Water in Central Asia

1. Hydropower Flashpoints and
Water Security Challenges
in Central Asia
Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev
US Embassy Tashkent
These slides are personal opinion only.
They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

2. Central Asian ESTH News
Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In
Region
02/11/2008
Tajikistan Warns Of Possible
Water Shortage Crisis
01/21/2009
Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon
In Uzbek Electricity Talks
01/21/2009
Battle Lines Drawn In
Central Asian Water
Dispute
04/19/2006
Regional Politics Get In Way of
Bringing Power to the People
03/03/2007
Uzbekistan Will Halve
Energy To Tajikistan
02/12/2010
Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek
Relations
03/12/2009
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
to Build Hydro Power
Station, Despite
Uzbekistan’s
Objection
04/12/2009
Tajik President Asks
UN to Help Solve
Central Asia’s Water
Problem
04/15/2007
World Bank Group
Statement on WaterEnergy in Central
Asia
03/11/2010
Examination of
Allies: What Side of
the Fence will
Moscow Take in the
Water Dispute?
04/22/2006

4. The Amu-Darya River Basin

5. The Syr-Darya River Basin

6. Total water resources: 116 km3/year
50%
52%
25%
20%
10%
10%
2%
11%
1%
5% / 12%
5%

7. Central Asia Statistics
Countries
Population
(106)
(2009)
GDP
(109 USD)
(2009)
Dependence
on transboundary
waters
(%)
Energy
Security
(%)
Food
Security
(%)
(2010)
ODA
(106 USD)
(2006)
Military
Spending
(109 USD)
(2007)
Kyrgyzstan
5.3
4.6
0
73
57
311
0.17
Tajikistan
7.0
5.0
0
69
31
240
0.53
Upstream
12.3
9.6
0
71
44
551
0.7
Kazakhstan
15.9
115
42
100
100
172
1.6
5.1
20
94
100
50
26
1.1
Uzbekistan
27.8
32
77
100
55
149
1.6
Downstream
48.8
139
71
100
65
347
4.3
Central Asia
61.1
167
18
86
58.6
898
5.0
Turkmenistan

8. New dimensions of regional security
in Central Asia
90% and 95% of
energy in
Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan come
from hydro
Energy
Security
Food
Security
Water
Security
Environmental
refugees
(Environment
and Security
Initiative)
Food
security/Water
scarcity/Access
to Water/Propoor Irrigation
Environ
-mental
Security
Water security is a common feature

9. Understanding Central Asia
HISTORY
LEGACY
RELIGION
NATION-BUILDING
POLITICS
ECONOMICS
SECURITY
GEOPOLITICS

10. Understanding Water in Central Asia
Resource sovereignty
Access to water
Energy security
Crumbling infrastructure
Environmental security
Water for Afghanistan
Planned Projects
Drought & floods
Climate change
Rivalry
Declaratory regionalism

11. Aral Sea Basin
Water Balance
Amu-Darya and SyrDarya Rivers
(116 km3)
Groundwater
(13 km3)
Total
(129 km3=100%)
Total
withdrawals
(120 km3=93%)
Natural
losses
(6.5 km3=5%)
Return water
33 km3=29%
Reused water
(5 km3=15%)
Back to rivers
(18 km3=55%)
Irrigation, 90%
Industry, 5.4%
Discharged into
depressions
(10 km3=30%)
Drinking, 3.2%
Aral Sea
(N/A)
Env. flow, 1.4%

12. Central Asian Water Related Agreements
Date/place
Parties
Title
Governing
Rules
Institutions
02/18/1992
Almaty,
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
Agreement on
Cooperation in
Management of Use
and Protection of Water
Resources of Interstate
Sources
Soviet time water
allocation rules
prevail; joint
decision making;
not to cause
harm
ICWC; BWO
Amu-Darya;
BWO SyrDarya
03/26/1993
Kyzylorda,
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
Agreement on Joint
Activities to Address
the Aral Sea Issues
Sustainable
development;
obligation to
cooperate
ICAS/IFAS
01/16/1996
Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
Charjev,
Turkmenistan
Agreement on
Cooperation in Water
Management Issues
50/50 division of
Amu-Darya flow
at Kerki river
post
TM Ministry of
Water, UZ
Ministry of Ag
and Water
04/17/1998
Bishkek,
Kyrgyzstan
Agreement on Use of
Water and Energy
Resources of SyrDarya Basin
Irrigation-energy
trade-offs
BWO SyrDarya
UDC Energy
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan

13. Central Asian Regional Institutions
HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL
EC IFAS Branch
in Nukus,
Uzbekistan
International Fund to Save
the Aral Sea (IFAS) President
IFAS
Board of Directors
Interstate
Commission
for Water
Coordination
BWO
Syr-Darya
(Tashkent)
BWO
Amu-Darya
(Urgench)
ScientificInformation Center
(Tashkent)
IFAS
Executive Committee
(Almaty)
Interstate
Commission for
Sustainable
Development
Secretariat
EC IFAS Branch
in Kyzylorda,
Kazakhstan
EC IFAS Branch
in Dashauz,
Turkmenistan
Scientific
Information
Center
(Ashgabat)

14. TAJIKISTAN
1
UZBEKISTAN
Shurob
2
NUREK 3
SANGTUDA 1 & 2
TURKMENISTAN
Baipaza
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Hydropower
Duration: 2005-2010
Capacity: 670+220 MW
Cost: 650 and 182 Million
USD
6
7
Perepadnaya
Tsentralnaya
8
5
4
Sangtuda-1
ROGHUN
ROGHUN
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Hydropower,
irrigation
Volume: 13 km3
Capacity: 3600 MW
Cost: 2.2-5 Billion USD
Sangtuda-2
Golovnaya
10 DASHTIJUM
9
DASHTIJUM
AFGHANISTAN
Status: Proposed
Purpose: Hydropower,
irrigation
Volume: 17.6 km3
Capacity: 4000 MW
Cost: 3.2 Billion USD

15. Unilateral developments
Syr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan
Koksaray Reservoir in KZ
Status: Completed
Purpose: Re-regulation of
upstream winter releases
Volume: 3 km3
Duration: 2007-2010
Cost: 200 Million USD
Kambarata I&II Projects in
KG
Status: Under construction
Fergana Reservoirs in UZ
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Re-regulation of
upstream winter releases
Volume: 2.5 km3
Duration: 2004-20-Cost: N/A
Purpose: Hydropower
Volume: 4.7 km3
Duration: 2005-2010
Capacity: 190+360 MW
Cost: 2.2 Billion USD

16. Unilateral developments
Golden Century Lake of Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Karashor Depression:
Golden Century Lake site
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Agricultural
development
Duration: 2002-2022
Volume: 132 km3
Cost: 9 Billion USD
Afghanistan
Iran

17. [possible] Unilateral Development
Amu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan
STATUS-QUO
 According to the 1946 agreement between the
Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is
entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a
tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently
uses about 2 km3/yr.
PROPOSED PROJECTS
 Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the
northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the
Amudarya flow, may require an increase of
withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.
POTENTIAL IMPACT
 Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from
the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement,
could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj
and would have a significant impact on the
downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya.

18. Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN

“…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along
its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”
Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan
Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council
Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009

“…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh
River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is
responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream
from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at
the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

“…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in
downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in
downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are
being constructed…”
Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the
IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009

President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
“…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining
adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at
the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

19. Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN

“…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a
launching of the first hydro-generator of
Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the
country. Construction and launch of this HPP
demonstrates the power of our country, and we
do not intend to abandon the constructions of
Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able
to live well in both winter and summer, and are
increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of
course, we will cooperate on this plan with
Uzbekistan…”
Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at
the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of
the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010

Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva
presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit
of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2,
08/30/2010
“…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its
investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development
of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the
CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines KyrgyzstanTajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…”
Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz
Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG
Summit, 09/27/2010, New York

20. Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN

“…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate
existing agreements and are against to international law. Both
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream
countries…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008

“…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international
examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary
rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of
UN and include independent authoritative experts…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

“…In accordance with international customary law, upstream
countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to
prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…”
Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of
the
International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008

President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
“… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the
interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

“…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller
hydropower plants…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan,
04/24/2009

21. Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN

“…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries
downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers,
need guarantees [offered by international feasibility
studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of
people…Until the results of [international] expert
testing are available, no dam should be built…”
Remarks of President Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent,
Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010

“…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very
large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for
the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a
project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central
Asia?…”
Remarks of President Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Medvedev, UstKamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010

President of Kazakhstan
Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,
United Nations
“…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of
transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional
projects of water management…”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan
www.mfa.kz

22. Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN

“…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on
the universally accepted norms and principles of
international law taking into account the interests of all
States in the region and with participation of
international organizations…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

“…the need for mandatory and transparent
independent international technical, economic and
environmental impact assessment of hydropower
projects on rivers at their early design stages…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

“… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors
with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve
the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the
problem of water…”
President of Turkmenistan
Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

“…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to
make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a
commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border
rivers...”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

23. Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River
(Embassy Dushanbe)






Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts.
Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake;
Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system:
upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode,
the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode;
Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of
hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan;
Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors
– anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot
hold back water;
Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked
construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is
killing the Aral Sea;
Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs
because it is excluded from regional exchanges.
Nurek Dam
Nurek reservoir
Roghun site 2008
Roghun site 2010

24. Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on
Roghun (November 2008)











Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules;
Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the
runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct);
Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream
(22% less water on average);
The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam
can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by
earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU;
Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands;
Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated
fields downstream;
$4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields,
processing and fishing industry;
$146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands,
pastures, extinction of animal and bird species);
Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million
people in Turkmenistan;
Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million
people in downstream;
Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with
daily regulation of storages.

25. World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies
- The Five-Point Program Consultant
(Assessment)
Studies
The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT,
including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and draft
reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed
consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.
Regional Studies
The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed
trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic
energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir
operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis.
Panels of Experts
The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will
participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance.
Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside
former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will
focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the
Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note:
These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower)
Riparian Involvement
The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment
Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific
program will be determined with input from riparians.
Commitments
GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align
construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam.
The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies
and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.

26. Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events
1993: Commonwealth
of Independent
States
2001: Eurasian
Economic
Community
1998: UN Special
Program for Economies
of Central Asia
1994: Central Asian
Economic
Cooperation
Collapse of USSR
1995: Nukus
Declaration
of Heads of State
1993: Kyzylorda
Agreement:
ICAS / IFAS
1991
1992
1993
1992: Almaty
Agreement:
ICWC, BWOs
1994
1995
1996
2006: MoU
between
AF and TJ
2009: Heads of
State Joint
Statement
2000: KZ accedes
to 1992 UNECE
Water Convention
1998: Syrdarya
Framework
Agreement
1997
1998
1996: Amudarya
Agreement between
UZ and TU
1994: Aral Sea
Basin Program
Phase I
1992: Economic
Cooperation
Organization
2001: TW Framework
Agreement between
KZ and CN
1999
1991
2000
1992
2001
2002
2003
2000: Chu-Talas
Agreement between
KG and KZ
1999: Agreements
on (1) Hydrometeorology
and (2) Parallel Operation
of Energy Systems
1997: Central Asian
Economic Cooperation
Organization
2010: Aral Sea
Basin Program
Phase III
2002: Dushanbe
Declaration
of Heads of State
2004
2005
2006
2007-11
2006: Framework
Agreement on
EP and SD in CA
2002: Aral Sea
Basin Program
Phase II
2001: Shanghai
Cooperation
Organization
2007: UZ accedes
to 1992 UNECE
and 1997 UN
Water Conventions

27. Our Bottom Line: During the next
10 years, many countries important
to the United States will experience
water problems—shortages, poor
water quality, or floods—that will
risk instability and state failure,
increase regional tensions, and
distract them from working with the
United States on important US
policy objectives. Between now and
2040, fresh water availability will not
keep up with demand absent more
effective management of water
resources. Water problems will
hinder the ability of key countries to
produce food and generate energy,
posing a risk to global food markets
and hobbling economic growth. As
a result of demographic and
economic development pressures,
North Africa, the Middle East, and
South Asia will face major
challenges coping with water
problems.

28. The Aral Sea
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011