My keynote speech from OSS2010 on the future of forges

1. The OSS Forge Ecosystem: Today and Tomorrow
Nathan Oostendorp
SourceForge | Slashdot | ThinkGeek | Ohloh | freshmeat

2. The Forge Ecosystem
What are the core functions of a Forge?
What was the OSS world like before Forges?
What does the greater ecosystem look like?
Who are the Forge types and what are their goals?
What are some of the challenges facing Forge vendors?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of using Forges?
What is in store for the future of Forges?
Confidential Geeknet, page

3. Generalized Forge Functions
Online Tools for Collaborative Software Development
• Source code control (1st order Developer collaboration)
• Documentation management (Producer -> Consumer communication)
• Issue management (Artifacts for organizing/requesting work)
• Discussion tools (Free-form communication among all players)
Archive of Software and Project Resources
• Data custodian
• Directory of projects
• Comparative Statistics
– gives signal of position in the project space
Distribution Outlet
• Safe boundary between developer and consumer
• Free hosting and bandwidth
Confidential Geeknet, page

4. The Pre-Forge OSS Environment
Usenet
• One to many communication
• File distribution
Web Servers
• Promotion, Documentation, Distribution
Source Code Control
• Collaboration with many developers
Email and Mailing Lists
• Bugs/Suggestions, User facing communication
Linux Distributions are Primary Channel
Confidential Geeknet, page

5. A Comparison of Open
Source Hosting (2006)
Confidential Geeknet, page

6. A Comparison of Open
Source Hosting (2007)
Confidential Geeknet, page

7. A Comparison of Open
Source Hosting (2008)
Confidential Geeknet, page

8. A Comparison of Open
Source Hosting (2009)
Confidential Geeknet, page

9. A Comparison of Open
Source Hosting (2010)
Confidential Geeknet, page

10. Forges in Existence per Year
Forges
24
21
18 19
14
12 12
13
8 8
6 6 6
5
4
0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
Confidential Geeknet, page

11. Trends in the Ecosystem
Forge options are increasing + Features are increasing
Consumers
• More potential value
• Higher search costs
• Higher costs for learning different platforms
Forge Vendors
• in an arms race to attract developers
• need to both keep existing projects, and get new projects
Researchers
• harder to get “the full picture” of OSS development
• much more variation in data types and communication channels
Confidential Geeknet, page

12. Forge Archetype: The Freemium Forge
Business Model: Forge as Tool Marketing
• “Closed” projects are subscription
• Reselling software for internal corporate use
• Forge as a software product
Defining Attributes
• Focus on a few highly developed tools
• Low barriers for adoption
• Limits on free use cases
Example Sites
• GitHub
• BitBucket
• CodebaseHQ
• LaunchPad
Confidential Geeknet, page

13. Forge Archetype: The Purebred Forge
Business Model: Technology-invested Patron
• Promote specific technology
• Dual purpose as directory and Forge
• Descendant of Perl’s CPAN model
Defining Attributes
• Small, homogenous population
• Technology-specific features (ie RubyGems)
Example Sites
• RubyForge
• LuaForge
• JavaForge
• MozDev
• Codeplex
Confidential Geeknet, page

14. Forge Archetype: The Hearts and Minds Forge
Business Model: Strengthen and promote OSS
• Build influence and clout in the OSS world
• Provide parameters for license selection
• Publish own OSS works
Defining Attributes
• Powerful Brand
• No direct monetization
• Build presence in OSS community
Example Sites
• Google Code
• Savannah
Confidential Geeknet, page

15. What about SourceForge?
Business Models:
• Ads -- indirect monetization of consumption
• Lead generation
• Market for developer services
• Enterprise Software
• Help companies build their own forge (Open @ Adobe)
Defining Attributes
• Focus on publishing -> downloads
• Producer/Consumer social structure enforced
• Divided into distribution / directory / forge
• Offer many “external services”
Confidential Geeknet, page

16. Forge Vendor Challenges
Software technology moves fast
Having established user-base is a mixed blessing
Business models are fragile
Competition is increasing
Self hosting costs are plummeting
OSS Collaboration Tools are improving
Confidential Geeknet, page

17. Forge vs Self Hosting
Forge Advantages
• Low effort cost for initialization/maintenance
• Data management is S.E.P.
• Visibility / Traffic
Forge Disadvantages
• Risks of “Forge Failure”
• Changes of environment
• No data portability
Self Hosting
• Control over environment
• More flexibility in tool configuration
• Many customizable OSS tools available
• Signal project is done with “incubation”
• Rapidly falling costs
Confidential Geeknet, page

18. Nate’s Forge Utopia
Namespace coordination
• Collisions should be known, but (maybe) not enforced
• Syndicated DOAP records
Data portability
• Moving between Forges or to Self Host
• Standardized formats for different artifacts
Ala Carte Access
• Best of each Forge
• Integrate other web collaboration tools
Lower costs to entry as vendor
• Better OSS Forge platforms
• Facilitate self hosting
Confidential Geeknet, page

19. Forges Beyond Software
Music (AudioDraft)
DIY (Instructables)
Graphics (Tango)
Stuff (Thingiverse)
Electronics (Arduino)
Products (Makerbot)
Confidential Geeknet, page