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CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 2011

SYRIA: ISN’T IT THE SECOND IRAQ?
                                      The author:
                              Anastasia Mikhailina

                                      The adviser:
                               Yulia Shcherbakova

                         Comprehensive School
                 №216 “Didakt”, Zarechny, Russia




             Monterey, 2011
“History repeats”

                                            Thucydides




http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A
4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Th
ucydides-bust-cutout_ROM.jpg
SAFEGUARDS



Nonproliferation
    policy                   Export
                             Control

                    Staff
                   Control
Nuclear Program




Peacef        Military
  ul
When did the Gulf War finish?


                                           1973

                                           1988

                                           1991




http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/
0401/02-hist-08.html
Can Syria repeat the history of
Iraq and develop its own secret
      Nuclear Program?
When did Syria sign the NPT?
                             1976

                             1968

                             1960




http://www.ippnw-
students.org/NPT/oped.html
The Syrian Atomic Energy
Commission
                                    The  main goal:
                                    to analyze the possibility
                                    of nuclear power plant
                                    creation
                                    The negotiations with:

                                    France
                                    Argentina
http://www.aec.org.sy/index_a.php   Russia
What state supplied Syria with a miniature source
                    reactor?


                                                 China
                                                 Russia
                                                 The USA



  http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L
  -3726884,00.html
The Syrian Nuclear Program:
3   exploration and mining units
1   uranium recovery plant
1   fuel storage facility
1   research reactor
3   research and development centers
1   waste management and reprocessing unit
1   education and training facility (at
Damascus University) [8]
D o e s S yr i a h a v e a n y
    possibility for the
development of a nuclear
          program?


  The absence of         The issue of
      uranium           military nuclear
  enrichment unit      program creation
 as the necessary            actively
  element of NW        discussed in the
    production                world
What Middle East country is in the
              confrontation with Syria?
                                                 Libya

                                                 Israel

                                                 Iraq




http://maarbolet.dreamwidth.org/
362954.html

                                   http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki
                                   /630396
SY R I A N P U B L I C O P I N I O N 2 0 07

If Israel
withdraws in full              7,90%                 Strongly favor
from the Golan         5,50%
and recognizes                                       Strongly oppose
Syrian                   6%
sovereignty                               34.60%     Somewhat favor
over the
Golan, do you                                        Somewhat
                        16%
favor or oppose                                      oppose
a peace treaty                                       Refused
between Syria
and Israel?                        30%
                                                     Don't know
[9]
WHY MAY SYRIA BE MOTIVATED TO THE NW
           PRODUCTION?


             Possible reasons


Resistance
  to the             A        An indicator
aggression     psychologica   of prestige in
 of other        l barrier      the world
  states
Does Syria possess any financial
 means for the nuclear program
        development?

   Independently             With support

• The reduction of       • Probable
  Syrian economic          investments
  growth to 1.8%[10]


• No                     • Yes
What country in the Middle East is the Syrian
ally in the nuclear sphere?


                                              The  UAE
                                              Israel

                                              Iran




http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.ph
p?storyId=12635901
What Asian country is suspected in secret
collaboration with Syria?


                                      China

                                      NorthKorea
                                      Japan




 http://pensardelado.wordpress.com/
Syria is the member
    of the IAEA



Syria has signed the
        NPT


Syria has not signed
   the Additional
      Protocol
What is the Syrian position about the
        suspected facilities?

Syria has remained silent since 2008.

 It has not produced any evidence of Al-Kibar‟s
non-nuclear purpose
the IAEA experts has not got the access to the
territory of the facilities


    The facts do not give us an opportunity to eliminate the
      connection between the Syrian units and nuclear
                           program
Will Syria repeat the history
           of Iraq?
http://theuniversalentrepreneur.tumblr.com/




                                               Time
                                                will
                                              show…
SOURCES:
1.    Ahtamzyan I.A., Bondarev V.M., Vildanov M.P. and others Nuclear Nonproliferation. Short encyclopedia. (Moscow:
      ROSSPEN, 2009)
2.    “File:Flag-map of Syria.svg “ http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Syria.svg
3.     “The great people‟s quotations” http://www.epwr.ru/quotation/txt_467_2.php
4.     http://primamedia.ru/news/show/?id=136412
5.     http://fabiosalvador.com.br/index.php?mat=238
6.     http://www.clker.com/clipart-12282.html
7.     http://chemistry.about.com/od/PrintableQuizzes/tp/Printable-Lab-Safety-Sign-Quiz.htm
8.     “Syria Profile: Nuclear Facilities.” NTI: Research Library: Country Profiles.
      http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Syria/Nuclear/facilities.html
9.     „TFT Syria Poll Report 2007” http://www.terrorfreetomorrorw.org
10.    “Middle East. Syria” CIA - The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html
11.    “Syria supports Iran in the nuclear program development” IA REGNUM 20|04|2007 http://www.regnum.ru/news/816435.html
12.   Ganor E. “How was Syria left without…?” Kontinent Media Group http://www.kontinent.org/article_rus_4b0617142b885.html
13.   http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01-
      38.jpg
14.   http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01-
      43.jpg
15.   http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01-
      04.jpg
16.    http://news.webshots.com/photo/2030653240028137981KJLOyD
17.   “The Basic Points of the IAEA report about Syria” 25/11/2008 AtomInfo.ru http://www.atominfo.ru/news/air5440.htm
18.     Albright D. and Brannan P.“ISIS Reports. Satellite Image Shows Suspected Uranium Conversion Plant in Syria” 23/02/2011
      http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-shows-suspected-uranium-conversion-plant-in-syria1/
19.    Albright D. and Brannan P.“ISIS Reports. Satellite Image Shows Syrian Site Functionally Related to Al Kibar Reactor 01/12/2010
      http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-shows-syrian-site-functionally-related-to-al-kibar-reactor/
20.   The IAEA Report by the Director General. Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic. Board
      of Governors. 25/02/2011
Thank you for
your attention!


Any   questions?

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Syria

  • 1. CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 2011 SYRIA: ISN’T IT THE SECOND IRAQ? The author: Anastasia Mikhailina The adviser: Yulia Shcherbakova Comprehensive School №216 “Didakt”, Zarechny, Russia Monterey, 2011
  • 2. “History repeats” Thucydides http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A 4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Th ucydides-bust-cutout_ROM.jpg
  • 3. SAFEGUARDS Nonproliferation policy Export Control Staff Control
  • 5. When did the Gulf War finish? 1973 1988 1991 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/ 0401/02-hist-08.html
  • 6. Can Syria repeat the history of Iraq and develop its own secret Nuclear Program?
  • 7. When did Syria sign the NPT? 1976 1968 1960 http://www.ippnw- students.org/NPT/oped.html
  • 8. The Syrian Atomic Energy Commission The main goal: to analyze the possibility of nuclear power plant creation The negotiations with: France Argentina http://www.aec.org.sy/index_a.php Russia
  • 9. What state supplied Syria with a miniature source reactor?  China  Russia  The USA http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L -3726884,00.html
  • 10. The Syrian Nuclear Program: 3 exploration and mining units 1 uranium recovery plant 1 fuel storage facility 1 research reactor 3 research and development centers 1 waste management and reprocessing unit 1 education and training facility (at Damascus University) [8]
  • 11. D o e s S yr i a h a v e a n y possibility for the development of a nuclear program? The absence of The issue of uranium military nuclear enrichment unit program creation as the necessary actively element of NW discussed in the production world
  • 12. What Middle East country is in the confrontation with Syria? Libya Israel Iraq http://maarbolet.dreamwidth.org/ 362954.html http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki /630396
  • 13. SY R I A N P U B L I C O P I N I O N 2 0 07 If Israel withdraws in full 7,90% Strongly favor from the Golan 5,50% and recognizes Strongly oppose Syrian 6% sovereignty 34.60% Somewhat favor over the Golan, do you Somewhat 16% favor or oppose oppose a peace treaty Refused between Syria and Israel? 30% Don't know [9]
  • 14. WHY MAY SYRIA BE MOTIVATED TO THE NW PRODUCTION? Possible reasons Resistance to the A An indicator aggression psychologica of prestige in of other l barrier the world states
  • 15. Does Syria possess any financial means for the nuclear program development? Independently With support • The reduction of • Probable Syrian economic investments growth to 1.8%[10] • No • Yes
  • 16. What country in the Middle East is the Syrian ally in the nuclear sphere? The UAE Israel Iran http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.ph p?storyId=12635901
  • 17. What Asian country is suspected in secret collaboration with Syria? China NorthKorea Japan http://pensardelado.wordpress.com/
  • 18. Syria is the member of the IAEA Syria has signed the NPT Syria has not signed the Additional Protocol
  • 19. What is the Syrian position about the suspected facilities? Syria has remained silent since 2008.  It has not produced any evidence of Al-Kibar‟s non-nuclear purpose the IAEA experts has not got the access to the territory of the facilities The facts do not give us an opportunity to eliminate the connection between the Syrian units and nuclear program
  • 20. Will Syria repeat the history of Iraq?
  • 22. SOURCES: 1. Ahtamzyan I.A., Bondarev V.M., Vildanov M.P. and others Nuclear Nonproliferation. Short encyclopedia. (Moscow: ROSSPEN, 2009) 2. “File:Flag-map of Syria.svg “ http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Syria.svg 3. “The great people‟s quotations” http://www.epwr.ru/quotation/txt_467_2.php 4. http://primamedia.ru/news/show/?id=136412 5. http://fabiosalvador.com.br/index.php?mat=238 6. http://www.clker.com/clipart-12282.html 7. http://chemistry.about.com/od/PrintableQuizzes/tp/Printable-Lab-Safety-Sign-Quiz.htm 8. “Syria Profile: Nuclear Facilities.” NTI: Research Library: Country Profiles. http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Syria/Nuclear/facilities.html 9. „TFT Syria Poll Report 2007” http://www.terrorfreetomorrorw.org 10. “Middle East. Syria” CIA - The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html 11. “Syria supports Iran in the nuclear program development” IA REGNUM 20|04|2007 http://www.regnum.ru/news/816435.html 12. Ganor E. “How was Syria left without…?” Kontinent Media Group http://www.kontinent.org/article_rus_4b0617142b885.html 13. http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01- 38.jpg 14. http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01- 43.jpg 15. http://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtml/jframe.html#http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2008/syria-080424-dni01- 04.jpg 16. http://news.webshots.com/photo/2030653240028137981KJLOyD 17. “The Basic Points of the IAEA report about Syria” 25/11/2008 AtomInfo.ru http://www.atominfo.ru/news/air5440.htm 18. Albright D. and Brannan P.“ISIS Reports. Satellite Image Shows Suspected Uranium Conversion Plant in Syria” 23/02/2011 http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-shows-suspected-uranium-conversion-plant-in-syria1/ 19. Albright D. and Brannan P.“ISIS Reports. Satellite Image Shows Syrian Site Functionally Related to Al Kibar Reactor 01/12/2010 http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-shows-syrian-site-functionally-related-to-al-kibar-reactor/ 20. The IAEA Report by the Director General. Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic. Board of Governors. 25/02/2011
  • 23. Thank you for your attention! Any questions?