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Late referral

                             Early referral

                               Survival (months)


                            Initiation of dialysis

                            Conclusion: early referral has a large effect
                            on the survival on dialysis

Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Late referral

                             Early referral

                              Survival (months)


                            GFR of 10 mL/min




Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Initiation of dialysis for late referrals

                             Late referral

                             Early referral

                              Survival (months)
                                         Initiation of dialysis for early referrals
                            GFR of 10 mL/min




Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Survival time off
      dialysis gained by                             Initiation of dialysis for late referrals
      the late initiation
               of dialysis
                              Late referral

                              Early referral

                               Survival (months)
                                          Initiation of dialysis for early referrals
                             GFR of 10 mL/min
                             New conclusion: early referral results in
                             earlier initiation of dialysis and prolonged
                             survival on dialysis but does not change
                             patient survival.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009

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Lead Time Bias

  • 1. Late referral Early referral Survival (months) Initiation of dialysis Conclusion: early referral has a large effect on the survival on dialysis Wednesday, March 11, 2009
  • 2. Late referral Early referral Survival (months) GFR of 10 mL/min Wednesday, March 11, 2009
  • 3. Initiation of dialysis for late referrals Late referral Early referral Survival (months) Initiation of dialysis for early referrals GFR of 10 mL/min Wednesday, March 11, 2009
  • 4. Survival time off dialysis gained by Initiation of dialysis for late referrals the late initiation of dialysis Late referral Early referral Survival (months) Initiation of dialysis for early referrals GFR of 10 mL/min New conclusion: early referral results in earlier initiation of dialysis and prolonged survival on dialysis but does not change patient survival. Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Editor's Notes