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2nd Green Revolution
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Nalin Kulatilaka
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Energy Intermediary talk by Nalin Kulatilaka, BUILDE meeting, May 10, 2007
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2nd Green Revolution
1.
A 2nd Green
Revolution New Business Models to Accelerate Adoption of Clean Technologies Nalin Kulatilaka
2.
Energy Conversion
Primary Human Sources Uses Energy Transport Energy Storage Solar solar hot water, he Wind ating Win Ph dow Heat ot s/ ov Hou ol ta Tidal sin ics g des i gn Hydro Electricity Light Bio Fuel Cells Motion Fossil Fuel Hydrogen Water Geo thermal Processing Markets Fission Intermediaries Organizations Fusion © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
3.
Adopting Complementary Systems
Takes Time © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
4.
The Ignored Opportunity
The Familiar Cut Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics Graphic Published first in Metropolis Magazine, October 2003 Issue. © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
5.
The Ignored Opportunity
An Unfamiliar Cut © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
6.
Efficiency Investment Risk
and Return 30% 25% Energy Efficiency Small Company Stocks 20% 15% Common Stock 10% Long-Term Corp. Bonds 5% U.S. T-Bills 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
7.
The Economics of
Conservation in the Built Environment • Profit Opportunity: Avoided cost of energy 13¢ /kwh RPS premium 2¢/kwh Carbon credit 2.5¢/kwh Less energy efficiency cost of 2¢/kwh Equals 15 - 16¢/kwh Who can capture the value? Utilities can’t do it. In 48 states regulations prevent • utilities from profiting from energy efficiency investments Consumers don’t act by themselves. High upfront • costs, information fragmentation, and small dollar impact on the energy bill have prevented consumers from acting on their own © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
8.
Brown Building --
Energy Bill Appliances ? Features Behavior Weather Oil Price © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
9.
Green Building --
Energy Bill © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
10.
First Step: Energy
Service Companies • Analogous to IT services • Can bridge expertise/knowledge gaps, overcome customer inertia and change the marketplace. ESCOs exist, but we need them to flourish. © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
11.
Needs an Ecosystem
Design, install, and operate Evaluate risks Monitor and E-Inter and provide validate Opportunity financing energy use Interface with utilities and contract with customers © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
12.
Business Model
Customer 1 Customer 2 …………… ………….. Customer N Monitoring & Verification Credit Risk Rate Risk E-Inter Performance Risk Lender Utility Securitize annuities © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
13.
Up-Side Potential:
Peak Shifting Programs PJM is Accepting Example of Generator providing Super Fast Reserves: Frequency control and ± 60MW of Secondary Reserves on AGC Reserve Services from Load Since July 2006. Experience so far indicates loads are more reliable. ISO-NE is conducting pilot to Investigate load participation in reserve services. Secondary Reserves 320MW±60MW Frequency Control Source: Courtesy of EnThes Inc., March 2007 © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
14.
Business Model
Customer 1 Customer 2 ………….. ……………. Customer N Monitoring & Verification Credit Risk Rate Risk E-Inter Performance Risk Lender • Load control • FCM Utility • RECs • etc. System Operator © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
15.
The Cyber Infrastructure
• Real-time metering at individual “edge user” • Communications infrastructure to convey price signals – Users and smart appliances • Control systems to adjust load – Central pool • If distributed generation (wind, solar), then 2-way metering. © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
16.
Conclusions
• Built environment ready for immediate adoption of demand reduction and distributed generation • Opportunities for service and financing model innovations • Vital need for measurement, monitoring, and verification services. • Up-side opportunities through pooling and controlling load -- need a cyber infrastructure © Martha Amram and Nalin Kulatilaka
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