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SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER
        ERIC THOMPSON, ELLEN J. HAHN, GLENN BLOMQUIST, JOHN GAREN, DON MULLINEAUX,
                             NOLA OGUNRO and MARY K. RAYENS*


           This study examines how smoke-free laws influence turnover among restaurant
        workers. The study uses a unique data set of payroll records of a franchisee of
        a national full-service restaurant chain operating 23 restaurants in the state of
        Arizona, a state where several communities have adopted smoke-free laws. Municipal
        smoke-free laws did not, on average, have a statistically signiflcant effect on the prob-
        ability of employee separation in the years after implementation. These results suggest
        that training costs associated with employee turnover would not rise for full-service
        restaurants in municipalities that adopt smoke-free laws. {JEL 118, J63)

                 I.   INTRODUCTION                               aggregate level of industry activity, business
   While health and safety regulations are                       costs, and labor market behavior of workers.
often set at the state and federal level, many                   This is particularly true of the bar and restau-
local jurisdictions also have the power to enact                 rant industries, and other recreation and
workplace regulations. In particular, there is                   entertainment industries, since business own-
a growing trend toward local regulation of                       ers in these industries frequently choose to
workplace smoking. Today, nearly 570 local                       allow smoking.
municipalities and 21 states plus the District                       Health advocates support local smoking
of Columbia have enacted 100% smoke-free                         ordinances as a public health strategy to
laws in workplaces. Enacting the first local                     enhance the safety of workplaces.' But like
"clean indoor air" laws in 1973, Arizona led                     all such safety regulations, including safety reg-
the way among states. These local workplace                      ulations at construction sites, mines, or
regulations have the potential to influence the                  manufacturing plants, smoke-free laws have
                                                                 potential to introduce economic inefficiencies.
    *The authors gratefully acknowledge comments pro-
                                                                 Free from safety regulation, workers may
vided by two anonymous referees and the financial assis-         choose to trade workplace safety for higher
tance of The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation                      wages or other desirable features of a job. Min-
Substance Abuse Policy Research Program.                         imum safety standards cause some workers to
Thompson: Associate Professor of Economics, Depart-              accept something less than what they would
    ment of Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln,
    Lincoln, NE 68588. Phone402-472-3318, Fax 402-472-           consider an optimal mix of safety, wages,
   9700, E-mail ethompson2@unl.edu                               and other employment features (Pakko,
Halm: Professor, School of Nursing, University of Ken-           2005). One implication is that the introduction
    tucky, Lexington, K.Y 40506. Phone 859-257-2358,
    Fax 402-323-1057, E-mail ejhahnOO@uky.edu
                                                                 of a smoke-free law may cause some workers to
Blomquist: Pollard Endowed Professor of Economics,               leave employment at bar and restaurant busi-
    Department of Economics, University of Kentucky,             nesses in municipalities with smoke-free laws,
    Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859-257-3924, Fax                 although the introduction also may encourage
   402-323-1920, E-mail gcblom@uky.edu
Garen: Gatton Endowed Professor of Economics, Depart-            other workers to seek employment.
   ment of Economics University of Kentucky, Lexington,              Recent literature has examined the influ-
    KY 40506. Phone 859-257-3581, Fax 402-323-1920,              ence of smoke-free laws in terms of customer
    E-mail jgaren@uky.edu
MuUineaux: duPont Endowed Chair in Banking and Pro-
   fessor of Finance, Department of Finance, University              1. Bar and restaurant workers' exposure to second-
   of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 402-257-              hand tobacco smoke is 1.5-4.4 times greater than that
   2890, Fax 402-257-9688, E-mail mullinea@uky.edu               of individuals living with smokers (Siegel, 1993). For evi-
Ogunro: Graduate Student in Economics, University of             dence that passive smoking causes coronary heart disease,
   Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859-552-                 lung cancer, and various respiratory ailments (see U.S.
   9005, Fax 402-323-1920, E-mail nogun2@uky.edu                 Department of Health and Human Services, 2006; Law
Rayens: Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Univer-          and Wald, 2003; Wells, 1998). Passive smokers also expe-
   sity of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859-             rience other health conditions including eye irritation,
   323-1670, Fax 402-323-1057, E-mail mkrayens@                  headaches, nasal symptoms, coughs, wheezing, and
   uky.edu                                                       hoarseness (Wakefield et al., 2003).

                                                           351
Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1074-3529)
Vol. 26, No. 3, July 2008, 351-359                                  doi: 10.1111/j. 1465-7287.2007.00091 .x
Online Early publication January 16, 2008                           © 2008 Western Economic Association International
352                           CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY


demand to patronize businesses in the hospi-       staff. The match between new workers and
tality industry (Corsun, Young, and Enz, 1996;     their employers develop in the smoke-free
Glantz and Smith, 1997; Hyland, Cummings,          environment, so that the smoke-free law does
and Nauenberg, 1999; Pakko, 2005). Other           not represent any shock to the match. The
recent literature has measured private market      employee separation rate in the long run could
provision of smoke-free environments to            be higher, lower, or no different for restau-
accommodate consumer preferences and the           rants in municipalities with smoke-free laws.
differential effect of smoke-free laws on res-        In this study we use a panel data set with
taurant and bar profitability (Dunham and          treatment and control groups to examine
Mariow, 2000, 2003, 2004). The purpose of          the influence of local smoke-free laws on
this study was to examine how laws influence       employee separations. A logistic regression
employee turnover, which is a key determi-         of employee separation was estimated using
nant of operating cost for the industry. We        data on employees of a franchiser of a national
examine whether the likelihood of employee         restaurant chain operating in the state of
separation from a job at a full-service restau-    Arizona over a 5-yr period. The chain operates
rant is influenced by the introduction or          full-service restaurants serving alcohol, with
presence of a local smoke-free law, after con-     seating for an average of 190 customers,
trolling for other factors that influence          and offering mid-price meals. Dunham and
employee separation.                               Mariow (2000, 2003) note that the introduc-
                                                   tion of smoke-free laws has a varying impact
              II.   METHODOLOGY
                                                   on different segments of the restaurant indus-
                                                   try. Profitability is most impacted in restau-
   The likelihood of a worker separating from      rants with more seating, a larger share of
their job falls with tenure as workers learn       sales from alcohol, and a larger share of seat-
more about the rewards and conditions of           ing in the smoking-allowed section but is not
a particular job and employers learn more          impacted by whether a restaurant is part of
about the performance of workers (Bartel           a chain or independent.^ The restaurants we
and Borjas, 1977; Jovanovic, 1979; Viscusi,        examine, with large seating capacity and alco-
1980). Personal characteristics such as educa-     hol sales, have the characteristics of restau-
tion, age, health, and sex further influence the   rants likely to be impacted by smoke-free laws.
likelihood of separation (Bartel and Borjas,           The panel data set included payroll records
1977; Meitzen, Í986; Mincer and Jovanovic,
                                                   available for 2-wk pay periods for employees
1981; Royalty, 1998).
                                                   of 23 Arizona restaurants from April 1999 to
   The introduction of a smoke-free law also       April 2004 (see Table 1), as well as employee
could influence the match between an existing      characteristics such as age, race, gender, and
worker and their job. The law may represent        occupation. Each 2-wk employee pay period
a shock to the "match" for existing workers,       served as a single observation. The restaurant
leading to an increase in separation rates.
                                                   franchiser allowed smoking at its restaurants
While many workers may prefer to work in
a smoke-free workplace, other job attributes       in the absence of a municipal smoke-free law.
such as earnings from tips also may change         Ofthe 23 restaurants, 12 were located in munic-
as a municipal smoke-free law is implemented.      ipalities with a smoke-free law as of 2004. Pres-
Dunham and Mariow (2003) note that restau-         ence of a smoke-free ordinance was obtained
rants negatively impacted by smoke-free laws       from the Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights
are more likely to increase job responsibilities   database (www.no-smoke.org) and confirmed
for their workers. Some existing workers may       with the company management.
flnd the new bundle of job attributes inferior         Three of the restaurants opened smoke free
to the previous arrangement. This is particu-      (one in Tucson, one in Mesa, and one in Gil-
larly true of any group workers, such as work-     bert). The smoke-free ordinance in Mesa also
ers who smoke, who may have found                  was implemented before April 1999, so that
a smoking-allowed work environment to be           our database for the Mesa restaurants only
an amenity.                                        contained observations for workers in the
   The long-run effects of smoke-free laws on      period after the smoke-free law was in effect.
employee separation rates are less clear, how-        2. Dunham and Mariow (2004) report that chain res-
ever. Over the long run, there is turnover in      taurants offered more space for nonsmoking seating.
THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER                                          353


                                                  TABLE 1
                                    Statistics for Arizona Restaurants
                                                                                            Date When Community
Location                                 Opened                     County                    went Smoke Free
Restaurants in communities with smoke-free laws as of 2004
  Mesa, Arizona (1)                  December 1992                Maricopa                  July 1996
  Mesa, Arizona (2)                  November 1992                Maricopa                  July 1996
  Mesa, Arizona (3)                  June 1993                    Maricopa                  July 1996
  Mesa, Arizona (4)                  November 1998                Maricopa                  July 1996
  Tempe, Arizona (1)                 June 1994                    Maricopa                  May 2000
  Tempe, Arizona (2)                 April 1997                   Maricopa                  May 2000
  Chandler, Arizona                  November 1997                Maricopa                  October 2003
  Gilbert, Arizona                   May 2002                     Maricopa                  May 2001
  Tucson, Arizona (1)                September 1991               Pima                      October 1999
  Tucson, Arizona (2)                May 1994                     Pima                      October 1999
 Tucson, Arizona (3)                 March 1997                   Pima                      October 1999
 Tucson, Arizona (4)                January 2000                  Pima                      October 1999
Restaurants in communities without smoke-free laws as of 2004
  Phoenix, Arizona (1)               December 1992                Maricopa                 No
  Phoenix, Arizona (2)               May 1995                     Maricopa                 No
  Phoenix, Arizona (3)              October 1995                  Maricopa                 No
  Pheonix, Arizona (4)              June 2002                     Maricopa                 No
  Peoria, Arizona                   September 1993                Maricopa                 No
  Scottsdale, Arizona               December 1994                 Maricopa                 No
  Prescott, Arizona                  February 1996                Yavapai                  No
 Glendale, Arizona                  August 1996                   Maricopa                 No
 Goodyear, Arizona                  October 2000                  Maricopa                 No
 Surprise, Arizona                  June 2001                     Maricopa                 No
 Sierra Vista, Arizona              September 2003                Cochise                  No



Six remaining restaurants were in municipali-             only after the restaurant's municipality imple-
ties that were not smoke free in April 1999, but          mented a smoke-free law.^ The control group
then implemented a smoke-free law later                   in the analysis consisted of restaurant payroll
either in October 1999 (Tucson), May 2000                 records during any period when the restaurant
(Tempe), or in October 2003 (Chandler).                   did not face a local smoke-free law, either
Given the relatively short tenure of restaurant           because the municipality where the restaurant
workers (see Table 2), the 7 mo of preban data            was located never had a smoke-free law or
for workers in Tucson restaurants and 12 mo               because the law was not yet in effect. There
in Tempe are sufficient for preban and post-              were 90,810 payroll records in the control
ban comparisons of separation rates within                group.
restaurants.                                                  Age, gender, ethnicity, job tenure, occupa-
   The two treatment groups used in the anal-             tion, and separation date were obtained from
ysis included restaurant payroll records during           company payroll system records. The payroll
any period when a restaurant operated under               database did not include data on other per-
a local smoke-free law. Treatment Group I                 sonal characteristics of workers that could
included 14,927 postban payroll records from              influence employee separation rates, such as
employees who worked at a restaurant both                 education level and marital status, or other
before and after the municipality where the               factors that could influence worker reaction
restaurant was located implemented a smoke-
free law. For these workers, the introduction
of a smoke-free law represented a potential                   3. Therefore, Treatment Group II included payroll
"shock" to their work situation. Treatment                records for employees ofthe three restaurants that opened
                                                          smoke free, and employees of the nine restaurants in
Group II included 69,966 payroll records                  Treatment Group I who started working there only after
for employees who worked at a restaurant                  the restaurant became smoke free.
354                                CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY



                  TABLE 2                               job tenure squared, and personal characteris-
               Summary Statistics                       tics (age, gender, and race/ethnicity), as well as
                                                        a variable indicating the presence of a smoke-
                                            Standard    free law. There also was a dummy variable for
Variable                          Mean      Deviation
                                                        each restaurant to control for idiosyncratic
Probability of separation and tenure                    working conditions, and a dummy variable
  % separating during                4.2      20.0      for each month-year from April 1999 through
    the pay period                                      April 2004 to account for season and business
  Tenure (d)                      539          632      cycle impacts. Some employees had two
  Tenure squared (d)              685.343   1,603,303   employment spells at a restaurant, and each
Personal characteristics
                                                        spell was treated as separate members of the
  Gender (%)
                                                        panel. A dummy variable was used to indicate
    Male                           47.8       50.0
                                                        the second employment spell. In the logistic
    Female                         52.2       50.0
                                                        regression, standard errors were adjusted for
  Age (yr)                         26.1        7.0
                                                        clustering on employee-specific identification
  Race (%)
    White                          71.4       45.2
                                                        numbers.
    Black                            3.0      17.1          The second model pooled Treatment
    Hispanic                       20.3       40.2       Group I with the control group. The third
    American Indian/Alaska           1.2      11.0      model pooled Treatment Group II with the
       Native                                           control group. For all three models, we pres-
    Asian/Pacific Islander           0.1       2.9      ent coefficient estimates from the logistic
    Not specified                    4.0      19.5       regression as well as estimates of each varia-
Occupation (%)                                           ble's marginal effect.
  Server                           54.8       49.8
                                                            Models 1 through 3 contain a single dummy
  Hostess                           17.1      37.6
                                                         variable indicating that an employee works at
  Bartender                          2.0      13.9
                                                         a restaurant in a municipality covered by
  Kitchen                          24.3       42.9
                                                         a smoke-free law during a particular pay
  All other occupations              1.8      13.4
                                                         period. Coefficient estimates for the dummy
                                                         variable indicate that the average effect of
                                                         a smoke-free law on employee turnover in
to a municipal smoke-free ordinance, such as             the years after the law is in effect. The models,
smoking behavior. Observations were avail-               however, do not capture how the effect of
able for each 2-wk pay period for the entire             smoke-free laws may vary over time. In partic-
employment period. Separation was assumed                ular, such a law may have a differential effect
to occur at the date of each worker's last entry         in the first few months it is in effect relative to
in the payroll record. Of the approximately              the longer term. It is in this initial period when
9,300 workers in the payroll database, roughly           most existing workers are facing a shock to
one-third were still employed with the fran-             working condition in regards to secondhand
chiser at the end of the data set.                       smoke in the workplace. In the longer run,
   The first model pooled observations from              as there is a natural turnover in restaurant
members of Treatment Group I, Treatment                  staff, most workers will have joined the staff
Group II, and the control group. This model              after the municipal smoke-free law was in
examined the impact of a smoke-free law on               place. The long-run effect, if any, could differ
the probability of separation for all restaurant         from the initial effect.
employees after a smoke-free law was in effect,             We tested for this possibility by developing
regardless of when the workers began working             an additional model. In this fourth model, we
at the restaurants. A variable indicating                use the full sample from the first model (both
whether each employee's place of work oper-              the treatment groups and the control group)
ated under a smoke-free law in a particular              and replace the single dummy variable indicat-
pay period was assigned a value of 1 for all             ing that the smoke-free law is in effect with
members of either T^reatment Group I or II               a set of 13 dummy variables, which indicate
and a value of 0 for all members ofthe control           the amount of time that had passed since
group. The probability of separation for                 the law went into effect. The first dummy in-
employees in any particular period was mod-              dicates that the smoke-free law was in effect
eled as a function of an employee's job tenure.          for one quarter or less; the second dummy
THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER                                 355


indicates that the law was in effect from 4 to             In all three regressions, the probability of
6 mo (i.e., the second quarter after the law went       separation fell with tenure in the job. At mean
into effect). There are 12 such dummy varia-            values for tenure and tenure squared, the mar-
bles for the first 12 quarters the law is in effect,    ginal effect of additional days of tenure
and afinaldummy variable indicating that the            reduced the probability of separation. Fur-
law had been effect for more than 3 yr.                 ther, reestimates of the marginal effects at
                                                        higher levels of tenure (such as tenure =
                  III.   RESULTS
                                                        2,000 d and tenure squared = 4,000,000 d)
                                                        indicated that the marginal effect of additional
    Table 2 presents summary statistics for the         days of tenure would remain negative. Thus,
workers in this sample. On average, 4.2% of             the relationship between the greater tenure
workers separated from employment during                and the probability of separation was negative
a single 2-wk pay period. The average tenure           even for an average tenure of more than 5 yr
of workers at any time during the 5-yr period           (2000 d is roughly 5.5 yr).
was 539 d, which is roughly 1.5 yr. More than              The probability of separation also was
half of the employees were female. More than            lower for workers in their second spell of
70% of workers were white, while roughly 20%           employment at a restaurant in both the all
were Hispanic and 3% were African Ameri-               workers and the new workers regression. This
can. The average age of workers was 26 yr              could have occurred because workers in their
(standard deviation = 7 yr). More than half            second spell were more familiar with the
of the workers were employed as servers,                requirements of the job and managers also
about one-quarter as kitchen workers, one-             were more familiar with the workers. No sta-
sixth as hosts, and a fraction as bartenders           tistically significant difference was found in
or other occupations.                                  the existing workers regression, but this may
    Coefficient estimates from the logistic            have simply refiected the smaller sample size
regression are presented in Table 3, along with        available.
estimates on the marginal effect of each vari-             The probability of separation was related to
able on the probability of separation. The             ethnicity in all three regressions. Relative to
marginal effects are estimated at the mean             white workers, the probability of separation
value for all variables. Coefficients for individ-     was lower for Hispanic workers. Gender
ual month and restaurant dummies are not               was not related to the probability of separa-
reported for brevity but are available from            tion in any ofthe three regressions. In all three
the first author upon request.                         regressions, the probability of separation was
    Results for all workers in Table 3 are for         lower for other occupations than for the omit-
the case where Treatment Group I, Treatment            ted category, kitchen workers. This makes
Group II, and the control group were pooled.           sense because the other occupations category
The treatment group contains pay period                includes managers who have longer tenure.
observations for all workers at a restaurant           The probability of separation also was lower
operating under a smoke-free law, regardless           for bartenders in two of the three regressions.
of" whether they joined the restaurant before              Finally, in all three regressions, no statisti-
(Treatment Group I) or after (Treatment                cally significant relationship was found
Group II) the smoke-free law went into effect.         between the presence of a smoke-free law
    Results for existing workers were for the          and the probability of employee separation.
case where Treatment Group I and the control           The coefficient on the "law in effect" variable
group were pooled. The treatment group con-            is not statistically significant in any of the
tains pay period observations for workers at           regressions. This implies that there is no effect,
a restaurant operating under a smoke-free              on average, on the probability of separation in
law but who joined the restaurant staff before         the years after a smoke-free law is adopted by
the law was implemented. Results for new               a municipality. This finding, however, does
workers were for the case when Treatment               not preclude an effect in the initial periods
Group II and the control group were pooled.            after the smoke-free law is adopted when
The treatment group contains pay period                the law provides an initial shock to the work-
observations for workers who joined the res-           ing conditions of existing restaurant workers.
taurant staff only after the smoke-free law            For example, there could be an initial increase
was in effect.                                         in separation rates for existing workers after
356                                     CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY




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THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER                            357



                  S                                  the law is implemented, but several years later,
                                                     the long-run separation rate (for workers who
              orl
                         «

                                                     joined the restaurant after the law was imple-
                  0»
                         o                           mented) may be lower in municipalities with
                         Ö
                             1
                                                     smoke-free laws. The effect of the smoke-free
                                                     law on separation rates varies through time,
                                                     but the average effect is zero.
                  f
                                                         To test this possibility, we estimated
                                                     a fourth regression, where the "law in effect"
              rkei




        1
        u         o      *                           variable from the all workers regression was
                         *
        e
                         (N
                         o
                                                     replaced with 13 dummy variables indicating
              tin




        'I               s
                         Ö
                                                     the length of time that a municipal smoke-free
              .a
               X             1                       law had been in effect. Joint significance tests
                                                     indicated that the coefficients on these 13
                                                     dummy variables were not jointly different
                                                     from zero. This suggests that there was no sig-
                                                     nificant effect on separation rates through
              1          *
                                                     time, just as no average effect was identified
                         231




                                                     in Table 3.
                         o
                         o                               Coefficients for several individual dummy
                          1
                                                     variables were significant, however. In Figure 1,
                                                     we present the individual estimates from this
                                                     regression for these 13 dummy variables. In par-
                                                     ticular, we show the estimated marginal effect
              orlkers




                                                     for each of the 12 quarterly dummy variables
                                                     and the 13th variable indicating that the
                          160,'
                         1.200


                          .041




   O)
                         9.13




hJ .S
                                                     smoke-free law had been effect for more than
              Z              1 1                     3yr.
HO                                                      There is a statistically significant decline in
                                                     the separation rate for workers in first quarter
                                                     after the smoke-free law is implemented.'* In
              ters




                                                     other words, workers are less likely to separate
        B
        ,a
        2         o      *                           from their job in the first few months the law
         u
        !Ç                                           was in effect. Point estimates remain negative
        oei




                  o'     m   o q
                         O                          throughout thefirsteight quarters that the law
              isti




        U                Ö 1
                          1                          was in effect, and the negative marginal effect
                                                     is statistically significant in the sixth quarter.
                                           i         Point estimates alternate between negative
                                           te
                                                     and positive values beginning with the ninth
                  s:                       a         quarter and are not statistically significant.
                                                     These quarterly results do not show a consis-
              Ail Work

                         .088*
                         .97




                                                     tent impact on separation rates.
                                 oo
                             1 1                        Over the longer run, we did not find evi-
                                                     dence of a relationship between municipal
                                           1         smoke-free laws and separation rates. There
                                                     was no statistically significant relationship
                                                     between the introduction of municipal smoke-
                                                     free laws and the probability of separation
                          C                          beyond 18 mo.
                          O
                         cupat




                                                         4. We also examined whether the probability of sepa-
                                                     ration changed in the quarter before the local smoking ban
                                                     was implemented, as workers anticipated the coming
              3          e            o
                                                     change. We did not find a statistically significant change
              ial




               k-
                         tu
                         .G
                                      'S             in the chances of separation in the quarter before imple-
              >          Ô                           mentation.
358                                                CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY


                         FIGURE 1                                       aration rates across all quarters was not sig-
 Marginal Effect of the Presence of a Local                             nificantly different from zero. Further, there
  Smoke-Free Law on the Probability of                                  was no evidence of a relationship between
                 Separation                                             smoke-free laws and employee separation
                                                                        beyond 18 mo.
      0.004                                                                Taken together, these results suggest that
                                                                        municipal smoke-free laws did not change
o
£
      0.002
          0
                               •   '   '           •   /
                                                           /x /
                                                            •   V
                                                                       the separation rate for workers in the long
                                                                        run. The laws also did not induce an increase
ñ     -0.002
                   /      ^                   /                        in employee turnover in the initial period after
•g) -0.004                                                              implementation by disrupting the match
               /
g     -0.006                              /
                                                                        between existing full-service restaurant work-
      -0.008                       V                                    ers and their employers. The latter result
                                                                        implies that in the quarters after the imple-
                                                                        mentation of a smoke-free law, the change
                                                                        in bundle of working conditions—which could
                       Quarters Since Law In Effect
                                                                        include changes in earnings from tips as well as
   Note: ( • ) indicates statistical significance at the 10%            the change in workplace smoking—did not
confidence level.                                                       increase the rate of separation among existing
                                                                        workers overall.
         IV.   DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
                                                                           By contrast, the limited evidence we did
                                                                        find of a change in separation rates suggests
    Previous economic research on smoke-free                            that restaurant workers are for a period more
laws has focused on how these laws affect                               likely to remain in their job after the imple-
demand for businesses in the hospitality indus-                         mentation of a smoke-free law, perhaps exper-
try or on the differential effect of smoke-free                         imenting with the new working conditions.
laws on restaurant and bar profitability. The                              These aggregate results do not imply that
current study is an effort to examine how                               municipal smoke-free laws have no impact
smoke-free laws influence the behavior of res-                          on the welfare of restaurant workers. The
taurant workers. In particular, we examined                             mix of working conditions after the introduc-
how adoption of municipal smoke-free laws                               tion of a smoke-free law may not match what
influenced employee turnover, a key determi-                            many workers would have chosen in the
nant of operating costs in the restaurant and                           absence of a regulation, even if the discrepan-
bar industry. We used a unique data set of em-                          cies did not appear to be large enough to drive
ployment records of a franchiser of a national                          up separation rates. Further, our analysis
restaurant chain operating 23 full-service res-                         of aggregate separation rates may mask an
taurants in the state of Arizona, a state where                         increase in separation rates for some groups
several municipalities have adopted smoke-                              of workers, such as smokers. But it is impor-
free laws.                                                              tant for business owners, who face the training
    We found a statistically significant decline                        costs associated with employee turnover, that
in the probability of separation in the initial                         the implementation of municipal smoke-free
months after a smoke-free law was imple-                                laws did not lead to an increase in aggregate
mented as well as evidence that separation                              separation rates for restaurants of the fran-
rates were lower 16-18 mo after implementa-                             chiser we studied.
tion. However, there was no consistent pat-                                These restaurants, which provide mid-price
tern of either a decline or an increase in                              meals and serve alcohol, are common
separation rates after the implementation of                            throughout the United States. Several recent
a smoke-free law. No average effect was iden-                           studies have indicated that larger restaurants
tified in the years after implementation either                         serving alcohol are the types of restaurants
for "existing" workers who were employed at                             whose profitability may be more likely to be
the restaurant at the time of implementation                            affected by smoke-free laws (Dunham and
or for "new" workers who joined the restau-                             Mariow, 2000, 2003). Findings regarding
rant after implementation. While we found                               employee separation in these restaurants are
a statistically significant decline in separation                       therefore of general interest and do not merely
rates in two quarters, the joint effect on sep-                         represent a niche segment or lightly impacted
THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER                                         359


portion of the industry. This said, it is not               Hyland, A. K., M. Cummings, and E. Nauenberg. "Anal-
known whether the same effect (or lack of                        ysis of Taxable Sales Receipts: Was New York City's
                                                                 Smoke-Free Air Act Bad for Restaurant Business?"
effect) on separation rates would be found                       Journal of Public Health Management and Practice,
in other restaurants that offer a different                      5, 1999, 14-21.
mix of services to a different customer base.               Jovanovic, B. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover."
Future research on employee separation rates                     Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1979, 972-90.
needs to focus on workers in other segments of              Law, M. R., and N. J. Wald. "Environmental Tobacco
                                                                 Smoke and Ischémie Heart Disease." Progress in
the restaurant industry.                                          Cardiovascular Diseases, 46(1), 2003, 31-38.
   Future research on separation rates may be               Meitzen, M. E. "Differences in Male and Female Job-
able to identify the effect of laws on specific                  Quitting Behavior." Journal of Labor Economics,
groups of workers, such as smokers. Such                         4, 1986, 151-67.
research also may be able to gather data on                 Mincer, J., and B. Jovanovic. Labor Mobility and Wages.
                                                                 Studies in Labor Markets. Cambridge, MA: National
additional factors that influence employee sep-                  Bureau of Economic Research, 1981.
aration, including employee education level                 Pakko, M. R. On The Economic Impact of Smoking Bans.
and family structure, or major life changes                      CRE8 Occasional Report No. 2005-2. Center for
faced by employees, such as graduation from                      Regional Economics, St. Louis, MO: Federal
                                                                 Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2005.
high school or college.
                                                            Royalty, A. "Job to Job and Job to Non-Employment
                                                                 Turnover by Gender and Education Level." Journal
                                                                 of Labor Economics, 16, 1998, 392-443.
                    REFERENCES                              Siegel, M. "Involuntary Smoking in the Restaurant Work-
                                                                 place: A Review of Employee Exposure and Health
Bartel, A. P., and G. J. Borjas. Middle-Age Job Mobility:        Effects." Journal of the American Medical Associa-
     Its Determinants and Consequences, Men in the Pre-          tion, 270, 1993, 490-3.
     Retirement Years. Philadelphia: Temple University
                                                            U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. "The
     Press, 1977.
                                                                 Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to
Corsun, D. L., C. A. Young, and C. A. Enz. "Should NYC           Tobacco Smoke." Atlanta, GA: Department of
     Restaurateurs Lighten Up? Effects of the City's             Health and Human Services, Public Health Service,
     Smoke-Free Air Act." Cornell Hotel and Restaurant           Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
     Administration Quarterly, 37(2), 1996, 8-9.                 National Center for Chronic Disease and Preven-
Dunham, J., and M. L. Mariow. "Smoking Laws and                  tion and Promotion, Office of Smoking and Health,
     Their Differential Impacts on Restaurants, Bars,            2006.
     and Taverns." Contemporary Economic Policy,            Viscusi, W. K. "A Theory of Job Shopping: A Bayesian
     18(3), 2000, 326-33.                                        Perspective." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 94,
        . "The Economic Incidence of Smoking Bans."               1980, 609-14.
     Applied Economics, 35, 2003, 1935-42.                  Wakefield, M., L. Trotter, M. Cameron, A. Woodward,
        . "The Private Market for Accommodation:                 G. lnglis, and D. Hill. "Association Between Expo-
     Determinants of Smoking Policies in Restaurants             sure to Workplace Seeondhand Smoke and
     and Bars." Eastern Economic Journal, 30, 2004,              Reported Respiratory and Sensory Symptoms:
     377-91.                                                     Cross-Sectional Study." Journal of Occupational
Glantz, S. A., and L. R. A. Smith. "The Effect of Ordi-          and Environmental Medicine, 45, 2003, 622-7.
     nances Requiring Smoke-Free Restaurants on Res-        Wells, A. J. "Lung Cancer from Passive Smoking at
     taurant Sales: A Follow-Up." American Journal of            Work." American Journal of Public Health, 88,
     Public Health, 87, 1997, 1687-93.                            1988, 1025-29.
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Smoke Free Laws And Employee Turnover

  • 1. SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER ERIC THOMPSON, ELLEN J. HAHN, GLENN BLOMQUIST, JOHN GAREN, DON MULLINEAUX, NOLA OGUNRO and MARY K. RAYENS* This study examines how smoke-free laws influence turnover among restaurant workers. The study uses a unique data set of payroll records of a franchisee of a national full-service restaurant chain operating 23 restaurants in the state of Arizona, a state where several communities have adopted smoke-free laws. Municipal smoke-free laws did not, on average, have a statistically signiflcant effect on the prob- ability of employee separation in the years after implementation. These results suggest that training costs associated with employee turnover would not rise for full-service restaurants in municipalities that adopt smoke-free laws. {JEL 118, J63) I. INTRODUCTION aggregate level of industry activity, business While health and safety regulations are costs, and labor market behavior of workers. often set at the state and federal level, many This is particularly true of the bar and restau- local jurisdictions also have the power to enact rant industries, and other recreation and workplace regulations. In particular, there is entertainment industries, since business own- a growing trend toward local regulation of ers in these industries frequently choose to workplace smoking. Today, nearly 570 local allow smoking. municipalities and 21 states plus the District Health advocates support local smoking of Columbia have enacted 100% smoke-free ordinances as a public health strategy to laws in workplaces. Enacting the first local enhance the safety of workplaces.' But like "clean indoor air" laws in 1973, Arizona led all such safety regulations, including safety reg- the way among states. These local workplace ulations at construction sites, mines, or regulations have the potential to influence the manufacturing plants, smoke-free laws have potential to introduce economic inefficiencies. *The authors gratefully acknowledge comments pro- Free from safety regulation, workers may vided by two anonymous referees and the financial assis- choose to trade workplace safety for higher tance of The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation wages or other desirable features of a job. Min- Substance Abuse Policy Research Program. imum safety standards cause some workers to Thompson: Associate Professor of Economics, Depart- accept something less than what they would ment of Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588. Phone402-472-3318, Fax 402-472- consider an optimal mix of safety, wages, 9700, E-mail ethompson2@unl.edu and other employment features (Pakko, Halm: Professor, School of Nursing, University of Ken- 2005). One implication is that the introduction tucky, Lexington, K.Y 40506. Phone 859-257-2358, Fax 402-323-1057, E-mail ejhahnOO@uky.edu of a smoke-free law may cause some workers to Blomquist: Pollard Endowed Professor of Economics, leave employment at bar and restaurant busi- Department of Economics, University of Kentucky, nesses in municipalities with smoke-free laws, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859-257-3924, Fax although the introduction also may encourage 402-323-1920, E-mail gcblom@uky.edu Garen: Gatton Endowed Professor of Economics, Depart- other workers to seek employment. ment of Economics University of Kentucky, Lexington, Recent literature has examined the influ- KY 40506. Phone 859-257-3581, Fax 402-323-1920, ence of smoke-free laws in terms of customer E-mail jgaren@uky.edu MuUineaux: duPont Endowed Chair in Banking and Pro- fessor of Finance, Department of Finance, University 1. Bar and restaurant workers' exposure to second- of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 402-257- hand tobacco smoke is 1.5-4.4 times greater than that 2890, Fax 402-257-9688, E-mail mullinea@uky.edu of individuals living with smokers (Siegel, 1993). For evi- Ogunro: Graduate Student in Economics, University of dence that passive smoking causes coronary heart disease, Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859-552- lung cancer, and various respiratory ailments (see U.S. 9005, Fax 402-323-1920, E-mail nogun2@uky.edu Department of Health and Human Services, 2006; Law Rayens: Associate Professor, School of Nursing, Univer- and Wald, 2003; Wells, 1998). Passive smokers also expe- sity of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506. Phone 859- rience other health conditions including eye irritation, 323-1670, Fax 402-323-1057, E-mail mkrayens@ headaches, nasal symptoms, coughs, wheezing, and uky.edu hoarseness (Wakefield et al., 2003). 351 Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1074-3529) Vol. 26, No. 3, July 2008, 351-359 doi: 10.1111/j. 1465-7287.2007.00091 .x Online Early publication January 16, 2008 © 2008 Western Economic Association International
  • 2. 352 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY demand to patronize businesses in the hospi- staff. The match between new workers and tality industry (Corsun, Young, and Enz, 1996; their employers develop in the smoke-free Glantz and Smith, 1997; Hyland, Cummings, environment, so that the smoke-free law does and Nauenberg, 1999; Pakko, 2005). Other not represent any shock to the match. The recent literature has measured private market employee separation rate in the long run could provision of smoke-free environments to be higher, lower, or no different for restau- accommodate consumer preferences and the rants in municipalities with smoke-free laws. differential effect of smoke-free laws on res- In this study we use a panel data set with taurant and bar profitability (Dunham and treatment and control groups to examine Mariow, 2000, 2003, 2004). The purpose of the influence of local smoke-free laws on this study was to examine how laws influence employee separations. A logistic regression employee turnover, which is a key determi- of employee separation was estimated using nant of operating cost for the industry. We data on employees of a franchiser of a national examine whether the likelihood of employee restaurant chain operating in the state of separation from a job at a full-service restau- Arizona over a 5-yr period. The chain operates rant is influenced by the introduction or full-service restaurants serving alcohol, with presence of a local smoke-free law, after con- seating for an average of 190 customers, trolling for other factors that influence and offering mid-price meals. Dunham and employee separation. Mariow (2000, 2003) note that the introduc- tion of smoke-free laws has a varying impact II. METHODOLOGY on different segments of the restaurant indus- try. Profitability is most impacted in restau- The likelihood of a worker separating from rants with more seating, a larger share of their job falls with tenure as workers learn sales from alcohol, and a larger share of seat- more about the rewards and conditions of ing in the smoking-allowed section but is not a particular job and employers learn more impacted by whether a restaurant is part of about the performance of workers (Bartel a chain or independent.^ The restaurants we and Borjas, 1977; Jovanovic, 1979; Viscusi, examine, with large seating capacity and alco- 1980). Personal characteristics such as educa- hol sales, have the characteristics of restau- tion, age, health, and sex further influence the rants likely to be impacted by smoke-free laws. likelihood of separation (Bartel and Borjas, The panel data set included payroll records 1977; Meitzen, Í986; Mincer and Jovanovic, available for 2-wk pay periods for employees 1981; Royalty, 1998). of 23 Arizona restaurants from April 1999 to The introduction of a smoke-free law also April 2004 (see Table 1), as well as employee could influence the match between an existing characteristics such as age, race, gender, and worker and their job. The law may represent occupation. Each 2-wk employee pay period a shock to the "match" for existing workers, served as a single observation. The restaurant leading to an increase in separation rates. franchiser allowed smoking at its restaurants While many workers may prefer to work in a smoke-free workplace, other job attributes in the absence of a municipal smoke-free law. such as earnings from tips also may change Ofthe 23 restaurants, 12 were located in munic- as a municipal smoke-free law is implemented. ipalities with a smoke-free law as of 2004. Pres- Dunham and Mariow (2003) note that restau- ence of a smoke-free ordinance was obtained rants negatively impacted by smoke-free laws from the Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights are more likely to increase job responsibilities database (www.no-smoke.org) and confirmed for their workers. Some existing workers may with the company management. flnd the new bundle of job attributes inferior Three of the restaurants opened smoke free to the previous arrangement. This is particu- (one in Tucson, one in Mesa, and one in Gil- larly true of any group workers, such as work- bert). The smoke-free ordinance in Mesa also ers who smoke, who may have found was implemented before April 1999, so that a smoking-allowed work environment to be our database for the Mesa restaurants only an amenity. contained observations for workers in the The long-run effects of smoke-free laws on period after the smoke-free law was in effect. employee separation rates are less clear, how- 2. Dunham and Mariow (2004) report that chain res- ever. Over the long run, there is turnover in taurants offered more space for nonsmoking seating.
  • 3. THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER 353 TABLE 1 Statistics for Arizona Restaurants Date When Community Location Opened County went Smoke Free Restaurants in communities with smoke-free laws as of 2004 Mesa, Arizona (1) December 1992 Maricopa July 1996 Mesa, Arizona (2) November 1992 Maricopa July 1996 Mesa, Arizona (3) June 1993 Maricopa July 1996 Mesa, Arizona (4) November 1998 Maricopa July 1996 Tempe, Arizona (1) June 1994 Maricopa May 2000 Tempe, Arizona (2) April 1997 Maricopa May 2000 Chandler, Arizona November 1997 Maricopa October 2003 Gilbert, Arizona May 2002 Maricopa May 2001 Tucson, Arizona (1) September 1991 Pima October 1999 Tucson, Arizona (2) May 1994 Pima October 1999 Tucson, Arizona (3) March 1997 Pima October 1999 Tucson, Arizona (4) January 2000 Pima October 1999 Restaurants in communities without smoke-free laws as of 2004 Phoenix, Arizona (1) December 1992 Maricopa No Phoenix, Arizona (2) May 1995 Maricopa No Phoenix, Arizona (3) October 1995 Maricopa No Pheonix, Arizona (4) June 2002 Maricopa No Peoria, Arizona September 1993 Maricopa No Scottsdale, Arizona December 1994 Maricopa No Prescott, Arizona February 1996 Yavapai No Glendale, Arizona August 1996 Maricopa No Goodyear, Arizona October 2000 Maricopa No Surprise, Arizona June 2001 Maricopa No Sierra Vista, Arizona September 2003 Cochise No Six remaining restaurants were in municipali- only after the restaurant's municipality imple- ties that were not smoke free in April 1999, but mented a smoke-free law.^ The control group then implemented a smoke-free law later in the analysis consisted of restaurant payroll either in October 1999 (Tucson), May 2000 records during any period when the restaurant (Tempe), or in October 2003 (Chandler). did not face a local smoke-free law, either Given the relatively short tenure of restaurant because the municipality where the restaurant workers (see Table 2), the 7 mo of preban data was located never had a smoke-free law or for workers in Tucson restaurants and 12 mo because the law was not yet in effect. There in Tempe are sufficient for preban and post- were 90,810 payroll records in the control ban comparisons of separation rates within group. restaurants. Age, gender, ethnicity, job tenure, occupa- The two treatment groups used in the anal- tion, and separation date were obtained from ysis included restaurant payroll records during company payroll system records. The payroll any period when a restaurant operated under database did not include data on other per- a local smoke-free law. Treatment Group I sonal characteristics of workers that could included 14,927 postban payroll records from influence employee separation rates, such as employees who worked at a restaurant both education level and marital status, or other before and after the municipality where the factors that could influence worker reaction restaurant was located implemented a smoke- free law. For these workers, the introduction of a smoke-free law represented a potential 3. Therefore, Treatment Group II included payroll "shock" to their work situation. Treatment records for employees ofthe three restaurants that opened smoke free, and employees of the nine restaurants in Group II included 69,966 payroll records Treatment Group I who started working there only after for employees who worked at a restaurant the restaurant became smoke free.
  • 4. 354 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY TABLE 2 job tenure squared, and personal characteris- Summary Statistics tics (age, gender, and race/ethnicity), as well as a variable indicating the presence of a smoke- Standard free law. There also was a dummy variable for Variable Mean Deviation each restaurant to control for idiosyncratic Probability of separation and tenure working conditions, and a dummy variable % separating during 4.2 20.0 for each month-year from April 1999 through the pay period April 2004 to account for season and business Tenure (d) 539 632 cycle impacts. Some employees had two Tenure squared (d) 685.343 1,603,303 employment spells at a restaurant, and each Personal characteristics spell was treated as separate members of the Gender (%) panel. A dummy variable was used to indicate Male 47.8 50.0 the second employment spell. In the logistic Female 52.2 50.0 regression, standard errors were adjusted for Age (yr) 26.1 7.0 clustering on employee-specific identification Race (%) White 71.4 45.2 numbers. Black 3.0 17.1 The second model pooled Treatment Hispanic 20.3 40.2 Group I with the control group. The third American Indian/Alaska 1.2 11.0 model pooled Treatment Group II with the Native control group. For all three models, we pres- Asian/Pacific Islander 0.1 2.9 ent coefficient estimates from the logistic Not specified 4.0 19.5 regression as well as estimates of each varia- Occupation (%) ble's marginal effect. Server 54.8 49.8 Models 1 through 3 contain a single dummy Hostess 17.1 37.6 variable indicating that an employee works at Bartender 2.0 13.9 a restaurant in a municipality covered by Kitchen 24.3 42.9 a smoke-free law during a particular pay All other occupations 1.8 13.4 period. Coefficient estimates for the dummy variable indicate that the average effect of a smoke-free law on employee turnover in to a municipal smoke-free ordinance, such as the years after the law is in effect. The models, smoking behavior. Observations were avail- however, do not capture how the effect of able for each 2-wk pay period for the entire smoke-free laws may vary over time. In partic- employment period. Separation was assumed ular, such a law may have a differential effect to occur at the date of each worker's last entry in the first few months it is in effect relative to in the payroll record. Of the approximately the longer term. It is in this initial period when 9,300 workers in the payroll database, roughly most existing workers are facing a shock to one-third were still employed with the fran- working condition in regards to secondhand chiser at the end of the data set. smoke in the workplace. In the longer run, The first model pooled observations from as there is a natural turnover in restaurant members of Treatment Group I, Treatment staff, most workers will have joined the staff Group II, and the control group. This model after the municipal smoke-free law was in examined the impact of a smoke-free law on place. The long-run effect, if any, could differ the probability of separation for all restaurant from the initial effect. employees after a smoke-free law was in effect, We tested for this possibility by developing regardless of when the workers began working an additional model. In this fourth model, we at the restaurants. A variable indicating use the full sample from the first model (both whether each employee's place of work oper- the treatment groups and the control group) ated under a smoke-free law in a particular and replace the single dummy variable indicat- pay period was assigned a value of 1 for all ing that the smoke-free law is in effect with members of either T^reatment Group I or II a set of 13 dummy variables, which indicate and a value of 0 for all members ofthe control the amount of time that had passed since group. The probability of separation for the law went into effect. The first dummy in- employees in any particular period was mod- dicates that the smoke-free law was in effect eled as a function of an employee's job tenure. for one quarter or less; the second dummy
  • 5. THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER 355 indicates that the law was in effect from 4 to In all three regressions, the probability of 6 mo (i.e., the second quarter after the law went separation fell with tenure in the job. At mean into effect). There are 12 such dummy varia- values for tenure and tenure squared, the mar- bles for the first 12 quarters the law is in effect, ginal effect of additional days of tenure and afinaldummy variable indicating that the reduced the probability of separation. Fur- law had been effect for more than 3 yr. ther, reestimates of the marginal effects at higher levels of tenure (such as tenure = III. RESULTS 2,000 d and tenure squared = 4,000,000 d) indicated that the marginal effect of additional Table 2 presents summary statistics for the days of tenure would remain negative. Thus, workers in this sample. On average, 4.2% of the relationship between the greater tenure workers separated from employment during and the probability of separation was negative a single 2-wk pay period. The average tenure even for an average tenure of more than 5 yr of workers at any time during the 5-yr period (2000 d is roughly 5.5 yr). was 539 d, which is roughly 1.5 yr. More than The probability of separation also was half of the employees were female. More than lower for workers in their second spell of 70% of workers were white, while roughly 20% employment at a restaurant in both the all were Hispanic and 3% were African Ameri- workers and the new workers regression. This can. The average age of workers was 26 yr could have occurred because workers in their (standard deviation = 7 yr). More than half second spell were more familiar with the of the workers were employed as servers, requirements of the job and managers also about one-quarter as kitchen workers, one- were more familiar with the workers. No sta- sixth as hosts, and a fraction as bartenders tistically significant difference was found in or other occupations. the existing workers regression, but this may Coefficient estimates from the logistic have simply refiected the smaller sample size regression are presented in Table 3, along with available. estimates on the marginal effect of each vari- The probability of separation was related to able on the probability of separation. The ethnicity in all three regressions. Relative to marginal effects are estimated at the mean white workers, the probability of separation value for all variables. Coefficients for individ- was lower for Hispanic workers. Gender ual month and restaurant dummies are not was not related to the probability of separa- reported for brevity but are available from tion in any ofthe three regressions. In all three the first author upon request. regressions, the probability of separation was Results for all workers in Table 3 are for lower for other occupations than for the omit- the case where Treatment Group I, Treatment ted category, kitchen workers. This makes Group II, and the control group were pooled. sense because the other occupations category The treatment group contains pay period includes managers who have longer tenure. observations for all workers at a restaurant The probability of separation also was lower operating under a smoke-free law, regardless for bartenders in two of the three regressions. of" whether they joined the restaurant before Finally, in all three regressions, no statisti- (Treatment Group I) or after (Treatment cally significant relationship was found Group II) the smoke-free law went into effect. between the presence of a smoke-free law Results for existing workers were for the and the probability of employee separation. case where Treatment Group I and the control The coefficient on the "law in effect" variable group were pooled. The treatment group con- is not statistically significant in any of the tains pay period observations for workers at regressions. This implies that there is no effect, a restaurant operating under a smoke-free on average, on the probability of separation in law but who joined the restaurant staff before the years after a smoke-free law is adopted by the law was implemented. Results for new a municipality. This finding, however, does workers were for the case when Treatment not preclude an effect in the initial periods Group II and the control group were pooled. after the smoke-free law is adopted when The treatment group contains pay period the law provides an initial shock to the work- observations for workers who joined the res- ing conditions of existing restaurant workers. taurant staff only after the smoke-free law For example, there could be an initial increase was in effect. in separation rates for existing workers after
  • 6. 356 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY 00 vo (N ON * . 1 .0006 C» o NO o i .002 001 .011 003 lo 000 005 000 003 009 000 o 8 o o o o o o o o o o o o o 1 1 1 I r- oo ON r^ (N o (N o m (N S o p p p d o 8 8 8 p p d d d d d d d d (N — ON o p O 2 d d o I I o O o S -H o p vi p — ^r- (N I— Ö Ö - ^ C J Ö Ö Ö Ö Ö Ö Ö O Ö ( N Ö Ö Ö C N Ö O O Ö I I I rnÖÖ '7 II I I H-S _C3 s H 1 O NO O p •* p -^ — — - ^ O O O O O Í N o o o o o m o — o d d d — o -: oI I ^ d o II I "^ — I I —' m I I •o o 8 í I c :ca ce Ul p s s o < •T3 les •T3 0) c c C AU 8 o ISO w ca u. S3 .5 < ca a:
  • 7. THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER 357 S the law is implemented, but several years later, the long-run separation rate (for workers who orl « joined the restaurant after the law was imple- 0» o mented) may be lower in municipalities with Ö 1 smoke-free laws. The effect of the smoke-free law on separation rates varies through time, but the average effect is zero. f To test this possibility, we estimated a fourth regression, where the "law in effect" rkei 1 u o * variable from the all workers regression was * e (N o replaced with 13 dummy variables indicating tin 'I s Ö the length of time that a municipal smoke-free .a X 1 law had been in effect. Joint significance tests indicated that the coefficients on these 13 dummy variables were not jointly different from zero. This suggests that there was no sig- nificant effect on separation rates through 1 * time, just as no average effect was identified 231 in Table 3. o o Coefficients for several individual dummy 1 variables were significant, however. In Figure 1, we present the individual estimates from this regression for these 13 dummy variables. In par- ticular, we show the estimated marginal effect orlkers for each of the 12 quarterly dummy variables and the 13th variable indicating that the 160,' 1.200 .041 O) 9.13 hJ .S smoke-free law had been effect for more than Z 1 1 3yr. HO There is a statistically significant decline in the separation rate for workers in first quarter after the smoke-free law is implemented.'* In ters other words, workers are less likely to separate B ,a 2 o * from their job in the first few months the law u !Ç was in effect. Point estimates remain negative oei o' m o q O throughout thefirsteight quarters that the law isti U Ö 1 1 was in effect, and the negative marginal effect is statistically significant in the sixth quarter. i Point estimates alternate between negative te and positive values beginning with the ninth s: a quarter and are not statistically significant. These quarterly results do not show a consis- Ail Work .088* .97 tent impact on separation rates. oo 1 1 Over the longer run, we did not find evi- dence of a relationship between municipal 1 smoke-free laws and separation rates. There was no statistically significant relationship between the introduction of municipal smoke- free laws and the probability of separation C beyond 18 mo. O cupat 4. We also examined whether the probability of sepa- ration changed in the quarter before the local smoking ban was implemented, as workers anticipated the coming 3 e o change. We did not find a statistically significant change ial k- tu .G 'S in the chances of separation in the quarter before imple- > Ô mentation.
  • 8. 358 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY FIGURE 1 aration rates across all quarters was not sig- Marginal Effect of the Presence of a Local nificantly different from zero. Further, there Smoke-Free Law on the Probability of was no evidence of a relationship between Separation smoke-free laws and employee separation beyond 18 mo. 0.004 Taken together, these results suggest that municipal smoke-free laws did not change o £ 0.002 0 • ' ' • / /x / • V the separation rate for workers in the long run. The laws also did not induce an increase ñ -0.002 / ^ / in employee turnover in the initial period after •g) -0.004 implementation by disrupting the match / g -0.006 / between existing full-service restaurant work- -0.008 V ers and their employers. The latter result implies that in the quarters after the imple- mentation of a smoke-free law, the change in bundle of working conditions—which could Quarters Since Law In Effect include changes in earnings from tips as well as Note: ( • ) indicates statistical significance at the 10% the change in workplace smoking—did not confidence level. increase the rate of separation among existing workers overall. IV. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS By contrast, the limited evidence we did find of a change in separation rates suggests Previous economic research on smoke-free that restaurant workers are for a period more laws has focused on how these laws affect likely to remain in their job after the imple- demand for businesses in the hospitality indus- mentation of a smoke-free law, perhaps exper- try or on the differential effect of smoke-free imenting with the new working conditions. laws on restaurant and bar profitability. The These aggregate results do not imply that current study is an effort to examine how municipal smoke-free laws have no impact smoke-free laws influence the behavior of res- on the welfare of restaurant workers. The taurant workers. In particular, we examined mix of working conditions after the introduc- how adoption of municipal smoke-free laws tion of a smoke-free law may not match what influenced employee turnover, a key determi- many workers would have chosen in the nant of operating costs in the restaurant and absence of a regulation, even if the discrepan- bar industry. We used a unique data set of em- cies did not appear to be large enough to drive ployment records of a franchiser of a national up separation rates. Further, our analysis restaurant chain operating 23 full-service res- of aggregate separation rates may mask an taurants in the state of Arizona, a state where increase in separation rates for some groups several municipalities have adopted smoke- of workers, such as smokers. But it is impor- free laws. tant for business owners, who face the training We found a statistically significant decline costs associated with employee turnover, that in the probability of separation in the initial the implementation of municipal smoke-free months after a smoke-free law was imple- laws did not lead to an increase in aggregate mented as well as evidence that separation separation rates for restaurants of the fran- rates were lower 16-18 mo after implementa- chiser we studied. tion. However, there was no consistent pat- These restaurants, which provide mid-price tern of either a decline or an increase in meals and serve alcohol, are common separation rates after the implementation of throughout the United States. Several recent a smoke-free law. No average effect was iden- studies have indicated that larger restaurants tified in the years after implementation either serving alcohol are the types of restaurants for "existing" workers who were employed at whose profitability may be more likely to be the restaurant at the time of implementation affected by smoke-free laws (Dunham and or for "new" workers who joined the restau- Mariow, 2000, 2003). Findings regarding rant after implementation. While we found employee separation in these restaurants are a statistically significant decline in separation therefore of general interest and do not merely rates in two quarters, the joint effect on sep- represent a niche segment or lightly impacted
  • 9. THOMPSON ET AL.: SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER 359 portion of the industry. This said, it is not Hyland, A. K., M. Cummings, and E. Nauenberg. "Anal- known whether the same effect (or lack of ysis of Taxable Sales Receipts: Was New York City's Smoke-Free Air Act Bad for Restaurant Business?" effect) on separation rates would be found Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, in other restaurants that offer a different 5, 1999, 14-21. mix of services to a different customer base. Jovanovic, B. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover." Future research on employee separation rates Journal of Political Economy, 87, 1979, 972-90. needs to focus on workers in other segments of Law, M. R., and N. J. Wald. "Environmental Tobacco Smoke and Ischémie Heart Disease." Progress in the restaurant industry. Cardiovascular Diseases, 46(1), 2003, 31-38. Future research on separation rates may be Meitzen, M. E. "Differences in Male and Female Job- able to identify the effect of laws on specific Quitting Behavior." Journal of Labor Economics, groups of workers, such as smokers. Such 4, 1986, 151-67. research also may be able to gather data on Mincer, J., and B. Jovanovic. Labor Mobility and Wages. Studies in Labor Markets. Cambridge, MA: National additional factors that influence employee sep- Bureau of Economic Research, 1981. aration, including employee education level Pakko, M. R. On The Economic Impact of Smoking Bans. and family structure, or major life changes CRE8 Occasional Report No. 2005-2. Center for faced by employees, such as graduation from Regional Economics, St. Louis, MO: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2005. high school or college. Royalty, A. "Job to Job and Job to Non-Employment Turnover by Gender and Education Level." Journal of Labor Economics, 16, 1998, 392-443. REFERENCES Siegel, M. "Involuntary Smoking in the Restaurant Work- place: A Review of Employee Exposure and Health Bartel, A. P., and G. J. Borjas. Middle-Age Job Mobility: Effects." Journal of the American Medical Associa- Its Determinants and Consequences, Men in the Pre- tion, 270, 1993, 490-3. Retirement Years. Philadelphia: Temple University U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. "The Press, 1977. Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to Corsun, D. L., C. A. Young, and C. A. Enz. "Should NYC Tobacco Smoke." Atlanta, GA: Department of Restaurateurs Lighten Up? Effects of the City's Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Smoke-Free Air Act." Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Administration Quarterly, 37(2), 1996, 8-9. National Center for Chronic Disease and Preven- Dunham, J., and M. L. Mariow. "Smoking Laws and tion and Promotion, Office of Smoking and Health, Their Differential Impacts on Restaurants, Bars, 2006. and Taverns." Contemporary Economic Policy, Viscusi, W. K. "A Theory of Job Shopping: A Bayesian 18(3), 2000, 326-33. Perspective." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 94, . "The Economic Incidence of Smoking Bans." 1980, 609-14. Applied Economics, 35, 2003, 1935-42. Wakefield, M., L. Trotter, M. Cameron, A. Woodward, . "The Private Market for Accommodation: G. lnglis, and D. Hill. "Association Between Expo- Determinants of Smoking Policies in Restaurants sure to Workplace Seeondhand Smoke and and Bars." Eastern Economic Journal, 30, 2004, Reported Respiratory and Sensory Symptoms: 377-91. Cross-Sectional Study." Journal of Occupational Glantz, S. A., and L. R. A. Smith. "The Effect of Ordi- and Environmental Medicine, 45, 2003, 622-7. nances Requiring Smoke-Free Restaurants on Res- Wells, A. J. "Lung Cancer from Passive Smoking at taurant Sales: A Follow-Up." American Journal of Work." American Journal of Public Health, 88, Public Health, 87, 1997, 1687-93. 1988, 1025-29.