John little, whiskey and flow
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a great way for understanding flow numbers and Little's law
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John little, whiskey and flow
- 1. John Little, whiskey and flow Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli
- 2. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 3. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 4. Flow numbers at the bar
- 5. WIP • The number of bottles in the bar. Bottles that have been opened, but not yet empty.
- 6. Lead time • The time between the bottle is added to the bar and the bottle comes out of the bar (empty).
- 7. Cycle time • The time between two successive empty bottles leaving the bar
- 8. Throughput • The rate at which bottles are passing through the bar.
- 9. Batch size • The size of the bottles.
- 10. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 11. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 12. Flow numbers at the Kanban board
- 13. To Do Doing Done 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 14. To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 15. To Do Doing Done Day 6 Day 1 12 10 10 10 John 1 7 Lead Time 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 16. To Do Doing Done Cycle time 12 10 1 John Day 1 7 Day 2 5 4 9 Suzy 21 Day 3 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 17. To Do Doing Done 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 Throughput 5 Amy
- 18. To Do Doing Done 12 10 1 John Batch size 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 19. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 20. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 21. Little’s Law
- 22. To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 23. To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 Demand Throughput 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul 17 5 Amy
- 24. To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul Lead Time 17 5 Amy
- 25. To Do Doing Done WIP 12 10 1 John 7 5 4 9 Suzy 21 18 31 Paul Lead Time 17 5 Amy # WIP is proportional to average lead time
- 26. “The average number of work items in a stable system is equal to their average completion rate, multiplied by their average time in the system.” John Little, 1961
- 27. WIP = Throughput x Lead time
- 28. The numbers at my bar • My bar has 12 bottles of whiskey • I finish an average of 6 bottles per year • What is the average lead time for a bottle of whiskey?
- 29. ?
- 30. WIP = Throughput x Lead time 12 b= 6 b / year x Lead time Lead time = 2 years
- 31. Cycle time is the inverse of Throughput
- 32. WIP = Throughput x Lead time <=> Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time
- 33. Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time 2 years = 12 b x Cycle time
- 34. Cycle time = 1 year / 6 b
- 36. Cycle time = 2 months / 1 b
- 37. In average, I finish a bottle every 2 months
- 38. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 39. Agenda • Flow numbers at the bar • Flow numbers at the Kanban board • Little’s Law • Q&A
- 40. Questions to the audience • What happens if my bar size reduces by half? • What if I only buy small bottles (half size)? • What if I double my drinking average? • Q&A
- 41. John Little, whiskey and flow Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli
- 42. Thank you! Questions? feedback please: @paulocaroli www.KanbanAndBeyond.com Paulo Caroli Agile Coach pcaroli@thoughtworks.com Twitter: @paulocaroli