Green Energy Key to Future

© Fraunhofer ISE
Green Energy -
the Key to the Future of our planet
Eicke R. Weber
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems
ISE
and
Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany
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© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Largest European solar energy research institute
>930 members of staff (incl. students)
Areas of business:
• Photovoltaics
• Solar Thermal Technologies
• Renewable Power Generation
• Energy-Efficient Buildings and
Technical Building Components
• Applied Optics and Functional
Surfaces
• Hydrogen Technology
10% basic financing
90% contract research
40% industry, 60% public
€ 56 M total budget (‘09)
> 10% p.a. growth rate
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Challenges of Today‘s Situation:
COP-15 is widely considered a failure, as it did
not result in binding CO2 - reduction targets.
Still, COP-15 lead to global acceptance of the
2oC target as maximum permissible warming;
more will definitely result in climate-disaster.
This means, the world cannot emit more than
750 Gt of CO2 during this century; it currently
emits about 35 Gt of CO2 per year (9.5 Gt C/a) !
Instead of waiting for politics to succeed, we
should work for the fastest possible transition
into a green energy future!
Holocene
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Price of fossil energy, example oil price
2001 2004 2007 2010
0
50
100
150
Brent Crude Oil
USD/KG
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The transformation into a green energy future requires
Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport
(e-mobility) and production
Rapid development of all renewable energies,
especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and
biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future
Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance
transport and smart users
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CO2 - free sources of energy
Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers
during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem
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Price of uranium
2001 2004 2007 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Uranium
USD/KG
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Nuclear energy – new installed power
Quelle: IAEA
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New installed power– nuclear and renewable power
Quellen: IAEA, Navigant Consulting, DEWI
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CO2 - free sources of energy
Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers
during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem
Clean coal technologies - requires carbon sequestration, unproven
technology, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental release
Wind - fluctuating production, limited number of suitable sites
Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, good sites
limited, production should be maximized
Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, production energy intensive
Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Island)
Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy source
PV: continuous price reduction through savings of scale
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Exemplary Path, global primary energy consumption
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de
Other Renewables
Oil
Coal
Gas
Nuclear Energy
Hydropower
Biomass (traditional)
Biomass (modern)
Solar Electricity (PV
und solarthermal)
Solarthermal (Heat only)
Geothermal
Wind
Year
2000 2020 2040
200
600
1000
1400
2100
EJ/a
0
10
30
40
50
20
TW
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Magnitude of Solar Energy
Each hour the sun delivers to earth the amount
of energy used by humans in a whole year
Sun radiation onto earth corresponds to
120,000 TW
Total human energy need in 2020: 20TW!
Source: G.W. Crabtree and N.S. Lewis, Physics Today, March 2007
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Annual installation of PV modules (worldwide)
Sources: 2000-2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 SolarBuzz
Annual
Module
Shipment
(Crystalline
Silicon)
MWp/a
2000 20122005 2010
15%Growth
25%Growth
2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
1,600
2,000
4,000
1,200
800
400
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
4,400
4,800
40 % CAGR
Projection (2003)Actual Shipments
2009: 6,43 GWp
2003: 600 MWp
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Technologies in the global PV-market
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
2007
Mono-Si
Thin-Film
Multi-Si
Ribbon-Si
First 20% Mono-Si
production cell (100cm²)
Renewable Energy law, GER
Residential roof program, JPN
First 20% Mono-Si lab cell (4cm²)
1990: 1/3 thin-film, c-Si, ms-Si
2007: > 90% c-Si & mc-Si!
3 GWp
Slide courtesy of G. Willeke
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High-Efficiency ISE solar cell structure for mc silicon
Thermal oxide:
Surface passivation and
high internal reflectivity
Plasma-textured surface:
Low reflection and good
„light trapping“
Laser-fired contacts
(LFC):
Low contact resistance
and high voltage
Wafer thickness: 99 µm
Efficiency: 20.3% (1 cm2)
world record for mc-Si!
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From mg-Si to ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Process
‘fluidised bed’ reactor fractional distillation
mg-Si powder
hot Si dust
exhaust (SiHCl3,
SiCL4, H2, Metall Chloride)
heating elements
HCl
quartz tube
ca. 30.000 t/a
ca. $100/kg
Alternative Technology for PV:
upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si (‚dirty silicon‘)
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Price learn-curve of crystalline Si PV-modules
10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103
d [µm] = 400 300 200 100 50
ηcell [%] = 10 15 18 20
slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity
20202010
(25%)
[€/Wp]
100
10
1
1980
1990
2000
2004
Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp]
(30%)
2007
Slide courtesy of G. Willeke
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High-efficiency ISE triple-junction solar cells
Ga0.65In0.35P
tunnel diode
Ga0.83In0.17As
tunnel diode
Ge substrate
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
ηηηη = 41.1 %
Current[A]
Voltage [mV]
2517-3-01-17
Ga0.35
In0.65
P/Ga0.83
In0.17
As/Ge
C = 454 x, T = 25 °C
(C = 1: AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²)
ISC
= 380.5 mA
VOC
= 2867 mV
FF = 87.2 %
A = 0.0509 cm²
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Realization : FLATCON® System by Concentrix
III-V based
tandem cells
Cgeo = 500x
Point focus
Fresnel lenses
Housing made
of glass
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An important advantage of large-area CPV: land use
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Thin-film CIS Solar cell structure
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Segmentation of the Efficiencies in the Solar Cell Market
1 - 5 %: Organic, Dye, Nanostructure Cells
6 - 11%: Thin film cells (a-Si, microcryst.-Si, CIS, CIGS, CdTe)
14 - 18%: mc-Si, umg-Si, simple c-Si cells
20 - 24%: High efficiency, mainly c-Si cells
36 - 41.1%: High-efficiency III/V tandem cells for concentrators with
25 - 30% module efficiency
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Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies
C ~ 500-1000
comm. demo
ηa ~ 10%-15%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 300-4000
demo
ηa ~ 14%-18%
LEC2020 ~ ?
C ~ 60-120
demo
ηa ~10%-12%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 70-90
commercial
ηa ~ 12%-14%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
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ν Predictions of different
studies
ν Expected for 2020:
ca. 20 GWp installed
Expected CSP Market Development
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
cumulatedcapacity[GWe]
Morse 2000
Pilkington
Sunlab 2001
S&L 2003
ESTIA2005
Sarrazin 2007
BMU 2006
GMI
IEASolarpaces
© Fraunhofer
ISE
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Existing and Future Solar Thermal Power Plants
about 500 MW operating, 2500 MW under construction, 9000 MW in Planning
Quelle: Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Wind onshore: $ 1 -2 / Wp, on the average 2000-2500h/a
Nuclear: $ 5-7/W, 6000-7000 operation hours/a,
+ costs of nuclear fuel, operation, final storage
CSP: $ 2 - 4 / Wp without storage, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine
$ 3 - 5 / Wp with storage,
+ costs of maintainance
Costs to build new power plants
Wind offshore: $ 3 - 4 Wp, up to 3500h/a, high maintainance costs
Photovoltaic: $ 2,50 - 3 / Wp, 800-1000h/a in Germany,
1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine regions
Source: E.R. Weber
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Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies
Electricity Costs
depend on number
of operating hours
On-shore wind
reaches parity with
fossil energies
PV at good locations
competitive with CSP
PV klein
1000
PV groß
2000
CSP
mit Speicher
2000
CSP
ohne Speicher
2000
Wind
onshore
2000
Wind
offshore
3200
Strommix
fossil
Leitszenario 2009
Medium
Number: kWhr/kWp for PV, CSP, and wind
Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)
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100% Renewable Electricity: the Energy Storage Problem
Energy harvested from the sun and wind is fluctuating in nature; this can be
partially balanced by hydro, biomass and geothermal energies
An efficient energy storage system is highly desirable; first in line is hydro, as
water pumped to elevated altitude or variable-flow dams
Current battery technologies are too expensive; an exception could be redox-
flow batteries that essentially store electric charge
Solar-generated Hydrogen combined with fuel cells might get cost-competitive
with further development
Ultimately, a global electricity grid based on HVDC lines might eliminate this
problem: The sun shines at any time of the day somewhere on the globe
Heat storage in CSP Solar Thermal Power plants is readily available
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Failure of COP-15 (Kopenhagen 2009): Negative Goal
Climate Scientists:
Earth can afford only 750 Gt of additional CO2 - emissions,
to limit global warming to 2oC
Politics:
Negotiate treaties to limit national CO2 - emissions, see COP-15
Voters (esp. in USA):
Object limits on convenience of living through CO2 emission limitations
Emerging Countries (e.g., China):
Limitations and reductions of CO2 - emissions not acceptable,
per-capita emissions are much smaller than in industrialized countries
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Better: Positive Goals: RE und EE
Regenerative Energy Goal: % RE in Electricity, Energy consumption
- 20% (Germany: 30-40%) RE in total energy by 2020
- 100% RE in electricity by 2030 seem to be possible (e.g., M. Jacobson)
Governments: these goals can be directly influenced by politics
Voters: positive Goals present a challenge (c.f., landing on the moon)
Economies: Jobs in high- und low-Technologies
Support of RE, EE: economic stimulus programs
Advantages of RE and EE Goals:
Energy - Efficiency Goal: Energy intensity of GNP in kWh/$ GNP
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Conclusion: The Green Energy Future
Our climate goals can only be achieved with more efficient energy use and
rapid introduction of renewable energies worldwide;
All sources of renewable energy should be developed. Among those,
harvesting solar electricity will be a leading technology, as solar energy is
virtually unlimited available.
Direct photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is based on semiconductor
technology; the price will follow a steep learning curve, so that solar energy will
get competitive with electricity from fossil and nuclear sources.
Electricity from solar thermal energy conversion (CSP) is cost competitive
today, and has advantages in heat storage; however, the learning curve
seems to have a smaller slope, so that PV might create lowest-cost solar
electricity.
Ultimately, the green energy market will soon be a 100s of bn-$ market,
providing millions of jobs and energy without fuel costs worldwide.
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Green Energy Key to Future

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