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CENTER FOR MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY

               2ND MYANMAR INVESTMENT SUMMIT




FINANCIAL AND BANKING REFORMS IN MYANMAR




             YANGON, UNION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MYANMAR
                         OCTOBER 17, 2012
 10/8/2012                                              1
FINANCIAL AND BANKING REFORMS IN MYANMAR




                           Presented by

                           Naw Eh Hpaw
                           Deputy Director General
                           Central Bank of Myanmar


10/8/2012                                              2
Myanmar




Myanmar is situated in South East Asia.
An area of 676,577 sq km with a coast line of 2,832 km and the
Estimated Population is about 59.13 million.
The terrain ranges from the arid plains to cool, sprawling
 hills, snow-capped mountains, white-sand beaches, lush
 farmland, hidden valleys and thick virgin forest.
   10/8/2012                                               3
Geographical Proximity   and
   Strategic Location
  Demographic Bonus
  On the Track for Economic
   Recovery and Development

10/8/2012                     4
Macroeconomic Indicator
The growth rate of the real GDP
       5.3 % in FY 2011/12 and projected at
       6.25% in FY 2012/13
Total exports by 28.1 % to US $ 8.42 billion
Inflation declined to 4 % in FY 2011/12 and is
 projected to 5.75 % in FY 2012/13
 The national poverty incidence
       fallen from 32 % to 26 %
       four million people escaped from       poverty


10/8/2012                                                5
Macroeconomic Policy Priority
It is said that A historic opportunity to jump-
  start the development process and to boost the
  living standards but …….A long way to go
The government has adopted appropriate
  policies and plans in the areas which call for top
  priority
      The five-year short-term plan starting from
       FY 2011/12 to FY 2015/16
      Modernization of the financial system
            Monetary Policy
            Fiscal Policy
10/8/2012                                          6
Liberalization in the Financial Sector
CBM encouraged the establishment of the four
 new private banks as well as the activities of the
 existing private commercial banks

19 domestic private banks with more than 300
 branches all over the country and all the banks
 are in full swing now

Reintroduced an interbank foreign exchange
 market although it has been about 50 years
 since this market was last allowed to exist
10/8/2012                                         7
Liberalization in the Financial Sector
                   ( Continued )
Local private banks have been allowed to
     perform both at home and abroad
          The remittance of currency from Myanmar
          citizens   working     overseas    becomes
          much easier and more reliable than before
Upgrading the payment system and introduction
     of online banking system
Unifying the exchange rates while easing the
     exchange-rate restrictions on current payments
     and transfers
10/8/2012                                           8
A well-defined legal framework
Amendments to the existing laws
       Central Bank of Myanmar Law 1990
       Financial Institutions of Myanmar Law 1990,

All these amended laws and regulations
 concerned are to be enacted by the parliament
The Foreign Exchange Management Law was
 enacted by the Parliament on August 10, 2012
Establishment of foreign exchange business and
 also the realistic managed float exchange rate

10/8/2012                                             9
Monetary policy
 CBM has implemented a prudent monetary
  policy framework
 CBM is to be given the full operational
  autonomy
 Interest rate policy
       Reduced the central bank discount rate from 12 % to
        10 % starting since January 1, 2012.
       Moderated the interest rates for Government Treasury
        bonds
       An incentive for the purchases of treasury bonds,
        which is the essential to phase out deficit monetization
        and to reduce inflation further
10/8/2012                                                     10
Fiscal Policy
• Reduce the unproductive expenditure but also
  prioritize the policy toward social responsibility
  such as education, health and social protection
• Fiscal decentralization process and sub-national
  budgets was first separated from the Union
  budget
• Appropriate reforms to tax policy and tax
  administration
• Fiscal deficit was    4.8 %      in FY 2011/12
  and is also projected at 3.8 % for FY 2012/13

10/8/2012                                         11
Threats and Challenges
1)          Special Interest Groups
2)          Imbalance in the Community
3)          Transparency, Accountability and
            Reliability




10/8/2012                                      12
Economic Outlook
• Modernizing Myanmar’s economy has been looked
  upon as a process of removing impediments to
  growth
• By encouraging all inclusive political process as well
  as enabling economic environment
• Reassuring the financial system development and
  liberalizing trade and foreign direct investment
  further
• Delivering the expectations with sustainable
  development by consolidating the macroeconomic
  stability measures such as the exchange rate
  unification scheme, the attempt to fiscal discipline
  and a series of liberalizing policies.
10/8/2012                                             13
10/8/2012   14
10/8/2012   15
Inflation




GDP (FY 2011-12)        US$ 54.03 billion (MMK 45,928,000 million )
GDP (PPP)               US$ 82.72 billion (MMK 45,928,000 million )
10/8/2012                                                             16
10/8/2012   17
% per annum




                                                                                   10
                                                                                             30
                                                                                                  40
                                                                                                               60
                                                                                                                      70




                                                                         -10
                                                                                        20
                                                                                                       50




                                                                               0




10/8/2012
                                                              2000 Jan
                                                              2000 Jul
                                                              2001 Jan
                                                              2001 Jul
                                                              2002 Jan
                                                              2002 Jul
                                                              2003 Jan
                                                              2003 Jul
                                                              2004 Jan
                                                              2004 Jul
                                                              2005 Jan
                                                              2005 Jul
                                                              2006 Jan
                                                              2006 Jul



            Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics
                                                              2007 Jan
                                                              2007 Jul
                                                              2008 Jan
                                                              2008 Jul
                                                              2009 Jan
                                                                                                   Spread




                                                              2009 Jul
                                                                                                   Deposit Rate
                                                                                                   Lending Rate




                                                              2010 Jan
                                                              2010 Jul
                                                                                                                              Trends of Interest Rates in Myanmar:




                                                              2011 Jan
                                                                                                   Consumer Price Index




                                                              2011 Jul
                                                                                                                           Spread Reduced to 3% from 5% in Sep 2011




18
Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 1991-2001)
        Fiscal Year   Export    Imports   Trade Balance
            1991-92   430.6     842.3        -411.7
            1992-93   590.7     1,010.2      -419.5
            1993-94   695.6     1,301.7      -606.1
            1994-95   917.4     1,487.8      -570.4
            1995-96   934.4     1,830.8      -896.4
            1996-97   929.9     1,945.8     -1,015.9
            1997-98   1,010.8   2,160.4     -1,149.6
            1998-99   1,113.1   2,431.4     -1,318.3
            1999-00   1,353.4   2,365.7     -1,012.3
            2000-01   1,838.2   2,064.6      -226.4
            2001-02   2,484.8   2,304.4      180.4
10/8/2012                                                 19
Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 2002-2010)
       Fiscal Year   Export    Imports   Trade Balance

        2002-03      2,727.5   2,101.5      626.0

        2003-04      2,780.8   1,998.7      782.1

        2004-05      2,902.4   1,805.0      1,097.4

        2005-06      3,531.1   1,815.1      1,716.0

        2006-07      5,202.7   2,687.6      2,515.1

        2007-08      6,363.4   3,076.3      3,287.1

        2008-09      6,735.8   4,089.0      2,646.8

        2009-10      7,568.6   4,186.3      3,382.3

        2010-11      8,856.0   6,403.7      2,452.3
10/8/2012                                                20
Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 2002-2010)
                        (Kyats in million )
10,000.0

  9,000.0

  8,000.0

  7,000.0

  6,000.0

  5,000.0                                              Export
  4,000.0                                              Imports
                                                       Trade Balance
  3,000.0

  2,000.0

  1,000.0

       0.0


10/8/2012                                                        21
• System of National Accounts




10/8/2012                       22
10/8/2012   23
အသက် (၁၅) နှစ်နှင်အထက် လုပ်သားအင်အားပါဝင်မှုနှုန်း
                                 ့
                          (၁၉၇၃ ခုနှစ- ၂၀၀၇ ခုနှစ)
                                     ်           ်
    ရာခိုင်နှုန်း
 90.0

 80.0

 70.0                                                                         ၁၉၇၃
 60.0
                                                                              ၁၉၈၃
 50.0

 40.0
                                                                              ၂၀၀၁

 30.0                                                                         ၂၀၀၇
 20.0

 10.0

  0.0
            ၁၅-၁၉ ၂၀-၂၄ ၂၅-၂၉ ၃၀-၃၄ ၃၅-၃၉ ၄၀-၄၄ ၄၅-၄၉ ၅၀-၅၄ ၅၅-၅၉ ၆၀-၆၄ ၆၅+

                                         အသက်
10/8/2012                                                                        24
70


60   62.8     64     63.9
                              58.2
50


40


30                                                                                         32.5
                                                                                   27.2
                                                                  24.3   24.9
20


10                                   12.9
                                            11.1
                                                     8.9   9.3

0
     1973    1983    2001     2007   1973   1983    2001   2007   1973   1983     2001     2007
            လယ်ယာသားငါးကဏ္ဍ                  စက်မှုကဏ္ဍ                  ဝန်ဆောင်မှုကဏ္ဍ




10/8/2012                                                                                         25
 ၂၀၁၁ ခုနစ်၊ ဇူလငလကုန်အထိ နိုင်ငံပပါင်း(၃၁) နိုင်ငံမှလုပငန်း စုစပပါင်း
                  ှ       ို ်                              ်      ု
  (၄၅၄)ခု ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှလျှက်ရိှရာ အပမရိကန် ပေါ်လာ သန်းပပါင်း
                               ံ
  (၃၆,၀၇၁.၈၈၈) ရှပါ သည်။ိ
 ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှံမှုကဏ္ဍ(၁၂)ခုတင် လျှပစစ်ကဏ္ဍမှ ၄၀.၂၈%၊ ပရနံနှင့်သဘာဝ
                                   ွ          ်
  ဓါတ်ပငွ့ကဏ္ဍမှ ၃၈.၃%၊ သတ္တ ုကဏ္ဍ မှ ၇.၇၅% တို့ှဖင့် ဦးပောင်လျှက် ရှိပါ
  သည်။
 နိုငငံအပနဖင့် တရုတ်ှပည်သ့ူ သမ္မတနိုငငံသည် ၂၆.၆၂% ှဖင့် ပထမ၊ ထိုင်း
       ်        ှ                                    ်
  နိုင်ငံသည် ၂၆.၅၃%ှဖင့် ေုတိယ၊ ပောင်ပကာင်သည် ၁၇.၄၉% ှဖင့် တတိယ
  ပနရာတွငရပါသည်။
               ် ှိ
 အာေီယနုငငံများမှ
             ံ ိ ်               ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှမပမာဏမှာ
                                                ံ ှု     အပမရိကန်ပေါ်လာ
  သန်းပပါင်း (၁၂၇၇၅.၆၅၆) ရှပါသည်။    ိ



10/8/2012                                                             26

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Myanmar Banking Reforms Financial Sector Liberalization

  • 1. CENTER FOR MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY 2ND MYANMAR INVESTMENT SUMMIT FINANCIAL AND BANKING REFORMS IN MYANMAR YANGON, UNION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MYANMAR OCTOBER 17, 2012 10/8/2012 1
  • 2. FINANCIAL AND BANKING REFORMS IN MYANMAR Presented by Naw Eh Hpaw Deputy Director General Central Bank of Myanmar 10/8/2012 2
  • 3. Myanmar Myanmar is situated in South East Asia. An area of 676,577 sq km with a coast line of 2,832 km and the Estimated Population is about 59.13 million. The terrain ranges from the arid plains to cool, sprawling hills, snow-capped mountains, white-sand beaches, lush farmland, hidden valleys and thick virgin forest. 10/8/2012 3
  • 4. Geographical Proximity and Strategic Location Demographic Bonus On the Track for Economic Recovery and Development 10/8/2012 4
  • 5. Macroeconomic Indicator The growth rate of the real GDP  5.3 % in FY 2011/12 and projected at  6.25% in FY 2012/13 Total exports by 28.1 % to US $ 8.42 billion Inflation declined to 4 % in FY 2011/12 and is projected to 5.75 % in FY 2012/13  The national poverty incidence  fallen from 32 % to 26 %  four million people escaped from poverty 10/8/2012 5
  • 6. Macroeconomic Policy Priority It is said that A historic opportunity to jump- start the development process and to boost the living standards but …….A long way to go The government has adopted appropriate policies and plans in the areas which call for top priority  The five-year short-term plan starting from FY 2011/12 to FY 2015/16  Modernization of the financial system  Monetary Policy  Fiscal Policy 10/8/2012 6
  • 7. Liberalization in the Financial Sector CBM encouraged the establishment of the four new private banks as well as the activities of the existing private commercial banks 19 domestic private banks with more than 300 branches all over the country and all the banks are in full swing now Reintroduced an interbank foreign exchange market although it has been about 50 years since this market was last allowed to exist 10/8/2012 7
  • 8. Liberalization in the Financial Sector ( Continued ) Local private banks have been allowed to perform both at home and abroad The remittance of currency from Myanmar citizens working overseas becomes much easier and more reliable than before Upgrading the payment system and introduction of online banking system Unifying the exchange rates while easing the exchange-rate restrictions on current payments and transfers 10/8/2012 8
  • 9. A well-defined legal framework Amendments to the existing laws  Central Bank of Myanmar Law 1990  Financial Institutions of Myanmar Law 1990, All these amended laws and regulations concerned are to be enacted by the parliament The Foreign Exchange Management Law was enacted by the Parliament on August 10, 2012 Establishment of foreign exchange business and also the realistic managed float exchange rate 10/8/2012 9
  • 10. Monetary policy CBM has implemented a prudent monetary policy framework CBM is to be given the full operational autonomy Interest rate policy Reduced the central bank discount rate from 12 % to 10 % starting since January 1, 2012. Moderated the interest rates for Government Treasury bonds An incentive for the purchases of treasury bonds, which is the essential to phase out deficit monetization and to reduce inflation further 10/8/2012 10
  • 11. Fiscal Policy • Reduce the unproductive expenditure but also prioritize the policy toward social responsibility such as education, health and social protection • Fiscal decentralization process and sub-national budgets was first separated from the Union budget • Appropriate reforms to tax policy and tax administration • Fiscal deficit was 4.8 % in FY 2011/12 and is also projected at 3.8 % for FY 2012/13 10/8/2012 11
  • 12. Threats and Challenges 1) Special Interest Groups 2) Imbalance in the Community 3) Transparency, Accountability and Reliability 10/8/2012 12
  • 13. Economic Outlook • Modernizing Myanmar’s economy has been looked upon as a process of removing impediments to growth • By encouraging all inclusive political process as well as enabling economic environment • Reassuring the financial system development and liberalizing trade and foreign direct investment further • Delivering the expectations with sustainable development by consolidating the macroeconomic stability measures such as the exchange rate unification scheme, the attempt to fiscal discipline and a series of liberalizing policies. 10/8/2012 13
  • 14. 10/8/2012 14
  • 15. 10/8/2012 15
  • 16. Inflation GDP (FY 2011-12) US$ 54.03 billion (MMK 45,928,000 million ) GDP (PPP) US$ 82.72 billion (MMK 45,928,000 million ) 10/8/2012 16
  • 17. 10/8/2012 17
  • 18. % per annum 10 30 40 60 70 -10 20 50 0 10/8/2012 2000 Jan 2000 Jul 2001 Jan 2001 Jul 2002 Jan 2002 Jul 2003 Jan 2003 Jul 2004 Jan 2004 Jul 2005 Jan 2005 Jul 2006 Jan 2006 Jul Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics 2007 Jan 2007 Jul 2008 Jan 2008 Jul 2009 Jan Spread 2009 Jul Deposit Rate Lending Rate 2010 Jan 2010 Jul Trends of Interest Rates in Myanmar: 2011 Jan Consumer Price Index 2011 Jul Spread Reduced to 3% from 5% in Sep 2011 18
  • 19. Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 1991-2001) Fiscal Year Export Imports Trade Balance 1991-92 430.6 842.3 -411.7 1992-93 590.7 1,010.2 -419.5 1993-94 695.6 1,301.7 -606.1 1994-95 917.4 1,487.8 -570.4 1995-96 934.4 1,830.8 -896.4 1996-97 929.9 1,945.8 -1,015.9 1997-98 1,010.8 2,160.4 -1,149.6 1998-99 1,113.1 2,431.4 -1,318.3 1999-00 1,353.4 2,365.7 -1,012.3 2000-01 1,838.2 2,064.6 -226.4 2001-02 2,484.8 2,304.4 180.4 10/8/2012 19
  • 20. Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 2002-2010) Fiscal Year Export Imports Trade Balance 2002-03 2,727.5 2,101.5 626.0 2003-04 2,780.8 1,998.7 782.1 2004-05 2,902.4 1,805.0 1,097.4 2005-06 3,531.1 1,815.1 1,716.0 2006-07 5,202.7 2,687.6 2,515.1 2007-08 6,363.4 3,076.3 3,287.1 2008-09 6,735.8 4,089.0 2,646.8 2009-10 7,568.6 4,186.3 3,382.3 2010-11 8,856.0 6,403.7 2,452.3 10/8/2012 20
  • 21. Trade Balance in Myanmar (FY 2002-2010) (Kyats in million ) 10,000.0 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 Export 4,000.0 Imports Trade Balance 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 10/8/2012 21
  • 22. • System of National Accounts 10/8/2012 22
  • 23. 10/8/2012 23
  • 24. အသက် (၁၅) နှစ်နှင်အထက် လုပ်သားအင်အားပါဝင်မှုနှုန်း ့ (၁၉၇၃ ခုနှစ- ၂၀၀၇ ခုနှစ) ် ် ရာခိုင်နှုန်း 90.0 80.0 70.0 ၁၉၇၃ 60.0 ၁၉၈၃ 50.0 40.0 ၂၀၀၁ 30.0 ၂၀၀၇ 20.0 10.0 0.0 ၁၅-၁၉ ၂၀-၂၄ ၂၅-၂၉ ၃၀-၃၄ ၃၅-၃၉ ၄၀-၄၄ ၄၅-၄၉ ၅၀-၅၄ ၅၅-၅၉ ၆၀-၆၄ ၆၅+ အသက် 10/8/2012 24
  • 25. 70 60 62.8 64 63.9 58.2 50 40 30 32.5 27.2 24.3 24.9 20 10 12.9 11.1 8.9 9.3 0 1973 1983 2001 2007 1973 1983 2001 2007 1973 1983 2001 2007 လယ်ယာသားငါးကဏ္ဍ စက်မှုကဏ္ဍ ဝန်ဆောင်မှုကဏ္ဍ 10/8/2012 25
  • 26.  ၂၀၁၁ ခုနစ်၊ ဇူလငလကုန်အထိ နိုင်ငံပပါင်း(၃၁) နိုင်ငံမှလုပငန်း စုစပပါင်း ှ ို ် ် ု (၄၅၄)ခု ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှလျှက်ရိှရာ အပမရိကန် ပေါ်လာ သန်းပပါင်း ံ (၃၆,၀၇၁.၈၈၈) ရှပါ သည်။ိ  ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှံမှုကဏ္ဍ(၁၂)ခုတင် လျှပစစ်ကဏ္ဍမှ ၄၀.၂၈%၊ ပရနံနှင့်သဘာဝ ွ ် ဓါတ်ပငွ့ကဏ္ဍမှ ၃၈.၃%၊ သတ္တ ုကဏ္ဍ မှ ၇.၇၅% တို့ှဖင့် ဦးပောင်လျှက် ရှိပါ သည်။  နိုငငံအပနဖင့် တရုတ်ှပည်သ့ူ သမ္မတနိုငငံသည် ၂၆.၆၂% ှဖင့် ပထမ၊ ထိုင်း ် ှ ် နိုင်ငံသည် ၂၆.၅၃%ှဖင့် ေုတိယ၊ ပောင်ပကာင်သည် ၁၇.၄၉% ှဖင့် တတိယ ပနရာတွငရပါသည်။ ် ှိ  အာေီယနုငငံများမှ ံ ိ ် ရင်းနှီးှမုပ်နှမပမာဏမှာ ံ ှု အပမရိကန်ပေါ်လာ သန်းပပါင်း (၁၂၇၇၅.၆၅၆) ရှပါသည်။ ိ 10/8/2012 26