Investing in Shares for Today:Buy Stock of Hindustan Zinc LTD and Book Profit on Swaraj Engines Ltd

IEA-Equity
Strategy

India Equity Analytics

6th March, 2014

Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Hindustan Zinc LTD : Good gains ahead

"BUY"

Edition : 219
6th Mar 2014

Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet
and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being an integrated & dominant
player in the domestic industry with low cost of production, the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in
one year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our
positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-. ....................................................... ( Page : 2-4)

Voltas Ltd : Downgrade to "Neutral"…….

"NEUTRAL"

6th Mar 2014

The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2
times of its FY15E book value. However, If the company if things will going positively we could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but
we don't believe buyers would be willing to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral given
the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target to Rs. 120. ................................................................ (
Page : 5-6)

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd :

"BOOK PROFIT"

6th Mar 2014

In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter
have given a premium of 40 per cent over its recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels. Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a
P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own past historical data .
...................................................................... ( Page : 7-8)

EROSMEDIA :"Moving to Blockbuster"

"BUY"

5th Mar 2014

Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than 8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages.
Likewise, company is going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April, 2014. Its well positioned to monetize rich
content of library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue. .......................................... ( Page :9-11)

Escorts Ltd: "Volume Growth Remains The Key;Retain Buy"

"BUY"

5th Mar 2014

Going forward, we remain positive on the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve further in
FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-tomedium. Thus, We revise our estimates upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our rating on
the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current level with Revised price target of Rs. 175
........................................................................ ( Page : 12-13)

Infosys : "Meritocracy to growth"

"BUY"

4th Mar 2014

In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in
Infosys could be asked to leave or may hand over layoff notices. Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion, also operating
metrics will turn into greenery from hay. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a
target price of target price of Rs 3910 . ............................................................... ( Page : 14-16)

Powergrid :

"BUY"

3th Mar 2014

The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business
model with RoE (16%), strong growth visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target price of
Rs.118.With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our
estimates we maintain a positive fundamental outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of further
equity dilution is reduced . ............................................................ (Page : 17)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Hindustan Zinc LTD.

"BUY"
6th March' 14

Good gains ahead
Result Update

BUY

CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous

123
148
148
20%
0%

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty

500188
HINDZINC
142/94
51929
5192
6329

Stock Performance-%
1M
4.3
0.0

Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1yr
-1.7
9.2

YTD
-3.4
11.3

Share Holding Pattern-%
3QFY14
64.9
1.8
31.4
1.8

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

2QFY14 1QFY14
64.9
64.9
1.8
1.5
31.4
31.5
1.8
2.1

450

400
350
300
250
200

150
100
50

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-07

0

Jan-08

We believe Zinc price will be the core fundamental behind the Hindustan zinc’s bull story
in the coming years. We see a improving volume of production through FY15.More So
Govt. The attorney-general’s clearance for the Centre’s proposal to divest its residual
stake in Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) lifted the Street’s mood. Again the board delayed this
process and guided investors that disinvestment of government's remaining stake in
Hindustan Zinc will happen next fiscal year. Stake sale in HZL again seems to be back
burner now. We also see gradual and sustainable recovery in global macro Scenario
which supports a positive cycle in industrial metals. So, we believe there exists a strong
case for significant earnings estimate for Hind Zinc in coming months.
Robust Q3FY14 Performance :
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY14 performance was inline to our estimates on the back of
healthy zinc sales volumes and higher metal premiums. Total operating income for
Q3FY14 stood at Rs. 3450.1 crore higher by 8.6% YoY but lower by 3.1% QoQ. Total zinc
sales in Q3FY14 came in at 196,000 tonne, up 17% YoY and 2% QoQ . The company
realised premium on metal sales amounting to $241/tonne for zinc (Zn) & $305/tonne for
lead (Pb) . Lead sales volume for the quarter stood at 23500 tonnes (lower by 24% QoQ
and 22% YoY), while silver sales volumes stood at 78500 kg (lower by 31% YoY and 14%
QoQ) . EBITDA came in at Rs.1823.8 crore and inline to our estimate of Rs. 1829.6 crore.
Subsequently, net profit stood at Rs. 1722.7 crore .
Valuation & Recommendation
Zinc fundamentals are becoming attractive with suppotive lead prices brings a positive
outlook for Hindustan Zinc.With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over
production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Being
an integrated & dominant player in the domestic industry with low cost of production,
the company is poised to benefit in the long run. Now the stock is trading at 1.6x in one
year forward P/B we estimated it at 1.8x for 2015.At current level we see a significant
growth in the stock. We valued & reaffirm our positive stance on HZL and assign a BUY
rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 148/-.

1 yr Forward P/B

Jan-07

Zinc market was bearish during last consecutive years having surplus in inventory, but
now sentiment is slowly turning positive showing some uptrends in Zinc LME prices.
Visible inventories on the London Metals Exchange, as well as on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, are down about 30% over the last year. And zinc demand is increasing steadily.

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Financials :
Net Revenue
EBITDA
Depriciation
Tax
PAT

Q3FY14
3450
1824
210
305
1723

Y-o-Y %
8.6
22.1
18.6
50.2
6.8

Q-o-Q %
-9.8
-3.1
12.9
20.1
5.1

Q3FY13
3178
1494
177
203
1613

Q2FY14
3826
1883
186
254
1640
(In Crs)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

2

Hindustan Zinc LTD.
Silver(rs/ounce)

Nov-13

Dec-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

B. A reason to wait and watch , is since the government is looking at auction, how much
will Vedanta be able to garner and what price it is willing to pay is not known.

Feb-13

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mar-13

Key Concerns
A. Volatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT adversly.

LME Price/Ton

Jan-13

Lower Production Guideline
HZL has marginally downward revised its mined metal production guidance for FY14 from
950,000 tonnes earlier to 900,000 tonnes. This reflects slower-than-expected ramp up of
underground mining projects and some changes in mining sequence wherein preference
has been given to primary mine development during this period.


H. Zinc premium reaches six year high as inventories shrink
I. Fees that zinc smelter charge to refine the metat that probably to increase 5%.


LME Price/Ton
Lead

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0


LME Price/Ton
Zinc

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

125000
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
95000
90000

Jan-13

C. HZL’s revenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zinc
and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (London
Bullion Metal Association) prices.
D. Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries for zinc and industrial batteries,
car batteries industries for lead would affect the company estimates.
E. Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems ,
non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for energy
requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes and
industrial actions or disputes.
Key Triggers for Growth
A. Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.
B. Captive plants enjoy the lower Tax rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free
geographycal areas.
C. Smelting Plants are improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants
will maintain their stance for the coming quarters also.
D. The Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven
downward from the surface) and commercial production already ramp up in Q3 and will
in Q4 of FY14 . The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in
the current fiscal year.
E. A cash-rich balance sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL
an attractive bet at the current price levels.
F. Disinvestment of government's remaining stake in Hindustan Zinc and Bharat
Aluminium (Balco) will happen next fiscal year .
G. In the past Vedanta Group has said it wanted majority control when Vedanta had earlier
offered Rs 149 a share . If this is any benchmark,then investors will stand to gain.


3

Hindustan Zinc LTD.
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Power, fuel & water
Repairs
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Net tax expense / (benefit)
PAT
ROE%
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets

FY11
9912
979
10891
1023
492
4417
5496
475
19
1059
4900
22.0
FY10
423
17701
18124
478
340
20238
109
6071
1113
361
452
152
928
96
20238

FY12
11405
1543
12948
1228
568
5336
6069
611
14
1419
5526
21.0
FY11
845
21688
22533
475
567
25053
109
7145
875
594
762
209
5633
158
25053

FY13
12700
2032
14732
1070
696
6218
6482
647
29
921
6899
21.0
FY12
845
26036
26881
410
504
29485
47
8466
445
876
798
332
5255
233
29485

FY14E
13577
1787
15364
1291
707
6484
7093
718
37
1097
6967
19.0
FY13
845
31431
32276
484
825
35465
10
8474
1082
1898
1111
403
6942
373
35465

RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
Inventories to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Cash from Operation
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

3.2
95.6
1.9
6.0
0.6
FY10
4001
77
4077
-3881
-187
8

2.2
11.6
2.1
4.8
0.8
FY11
4483
-212
4272
-3658
-363
250

2.1
13.1
2.9
3.6
0.7
FY12
4553
-61
4492
-3499
-1242
-248

1.7
16.3
3.2
3.8
0.9
FY13
4935
-183
4752
-3234
-1257
262


Net
Revenue
from
Operatio
n

4000
3500
3000
2500

30.0

Revenue
Growth

4500

15.0

25.0
20.0

2000

10.0

1500

5.0

1000
0.0

500
0

-5.0

ZinC Productions:
250000

Zinc Production
(tons)

200000
150000
100000

50000
0

EBIDTA & Margin :
2500

EBIDTA %

2000

49

49

50

47
43

1500

60

EBIDTA

43

41

40

42

30
1000
20
500

10

0

0

4

Voltas Ltd.

"Neutral"
6th Mar' 14

Downgrade to "Neutral"…….
Company update

Neutral

CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous

139
125
95
-10%
32%

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores) Vol. (Nos.)
Average Daily
Nifty

500575
VOLTAS
65/143
4,609
624,126
6,329

Stock Performance-%
1M
28.5
23.1

Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1yr
75.2
64.0

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

1 yr Forward P/B

Management comment on above JV :
Water has been identified as a key focus area for the Tata group. With its unrivalled know-how
and technological leadership in the water treatment space, the partnership, will help Voltas
Water Solutions cater to the growing water treatment requirements of the Indian subcontinent.
They further believe that partnership will simultaneously leverage the brand and distribution
strength of Voltas, along with the technology prowess of the water and process solutions division
of the Dow Group.

YTD
84.2
72.9

Our View on said JV :
In today scenario major Water and Waste Water Treatment market is mostly and largely catered
by unorganized players. And the market which is targeted by this new joint venture will provide a
branded and differentiated product line in the sector, with a focus on quality and service
delivery.

2QFY13 1QFY14
30.2
30.2
14.5
18.1
29.8
25.6
25.6
26.1

About Dow Group :
Dow Chemical Pacific (Singapore) Pte Ltd was established in 1992. Catering to customers in Asia
Pacific, particularly South East Asia, Dow Group combines the power of science and technology to
passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The company is driving innovations
that extract value from the Intersection of chemical, physical and biological sciences to help
address many of the world's most challenging problems such as the need for clean water, clean
energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The company's
integrated, market-driven, industry-leading portfolio of specialty chemical, advanced materials,
agrosciences and plastics businesses delivers a broad range of technology-based products and
solutions to customers in high growth sectors such as packaging, electronics, water, coatings and
agriculture.
Valuation :
The company has been evaluating strategic alternatives since 2012, we believe the company is
not inclined to sell at valuations multiple of 2 times of its FY15E book value. We estimate that at
the lower end of management's guidance this translates into a 12.1%/12.7% RoE forFY14/15E.
We believe management is attempting to be conservative regarding the guidance for FY14 &
FY15, but even with a 60/90 bps improvement in the operating margin the RoE would be
approximately 12.1%/12.7% for FY14/15E , which we believes would translate into a P/B multiple
of approximately 2.0x – to 2.2x. This translates to a 12 month price target of approximately Rs.
120 based on our FY14E BVPS of Rs. 59. However, If the company if things will going positively we
could rationalize valuations near Rs. 145 per share, but we don't believe buyers would be willing
to pay a premium to BVPS more than 2 times at this time. We are downgrading Voltas to Neutral
given the recent rise in its share price following 3QFY14 earnings and revised our price target
to Rs. 120.”

3QFY14
30.3
15.2
29.8
24.8

What New...???
Voltas Ltd has proposed to form a new joint venture (JV) company named –“ Voltas Water
Solutions” which will have equal capital contribution from “Voltas” and “Dow Chemical Pacific”
(Singapore) Pte (Dow). This JV company will market and distribute standard packaged Water
Treatment Systems and Waste Water Treatment Systems of capacity up to 20 m 3/hour, to
residential and commercial complexes and light industrial markets in the Indian subcontinent.
The entity's operations would include designing, procuring, testing, marketing, selling and
servicing of such standard water treatment systems and waste water treatment systems.


5

Voltas Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014E

2015E

Performance
Revenue

4326

4757

5191

5186

5531

5320

5852

Other Income

94

78

58

98

90

84

100

Total Income

4420

4836

5250

5284

5621

5404

5952

EBITDA

283

460

463

336

245

261

296

EBIT

262

438

442

303

217

237

268

DEPRICIATION

21

21

21

34

28

24

28

INTREST COST

11

10

17

31

40

35

42

PBT

372

532

524

219

280

286

326

TAX
Extra Oridiniary Items
Reported PAT
Dividend (INR)
DPS
EPS

117
26
255
73
2.2
7.7

147
25
385
73
2.2
11.6

172
40
352
73
2.2
10.6

57
-150
162
73
2.2
4.9

73
12
207
73
2.2
6.3

74
0
211
54
61.5
6.4

85
0
241
54
61.5
7.3

6.5%
5.8%
16.2%
4.7%
32.2%
27.3%

9.7%
8.0%
6.5%
1.2%
35.4%
35.2%

8.9%
6.7%
6.2%
1.3%
25.8%
24.6%

6.5%
3.1%
4.4%
2.0%
11.0%
11.4%

4.4%
3.7%
8.3%
2.9%
12.7%
13.1%

4.9%
3.9%
4.4%
42.4%
11.9%
12.3%

5.1%
4.0%
5.0%
42.4%
12.3%
13.0%

790
181
971
33
48

1085
35
1120
33
178

1362
137
1498
33
172

1478
223
1701
33
112

Yeild %
EBITDA %
NPM %
Earning Yeild %
Dividend Yeild %
ROE %
ROCE%
Position
Net Worth
Total Debt
Ammount in crores
Capital Employed
No of Share (Adj)
INR in crores
CMP

1626
1775
1955
261
225
225
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
1887
2000
2180
33
33
33
75
145
145

Ammount in crores


Valuation
Book Value
P/B
Int/Coverage
P/E
Ammount in crore

23.9
2.0
23.8
6.2

32.8
5.4
44.5
15.3

41.2
4.2
26.7
16.1

44.7
2.5
9.6
22.9

49.1
1.5
5.5
12.1

53.7
2.7
6.8
22.7

59.1
2.5
6.4
19.9



6

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

V-

"Book Profit"
6th Mar' 14

" Book Profits While The Going Is Good…. "
Company update

Book Profit

CMP
Target Price
Upside

648
648
600
0%
7%

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Average Daily Volume
Nifty

500407
SWARAJENG
382/672
801
1,015
6,329

Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1M
5.3
(0.2)

1yr
47.8
36.6

YTD
63.4
52.0

In our earlier report dated 25-04-13, we had recommended readers to buy the scrip with a view
to earn healthy gains. As expected, the counter have given a premium of 40 per cent over its
recommended price. We expect the current price growth rally factored all the fundamental
changes, and we advise our readers to book profits at the current levels.
We are quite positive on the Swaraj Engines, owing to its strong tractor volume growth, capacity
expansion to 1,05,000 engines pa from 75,000 of current level, softening of commodity prices
and company presence in all HP segments. We are upbeat on the stock on the account of core
business momentum remains robust with healthy EPS growth, cash flow generation and high
RoE.
Moreover, we feel that caution is necessary over the recent robust financial as well as
operational performance that the company has delivered over the past year. With 90 per cent of
its turnover generated through parent company, the revenue stream also seems concentrated. In
conclusion, looking at the above mentioned woes, we advise readers to book profits in the
counter at its current levels and fresh buying may be considered at cheaper levels of around Rs.
500-550 a share.
Our bearish attitude on the counter stems from its valuations. At a P/BV of 2.8x of its annualised
FY14E RoE of Rs 28.7%, we believe that the counter is very expensive in comparison of its own
past historical data
Recommendation History

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

3QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.6
36.9

1 yr Forward P/B

2QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.4
37.1

1QFY14
50.6
1.5
10.6
37.3

Date
25th April' 13
17th June' 13
10th July' 13
1st Aug' 13
26th Nov' 13
3rd Feb' 14

Report Type

CMP

Target Price

Change From
Previous in %

Company Update
Company Update
Company Update
Result Update
Result Update
Result Update

460
511
533
484
610
602

515
535
535
535
600
648

NA
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
12.1%
8.0%

Valuation
At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of Rs. 54.20 by 12.0x and FY15E EPS of
Rs. 61.7 by 10.5x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of
26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and
capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of Rs. 38 crore, the
company has strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 3060% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.


7

9

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014E

2015E

208
5
213
32
27
5
0
32
11
21
7
17.2
5.9

282
10
292
50
45
5
0
55
17
37
12
30.1
9.3

361
8
369
61
56
4
0
64
20
44
14
35.4
11.6

449
12
461
69
65
4
0
77
24
53
19
42.5
15.1

479
15
494
71
64
7
0
79
24
55
48
44.6
38.4

600
18
618
89
80
9
0
98
30
67
24
54.2
19.3

680
20
700
102
91
11
0
111
34
77
30
61.7
24.2

15.3%
15.5%
10.2%
8.0%
2.7%
21.9%
21.9%

17.6%
19.4%
13.2%
31.6%
9.8%
30.4%
30.4%

16.8%
17.8%
12.2%
12.2%
4.0%
28.8%
28.8%

15.5%
17.2%
11.8%
9.9%
3.5%
28.4%
28.4%

14.9%
16.6%
11.6%
11.3%
9.7%
28.6%
28.6%

14.8%
16.3%
11.2%
8.4%
3.0%
28.5%
28.5%

15.0%
16.3%
11.3%
9.5%
3.7%
26.6%
26.6%

97
1
214

123
1
95

152
1
290

186
1
429

194
1
395

236
1
648

287
1
648

Performance
Revenue
Other Income
Total Income
EBITDA
EBIT
DEPRICIATION
INTREST COST
PBT
TAX
Reported PAT
Dividend
EPS
DPS
Yeild %
EBITDA %
PBT %
NPM %
Earning Yeild %
Dividend Yeild %
ROE %
ROCE%
Position
Net Worth
No of Share
CMP
(Ammount in crore)
Valuation

Book Value
P/B
P/E
Net Sales/Equity


78.3
2.7
3.5
2.1

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)

98.8
1.0
5.3
2.3

122.6
2.4
5.6
2.4

150.0
2.9
5.1
2.4

156.0
2.5
6.8
2.5

190.2
3.4
12.0
2.5

231.5
2.8
10.5
2.4

(Figures In crore)


8

EROSMEDIA

"BUY"
5th March' 14

"Moving to Blockbuster"
Initiating Report

Buy

CMP

160

Target Price
Upside

200
25%

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol

533261
EROSMEDIA

52wk Range H/L
Nifty

195/107

1467
26241
6298

Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1yr

YTD

13.1
8.2

-7.3
-17.4

-

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

Current
74.88

2QFY14
74.88

12.45
1.56
11.11

12.16
1.87
11.09

P/BV-1 year forward

1QFY14
74.88
11.35
2.95
10.82

Healthy movies pipeline for FY15E; Company is expecting to release more than
8 big budget movies across Hindi and regional languages. Likewise, company is
going to release much awaited Rajnikanth’s movie Kochadaiiyaan on 11 April,
2014. Apart from this, company is expected to release Dishkiyaaoon, Shadi Ke
Side Effect, Action Jackson, Tanu weds Manu season 2, Sarkar3, Chalo China,
NH-10, Dekho Magar Pyaar Se, Happy Ending and Rana in FY15E.
It has largest Indian content library of films with 1100+ films and digital rights
to an additional 700 films. Its well positioned to monetize rich content of
library ensures annuity and regular set of revenue.
Considering diversified and sustainable Business Model along with well
positioned to monetize rich content of its library and block buster success ratio
of movies (out of the top 10 grossing films in recent years, 3 are from Eros.)
make us positive view on the stock.
About Company: Eros International Media (EROS) is one of the largest films coproduction and distribution company in India and overseas, engage with presales of overseas rights, music rights and broadcasting rights. It recovers 35-40%
of its costs by selling movie rights to channels, recovers another 35-40% from
selling its overseas rights to overseas entities. Similarly, it gets 10-15% of the
cost of movies by selling music rights .
Robust 3QFY14 Result: Company reported better numbers with sales growth of
17% (YoY) led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization, which increase by approx75% (YoY). Its PAT grew by 41%(YoY).
During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 680bps (YoY) to 31.3%
because of reduction in operational expenses and employee expenses.
Management expects to see EBITDA margin at 25% in FY14E and FY15E than 2022% range of margin in previous 4 years.
Recent initiatives: Eros has struck new deals during the period with MSM
Satellite Singapore private ltd for broadcast of films on Sony as well as with
Viacom18 media for broadcast films on colours.
Recently Eros International media has launched two new movie channels HBO
DEFINED and HBO HITS, which will reduce its dependence on highly
unpredictable revenue streams going forward.
View and Valuation: Management is very excited to invest into different
medium like internet and launching channels to generate revenue. Company’s
optimistic stance towards maintaining margins, strong movies slate and very low
valuation makes attractive. At a CMP of Rs 160, stock trades at 1.1 P/BVx FY15.
We initiate “BUY” with a target price of Rs 200.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin

3QFY14
432.68
135.6
92.0
31.3%
21.3%

2QFY14
201
51.2
37.0
25.4%
18.4%

(QoQ)-%
115.2
165.0
148.8
590bps
290bps

3QFY13
369.3
90.6
65.2
24.5%
17.7%

Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
17.2
49.6
41.1
680bps
360bps



9

EROSMEDIA
Sales and Sales growth(%)(yoy)
Key Concerns:
1. Piracy is the key concern for the

company. Indian film industry loses
approx. Rs.2000 cr. every year due to
piracy (source: FICCI-KPMG report 2009).
2. Lower consumer discretionary demand.

3. Difficult to predict fate of films.

Margin-%


Upcoming Movies:
Date of Release
Q4FY14E
28-Feb-14
21-Mar-14
28-Mar-14

Upcoming movies

Director

Starcast

Shaadi Ke Side Effects
Dishkiyaaoon
Happy Ending

Saket Chaudhary
Sanmjit Singh Talwar
Raj and DK

Farhan Akhtar,Vidya Balan
Sunny Deol, Harman Baweja
Saif Ali Khan, Ileana D'Cruz

Q1FY15
11-Apr-14
6-Jun-14

Kochadaiiyaan
Action Jackson

Soundarya Ashwin
Prabhu Deva

Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone
Ajay Devgn, Sonakshi Sinha

Q2FY15
12-Sep-14

NH-10

Navdeep singh

Anushka sharma,Neil bhoopalam

Tanu Weds Manu Season 2
R. Balki Untitled
Aankheen 2
Illuminati Untitled
Dekh Tamasha Dekh
Purani Jeans
Chalo china

Anand Rai
R.Balki
Apoorva Lakhia
Arif Ali
Feroz Abbas Khan
Tanushree Basu
Shashank Ghosh

R.Madhavan,Kangana Ranaut
Amitabh Bachchan, Dhanush
Abhishek Bachchan
Armaan Jain
Satish Kaushik and Others
Aditya Seal
Vinay Pathak, Lara Dutta

FY15E



10

EROSMEDIA
Management Guidance:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6

Catalogue monetization will continue to grow strong in the upcoming quarters.
Company will monetize entire portfolio across different platforms
Catalogue monetization will increase from 13%-14% to 20-25% of overall revenue in coming 3 to 4 years.
Management is looking for more and more free cash flows going forward.
Q4 will be very positive and going forward FY15E will also be very positive for the company.
Management is very confident about its performance going forward and expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in
FY14E and FY15E.

Financials;
Rs,cr
Sales
RM Cost(Operatinal expenses)
WIP
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortisation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax Exp
PAT
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
RM Cost
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Margin-%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Valuation:
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
P/BV
P/E

FY10
640.88
480.33
0
19.7
27.81
527.84
113.04
4.39
12.62
108.65
9.02
112.25
29.63
82.62

FY11
706.97
495.13
0.84
25.28
29.57
550.82
156.15
3.82
8.95
152.33
9.39
151.89
33.67
118.22

FY12
943.88
665.45
-2.92
22.55
42.96
728.04
215.84
6
19.3
209.84
13.44
215.7
63.14
152.56

FY13
1067.95
765.78
-2.55
27.29
47.47
837.99
229.96
6.45
6.4
223.51
9.22
220.69
61.19
159.5

FY14E
1110.8
766.5
-2.7
29.4
29.4
822.7
288.1
7.7
11.1
280.4
25.4
266.2
77.7
188.5

FY15E
1229.9
860.9
-2.9
36.9
36.9
931.8
298.1
9.2
12.3
288.9
26.0
275.2
80.4
194.8

16.9%
52.8%
72.1%

10.3%
38.1%
43.1%

33.5%
38.2%
29.0%

13.1%
6.5%
4.5%

4.0%
25.3%
18.2%

10.7%
3.5%
3.4%

74.9%
3.1%
4.3%
4.6%

70.0%
3.6%
4.2%
4.8%

70.5%
2.4%
4.6%
6.7%

71.7%
2.6%
4.4%
5.7%

69.0%
2.7%
2.7%
7.0%

70.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.5%

17.6%
17.0%
12.9%

22.1%
21.5%
16.7%

22.9%
22.2%
16.2%

21.5%
20.9%
14.9%

25.9%
25.2%
17.0%

24.2%
23.5%
15.8%

138.9
9.14
237.55
9.0
26.0
35%
5.3
15.4

138.9
9.14
670.48
12.9
73.4
17.6%
1.9
10.7

181.15
9.17
834.61
16.6
91.0
18.3%
2.0
10.9

180.53
9.19
986.5
17.4
107.3
16.2%
1.7
10.4

160.0
9.2
1158.6
20.5
126.1
16.3%
1.3
7.8

160.0
9.2
1337.0
21.2
145.5
14.6%
1.1
7.5



11

Escorts Ltd.

V-

"Buy"
5th Mar' 14

"Volume Growth Remains The Key; Retain Buy……."
Company update

Buy

CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous

115
175
95
52%
84%

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores)
Average Daily
Volume
Nifty

500495
ESCORTS
48/96
1,402
225,953
6,298

In February month company witnessed a good tractor volume number. In February 2014
company sold 4,627 tractors, growth of 7.5% against 4,305 tractors in February month of 2013.
Domestic sales in February 2014 up by 6.8% stood at 4,581 tractors as against 4,288 tractors in
February 2013. Export for the month of February 2014 stood at 46 tractors as that of 17
tractors in February 2013. Also during the last 17 months tractor sales grossed at 94553 units
as against 86337 units sold during corresponding period of 15 months last year. Going forward
management indicated that volume growth is to be in double digit and at arround 14%. The
management further indicated that margins should improve from the current level on the back
of improvement in the product mix, taking hikes in the prices, controlling inflation, rid of
inflation, as well as cutting down on the other costs.
Tractor Volume

Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1M
(7.5)
(10.9)

1yr
86.6
77.3

YTD
131.4
121.9

Promoter's
FII's
DII's
Others's

3QFY14
42.0
9.4
2.1
46.5

2QFY14 1QFY14
42.0
42.0
12.3
12.1
4.7
5.4
41.0
40.6


Outlook
An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand. The rise in volumes for this quarter
can be attributed to a good monsoon. Tractor sales seem to have improved across all players,
indicating an overall improvement in demand. We believe that this segment will continue to
support the growth of the company. The adverse macroeconomic conditions, however, will see
the performance of its construction equipment segment and auto ancillary segment remaining
subdued. For these businesses, the firm is looking at premium product positioning and to deliver
a better than expected customer experience. In addition, it is looking at the export market as a
window of opportunity especially in the auto ancillary business.
Valuation
The stock is currently trading at 6.5x FY14E EPS with a negative bias in case of construction
equipment segment due to adverse macroeconomic conditions . At current price of Rs. 117, the
stock is trading at P/E of 7.1 x for FY13E and 6.5 x the FY14E. Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 12.13
for FY14E and Rs. 12.98 for FY15E. An increase in volumes is an indication of healthy demand.
Tractor sales revival has enabled the company to register strong result. Escorts’ EBITDA margin
and bottom-line exceeded our expectations. Going forward, we remain positive on the
company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. Going forward, we remain positive on
the company’s growth prospects particularly in AMP segment. We expect demand to improve
further in FY2014E with the economic recovery. However, we remain cautious with regards to
growth in Construction Equipment segment in near-to-medium. Thus, We revise our estimates
upwards to factor in the strong CY13 tractor volume performance. We therefore revised our
rating on the stock from "Reduce" to "Buy" and advised to our investors to enter at current
level with Revised price target of Rs. 175

12

Escorts Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2014E 18
Months

2015E

2016E

2600
53
2653
160
100
60
67
86
29
57
11
6.3
1.2

3353
27
3380
220
172
48
18
181
49
132
11
12.5
1.0

4101
56
4157
168
120
48
71
104
-15
119
13
11.3
1.2

4049
48
4098
190
139
50
97
90
19
71
13
6.7
1.2

7424
75
7499
438
346
92
135
285
77
208
13
19.7
1.2

6186
60
6246
402
332
70
65
326
88
238
20
22.6
1.9

7424
72
7496
557
473
84
65
479
129
350
20
33.1
1.9

6.2%
3.2%
2.2%
5.7%
1.1%
4.0%
3.1%

6.6%
5.4%
3.9%
5.8%
0.5%
7.8%
6.3%

4.1%
2.5%
2.9%
15.9%
1.7%
6.7%
5.3%

4.7%
2.2%
1.7%
10.6%
1.9%
4.3%
3.2%

5.9%
3.8%
2.8%
17.3%
1.1%
11.4%
9.4%

6.5%
5.2%
3.8%
19.8%
1.7%
11.6%
9.8%

7.5%
6.4%
4.7%
29.1%
1.7%
14.7%
12.7%

1425
402
1827
9
110

1686
405
2091
11
216

1784
486
2270
11
71

1645
554
2199
11
64

1834
390
2224
11
114

2052
375
2427
11
114

2382
375
2757
11
114

157.1
0.7
1.5
17.5
1.4
1.8

159.6
1.4
9.5
17.3
1.6
2.0

168.9
0.4
1.7
6.3
1.8
2.3

155.8
0.4
1.4
9.5
1.8
2.5

173.6
0.7
2.6
5.8
3.3
4.0

194.3
0.6
5.1
5.1
2.5
3.0

225.5
0.5
7.3
3.4
2.7
3.1

Performance
Revenue
Other Income
Total Income
EBITDA
EBIT
DEPRICIATION
INTREST COST
PBT
TAX
Reported PAT
Dividend
EPS
DPS
Yeild %
EBITDA %
PBT %
NPM %
Earning Yeild %
Dividend Yeild %
ROE %
ROCE%
Position
Net Worth
Total Debt
Capital Employed
No of Share
CMP
Valuation
Book Value
P/B
Int/Coverage
P/E
Net Sales/CE
Net Sales/Equity


(Figures In crore)


13

Infosys

"BUY"
4th March' 14

"Meritocracy to growth"
Company update

BUY

Focus on meritocracy for client satisfaction as well as margin expansion;

CMP
Target Price
Upside

3793
3910
3620
3%
8%

In the recent webcast, Mr. Narayan Murthy expressed its view regarding senior level
exits from the company. In near term, non-performers in Infosys could be asked to
leave or may hand over layoff notices. Despite high salaries, some identified
employees are not contributing so much to improve productivity and efficiency of
operations. Already, the restructuring initiatives has taken place at the top of the
pyramid and now shifted to mid level of pyramid. Hence, its pink slip strategy indicates
to regain its growth and margin in near term.
Considering the strategy to build clients relation, execution of growth oriented policy
and combination of reduced onsite costs and higher utilization would be an optimistic
growth story despite recent hiccups of top management exit.
Key takeaways from recent webcast;
Restructuring at middle management: Mr. Murthy has taken initiatives to improve
cost efficiency and effective delivery system. The management has rewarded the top
performers and has given an opportunity to mediocre performers. Its PIP (performance
Improvement Program) followed by exam, and appraisal would dictate the level of
efficiency for mediocre, and the situation of involuntary attrition.

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Nifty

500209
INFY
3847/2190
217810
1240448
6221

Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

1M
4.5
0.8

1yr
30.4
21.6

YTD
53.1
49.4

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

Current
15.94
40.65
15.35
28.06

1 year forward P/E

2QFY14 1QFY14
15.94
16.04
39.93
39.55
16.16
18.28
27.97
26.13

Cost Rationalization: Company’s employee costs have ballooned very rapidly in the last
2-3 years. For example, on-site compensation was 36% of the overall revenue in FY11
and it went up to 46.3% in FY13, Overall employee cost on sales increased from
52%(FY09) to 56% (FY13). Company has hired a number of employees at higher salaries
outside India and employees are not adding efficient growth in productivity.
Improving utilization level: Comparing with other peers, its utilization level (excluding
trainees) declined from 80% in FY11 to 74% in FY13. Post NRN entry, company had
hiked offshore wage at the rate of 8% and overseas at 3%. We expect that company’s
management could decide for wage hike across onsite as well as offshore to enhance its
utilization rate in near term.
View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with
revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement
of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent
client traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with
rivals such as TCS.
On an ongoing basis, Infosys will retain its revenue acceleration and margin expansion,
also operating metrics will turn into greenery from hay. Upgradation of earning
guidance by management hinted to join the party to enjoy with 12-14% earnings
growth for FY14E like other top bellwether. At a CMP of Rs 3793, it trades at 17.4x
FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY” view on the stock with a target price of target
price of Rs 3910 .
Rs, Crore
Financials
3QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
(QoQ)-%
Revenue
13026
12965
10424
25.0
0.47
EBITDA
3258.9
2836.9
2677
21.7
14.88
PAT
2874.9
2406.9
2369
21.4
19.44
EBITDA Margin
25.0%
21.9%
310bps
25.7%
(70bps)
PAT Margin
22.1%
18.6%
350bps
22.7%
(60bps)

14

Infosys.
Employee cost on sales-%

Employee cost on sales at all time high


Total Employee and additions,

Looking to bring in about maximum 6,000
off-campus offers, Infosys will hire up to
16,000 engineers next year.


Headcount Metrics:

Its attrition increased to 18% from
17.3%(2QFY14) on LTM basis, however
on sequentially basis they have been able
to control its attrition. we hope that the
further salary hikes across the board will
bring down the attrition levels going
forward.


Utilization:

The Company's Utilization is likely to
keep inching up, which could lead to
margin expansion for a couple of
quarters and that is going to be a huge
positive for Infosys as a company.



15

Infosys.
Key facts from Management Interview;
■ Management upgraded its earning guidance for FY14E from 9-10% to 11.5-12%. This
guidnace means the company only has to achieve flat growth in the fourth quarter to
meet the projection.
■ With 85% of the company’s revenues coming from clients based in US and Europe, the
company should hope the current economic recovery in developed countries would help
its revenues.
■They are seeing confidence coming back from client’s metrics. However, they expect
[their] budgets only remain stable from last year. Clients are still focused on cost.
■ The Company is looking to bring in about maximum 6,000 off-campus offers starting
late January early February, so there is a lot of activity going on that is bringing people in,
engaging and developing.

Financials
Rs in Cr,
Sales, INR
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Total Expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest Cost
PBT
Tax
PAT
Growth-%
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Margin -%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Valuation
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
Dividen Payout ratio
P/BV
P/E

FY10
22742
12085
2792
14877
7865
905
982
7942
0
7942
1681
6261

FY11
27501
14856
3677
18533
8968
854
1211
9325
0
9325
2490
6835

FY12
33734
18340
4671
23011
10723
928
1904
11699
0
11699
3367
8332

FY13
40352
22565
6254
28819
11533
1099
2365
12799
0
12799
3370
9429

FY14E
50330
28185
8556
36741
13589
1371
2567
14785
0
14785
3992
10793

FY15E
59631
33691
10734
44425
15206
1624
3578
17160
0
17160
4633
12527

4.8%
9.3%
4.6%

20.9%
14.0%
9.2%

22.7%
19.6%
21.9%

19.6%
7.6%
13.2%

24.7%
17.8%
14.5%

18.5%
11.9%
16.1%

34.6%
34.9%
27.5%

32.6%
33.9%
24.9%

31.8%
34.7%
24.7%

28.6%
31.7%
23.4%

27.0%
29.4%
21.4%

25.5%
28.8%
21.0%

53.1%
12.3%
21.2%

54.0%
13.4%
26.7%

54.4%
13.8%
28.8%

55.9%
15.5%
26.3%

56.0%
17.0%
27.0%

56.5%
18.0%
27.0%

2615
57.4
23049.0
109.1
401.7
27.2%
25.1%
6.5
24.0

2765
57.4
25976.0
119.0
452.4
26.3%
45.9%
6.1
23.2

2865
57.4
31332.0
145.1
545.6
26.6%
24.0%
5.3
19.7

2400
57.4
37994.0
164.2
661.7
24.8%
45.1%
3.6
14.6

3793
57.4
45629.8
188.0
794.7
23.7%
23.0%
4.8
20.2

3793
57.4
54797.5
218.2
954.3
22.9%
19.8%
4.0
17.4



16

Powergrid..
Update

BUY

CMP
Target Price
Upside

95
118
NA
25%
NA

Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol

532898
POWERGRID

1yr
9.5
3.8

YTD
8.1
4.0

Strong Capitalization : Power Grid’s adjusted PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs. 1,043 crore
in Q3FY14 While asset capitalisation was below estimate Rs. 3050 crore, PGCIL
commissioned another Rs. 3450 crore in January 2014 taking overall capitalisation to Rs.
13000 crore YTDFY14.

Promoters
FII
DII
Others

3QFY14
57.9
25.4
8.6
8.2

Overall revenues increased 9.6% YoY to Rs.3685 crore due to lower than anticipated
capitalisation (Rs.3050 crore) in Q3FY14 . Income increased 6.5%, 10.0% and 121.9% YoY
in transmission, telecom and consultancy income, respectively. Other income declined
9.7% YoY to Rs.116 crore as cash was deployed across various upcoming projects.
Margins declined 336 bps YoY to 87.4% due to 55.7% YoY rise in transmission & other
expenses to Rs.333 crore. Tax expenses increased 7.5% YoY to Rs. 399 crore. Q3FY13
included a one-time income of Rs.167 crore as wage revision benefit. Adjusting the same,
PAT increased 4.3% YoY to Rs.1,043 crore.
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) issued the final tariff regulations for
the period FY15-19 – these regulations form the basis of Power Grid’s earnings (regulated
returns) from its core transmission business over the next five years.The Key take aways
of these Regulations are Normative TAF (NATAF) for incentives lowered; no incentive for
TAF >99.75% .Normative O&M charges raised (vs. draft), but still below FY14 levels.

Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty

3rd march' 14

116/87
49490
22270
6277

52wk Range H/L
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty

1M
8.2
9.5

"Buy"

2QFY14 1QFY14
57.9
69.4
19.4
14.7
8.8
7.6
13.9
8.3

1 yr Forward P/B

Capitalisation of assets remains on track. Till Jan end the company has capitalised Rs
118bn of assets which is 70% of our full year estimate. Since last two months of the year
usually account for the bulk of yearly commissioning we are confident that the co. will meet
our estimate of Rs 170bn for FY14.

Power Grid's Raichur-Solapur line has been connected to national grid. Management Says
there were four trippings in the first week. Two were to increase reliability and were
done intentionally, and the other two were because of a few glitches. For the last month
there has been no tripping.
View & Recommendation
With equity dilution overhang on the stock is removed, so we expect the stock price will
drive by purely on its fundamentals, on our estimates we maintain a positive fundamental
outlook for Power grid. Also, govt. stake coming down to 58% is a positive, as risk of
further equity dilution is reduced
The stock is trading at 1.7x FY15E BVPS. We estimate to Power grid stock to trade at 1.8x
BVPS. Valuation is very reasonable for a business model with RoE (16%), strong growth
visibility and minimal operational risks. We valued stock for a 12 month period at a target
price of Rs.118.


Financials :
Revenue
EBIDTA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
NPM%

Q3FY14
3685
3105
988
84
27

Y-o-Y %
9.4
6.0
-8.5
-3.1
-16.3

Q-o-Q %
-7.9
-8.4
-16.9
-0.6
-9.8

Q3FY13
3369
2930
1080
87
32

Q2FY14
3999
3389
1189
85
30
(In Crs)


17

N arnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
em ail: research@narnolia.com ,
w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com

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the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
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action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
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consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
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