นำเสนอประเด็นสำคัญของการคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี ต่อที่ประชุมผู้บริหาร - นเรศ

1. technology foresight
20 2554
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
1
www.apecforesight.org

2. patterns
+ new
context
signals
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
2
www.apecforesight.org

3. Scenario A
Expected
Today
Possible
and
Plausible
futures
early weak Preferred
signals of
change Scenario B
Time
Source: Bezold and Hancock 1993,
modified by APEC CTF
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
3
www.apecforesight.org

4. Source: Energy Modelling Forum
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
4
www.apecforesight.org

5. • Royal Dutch/Shell used scenario planning system in
early 1970s.
• Shell was prepared to deal with the 1973 oil shock
and greatly improved its competitive position in the
industry.
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

6. Rand Corporation, Korea STEPI, NISTEP, Science &
UK Foresight
Global Technology Mega Trends Technology
Programme
Revolution 2020 (Govt Office for Science) Analysis Foresight
Battelle, R&D
Forecast 2011
Center for Strategic
Studies and Management
Science, Technology and
Innovation
STI Office,
Forfas APEC CTF ITRI,
Ireland 2025 Taiwan 2015
Technology Foresight
European
Commission, Singapore, Risk
Research & Innovation - SSH
APEC Center for Technology Foresight Assessment and
www.apecforesight.org Horizon Scanning

7. Climate change and its impact
Migration, rural
Trade of goods life, and natural
and services resources
Housing, const
on, urban
Society life, transporta
and health APEC Center for Technology
Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

8. Some lessons learned from LCS scenarios
• Coastal-to-inland migration sparks major
conflicts over land and resources.
• Emergence of computerized farming and other
technological advances.
• Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it
replaces USD as the global currency.
• Community networking is the key. Community-
driven initiatives drive the changes the world
requires in pursuit of the low-carbon
development path.
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
8
www.apecforesight.org

9. Green
Inclusive
Innovation
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

10. Future Mobile Phones
Source: http://mobile-explorer.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

11. APEC Center for TechnologySource: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)
Foresight
11
www.apecforesight.org

12. Catching water
pollutants. Siemens’
process (left) keeps
membrane filters
from becoming
clogged.
Boston’s Deer Island water
treatment plant uses
processes from Siemens Water
Technologies APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org
Source: http://www.siemens.com/innovation/

13. foresight
•
–
–
• sector
–
–
•
–
–
•
–
–
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

14. Designing A Technology Roadmap
Revisiting National Nanotechnology Technology
Strategic Plan Roadmapping
2007-2013 and Master Plan (2007-2011) - NANOTEC Internal
Resource Management
- Impact Estimation
Analyzing Global Nano - Timeline Mapping
Science & - Charting TRM
Nanotechnology Trend - Prioritization
- Identify Keywords & Technology - Change Management
Definition and Taxonomy Planning
- Bibliometric Analysis
- Patent Analysis
- Literature Review
Jan 09 August 09
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

15. Drug delivery system
Food processing & storage
Textile
R&D Agenda
Vector & pest detection/control
Disease diagnosis & screening
Energy production, conversion & storage
Water treatment & remediation
Core Agricultural productivity enhancement
Knowledge
Tools
Coating Target
Core Target
Encapsulation
Technology
Functional Nanostructure Target
Safety & Risk Management
Computer Modeling / Simulation
Intelligence Information Unit
Budget
Resources Manpower
Equipment Based on the requirement of Lab/ Project/ Program
Integrated NANOTEC TRM
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

16. Krabi Initiative 2010:
Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN
ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders
Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI)
Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN
ASEAN Innovation for Digital Economy, New Media Green Food Security
Thematic Global Market & Social Network Technology
Tracks Energy
Security
Water
Management
Biodiversity for
Health & Wealth
Science and
Innovation for Life
STI Bottom-of-the - Youth-focused STI for Green Public-Private
Paradigm Enculturation Pyramid (BOP) Innovation Society Partnership
Platform
Shifts Focus
Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN
Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI
Courses of
Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the
Action Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015
Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org
Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010

17. Rising above the gathering storm
1
Risk and disaster management
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org

18. Rising above the gathering storm
• Influencing the debate and
2
structuring of federal policy and
budgets, prompting activity at
local, state, and regional levels.
• Creating competitiveness
– Human capital Twenty-first
– Knowledge capital Century Skills
– Innovation environment
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org