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Macau Daily Financial Commentary 08 07 14
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Macau Daily Financial Commentary 08 07 14
1.
Seng Heng Bank
– Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 財來自有方 刊登日期:二零零八年六七月十四日 (澳門日報) 作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析師黃碩東 次按危機還未見底 近期環球股市繼續受次按問題拖累下跌,多只美國金融股屢創新低.次按危 機好像沒完沒了,以下筆者將會分析次按問題會否持續. 於2000年科網爆破及經歷911事件後,為了挽救經濟,聯儲局大幅度 減息,基準利率由00年之6.5厘大減至03年最低1厘,為半世紀之低位. 在低貸款利率及經濟開始復甦之環境下,令美國之房地產市場快速升溫.由於經 濟好轉,很多信貸較差之買家均向銀行以浮息借貸置業.而銀行由於流動性充足, 為了吸引更多買家,大多數都會給予買家 2-3 年之低息優惠期.而於優惠期過後按 揭便回復至較高之利率.由於經濟快速好轉,聯儲局自減息至1厘後於04年中 便掉頭加息,而且一加就是連續加10多次.於06年頭基準利率已經升至4. 25%,很多於03-04年購入房屋之業主均面對利率從置,供款金額因而大 大提升.但這些業主根本沒有能力在高息下供款,加上樓價並沒有預期般的升幅, 更開始回落,再加按或出售變得困難,很多業主都選擇停止供款,一走了之,這 便產生了次按問題. 為了減低貸款之風險,於貸款給那些低信貸業主後,銀行及貸款公司便將這 些次級按揭資產證券化,出售給投資銀行及機構投資者,由於回報率吸引,在當 時低利率之環境及樓價持續上升下,產品快速普及,資產證券化市場急速擴張, 造就了今次大型之金融風暴.
2.
有研究指出,總值約 4000 億美元的次級浮動利率按揭於
07 年結束優惠期, 而這數字於 08 年將升至 5000 億美元.在當前失業率上升及高通脹之環境下,可 預期將有更多業主無力供款.近期之數據也顯示拖欠情況嚴重.拖欠比率於 08 年 5 月上升至 25%,而去年同期只是 16%.而 6 月之房屋贖回權喪失數目更較去 年同期增加 53%,且銀行收回房屋數量幾乎擴增為 3 倍.世銀估計次按風暴之 總損失可能高達 1 萬億美元,但直至今年 5 月中全球金融機構只錄得 3790 億美元 之次按損失,即還有 5000 億美元以上之損失需要入帳.所以從上述之論點可見, 筆者認為次按問題很大機會不會於今年內完結. 讀者如有任何意見可電郵至: feedback@stshb.com
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