Long‐term Household Projections

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National Housing Research Committee - Comité national du recherche sur le logement

How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada. Richard Gabay, Senior Researcher, CMHC

Sector inmobiliario Empresariales Economía y finanzas

Long-term Household Growth Projections Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data 2 November 2009

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 Presentation Overview

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Household Projections at CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 Household Projections at CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6

PHD Modelling Framework CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Base population Survival rates Fertility rates Migration Projected headship rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected population (age & sex) Projected households (family & non-family, by age) Projected ownership rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected dwelling type rates (family & non-family, by tenure, age) Projected households (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Headship Rate Approach

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Household Formation vs Housing Demand

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11 Projection Scenarios

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 Population Growth Assumptions

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 International Migration Scenarios

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 Household Growth Assumptions

Family and Non-family Headship Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 1971 2006 Non-family Family Non-family Family

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 16 Population Growth Projections ,[object Object]

Immigration slows the impact of population ageing,[object Object]

Births rise initially but decline after 2020,[object Object]

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 Household Growth Projected to Decline

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 20 Non-family Households Expected to Make Gains ,[object Object],[object Object]

Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)

Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth

Future growth rests on relative size and pace of growth of young adult population.,[object Object]

Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines

Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually

Growth in Other declines throughout projection in all scenarios,[object Object]

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Aggregate Ownership Rate Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Projection Considerations

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Major Implications

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Long‐term Household Projections

1. Long-term Household Growth Projections Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data 2 November 2009

2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 Presentation Overview

3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3

4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Household Projections at CMHC

5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 Household Projections at CMHC

6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6

7. PHD Modelling Framework CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Base population Survival rates Fertility rates Migration Projected headship rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected population (age & sex) Projected households (family & non-family, by age) Projected ownership rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected dwelling type rates (family & non-family, by tenure, age) Projected households (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)

8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Headship Rate Approach

9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Household Formation vs Housing Demand

10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10

11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11 Projection Scenarios

12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 Population Growth Assumptions

13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 International Migration Scenarios

14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 Household Growth Assumptions

15. Family and Non-family Headship Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 1971 2006 Non-family Family Non-family Family

16.

17.

18.

19. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 Household Growth Projected to Decline

20.

21. Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)

22. Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth

23.

24. Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines

25. Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually

26.

27. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Aggregate Ownership Rate Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036

28. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked

29. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise

30. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Projection Considerations

31. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Major Implications

32. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29

33. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 30 Comparison With Other Projections

34. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31 Household Growth Projections *Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020. †The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.

Long‐term Household Projections

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