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Similar a BC Protected Area Research Forum Presentation
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BC Protected Area Research Forum Presentation
- 1. Using Bioclimatic Envelopes to Identify Temporal Corridors in Support of Conservation Planning in a Changing Climate Nancy-Anne Rose 1 Philip J. Burton 1,2 1 University of Northern British Columbia 2 Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada 3333 University Way, Prince George, British Columbia, Canada V2N 4Z9
- 3. www.y2y.net/science/ An analogy: corridors in time, like corridors in space, are needed to provide connectivity Spatial connectivity: – should allow migration south north and low high elevation
- 4. Central Interior Study Area http://science.natureconservancy.ca/centralinterior/central.php
- 5. Conservation Area Design and Gap Analysis
- 6. Richness of Plant & Animal Species Stewardship Areas (i.e. Protected Areas) GAPS A Simple Gap Analysis for BC (courtesy of Dr. Geoff Scudder, UBC)
- 7. Climate Change: An Inconvenient Truth
- 8. Expected Climate Change: (based on CGCM2 model output) (Hamann & Wang 2006)
- 14. Methods – Step 3 11000 011 1 0 010 11 00101 000 1 1 000 11 11111 010 1 1 101 11 00110 111 1 0 001 11 Current 2020 2050 2080
- 16. The Interior Douglas-Fir Biogeoclimatic Zone “ collapsing the 4 th dimension”
- 17. Temporal Corridors for the BC Biogeoclimatic Zones Expect to see sufficient climate stability over the next 75 years to sustain currently recognized climax forest types in some areas but not others.
- 18. Temporal Corridor locations compared to current protected areas
- 19. Salix boothii (Booth’s willow) Nephroma occultum (Cryptic Paw)
- 20. North Pacific Interior Lodgepole Pine – Douglas-fir Woodland and Forest
- 21. ICHmc2 (Interior Cedar Hemlock moist cool)
Notas del editor
- Options to also explore trends in a given area, as expected from downscaled GCM projections (not a major component)
- The future forest can also expect to deal with a decidedly different climatic setting. The models vary, but their resolution and consistency is increasing – while the biogeoclimatic zones can’t be expected to move in lockstep over the region, their climatic envelopes or potentials will certainly move. Note how the climate of the Interior Plateau, now this purple Sub-Boreal Spruce, can be expected to take on the yellow and green intermix of dry-belt and wet-belt Interior Douglas-Fir and Interior Cedar-Hemlock forests now occupying the Cariboo and Kootenays.