1. Jan 2013
The assessment by the images
The images have been taken and arranged from the various chapters as an education resource
Text in blue is Climate Emergency Institute

2. Between January 14th and April 12th : Please go to Review and Comment to provide
comments on the draft.
http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

3. For the US assessment images skip to slide 30
4-5 Response in brief
6-7 Risk and decision making slides
8-29 Science slides
30- 86 US assessment slides

4. Response in brief
The US draft climate change assessment report (which includes global content) is a most important document to
read and to provide input on.
The US Global Change department has produced an assessment that is very well presented for public information
and in general covers the issues very well.
There is much to be learned from this assessment.
It provides information by which the public could assess many of the risks but it is not an actual risk assessment.
Even so the assessment makes it clear America and the world are today in a state of global climate
emergency.
The greatest risks to all humanity and our planet which result from the rapid loss of Arctic albedo cooling are not
included. This is a grave omission.
The multiple combined adverse impacts to crops that are recorded are not reflected in the predictions of food
security, and so the risk to food security is greatly understated. This is most dangerously misleading to Americans.
The assessment fails to say that only DECARBONIZATION of the world economy, or stopping all industrial age
carbon emissions, can stop the global temperature and ocean acidification continuing to increase

5. Greatest fundamental fatal error. The assessment fails to say that only stopping carbon
emissions can lower the atmospheric CO2 level or stabilize it in the long term- zero carbon
emissions. Reducing emissions will not prevent eventual global climate catastrophe from the
accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. The assessment does not say we have to totally
convert off fossil fuels onto clean zero carbon and everlasting energy (which is abundant) to
prevent eventual planetary catastrophe.
Key Message 5. Science
Past emissions of heat-trapping gases have already committed the world to a certain amount of future
climate change. How much more the climate will change depends on future emissions and the sensitivity
of the climate system to those emissions. A certain amount of climate change is already inevitable due to
the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere from human activities over the past few centuries. Even if the net
CO2 emissions could be reduced to zero today, the human-induced perturbation to the global carbon
cycle would persist for thousands of years (NRC 2011).
Key Messages Mitigation
1. There are long time lags between actions taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and their effects
on its atmospheric concentration. Mitigation efforts that only stabilize global emissions will therefore not
reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, but will only limit their rate of increase. ….
… Mitigation refers to actions that reduce the human contribution to the planetary greenhouse effect.
Mitigation actions include lowering emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, and
particles that have a warming effect.

6. Decision making.
A comprehensive integrated risk assessment of climate change impacts has not been
published.

7. Note: increasing uncertainty (from model results) over time.
There is also multiplication cascade of uncertainties from model results at many stages of assessment ending at
population health impacts. These increase risks of delaying action.

8. Appendix II
Science

9. THE SCIENCE

11. Figure 16: Only Human Influence Can
Explain Recent Warming
Caption: Changes in surface air
temperature at the continental and global
scales can only
be explained by the influence of human
activities on climate. The black line
depicts the
observed changes in ten-year averages.
The blue shading represents estimates
from a
broad range of climate simulations
including solely natural (solar and
volcanic) changes.
The pink shading shows simulations
including both the natural and human
contributions.
(Figure source: Jones et al. submitted)

15. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are currently increasing at a rate of 0.5% per year.
Atmospheric levels reached 392 parts per million in 2012, higher than anything the Earth has 1
experienced in over a million years (the figure shows the ice core record for CO2 levels over the
last 800,000 years).
Globally, over the past several decades, about 80% of carbon dioxide emissions from human
activities came from burning fossil fuels, while about 20% came from deforestation and other
agricultural practices.
Some of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, and some is
absorbed by vegetation. About 45% of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities in the
last 50 years is now stored in the oceans and vegetation. The remainder has stayed in the
atmosphere, where carbon dioxide levels have increased by 40% relative to
pre-industrial levels.

17. Methane levels in the atmosphere have increased mainly as a result of agriculture including
raising livestock (which produce methane in their digestive tracts); mining coal, extraction and
transport of natural gas, and other fossil fuel-related activities; and waste disposal including
sewage and decomposing garbage in landfills. About 70% of the emissions of atmospheric
methane now come from human activities. Atmospheric amounts of methane leveled off from
1999-2006 due to temporary decreases in both human and natural sources, but have been
increasing again since then.
Since preindustrial times, methane levels have increased by 250% to their current
levels of 1.85 ppm.
Methane has direct radiative effects on climate because it traps heat, and indirect effects on
climate because of its influences on atmospheric chemistry. An increase in methane
concentration in the industrial era has contributed to warming in many ways (Forster et al.
2007). Increases in atmospheric methane, VOCs, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are expected to
deplete concentrations of hydroxyl radicals, causing methane to persist in the atmosphere and
exert its warming effect for longer periods (Montzka et al. 2011; Prinn et al. 2005). The hydroxyl
radical is the most important “cleaning agent” of the troposphere, where it is formed by a
complex series of reactions involving ozone and ultraviolet light (Schlesinger and Bernhardt
2013).

18. Other greenhouse gases produced by human activities include
nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and (ground level) ozone.
Nitrous oxide levels are increasing primarily as a result of fertilizer use and fossil fuel
burning.
They have increased by about 20% relative to pre-industrial times.
The strongest direct effect of an altered nitrogen cycle is through emissions of nitrous oxide
(N2O), a long-lived and potent greenhouse gas that is increasing steadily in the atmosphere
(Forster et al. 2007; Montzka et al. 2011).
Globally, agriculture has accounted for most of the atmospheric rise in N2O (Matson et al. 1998;
Robertson et al. 2000). Roughly 60% of agricultural N2O derives from high soil emissions that
are caused by nitrogen fertilizer use.
Animal waste treatment and crop-residue burning account for about 30% and about 10%,
respectively (Robertson 2004).
The U.S. reflects this global trend: around 75% to 80% of U.S.
human-caused N2O emissions are due to agricultural activities, with the majority being
emissions

19. The nitrogen cycle affects atmospheric concentrations of the three most important human-
caused greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
Once created, a molecule of reactive nitrogen has a cascading impact on people and ecosystems as it
contributes to a number of environmental issues. (Figure adapted from EPA 2011a; Galloway et al. 2003,
with input from USDA). (USDA contributors were Adam Chambers and Margaret Walsh.)
These problems persist until the reactive nitrogen is either captured and stored in a long-term pool, like the
mineral layers of soil or deep ocean sediments, or converted back to nitrogen gas (N2) (Baron et al. 2012;
Galloway et al. 2003).

20. -- lower- atmosphere ozone levels have increased because of human activities,
including transportation and manufacturing. These produce what are known as ozone
precursors: air pollutants that react with sunlight and other chemicals to produce ozone.
Since the late 1800s, average levels of ozone in the lower atmosphere
have increased by more than 30% (Lamarque et al. 2005).
Much higher increases have been observed in areas with high levels of air pollution, and lesser
increases in remote locations where the air has remained relatively clean

29. US Global Change
Jan 2013

30. Jan 2013
The assessment in the images
The images have been taken and arranged from the various chapters as an education resource
Text in blue is Climate Emergency Institute

31. IPCC 2007 IPCC 2014
4th assessment 5th assessment
socio-economic socio-economic
scenarios scenarios
Carbon
Emissions
Atmospheric
CO2
concentration
Global average
Temperature
change

34. Caption: Projected change (°F) in annual average temperature over the period 2071-2099
(compared to the period 1971-2000) under a low emissions pathway (RCP 2.6, left graph) that
assumes rapid reductions in emissions and a high pathway (RCP 8.5, right graph) that assumes
continued increases in emissions. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5.)

41. °C
IPCC 2007 assessment scenarios
IPCC 2014 assessment scenarios
US Global Change Climate Assessment Draft Jan 2013

42. Maps show projected change in average surface air temperature in the later part of this century (2070-2099) relative to
the later part of the last century 6 (1971-1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping
gases (B1, left) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in global emissions (A2, right). These
scenarios are used throughout this report 9 for assessing impacts under lower and higher emissions. Projected changes
are 10 averages from 15 CMIP3 models for the A2 scenario and 14 models for the B1 scenario. (Figure source: adapted
from (Kunkel et al. 2012).)

43. Temperature change projections new IPCC scenarios
Maps show projected change in average surface air temperature in the later part of this century
(2070-2099) relative to the later part of the last century 6 (1971-1999)

46. Caption: Projected percent change in annual average precipitation over the period 2071-2099
(compared to the period 1901-1960) under a low emissions pathway (RCP 2.6) that assumes
rapid reductions in emissions and a high pathway (RCP 8.5) that assumes continued increases in
emissions. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate
confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier.

48. Projected percent change in seasonal
precipitation for 2070-2099
(compared to the period 1901-1960)
under an emissions scenario that
assumes continued increases in
emissions (A2). Teal indicates
precipitation increases, and brown,
decreases. Hatched areas indicate
confidence that the projected changes
are large and are consistently wetter or
drier. White areas indicate confidence
that the changes are small. Wet
regions tend to become wetter while
dry regions become drier. In general,
the northern part of the U.S. is
projected to see more winter and
spring precipitation, while the
Southwest is projected to experience
less precipitation in the spring. (Figure
source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data 11
from CMIP3; analyzed by Michael
Wehner, LBNL.)

56. Polar regions
Key Message 11.
Summer Arctic sea ice extent, volume, and thickness have declined rapidly, especially
north of Alaska. Permafrost temperatures are rising and the overall amount of permafrost is
shrinking. Melting of land and sea-based ice is expected to continue with further warming.

59. Reductions in sea ice increase the amount of the sun’s energy that is absorbed by the ocean. This
leads to a self-reinforcing climate cycle, because the warmer ocean melts more ice, leaving more
dark open water that gains even more heat. In autumn and winter, there is a strong release of this
extra ocean heat back to the atmosphere. This is a key driver of the observed increases in air
temperature in the Arctic (Screen and Simmonds 2010; Serreze et al. 2008). This strong warming
linked to ice loss can influence atmospheric circulation and patterns of precipitation, both within
and beyond the Arctic (for example, Porter et al. 2012). There is growing evidence that this has
already occurred (Francis and Vavrus 2012) through more evaporation from the ocean, which
increases water vapor in the lower atmosphere.

61. On land, changes in permafrost provide
compelling indicators of climate change as they
tend to
reflect long-term average changes in climate.
Borehole measurements are particularly useful
as
they provide information from levels below
about 10-meter depth where the seasonal cycle
becomes negligible. Increases in borehole
temperatures over the past several decades are
apparent at various locations, including Alaska,
northern Canada, Greenland, and northern
Russia. The increases are about 3.6°F at the two
stations in northern Alaska (Deadhorse and
13 West Dock). In northern Alaska and northern
Siberia where permafrost is cold and deep, thaw
of the entire permafrost layer is not imminent.
However, in the large areas of discontinuous
permafrost of Russia, Alaska, and Canada,
average annual temperatures are sufficiently
close to freezing that permafrost thaw is a risk
within this century. Thawing of permafrost can
release methane into the atmosphere,
amplifying warming,
US Gl Change Jan 2013

62. Changes in terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska and the Arctic may be influencing the global climate
system.
Permafrost soils throughout the entire Arctic contain almost twice as much carbon as the
atmosphere (Schuur and Abbott 2011). Warming and thawing of these soils increases the
release of carbon dioxide and methane through increased decomposition and methane
production.
Thawing permafrost also delivers organic-rich soils to lake bottoms, where decomposition in
the absence of oxygen releases additional methane (Walter et al. 2006).
Extensive wildfiresalso
release carbon that contributes to climate warming (Balshi et al. 2008; French et al. 2004;
Zhuang et al. 2007). T

66. Agriculture
Food Security

67. Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security both
in the U.S. and globally, not only through changes in crop yields, but also changes in
the ways climate affects food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing.

75. Figure 6.4: Crop Yield Response to
Warming in California’s Central Valley
Caption: Changes in climate through this
century will affect crops differently because
individual species respond differently to
warming. Crop yield responses for eight
crops in the central valley of California are
projected under two emissions scenarios,
one in which heat-trapping gas emissions
are substantially reduced (B1, in gold) and
another in which these emissions continue
to grow (A2, in red). The crop model used in
this analysis (DAYCENT) assumes that water
supplies and nutrients are maintained at
adequate levels.
The lines show five-year moving averages for
the period from 2000 to 2097 with the yield
changes shown as differences from the 2000
baseline. Yield response varies among crops
with alfalfa showing only year-to-year
variation across the whole period, while
cotton, maize, wheat, and sunflower begin
to show yield declines early in the period.
Rice and tomato do not show a yield
response until the latter half of the period
with the higher emissions scenario resulting
in a larger yield response (Lee et al. 2011).

77. Health