2. Variation of the Earth’s surface for the past 140 years...

3. Global mean surface temperatures have increased

4. The Land and Oceans have warmed

5. Precipitation patterns have changed

6. Sea Levels have risen

11. Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

12. 19 levels in atmosphere 20 levels in ocean 2.5 lat 3.75 long 1.25 1.25 The Hadley Centre third coupled model HadCM3 30km -5km

13. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM OCEAN Precipitation Sea-ice LAND Ice- sheets snow Biomass Clouds Solar radiation Terrestrial radiation Greenhouse gases and aerosol ATMOSPHERE The Met.Office Hadley Centre

14. Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Non-sulphate aerosol Carbon cycle Carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Ocean & sea-ice model Sulphur cycle model Non-sulphate aerosols Carbon cycle model Land carbon cycle model Ocean carbon cycle model Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric chemistry Off-line model development Strengthening colours denote improvements in models 1975 1985 1992 1997 HADLEY CENTRE EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

15. Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

16. Global mean temperature changes

17. Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C

20. CO 2 concentrations, temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced

21. More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

22. World Population 6,056,528,577 The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever- Changing Planet

23. Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity projected present

28. Food and Fiber Production Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water Maintenance of Biodiversity Maintenance of Human Health Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus Agricultural Lands Coastal Zones Forest Lands Freshwater Systems Arid Lands & Grasslands Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide a range of essential ecological goods and services

30. Projected concentrations of CO 2 during the 21 st century are two to four times the pre-industrial level

31. Projected levels of atmospheric CO 2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs (BP 1950) Projected (2100) Current (2001 ) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv)

32. Projected Temperatures During the 21 st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last 1000 Years