The needs of fixed access operators are expanding beyond just providing more bandwidth. There are various other drivers for optical access, with different timeframes of need. Some of these can be met with existing fiber technologies, and some will require new technologies. The industry is considering several next generation PON architectures, each addressing the needs and timeframes to varying degrees. Authors: Ed Harstead & Michael Peeters

1. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT ?
Michael Peeters, Wireline CTO
FTTH Council München, February 2012
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2. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT
BECAUSE WE CANNOT SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON
The 3 things we expect will drive technology
1. Sharing the cost
2. Saturating bandwidth demand
3. Flexibility, but not at any cost
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3. FLEXIBILITY
IN COST ALLOCATION
PTP PON
• Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per • Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per
dedicated Mb/s subscriber
• Valid for smaller deployments with short loops • Favored for higher peak bandwidths
• Valid for all deployments
• Strongly preferred for large COs, longer loops
Share&WW&Broadband&Subscriber&Additions&
(Dell'Oro)
100%
80%
PON
60% Ethernet/Other
40% VDSL
ADSL/SHDSL
20%
Cable>modem
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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4. BANDWIDTH
IS NO LONGER THE CAPTAIN
2010 2015 2020
GPON has enough bandwidth for FTTH beyond 2020
GPON
• Lower power dissipation
• Symmetrical bandwidth
• Resiliency at lower cost
10G PON
• ONU evolution
• Reduced opex
TWDM PON-
Drivers for 10G PON ready ONU
• FTTB/DSLAM
• FTTBusiness NGPON2 (40G PON)
• More bandwidth at (Plan)
same cost as GPON Drivers for NGPON2
(not yet foreseeable) • More bandwidth for FTTB/
DSLAM/Business
• CO consolidation
• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for 10G PON are low volume Market needs are:
• Bandwidth-independent
• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for NGPON2 are speculative • More customer-specific
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5. NGPON2 TRADE-OFFS
40G TDM PON λ-stacked XG-PON One λ per subscriber
“XLG-PON” “TWDM PON” WDM PON
40x1G down
40G down ONU 4x10G down ONU ONU
ONU ONU ONU
OLT OLT OLT
ONU ONU ONU
10G up ONU 4x2.5G up ONU ONU
No -agility req’d -agile, 4 s 40x1G up -agile, 40 s
ODN
Non-compatible, less flexible.
Backwards-compatible, power-splitting Loss ~insensitive to split ratio.
Bandwidth More on-demand bandwidth
Symmetrical bandwidth
Higher risk in 2015 Lower risk in 2015 Higher risk in 2015
Implementation
Higher speed components
• In the short run, higher speed components cost more, but reduce over time
More components and higher complexity
• Over time, cost will be determined by the no. of components and complexity
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6. NGPON2 COST EVOLUTION
QUALITATIVE PICTURE
If we needed NGPON2 today:
• XLG-PON would be the most expensive: cost of 40G components and higher optical power
• TWDM PON would the lowest cost: leverages existing XG-PON technology
Cost cross-over between XLG-
PON and TWDM-PON
Cost%per%subscriber
WDM$PON
TWDM)PON
XLG)PON
At some point in the future:
Time • XLG-PON will be the least
expensive: fewest components,
lowest complexity
Point for BW per
Today lambda shift ?
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7. TRANSITION SCENARIO
TWO GENERATIONS IN ONE
XG-PON
10G down
ONU
• Day 1: XG-PON with -agile ONUs: OLT
ONU
2.5G up
-agile, 4 s
• Future evolution to 40G PON 40G -TWDM-PON
- Replace XG-PON OLT line card TWDM- 4x10G down ONU
PON line card with 4- capability
ONU
- Existing ONUs tune to correct OLT
ONU
ONU
4x2.5G up
-agile, 4 s
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8. THE FORK IN THE ROAD
AND THE PATH FORWARD
40G/10G XLG$PON( TWDM(PON( WDM(PON(
Capacity(
Drivers: Drivers: Drivers:
• Ultimately the lowest cost, • Lowest risk for 2015 • Large scale FTTBusiness:
but highest risk for 2015 volume deployment ≥1 Gb/s dedicated
volume deployment • Transition from existing symmetrical bandwidth
• Highest OLT port density XG-PON deployments (high peak bandwidths not
• Legacy ODN compatibility • Legacy ODN compatibility important)
• SuperPONs (ultra-long
reach/ultra-high split)
10G/2.5G XG$PON(
2.5G/1.25G GPON(
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