1. MARKETBEAT
OFFICE SNAPSHOT
LAS VEGAS Q4 2011
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW growth and an improved economy. We do not expect to see any
The Las Vegas office market continues to show more major swings in the labor market or the commercial real estate
signs of a market recovery. We are optimistic market like we have seen in the past few years.
that the 2012 economic outlook for the Las
Increased building sales are expected to continue. This growth in
Vegas area will show more positive signs of
sales will also continue to put downward pressure to keep lease rates
growth and stability in the market. Throughout
low. We are cautiously optimistic that we might also see a growth in
2011, vacancy and lease rates have remained stable and direct net
loan servers releasing more product into the market as they witness
absorption ended on the positive side for the first time since 2008.
buyer’s activity growing. Depending on how much and/or how fast
Year to date analysis of net absorption, by submarket and property the distressed properties are released, vacancy rates may rise. We
class, shows strong signs that tenants are still moving out of older will be watching and tracking the release of distressed product type
properties and submarkets and moving into newer, now more for the next few years.
affordable and better located office product. In 2011, we also saw an
uptick in investment sales and a shortage of inventory in owner-user STATS ON THE GO
product type. 4Q10 4Q11 Y-O-Y 12 MONTH
CHANGE FORECAST
VACANCIES REMAIN STABLE IN 2011 Overall Vacancy 23.1% 23.8% 0.7pp
The office vacancy rate saw a slight increase during the fourth quarter Direct Asking Rents $2.10 $1.91 -9.1%
to 23.8%, compared to 23.6% in the third quarter. Of the nine Las (psf/mo)
Vegas submarkets, the Downtown submarket experienced the lowest YTD Net Absorption (sf) -1,224,100 90,328 -1.2%
vacancy rate of 19.7%. Central West is not far behind with a vacancy
rate of 19.3% and the Airport submarket is at 20.8%. The high
vacancy rates in the Northwest (39.1%), Southeast (27.3%) and North OVERALL OCCUPIER ACTIVITY
(23.6%) submarkets are driven by weak tenant demand and marginal
stability. These submarkets are also still experience higher landlord
lease concessions, loan defaults and corporate downsizing.
msf
Direct net absorption, the measure of space leased from one
reporting period to the next, for the fourth quarter returned to a
negative number (93,048). The year-to-date total, however, ended on
3.5
0.4
3.9
0.3
3.1
0.4
3.1
0.2
a positive note at 90,328 sf. This is the first year-to-date positive
result since 2008, when direct net absorption was 637,764 sf. Class C 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
product type showed a (184,507) sf of year end net absorption while
LEASING ACTIVITY USER SALES ACTIVITY
we witnessed a positive 274,835 square feet of net absorption in 2011
for Class B and Class A office product type.
DIRECT RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES
PRICING
With the growth of building sales, lease rates are expected to remain $30.00
24.0%
low. By fourth quarter 2011, the market reported average asking $25.00
22.0%
rents of $1.91 per square foot / full service gross (psf/FSG). The $20.00
20.0%
psf/yr
current asking lease rate is lower than the rate we witnessed at the $15.00 18.0%
end of the year in 2010 at $2.10 psf/FSG. Landlords are starting to $10.00 16.0%
level off with price adjustments but still with high concessions. While $5.00 14.0%
lease rates are stabilizing, they are still lower than the rates we have $0.00 12.0%
seen in the past. 2007 2008 2009 2010 4Q11
DIRECT GROSS RENTAL RATE
OUTLOOK VACANCY RATE
After witnessing a very flat year in market activity, we expect lower
vacancy rates and slightly higher asking lease rates over the next few
years. This market improvement is dependent on continued job