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Capital District Heating Project

A Partnership of the City of Montpelier and the
              State of Vermont




                                     June 8, 2011
District Heat --

    Project History

              Early 1990s – Montpelier Community Energy System
              first conceived and discussed with City Council.

              Late 1990s – Community Renewable Energy (CORE) ; a
              collaboration of Chittenden County Regional Planning
              Commission, Central Vermont Regional Planning
              Commission and others work to develop and advance
              the concept of district energy in Vermont.

              2000/2001 -- CORE worked with City of Montpelier to collect
              energy use information on buildings located in the Montpelier
              downtown area.

              A preliminary study of a district energy system was completed
              by CANMET. The report found that community scale project
              was feasible.
                                                                              …
District Heat --

    Project History, cont.

          Also in 2000, the Montpelier City/State Commission completed the
          Capital District Master Plan – district energy was one of ten key
          elements identified in the plan.

          2002 to 2004 – Three studies were carried out with funding from
          the USDA Forest Service and the Department of Energy.

          - 2003 – City of Montpelier votes a $250,000 bond for district
          energy.

          2005 to 2006 State of Vermont completes engineering studies of
          the existing boiler plant. The first study analyzed the available
          capacity; second study preliminary design and cost for
          modernizing and expanding.

          2006 – BERC with DOE funding updates the Montpelier downtown
          building/energy survey of 2000.
                                                                              …
District Heat --

    Project History, cont.

       2008 – BERC updates CANMET study, considers ‘Montpelier Only’
       design.


       - 2009 – Community re-votes the District Energy Bond


       - 2010 – City of Montpelier awarded $8Million DOE Community
       Renewable Energy grant.
District Heat --


  What have been the goals of these studies?
     To evaluate the feasibility of



          • Use community-scale technology

          • Replace fossil fuels with local biomass

          • Use efficient, clean technology

          • Harvest fuels with sustainable practices
District Heat --

       What is District Energy?




                                  Central Energy
                                      Plant
District Heat --
   The Heat Plant
District Heat --   Current Proposed Routing
District Heat --   The Pipe
District Heat --   The Pipe
Existing Fuel Oil Boilers




 Montpelier High School, 1998




                                Union Elementary School, 1992
District Heat --
           Heat Exchanger
District Heat --
                     ~80 Tons              ~73 Tons
‘Phase 1’
                     NOx, SO2,             NOx, SO2,
   Air                                                      - 7 Tons
Emissions            PM, CO,               PM, CO,
                       HAPs                  HAPs




                 4 Tons             4 Tons                 - 4 Tons
              NOx, SO2, PM,      NOx, SO2, PM,
               CO, HAPs           CO, HAPs




                                 Total Emissions Reduction 11 Tons
Timeline
  May 6, 2011 – Governor Signs Charter Change

    May 19, 2011 – Draft Final EA – FONSI

      May 20, 2011 – Governor Signs Capital Bill

        June 14, 2011 - City Bond Vote

          Summer 2011 - Preliminary Design of Plant and Distribution
                                         System
              Fall 2011 -
                       Final Design Heat Plant and Distribution System
                       Permitting Central Heat Plant
                       Order Major Equipment
                       Initiate Construction
                       2012 – Main construction period

                            Spring 2013 –      Project Comes Online
Current Fuel Costs
   Currently MHS & UES consume ~ 80,000 gallons of
   fuel oil each year
                         Union Elementary School
                                                        Average Price Per
       Fiscal Year    Total Gallons        Total Cost        Gallon
       FY11 to date      31,613              93,096           2.94
          FY10           42,126              98,254           2.33
          FY09           36,580              65,262           1.78
          FY08           39,467             118,165           2.99
          FY07           45,782              94,051           2.05
          FY06           45,355              93,857           2.07


                           Montpelier High School
                                                        Average Price Per
       Fiscal Year    Total Gallons        Total Cost        Gallon
       FY11 to date      30,005              86,927           2.90
          FY10           40,515              94,096           2.32
          FY09           36,653              64,662           1.76
          FY08           28,709              89,760           3.13
          FY07           25,510              48,165           1.89
          FY06           41,807              84,883           2.03




    FY12 Budget: UES = $108,264; MHS= $104,124
City Hall/Fire Station          Police Station
  Year       Gallons   Price     Cost   Gallons    Price        Cost
2011 (YDT)   17,866    $2.04   $41,342 2,920       $2.62        $7,672
2010         18,889    $2.04   $37,699 3,839       $1.95        $7,499
2009         20,639    $3.19   $61,623 2,684       $2.28        $8,149
2008         19,214    $2.19   $42,228 4,019       $2.28        $9,052
2007         19,214    $2.19   $42,228 4,019       $2.28        $9,052
2006         19,514    $2.10   $41,057 3,895       $2.10        $8,180
Total Cost Accounting--
     “BAU” vs District Heat Project
Future Cost of Fuel Oil
Crude oil is generally tracked as West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) or Cushing OK

Pricing of WTI, a commonly referenced ‘benchmark’ for fuel oil pricing




                      Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics   21
WTI Pricing is variable , but follows a general increasing trend




                          Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics   22
EIA Produces Annual Energy Outlook;
AEO 2011
What does this mean to the case at hand?
      We can translate the AEO forecasts of
      Crude oil to refined product, and present
      it as the three cases
Can overlay the fuel price forecast using in
analysis of District Heat Project
And add in actual past price information
Comparison of actual oil prices paid to
forecasts


                                                           High Oil Case

          City Hall Actual                                             Reference
                                                                         Case




                                                                     “Moody’s”

 EIA Actual


                                                                      Low Oil Case



The actual price being paid for fuel oil is running ahead of EIA’s high
forecast             Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics       27
Paul Frederick , 2009 VT School Wood Chip Users Conference, February, 2008
Financial Impact:

      • Among the 5 City and School Buildings an
        estimated $300,000 is budgeted in FY12 to
        purchase Fuel Oil

      • The cost of Fuel Oil can only be expected to go
        up in future years; the question is by how much?

      • Based on price projections from EIA, the annual
        cost to heat these 5 buildings in 2020 could
        range from $372,000 to $632,000

      • The Capital District Heating Project presents an
        opportunity to stabilize costs, invest locally, improve
        environmental quality and convert an operating
        expense into a community investment
FUNDING SOURCES:

Federal Dept. of Energy         $8.00 Million
State of Vermont Capital Bill   $7.00 Million
Montpelier Bond/CEDF Loan       $2.75 Million
CEDF Grant                      $1.00 Million

Total Cash                      $18.75 Million

State of Vermont “in kind”      $1.20 Million

TOTAL project                   $19.95 Million
MUNICIPAL BOND/LOAN

Vermont Municipal Bond Bank              $2.00 Million

Clean Energy Development Fund Loan $0.75 Million
(1% interest, repayment deferred until project is cash
positive)


TOTAL                                    $2.75 Million
TWO PROJECTS IN ONE
STATE – Heating Plant Improvements and Expansion
                              $13.85 Million Cash
                              $1.20 Million In Kind

CITY – Distribution System            $4.90 Million
Cash

Total                          $18.75 Million Cash
                               $19.95 Million overall
KEY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS

• City/School costs will consist of bond payment and wholesale
  cost of biomass generated heat from the State.

• Annual expenses will fall within current annual City/School
  expenses for oil heat. Will not require additional tax dollars

• Financial Projections do not include or rely upon potential
  revenue from private customers. No speculation with regard to
  future users.

• Revenues from future users will be set in reserve for future
  capacity needs and/or distribution system expansion. Such
  future costs should not come from tax dollars.
OPERATIONS
 • Master Contract with state for rates, capacity and whole sale
   purchase of thermal units

 • City will resell heat to private customers using meters and
   retail rates established to cover costs and future expansion.

 • City already maintains subservice distribution systems with
   metering and billing.

 • City will engage firm with specific district heat expertise to
   assist with system operation.

 • Future option might include creation of separate utility or
   independent non-profit to manage the system.
CONCERNS & CHALLENGES
• $18.75 Million in cash available for project, $1.2 million “in
  kind”.

• Current combined estimates run as high as $19.7 to $20.5
  with high contingencies and unknowns.

• MOU is complete but master contract is not.

• Impact of project overruns on scope and quality

• One project meets budget and the other doesn’t.

• Additional bonding for the city.

• Schools are key players but also high cost.

• Construction disruption.
ADDRESSING CONCERNS
• City and State engineers working cooperatively to develop
  project within available funding.

• MOU discussions laid ground work for master contract. Many
  topics have already been introduced and framed.

• Multiple opportunities to review estimates, internal funding
  allocations and bid results. Will not proceed if it costs too
  much.

• Cost of debt service on bond covered by current fuel costs,
  should not preclude future bonding if desired. Council has
  created committee to look at debt levels and policies. Annual
  GF debt service to drop $88,000 (13%) over next five years.

• Potential alternatives for schools if necessary.

• All projects create disruption. Will be managed as tightly as
  possible.
BIG DECISION!
Voting is on Tuesday, June 14th from 7:00 AM to 7:00
PM at City Hall


Absentee ballots available now
END
EIA --
           Short-Term Energy Outlook
           June 7, 2011 Release

(Next update July 12, 2011)

World benchmark crude oil prices reached their highest level of this year at the end of April, fell
by about 10 percent by May 9 and have changed very little since then. EIA still expects oil
markets to tighten through 2012 given projected world oil demand growth and slowing growth in
supply from countries that are not members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC). The projected U.S. refiner crude oil average acquisition cost rises from $104
per barrel in 2011 to $108 per barrel in 2012, about the same as last month's Outlook.
Historical Price Paid for Fuel Oil; City Hall
Crude oil is generally tracked as West Texas
Intermediate (WTI)

Historical Pricing of WTI
District Heat - Powerpoint presentation

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District Heat - Powerpoint presentation

  • 1. Capital District Heating Project A Partnership of the City of Montpelier and the State of Vermont June 8, 2011
  • 2. District Heat -- Project History Early 1990s – Montpelier Community Energy System first conceived and discussed with City Council. Late 1990s – Community Renewable Energy (CORE) ; a collaboration of Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission, Central Vermont Regional Planning Commission and others work to develop and advance the concept of district energy in Vermont. 2000/2001 -- CORE worked with City of Montpelier to collect energy use information on buildings located in the Montpelier downtown area. A preliminary study of a district energy system was completed by CANMET. The report found that community scale project was feasible. …
  • 3. District Heat -- Project History, cont. Also in 2000, the Montpelier City/State Commission completed the Capital District Master Plan – district energy was one of ten key elements identified in the plan. 2002 to 2004 – Three studies were carried out with funding from the USDA Forest Service and the Department of Energy. - 2003 – City of Montpelier votes a $250,000 bond for district energy. 2005 to 2006 State of Vermont completes engineering studies of the existing boiler plant. The first study analyzed the available capacity; second study preliminary design and cost for modernizing and expanding. 2006 – BERC with DOE funding updates the Montpelier downtown building/energy survey of 2000. …
  • 4. District Heat -- Project History, cont. 2008 – BERC updates CANMET study, considers ‘Montpelier Only’ design. - 2009 – Community re-votes the District Energy Bond - 2010 – City of Montpelier awarded $8Million DOE Community Renewable Energy grant.
  • 5. District Heat -- What have been the goals of these studies? To evaluate the feasibility of • Use community-scale technology • Replace fossil fuels with local biomass • Use efficient, clean technology • Harvest fuels with sustainable practices
  • 6. District Heat -- What is District Energy? Central Energy Plant
  • 7. District Heat -- The Heat Plant
  • 8.
  • 9. District Heat -- Current Proposed Routing
  • 10. District Heat -- The Pipe
  • 11. District Heat -- The Pipe
  • 12. Existing Fuel Oil Boilers Montpelier High School, 1998 Union Elementary School, 1992
  • 13. District Heat -- Heat Exchanger
  • 14. District Heat -- ~80 Tons ~73 Tons ‘Phase 1’ NOx, SO2, NOx, SO2, Air - 7 Tons Emissions PM, CO, PM, CO, HAPs HAPs 4 Tons 4 Tons - 4 Tons NOx, SO2, PM, NOx, SO2, PM, CO, HAPs CO, HAPs Total Emissions Reduction 11 Tons
  • 15. Timeline May 6, 2011 – Governor Signs Charter Change May 19, 2011 – Draft Final EA – FONSI May 20, 2011 – Governor Signs Capital Bill June 14, 2011 - City Bond Vote Summer 2011 - Preliminary Design of Plant and Distribution System Fall 2011 - Final Design Heat Plant and Distribution System Permitting Central Heat Plant Order Major Equipment Initiate Construction 2012 – Main construction period Spring 2013 – Project Comes Online
  • 16. Current Fuel Costs Currently MHS & UES consume ~ 80,000 gallons of fuel oil each year Union Elementary School Average Price Per Fiscal Year Total Gallons Total Cost Gallon FY11 to date 31,613 93,096 2.94 FY10 42,126 98,254 2.33 FY09 36,580 65,262 1.78 FY08 39,467 118,165 2.99 FY07 45,782 94,051 2.05 FY06 45,355 93,857 2.07 Montpelier High School Average Price Per Fiscal Year Total Gallons Total Cost Gallon FY11 to date 30,005 86,927 2.90 FY10 40,515 94,096 2.32 FY09 36,653 64,662 1.76 FY08 28,709 89,760 3.13 FY07 25,510 48,165 1.89 FY06 41,807 84,883 2.03 FY12 Budget: UES = $108,264; MHS= $104,124
  • 17. City Hall/Fire Station Police Station Year Gallons Price Cost Gallons Price Cost 2011 (YDT) 17,866 $2.04 $41,342 2,920 $2.62 $7,672 2010 18,889 $2.04 $37,699 3,839 $1.95 $7,499 2009 20,639 $3.19 $61,623 2,684 $2.28 $8,149 2008 19,214 $2.19 $42,228 4,019 $2.28 $9,052 2007 19,214 $2.19 $42,228 4,019 $2.28 $9,052 2006 19,514 $2.10 $41,057 3,895 $2.10 $8,180
  • 18. Total Cost Accounting-- “BAU” vs District Heat Project
  • 19. Future Cost of Fuel Oil
  • 20.
  • 21. Crude oil is generally tracked as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or Cushing OK Pricing of WTI, a commonly referenced ‘benchmark’ for fuel oil pricing Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics 21
  • 22. WTI Pricing is variable , but follows a general increasing trend Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics 22
  • 23. EIA Produces Annual Energy Outlook; AEO 2011
  • 24. What does this mean to the case at hand? We can translate the AEO forecasts of Crude oil to refined product, and present it as the three cases
  • 25. Can overlay the fuel price forecast using in analysis of District Heat Project
  • 26. And add in actual past price information
  • 27. Comparison of actual oil prices paid to forecasts High Oil Case City Hall Actual Reference Case “Moody’s” EIA Actual Low Oil Case The actual price being paid for fuel oil is running ahead of EIA’s high forecast Harold Garabedian Energy & Environmental Analytics 27
  • 28. Paul Frederick , 2009 VT School Wood Chip Users Conference, February, 2008
  • 29. Financial Impact: • Among the 5 City and School Buildings an estimated $300,000 is budgeted in FY12 to purchase Fuel Oil • The cost of Fuel Oil can only be expected to go up in future years; the question is by how much? • Based on price projections from EIA, the annual cost to heat these 5 buildings in 2020 could range from $372,000 to $632,000 • The Capital District Heating Project presents an opportunity to stabilize costs, invest locally, improve environmental quality and convert an operating expense into a community investment
  • 30. FUNDING SOURCES: Federal Dept. of Energy $8.00 Million State of Vermont Capital Bill $7.00 Million Montpelier Bond/CEDF Loan $2.75 Million CEDF Grant $1.00 Million Total Cash $18.75 Million State of Vermont “in kind” $1.20 Million TOTAL project $19.95 Million
  • 31. MUNICIPAL BOND/LOAN Vermont Municipal Bond Bank $2.00 Million Clean Energy Development Fund Loan $0.75 Million (1% interest, repayment deferred until project is cash positive) TOTAL $2.75 Million
  • 32. TWO PROJECTS IN ONE STATE – Heating Plant Improvements and Expansion $13.85 Million Cash $1.20 Million In Kind CITY – Distribution System $4.90 Million Cash Total $18.75 Million Cash $19.95 Million overall
  • 33. KEY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS • City/School costs will consist of bond payment and wholesale cost of biomass generated heat from the State. • Annual expenses will fall within current annual City/School expenses for oil heat. Will not require additional tax dollars • Financial Projections do not include or rely upon potential revenue from private customers. No speculation with regard to future users. • Revenues from future users will be set in reserve for future capacity needs and/or distribution system expansion. Such future costs should not come from tax dollars.
  • 34. OPERATIONS • Master Contract with state for rates, capacity and whole sale purchase of thermal units • City will resell heat to private customers using meters and retail rates established to cover costs and future expansion. • City already maintains subservice distribution systems with metering and billing. • City will engage firm with specific district heat expertise to assist with system operation. • Future option might include creation of separate utility or independent non-profit to manage the system.
  • 35. CONCERNS & CHALLENGES • $18.75 Million in cash available for project, $1.2 million “in kind”. • Current combined estimates run as high as $19.7 to $20.5 with high contingencies and unknowns. • MOU is complete but master contract is not. • Impact of project overruns on scope and quality • One project meets budget and the other doesn’t. • Additional bonding for the city. • Schools are key players but also high cost. • Construction disruption.
  • 36. ADDRESSING CONCERNS • City and State engineers working cooperatively to develop project within available funding. • MOU discussions laid ground work for master contract. Many topics have already been introduced and framed. • Multiple opportunities to review estimates, internal funding allocations and bid results. Will not proceed if it costs too much. • Cost of debt service on bond covered by current fuel costs, should not preclude future bonding if desired. Council has created committee to look at debt levels and policies. Annual GF debt service to drop $88,000 (13%) over next five years. • Potential alternatives for schools if necessary. • All projects create disruption. Will be managed as tightly as possible.
  • 37. BIG DECISION! Voting is on Tuesday, June 14th from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM at City Hall Absentee ballots available now
  • 38. END
  • 39.
  • 40. EIA -- Short-Term Energy Outlook June 7, 2011 Release (Next update July 12, 2011) World benchmark crude oil prices reached their highest level of this year at the end of April, fell by about 10 percent by May 9 and have changed very little since then. EIA still expects oil markets to tighten through 2012 given projected world oil demand growth and slowing growth in supply from countries that are not members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The projected U.S. refiner crude oil average acquisition cost rises from $104 per barrel in 2011 to $108 per barrel in 2012, about the same as last month's Outlook.
  • 41. Historical Price Paid for Fuel Oil; City Hall
  • 42.
  • 43. Crude oil is generally tracked as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Historical Pricing of WTI