Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia -kurssi: Investtechin toimitusjohtaja Espen Grönstad

1. 1
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
ESPEN GRØNSTAD
CEO – INVESTTECH
WWW.INVESTTECH.COM
Copyright © 2013-11-20
• Norwegian company established 1997
• Based on scientific research
• Solid documented results
• Independent and objective analyses
• Subscriptions:
INVESTOR
Investtech AS
Stock analysis
3
• Fundamental analyis:
Security!
• Technical analysis:
Timing!

2. 2
4
Technical analysis
Supply
Demand
Price
All relevant information that the investors as a goup
possess, is always represented in the stock price.
Volume
Depression
Skepticism
Optimism
Greed
Denial
Pessimism
Fear
Depression
Greed
Market psychology
2006 2007 2008
“It's not whether you're right or wrong that's
important, but how much money you make
when you're right, and how much you lose
when you're wrong”
- George Soros .
6
Mindset

3. 3
7
Technology
8
Mindset
99
Trends
Rising trends
Neutral trends
Falling trends

4. 4
Trends
1-6 quarters6 yearsLong term
1-6 months8 monthsMedium term
1-6 weeks5 monthsShort term
Investment horizonChartTime horizon
11
Signal from Trends
?
12
Signal from Trends
Average price development five days
before trend signal and one year after
trend signal for Norwegian stocks in the
period 1996-2009.
20,0%
12,3% Index
5,2%
Buy signal
Sell signal

5. 5
Trends – help
Support and Resistance
Support
Resistance
Resistance
Support
Support and Resistance

6. 6
Support and Resistance
17
17
SKEPTIC
ENVIOUS
GREED
BUY
INVINCIBLE
FRUSTRATED
PANIC INDIFFERENT
Never again
HAPPY
SKEPTIC
BUY!
Support and Resistance
Formations
Rectangle
Double top/bottom
Head and shoulders
67%

7. 7
19
Top formation
Oslo Børs 14. January 2008
2020 20
Bottom formations
OMX Stockholm 30 - 30 April 2009
21
The theory says that the price will reach the objective within L days.
• How often does this happen?
• Can this be used in a trading strategy?
Investtech – Research report
Results:

8. 8
Investtech – Research report
Success pecentage
after one formation length (1L)‫‏‬
1,088 rectangles identified on the Oslo exchange 1996-2008.
Average: 13.4 % height, 98 days length
23
Success percentage after one formation length (1L)‫‏‬
790 buy signals identified on the Dutch exchange 1996-2004.
Average height 13 %, length 107 days.
Investtech – Research report
Buy signals from REC-formation
24
Investtech –Research report
Buy signals from REC-formations
Strategy Hold Return Ret. adj. Ann. ret. Ann. ret. adj.
Sell at objective 64d 4.3% 1.8% 17.2% 7.1%
Hold L days 96d 12.5% 10.0% 34.8% 27.4%
Hold 2L days 192d 20.6% 18.2% 26.9% 23.6%
Reference index 5.9%
Conclusion: Based on the results above and not including any risk
differences, it appears that investments based on buy signals from
rectangle formations give significant excess return compared to
investment in the stock exchange reference index.
The best strategy seems to be to buy immediately after the buy
signal and to sell after a period of time equal to the duration of
the formation.

9. 9
25
Formations
26
Volume
• CONFIRMS OR WEAKENS TREND DIRECTION,
BREAKS THROUGH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE,
AND SIGNALS FROM FORMATIONS
• INDICATES COMING TREND
BREAKS/SIGNALS
• TRUST
• UNDERESTIMATED AS TECHNICAL INDICATOR
Volume
Negative volume Positive volume

10. 10
28
Volume
Increasing volume on
falling prices warns of
a potential trend
break
Decreasing volume
in trend direction
warns of a potential
trend break
Volume
Technical analysis
Positive trend
Buy signal from
formation
support
Near support

11. 11
Technical analysis
Medium
32
www.investtech.com