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Telecommunications
       Industry Association (TIA)
                Webinar

 Growth on the ICT Enterprise Horizon
  Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast

Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen, With Independent Analyst
            Ashok Kumar, New Media Systems, Inc.
                         April 1, 2010
3-5 Year Forecast and
                              Global in Scope
    •   Report produced by TIA annually since 1986
    •   Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates
    •   Online version through TelecomTV
    •   Segments information by:
        – Geography (U.S., international, global)
        – Sectors & services:
            •   Landline
            •   Wireless
            •   Enterprise
            •   Network equipment
            •   Broadband
            •   VoIP
            •   Data transport
            •   Internet access
2
Global Market Forecast




    • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing
    • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver
3
Enterprise Market Drivers

    • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for
      next four years
    • Boom in videoconferencing and Web conferencing
    • Convergence to IP technologies
    • Need for more bandwidth
    • Upgrades to accommodate the transition to IPv6




4
2013 Market - $565B




    We expect the overall market to rise to $565B in 2013 from
    $499.4B in 2009, a 3.1% compound annual increase.
5
U.S. Equipment Spending




    The total enterprise equipment market will expand at a 3%
    compound annual rate to $112.6B in 2013 from $100.1B in 2009.
6
Voice Systems/Messaging
                       Rebounds




    By 2013 voice systems and voice messaging will be the faster-
    growing category.

7
Tracking the Rebound




    Overall voice-centric market projected to expand at a 5%
    compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to
    $28.2B in 2013 from $23.1B in 2009.
8
Revisiting Promise of UC




    Enhanced productivity will play a role in promoting growth for the
    UC market, which should stabilize in 2011 and expand during
    2012–13 as the economy expands.
9
Videoconferencing Equipment
                   Spending Growth




     The equipment component of the market is forecast to overtake
     the public room component in 2011.
10
Videoconferencing Spending
                Upward Trend Continues




     Overall market projected to grow at a compound annual rate of
     8.3% from $2.1B in 2009 to $2.9B in 2013.

11
Web Conferencing Spending




     Growth for the entire forecast period will average 14.9% on a
     compound annual basis, with spending increasing from $1.55B
     billion in 2009 to a projected $2.7B in 2013.
12
Slow but Steady
                 Audioconferencing Growth




     By 2013, service bureau spending will total an estimated $3.4B,
     up 4.1% on a compound annual basis from 2009.
13
Overall Conferencing Spending




     The market as a whole will grow at an estimated 8.2%
     compound annual rate. By 2013, spending will total an estimated
     $9B.
14
Contact Center Spending




     The overall contact center market will expand at a 3.2%
     compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to an
     estimated $10.1B in 2013 from $8.9B in 2009.
15
Data Communications and
                Internetworking Recovery




     Overall spending will expand from $84.1B in 2009 to an
     estimated $93.4B in 2013, a 2.7%compound annual increase.
16
IP Virtual Private Network
                        Opportunities




     Spending on network-based IP VPN service will rise from $6B in
     2009 to $11.7B in 2013, an 18.3% compound annual increase.
17
More Customer-Premises
                         Services




     By 2013, leased line spending projected to total $13.45B, a 2.4%
     compound annual increase from $12.25B in 2009.

18
Overall Data Communications
              Services Spending Rebounds




     Beginning in 2011, a rebound in leased lines and faster growth in
     the IP VPN will help total data communication service revenue
19
     growth.
Enterprise and the
                              Environment

     • Focus on Green Initiatives:
        –   Growth in Conferencing Services
        –   Reducing Data Center Energy Use
        –   Managing Carbon Footprint
        –   Sustainable Networks
        –   Emergence of Smart Devices


     • Motivation:
        – Public Service/PR
        – Cost Savings



20
More on Other Sectors Soon




21
Research Methodology

     1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources
     2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory
        and competitive factors
     3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry
        revenues
     4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and
        assign relative significance weight
     5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to
        compute range of prospective results
     6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and
        institutional knowledge
22
How To Order

        TIA’s 2010 ICT Market
        Review & Forecast
        Mobile and Wireless
        Communications
        Chapter Is Available
        Today




     http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm


23
TIA: A World-Recognized Authority

     Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information
     and communications technology (ICT) industry
     Works through Policy, Standards, Environment,
     Intelligence and Networking
     3,000 TIA standards developed, including:
         New Committee: Smart Communications Devices
         Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling
         Cell towers and CDMA technology
         CALEA and P25
         Ethernet

24
TIA Board of Directors
               Recognized leadership
               Advances association mission

         ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Cisco
     Systems | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy
      | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Nokia
     Siemens Networks | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions
       Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion |
     Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics |
                              Ulticom, Inc. | Wirefree
       Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia
                                   Technologies


25
TIA’s Policy Agenda




26
Thank You!

      Contact TIA at
     msnyder@tiaonline.org



         tiaonline.org

27

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Growth on ICT Enterprise Horizon

  • 1. Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Webinar Growth on the ICT Enterprise Horizon Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen, With Independent Analyst Ashok Kumar, New Media Systems, Inc. April 1, 2010
  • 2. 3-5 Year Forecast and Global in Scope • Report produced by TIA annually since 1986 • Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates • Online version through TelecomTV • Segments information by: – Geography (U.S., international, global) – Sectors & services: • Landline • Wireless • Enterprise • Network equipment • Broadband • VoIP • Data transport • Internet access 2
  • 3. Global Market Forecast • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver 3
  • 4. Enterprise Market Drivers • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for next four years • Boom in videoconferencing and Web conferencing • Convergence to IP technologies • Need for more bandwidth • Upgrades to accommodate the transition to IPv6 4
  • 5. 2013 Market - $565B We expect the overall market to rise to $565B in 2013 from $499.4B in 2009, a 3.1% compound annual increase. 5
  • 6. U.S. Equipment Spending The total enterprise equipment market will expand at a 3% compound annual rate to $112.6B in 2013 from $100.1B in 2009. 6
  • 7. Voice Systems/Messaging Rebounds By 2013 voice systems and voice messaging will be the faster- growing category. 7
  • 8. Tracking the Rebound Overall voice-centric market projected to expand at a 5% compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to $28.2B in 2013 from $23.1B in 2009. 8
  • 9. Revisiting Promise of UC Enhanced productivity will play a role in promoting growth for the UC market, which should stabilize in 2011 and expand during 2012–13 as the economy expands. 9
  • 10. Videoconferencing Equipment Spending Growth The equipment component of the market is forecast to overtake the public room component in 2011. 10
  • 11. Videoconferencing Spending Upward Trend Continues Overall market projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.3% from $2.1B in 2009 to $2.9B in 2013. 11
  • 12. Web Conferencing Spending Growth for the entire forecast period will average 14.9% on a compound annual basis, with spending increasing from $1.55B billion in 2009 to a projected $2.7B in 2013. 12
  • 13. Slow but Steady Audioconferencing Growth By 2013, service bureau spending will total an estimated $3.4B, up 4.1% on a compound annual basis from 2009. 13
  • 14. Overall Conferencing Spending The market as a whole will grow at an estimated 8.2% compound annual rate. By 2013, spending will total an estimated $9B. 14
  • 15. Contact Center Spending The overall contact center market will expand at a 3.2% compound annual rate during the next four years, rising to an estimated $10.1B in 2013 from $8.9B in 2009. 15
  • 16. Data Communications and Internetworking Recovery Overall spending will expand from $84.1B in 2009 to an estimated $93.4B in 2013, a 2.7%compound annual increase. 16
  • 17. IP Virtual Private Network Opportunities Spending on network-based IP VPN service will rise from $6B in 2009 to $11.7B in 2013, an 18.3% compound annual increase. 17
  • 18. More Customer-Premises Services By 2013, leased line spending projected to total $13.45B, a 2.4% compound annual increase from $12.25B in 2009. 18
  • 19. Overall Data Communications Services Spending Rebounds Beginning in 2011, a rebound in leased lines and faster growth in the IP VPN will help total data communication service revenue 19 growth.
  • 20. Enterprise and the Environment • Focus on Green Initiatives: – Growth in Conferencing Services – Reducing Data Center Energy Use – Managing Carbon Footprint – Sustainable Networks – Emergence of Smart Devices • Motivation: – Public Service/PR – Cost Savings 20
  • 21. More on Other Sectors Soon 21
  • 22. Research Methodology 1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources 2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory and competitive factors 3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry revenues 4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and assign relative significance weight 5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to compute range of prospective results 6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and institutional knowledge 22
  • 23. How To Order TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Mobile and Wireless Communications Chapter Is Available Today http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm 23
  • 24. TIA: A World-Recognized Authority Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry Works through Policy, Standards, Environment, Intelligence and Networking 3,000 TIA standards developed, including: New Committee: Smart Communications Devices Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling Cell towers and CDMA technology CALEA and P25 Ethernet 24
  • 25. TIA Board of Directors Recognized leadership Advances association mission ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Cisco Systems | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Nokia Siemens Networks | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Wirefree Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia Technologies 25
  • 27. Thank You! Contact TIA at msnyder@tiaonline.org tiaonline.org 27