Michael Cairns is a publishing and media executive who established Information Media Partners in 2006. In this document, he provides predictions for 2010 in the publishing industry. He predicts that e-books will continue growing but content will move to "the cloud". He also predicts challenges for libraries from mobile access threatening publishers' sales models. Publishers may build subject-specific content communities and collaborate more with magazines. The library and magazine markets may face difficulties in 2010.

1. Michael Cairns
Managing Partner
Information Media Partners
Publishing Predictions 2010
Cloudy with a chance of alarm

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Introduction
Michael Cairns is a publishing and media executive with over 25 years experience in
business strategy, operations and technology implementation. As a business
executive, Mr. Cairns has successfully managed several troubled and under-
performing businesses, creating new business opportunities, developing new funding
sources and enhancing shareholder value for investors. His years spent as an
operating executive have largely been with brand-name publishing companies such
as Macmillan, Inc., Berlitz International, Wolters Kluwer Health, Reed Elsevier and
R.R. Bowker. As a consultant, Mr. Cairns has worked with clients as diverse as
AARP, Hewlett Packard, InterPublic Companies and Reed Elsevier with an emphasis
on business strategy, market development and corporate development.
His skills and experience include:
 Business and corporate strategy development and implementation
 Operations management and business transformation
 Traditional and digital publishing and operations
 Print-to-digital transformation and adoption of new business models
 Software development and software services
Mr. Cairns holds an MBA (Finance) from Georgetown University and a BA from
Boston University. He has served on several boards and advisory groups including
the Association of American Publishers, Book Industry Study Group and the
International ISBN organization. Additionally, he has public and private company
board experience.
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Michael Cairns
Information Media Partners
Strategy Consulting
New York, London, Melbourne
Tel: 908 938 4889
Michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com
Find me:
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram

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Information Media Partners
Michael Cairns established Information Media Partners in 2006 as a boutique strategy
consulting firm focused on the information and education publishing segment. The work
conducted by the firm includes product development, corporate development, sales
management and corporate reorganizations. We work with established businesses, private
equity owners and potential acquirers.
Examples of our work include:
 Reorganized and re-focused a $25 million software publishing company by aligning
business operations with client priorities; implementing internal collaboration tools and
project management standards; re-building executive team to focus on effective and
efficient management
 Defined a new business strategy for a large non-profit association and advocacy group,
expanding their business model into global markets to exploit their core knowledge and
expertise across a broader market
 Led an information technology capabilities review at a large international advertising
holding company. Completed over 200 interviews in 15 international offices and multiple
group focus sessions to define the operational ‘gaps’ between existing agency capabilities
and those necessary and important for client delivery by region
 Completed a sales management effectiveness review for a global software company and
defined six key project initiatives to improve sales effectiveness, market development and
account management
We approach our client engagements in a standardized, logical manner which creates the best
environment to identify key business drivers, administrative and logistical road blocks and/or
product or market definition issues. Our investigative approach leads to better insights into
your businesses and supports the development of workable solutions and recommendations
for success.
Visit the Information Media Partners website for more information.
Sample Client List

4. Predictions
2010
Cloudy with A Chance of
Alarm
Michael Cairns
Information Media Partners
January 2010
© Michael Cairns: Use with Attribution only

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Better or worse?
 During 2009 Book Publishing a winner
 Contrast: Magazines, newspapers, some television
 No ‘resurrection’ during 2009
 Executives guarded about immediate future
 Anticipated short to medium term problems with
education and library funding
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Maturing macro trends
 Educational segment development
 Electronic content and applications
 Testing, assessment
 Increasing not slowing
 “New” not migrated products
 Speak about “databases” and “subscriptions”
 Paid subscription models
 Experimentation: Disney
 Bullying: NewsCorp
 Attempts to separate advertising and subscriber web models
 Experimentation with “communities”
 BusinessWeek exchange
 Nature.com
 Tor.com
 Harlequin
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What hasn’t happened
 No trade consolidation
 Anticipated for several years
 Far less Merger/Acquisition activity
 Mismatch: Valuations and expectations
 Big names on market for extended period
 Collaboration across the supply chain
 Friction with Amazon & pricing
 Physical book retailing heightens problems
 Institutional knowledge leveraged
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Macro predictions 2010
 E-Books
 2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’
 End of 2010: The Cloud
 Google Editions
 Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content will
be defining
 Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of ownership
 E-Content rather than E-Books
 E-Content another format option
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Macro predictions 2010
 Are the Libraries my Friend?
 Mobile and remote access awakening threat to trade
publishers
 Content aggregators build relations with Publishers
 Requirement for more research on patron use of
content
 Implies an industry wide ‘re-think’ of library sales
model
 Challenges definition of ‘purchase’ and ‘loan’
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Macro predictions 2010
 Content silos: How trade build community
 Subject specific content silos
 Publishers license ancillary and related content: Drive
repeat traffic
• Encyclopedia
• Reference
• News content
• Seminars/How to’s/ interactive modules, etc.
 Become sites within sites: Build community with
consumers
 Build other services
 Over time create broader types of content to support silos
 Trade titles/imprints with other publishers
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Micro predictions 2010
 Library market challenged through mid 2011
 Retention, renewal, pricing difficult
 Perhaps some vendor consolidation as a result
 Return of collaboration between magazines and traditional
publishers
 Return of serial and short story: Magazines need ready-made
content
 Trade-off for publishers: Magazines offer targeted marketing
 Year of warfare
 Publishers vs. retailers, wholesalers vs. retailers, retailers vs.
retailers, publishers vs. consumers
 Consolidation of trade houses
 As magazines migrate on-line they will need more content and
journalists will be there: Magazines outsource editorial
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Please review my blog post associated
with this presentation:
http://personanondata.blogspot.com/2010
/01/predictions-2010-cloudy-with-chance-
of.html
Michael Cairns
Managing Partner
Michael.Cairns@InfoMediaPartners.com
908 938 4889
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram