000 firms about their opinions of various FDI destinations and their investment intentions. Responses, views of 68 countries, which receive more than 90 percent of global FDI, reveal likely foreign direct investment flows and point to the factors that drive corporate decisions to invest abroad. Companies included in the survey are responsible for about 70 percent of global FDI flows and generate more than $27 trillion in annual revenues representing all major regions and sectors. 3
  • 18. As a result of significant growth of ASEAN countries from FDI, the developing world is competing to have a larger ‘share of the FDI pie’. Wheeler and Mody (1992) describe the competition between host countries to attract foreign investors to their respective countries as ‘location tournaments’ in which host countries are trying to attract FDI by making available substantial incentives to attract TNCs to their homeland. Desire for FDI may encourage governments to adopt competitive and investment oriented economic policies (Dunning, 1994). The governments are setting up agencies to attract FDI (Dicken and Tickell, 1992; Mudambi, 1999). For more than 15 years now, emerging markets are vying with each other for getting a larger share of the global FDI pie. During 1991-96 over one hundred countries made a total of 599 changes to liberalize FDI regulations, in 1997 alone, 76 countries made 151 liberalization changes (United Nations, 2005). A Large number of such countries are in Asia (Sethi et al, 2003). Countries continue to adopt new laws and regulations with a view to making their investment environments investor friendly. Out of 271 such changes pertaining to FDI introduced in 2004, 235 involved steps to open up new areas to FDI along with new promotional measures. In addition, more than 20 countries lowered their corporate income taxes in their bid to attract higher FDI (WIR, 2005). In order to attract FDI, at the international level, the number of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and double taxation treaties (DTTs) increased to an all time high of 2,392 and 2,559 respectively in 2004, with developing countries concluding more of such treaties with other developing countries (UNCTAD, 2005). 4
  • 19. The global trade is undergoing a significant transformation and there is an opportunity for the developing and underdeveloped nations to utilize this opportunity to their advantage by giving up restrictive old patterns of thought and pursuing economic growth. World Bank report (World Development Indicators, 2003) suggests that globalization is giving an opportunity to emerging markets to integrate their economies and societies with the modern unified world. Globalization can mean rapid growth and poverty reduction in countries like China and India that were poor twenty years back. During the period 1990-99, 125 million people were moved out of poverty because of globalization. Highlighting consequences of globalization a Goldman Sachs study: 'Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050' reports, that the BRICs economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) together could be larger than the G8 in dollar terms in less than 40 years from now. China has been growing at the rate of around 9% annually consistently for more than a decade now and doubled its GDP in last six years but other countries have not seen such a consistent growth as China. On the one hand when there is an opportunity, there is a threat of losing out on the growth train. Emerging markets need to strategize their resources to achieve growth. This is the right time for emerging markets to learn from leaders in attracting foreign investment and formulate ambitious growth plans. Emerging markets have an option to grow faster if the current trend of globalization continues in the future. It is important to define the term emerging market for common understanding. The term Emerging Market Economies (EME) was coined by Atoine W.Van Agtamael of IFC World Bank, in 1981. An EME was defined as an 5
  • 20. economy with low-to-middle per capita income, which constitutes 80% of world population, and represents 20% of world economies. It relates to business and market activity in industrializing or emerging regions of the world. The term EME was used for emerging economies that are in a phase of transition (Appendix I). Prahlad, 2005 elaborates on the definition, meaning, and the significance of ‘emerging markets’ in the global economy. Although, there is no standard definition of which countries are considered as emerging markets, but the Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Index (MSEI) gives a list of 25 such countries (Appendix I). US Department of Agriculture defines EME as a country that is taking steps towards a market oriented economy, has a per capita of less than $10k and is having a population of 1million or more, and is a market for US agriculture products. The list includes China and India. The Economist also lists the same group of 25countries as MSEI with an exception of adding three more countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia) which are excluded from the MSEI list. University of Iowa, Iowa Center for Financial Development analyses the impact of ‘Emerging Economies’ on global trade and concludes that the ‘big-five’ EMEs- China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia can contribute 16.1% of global trade in 2020 as compared to 7.8% in 1992. The expected future growth might not be evenly distributed amongst all the EME’s but can go to the market that creates structures and policies to benefit from it. Although India is on the radar of the global investors and has attracted lot of media attention in last few years due to ‘Outsourcing’ and ‘BPO services’ from US and EU, it has been a laggard in opening its economy to foreign direct investment (Bajpai and Sachs, 2000). On the other hand, China has attracted ten times more FDI than India and 6
  • 21. grown at a faster pace to become three times larger economy as compared to India. India has to learn a lesson from China. Though the AT Kearney confidence index1 ranks India ($5 billion) second after China ($ 60 billion) in FDI attractiveness but the gap between the two seems significant and the investor confidence for India has to yet translate into actual flows comparable to China. What has made China the leader in absorbing FDI? What led to the growth of FDI to China in last 20-25 years that transformed China from being a $ 300 billion economy to becoming a $ 2.2 trillion economy? What determines the inflow of FDI in host emerging markets is an interesting question? What determines FDI inflow to India and how India can learn from the Chinese experience to improve its flows and grow at a faster pace, is the central thesis of this paper. Blonigen and Davies (2004) state that the factors that determine FDI into developed countries are different from the factors that govern the FDI flows to the less developed countries. The differences are not yet captured adequately in empirical specifications that need to be estimated. This dissertation intends to fill that gap. From a philosophical perspective, laggards in emerging markets can learn from leaders, increase their foreign direct investment inflows, and grow at a higher rate. Countries with high population such as Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria (PIN) can adopt this model of growth and grow their economies. Also, countries in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan countries are still isolated from global market and need to integrate into the global trade (Lee, 2005). These laggard countries can learn from the experience of leading emerging markets and develop their economies. 7
  • 22. Research purpose What are the drivers of foreign investment in the emerging markets? Emerging markets cannot defy the concepts of developmental economics. Economies have to transition from agriculture to manufacturing to services. Most developed economies such as the USA, Japan, Germany, and UK have followed that route. Even within the BRIC economies, the current developing economies such as China, Russia, and Brazil have followed the same route. However, some emerging markets such as India seem to have defied the pattern and skipped the manufacturing sector. The current stress in India is on services that contribute more than half of the economic growth. While cashing on the current Internet and telecommunications induced boom apparently seems to be a rational opportunistic behavior but supplementing it with manufacturing activity is desirable. Otherwise India might miss that phase and as China grows, consumption might increase, resources might become scarce, and efficiency seeking manufacturing might shift to other countries. Thus, having a developed service sector growth is good but it has to be supplemented with if not preceded by a manufacturing sector growth. India has to take emergent steps to augment its manufacturing activity. There is not much manufacturing activity in the country and the country is flooded with Chinese goods. Whatever limited manufacturing is there it is in the skill intensive sectors such as in forgings, automobile component manufacturing, etc. The skill intensive and service sector growth has resulted in ‘jobless’ growth. One part of the population is untouched by the current economic boom. One geographical region of 8
  • 23. peninsular India is experiencing rapid growth, the other part of the country is unaffected by this growth. The growth pattern does no seem balanced and appears to be lopsided. China started with intensive manufacturing in Shenzhen and graduated into services sector in Shanghai but India seems to have missed the manufacturing sector growth. The growth in India does not appear to be balanced and seems to be lopsided in terms of sector, demography, intent, and class of the society. The current pattern of growth might create pressure on the inadequate infrastructure and put burden on the urban areas. Continued services sector growth might lead to migration of significantly larger labor force to urban areas and might create social tension. Development has to be compatible with demographics. The central, northern, and eastern states in India that are not as developed can be integrated in the current growth. India has to create conducive business climate suited to attract manufacturing. Strategic structural changes have to be made to create a strategic infrastructure suited to export oriented manufacturing and move away from import substituting manufacturing model being currently adopted. A relatively faster route to augment export oriented infrastructure and keep transactions cost low is to develop coastal areas of Bihar, and Orissa to impact development in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Jharkhand States. Strategic policy initiatives can provide economic freedom, open up the economy to trade, create flexible labor laws, attract Diaspora, and lead to an overall balanced and sustainable economic growth. The purpose of this research is to highlight this balanced pattern of growth by attracting FDI in right places, sector, strategic intent, and for the right segments of the society. The research 9
  • 24. deliberates on the question- What strategies emerging markets can adopt to attract FDI and grow their economies? Research motivation There are gaps in the literature on FDI from an Indian perspective. There are a few studies such as Anantaram, 2004 that explore and analyze determinants of FDI in India at a micro state level and the results cannot be generalized. Wei, 2004 also makes an attempt to compare China with India but his study is focused on Chinese. There are only a few studies on FDI in India from Kumar (1989), and Venktachalam (2000) as compared to myriad studies on China, East- Asia, and ASEAN countries. There are not enough studies on how India can learn and improve from China. There is no study that is from the Indian standpoint that combines national level and state level factors and that suggests concrete steps in learning from Chinese experience. For example, a search for the terms ‘China and India’ and ‘Foreign Direct Investment’ on Proquest online search for dissertations and peer reviewed academic journals returned only six entries. Of these only three are relevant. Of the three relevant dissertations, first discusses the FDI from Chinese perspective and makes a passing reference to India, the second discusses the role of overseas Chinese investment, and the third discusses the ASEAN economies. There is no study from the Indian perspective. This study intends and attempts to fill that gap. Theoretically, the study might help philosophize the lessons emerging market laggards need to learn from the leaders in transforming their economies in a globalized scenario. 10
  • 25. Chapter 2 FDI impacts development in emerging markets The benefits of FDI to the TNC and the host country are many. Theoretically, the literature suggests that TNC’s provide many benefit to the emerging markets, some of them are: There is lack of sufficient internal capital in emerging markets as the governments are devoid of resources, the private sector does not have enough capital, and the country lacks the know-how to invest in relatively large projects. The savings in these markets are not enough to create intrinsic economic growth. Therefore, emerging markets need foreign capital for growth. FDI is one of the major sources of foreign capital for these countries [Seid (1988); Srinivasan (2002); Jenson (2003)]. TNCs and emerging markets get into a symbiotic relationship whereby TNC provides capital in lieu of seeking efficiency and/or market access (Dunning, 1996). FDI is considered important driver for economic development particularly for the developing countries (Borensztein, De Gregorio, Lee, 1998). TNC’s bringing capital into a host country, allows the country to free capital from unproductive investments and utilize it in infrastructure development. For example, China, the fastest growing country in the world growing at 9% pa for last ten years, has received 90% of its foreign investment through FDI and built its infrastructure. Growth of FDI stock in a country impacts economic development by optimizing inputs, promoting exports, attracting further FDI, promoting domestic 11