New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
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The document discusses how IBM has remained successful over decades of technological change by maintaining connections with customers, embracing openness and business-relevant innovation, and planning financial strategies to exit commoditized businesses. It also examines theories for forecasting technological trends and identifies opportunities by targeting underserved customer needs, pursuing "good enough" solutions, and innovating in ways competitors do not.
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New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
- 1. Lecture L10 LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES
- 2. Adjacent Possible ...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself Steven Johnson
- 3. Case Study Why is IBM still alive and thriving after so long, in an industry characterised perhaps more than any other by innovation and change? Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 4. Platform Shifts Tabulating machines Electronic machines Mainframes Mini-computers PC computers Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 5. Platform Shifts Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 6. Platform Shifts “IBM is not a technology company, but a company solving business problems using technology” – George Colony Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 7. Platform Shifts Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 8. Platform Shifts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Maintain connection to customers! Less hierarchical and more open! Business relevant research! Globally integrated! Financial planning – get out of commoditized business Economist: 1100100 and counting
- 9. Innovator’s Dilemma Firms that s u c c e e d in one generation of innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by their own success and thus doomed to l o s e o u t in the next wave of innovation
- 10. Disrupting How can we take advantage of the opportunities technology change offer?
- 11. Theories of Innovations Adjacent possible Liquid network Slow hunch Serendipity Moore’s Law The Law of Accelerating Returns Technology S-Curve Kondratiev Wave Technology Adoption Life Cycle Diffusion of Innovation Disruptive Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory
- 12. Opportunity How can we use these tools to forecast how information technology is evolving?
- 14. Opportunity What technology do we have 2020?
- 15. Growth rate Storage 12M POWER Processing Power 18M Bandwidth 24M TIME
- 16. 2000 2010 iMac iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iOS 4.0 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory Screen - 614K pixels Storage - 32GB Flash Drive Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
- 17. 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple phone? 30 times faster
- 18. 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple phone? OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory Screen – 24.000K pixels Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
- 19. 2010 2020 iPhone phone? Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory Screen – 24.000K pixels Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
- 22. Global total of data generated is approching one zettabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
- 23. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10
- 24. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009
- 25. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009 FREE
- 26. Supercomputer Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
- 27. Will this be in your pocket in few years?
- 28. Discussion With 15.000 Mhz, terabytes in storage, 10+ Gbps, what new applications can you build?
- 29. Looking for Opportunities How do we spot opportunities?
- 30. “I never predict. I just look out the window and see what is visible – but not yet seen.” ! Peter Drucker
- 31. Tracking Technology Trends Establish a trend point
- 33. Tracking Technology Trends “Remove” the technology and find the value. What does this mean?
- 35. NORMAL REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 a.m. to check his work e-mail and a.m. to check messages from work, his Facebook and Twitter accounts. get news from his friends and see The two boys, Cole and Erik, start what others are recommending. The each morning with text messages, two boys, Cole and Erik, start each video games and Facebook. morning communicating with friends, playing games and getting news form their friends. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
- 37. Looking for Opportunities Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption! ! “Good-enough” can be great! ! Do what competitors won’t
- 38. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Removes barriers that constrain the ability to consume ! Overshooting customers needs ! Hidden beauty in undesirable or invisible markets
- 39. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: photography Kodak’s Brownie Camera
- 40. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: Computers Apple’s iPad
- 41. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Wealth Example: Computing The Personal Computer
- 42. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Telephony Mobile phones
- 43. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Niche movies Youtube Lego Star wars
- 44. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time Example: Auction Ebay auction
- 45. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time
- 46. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume What is the barrier for these: 1. Creating a Computer Game for mobile 2. Making an Music Album 3. Publishing a Novel 4. Health Care 5. University level education 6. Rent your house
- 47. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Make the complicated simple Don’t let the mainstream derail you Innovate, don’t force
- 48. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
- 49. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
- 50. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Nintendo Wii
- 52. Portable music players disrupted by Apple, 2001 1000 songs in you pocket!
- 53. Mobile phone, 2007 Apple reinvents the phone
- 54. “Good-enough” can be great Sustainable innovations compete on getting better ! Disruptive innovations compete on doing it d i f f e r e n t l y
- 55. “Good-enough” can be great
- 56. Do what competitors won’t Unattractive or uninteresting market ! Does not seek head-on collision with established competitors !
- 57. Do what competitors won’t Personal Computers
- 58. Do what competitors won’t CRM as a Service
- 59. Find a job to be done People don’t want to buy a drill, they need a hole
- 60. Forecasting Why is it so difficult to forecast technology trends?
- 61. Disruption and Forecasting Errors B A
- 62. Disruption and Forecasting Errors
- 64. RADAR
- 65. Trend Lines 70 Computers IBM 80 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Built-in Unix, VMS, Specialists CMP DOS 10 Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. ! Homemade Business Apps Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions ! None Languages Operating systems Software Communication Media Entertainment Services Comm. ! None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents Big players ! HCI ! IBM IBM, DEC Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Microsoft Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice
- 66. Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! 20 Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation 10 Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services Agents Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice ?
- 67. Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS 10 Invisible ! Invisible Browser Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people ! Public Everyone with many + Machines Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services 20 Agents Google, Yahoo! ! Games + Same ! APIs ! ! Software bots New players ! Touch, voice + Gestures ! !
- 68. Disrupting Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption ! “Good-enough” can be great ! Do what competitors won’t