Tim Petry

1. Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City
Corn, Cattle and Confusion
Tim Petry – Livestock Economist
www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics
November 6, 2012
Corn-Cattle-Confusion.ppt

2. NOV FC vs DEC CORN

3. All Feeder Livestock Affected
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
500-600 Pounds, Weekly 700-800 Pounds, Weekly
$ Per Cwt. $ Per Cwt.
200 170
190 160
Avg. Avg.
180 2006-10 150 2006-10
170
140
160
150 2011 130 2011
140 120
130
110
120
2012 100 2012
110
100 C-P-54 90 C-P-49
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
11/05/12 11/05/12
FEEDER PIG PRICES FEEDER LAMB PRICES
40 Pounds, Weekly 3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly
$ Per Head $ Per Cwt.
95 270
Avg. 250
85 Avg.
2006-10
230 2006-10
75
210
65
190
2011
55 170 2011
45 150
35 130
2012 110 2012
25
90
15 H-P-01 S-P-06
70
11/05/12 JAN APR JUL OCT 10/30/12
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Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

4. Western SD – Black Hills

5. Eastern SD – Yellow Hills

6. BEEF COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
95
90 Avg.
85 2006-
10
80
75
70 2011
65
60
55 2012
50 C-S-34
45 11/02/12
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DAIRY COW INVENTORY
US Total, Monthly
Thou Head
9320
Avg.
2006-
9270 010
9220 2011
9170
2012
9120
9070
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 10/19/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS

7. HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF
COW REPLACEMENTS
Mil. Head
July 1, U.S.
7
6
5
4
3 C-N-37
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 07/20/12
JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES
Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
Mil. Head
55
50
45
40 -3.2%
Livestock Marketing
35
Information Center
C-N-32
Data Source: USDA/NASS 30
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 07/20/12

8. BROILER EGGS SET
Weekly
Mil. Eggs
220
215
210 Avg.
2006-
205
10
200
195
2011
190
185
180
P-S-10
175 2012
11/01/12
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HOG SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
2,500
2,400
Avg.
2,300 2006-10
2,200
2,100
2,000 2011
1,900
1,800
1,700 2012
1,600
H-S-05
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Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS 11/02/12

9. BARROW AND GILT PRICES
Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
110
Avg.
100 2006-10
90 2011
80
2012
70
60
2013 H-P-09
Futures
50 11/05/12
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BROILER PRICES CLASS III MILK PRICES
12-City Composite, Weekly FMMO, Monthly
Cents Per Pound $ Per Pound
98 23.00
22.00 Avg.
93 Avg. 2006-10
2006-10
21.00
88 20.00
19.00
2011
83 2011 18.00
17.00
78 16.00
15.00 2012
73
2012 14.00
68 13.00 11/02/12
P-P-01
12.00
11/05/12
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JA
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

10. MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES
550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
190
180
2007
170
2008
160 2009
150 2010
140 2011
130 2012
120
110
100
90
JAN APR JUL OCT

11. MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
170 2007
160 2008
150 2009
140 2010
2011
130
2012
120 Fut 2012
110 Fut 2013
100
90
80
JAN APR JUL OCT

12. SF_LS796
Sioux Falls, SD Nov 2, 2012 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News
North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Nov 3, 2012
Receipts: 12,564 Last Week 9,984 Last Year 12,056
Combined results of 3 auctions this week: Kist, Napoleon, and Stockmen’s.
Compared to last weeks: Feeder steers 1.00 to 3.00 lower, except 600-650 lbs 4.00 to 5.00 lower.
Feeder heifers under 600 lbs mostly steady, over 600 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good
this week. The feeder market came under pressure as CME Live Cattle contracts
hit a wall and stopped their advance with Dec closing the week at 125.42. Cash fed cattle traded steady
to 1.00 lower at 126.00-127.00, leaving the cash market with a positive basis over the futures price.
Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
6 320 320 176.00 176.00
97 352-393 364 184.00-207.00 195.03
151 404-446 426 173.00-195.00 184.30
477 456-498 479 163.50-177.50 168.67
94 451-483 458 175.00-185.00 181.39 Value Added
887 502-549 528 159.00-171.00 164.97
23 533 533 151.00 151.00 Fleshy
54 513 513 172.50 172.50 Value Added
1165 551-597 576 151.75-162.75 157.85
148 553-566 555 163.50-168.75 167.61 Value Added
885 601-649 620 147.50-157.25 153.32 Calves
50 601 601 163.00 163.00 Fancy
39 610 610 159.00 159.00 Value Added
552 650-698 671 144.50-155.25 150.93 Calves
82 705-728 712 146.00-149.00 148.11
165 704-740 723 145.50-152.00 148.57 Calves
82 750-791 766 137.00-146.50 144.21
20 772-794 783 140.50-143.00 141.36 Calves
14 833 833 145.25 145.25 Calves
178 853-897 877 134.50-145.50 143.19
26 891 891 128.25 128.25 Fleshy
30 903 903 136.50 136.50
48 963-993 980 127.75-134.50 129.58
59 961 961 138.25 138.25 Fancy

13. www.ag.ndsu.edu/cattledocs

14. 10/15/12 550 lb steer, $1.63/lb ($896/hd)
ADG 1.75 2.50 3.25
Gain 100 200 300 100 200 300 100 200 300
DOF 57 114 171 40 80 120 30 61 92
Vet 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Yard 11.4 22.8 34.2 8 16 24 6.2 12.3 18.5
Feed 81 161 263 65 136 212 55 120 188
Death 9.5 10.0 10.6 9.5 9.9 10.3 9.4 9.8 10.1
Int 8.91 18.69 29.64 6.18 12.88 20.15 4.72 9.80 15.27
LRP 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Misc 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
COG 1.39 1.20 1.22 1.18 1.02 .99 1.05 .91 .87
BE 1.59 1.52 1.49 1.56 1.47 1.40 1.54 1.43 1.36
date 12/11 2/6 4/4 11/24 1/3 2/12 11/4 12/15 1/15
Weight 650 750 850 650 750 850 650 750 850
Price 1.53 1.51 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.45 1.52 1.49 1.44
$/hd 985 1121 1237 978 1114 1220 978 1106 1212
Net -42 -7 -14 -27 +23 +39 -13 +39 +65

15. End of Rainbow for the Next Several Years
Questions?