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1
NON REVIEWED INFORMATION
3rd Quarter 2014
__
Conference Call / Webcast
January 29th 2015
2
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning
of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are subject to
risks and uncertainties. The forward-looking statements, which address the
Company’s expected business and financial performance, among other
matters, contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,”
“optimistic,” “intend,” “plan,” “aim,” “will,” “may,” “should,” “could,” “would,”
“likely,” and similar expressions. Readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the
date on which they are made. There is no assurance that the expected
events, trends or results will actually occur. We undertake no obligation to
publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a
result of new information or future events or for any other reason. The
Company’s actual results could differ materially from those expressed or
forecast in any forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of
assumptions and factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, the
following: (i) failure to comply with laws or regulations, including fraudulent
activity, corruption, and bribery; (ii) the outcome of ongoing corruption
investigations and any new facts or information that may arise in relation to
the “Lava Jato Operation”; (iii) the effectiveness of the Company’s risk
management policies and procedures, including operational risk; and (iv)
litigation, such as class actions or proceedings brought by governmental
and regulatory agencies.
A description of other factors can be found in the Company’s Annual
Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013, and the
Company’s other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas
resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with
the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under
new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not
qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of
Regulation S-X.
3
Background: Lava Jato Operation and Investigations
“Lava Jato
Operation”
conducted by
the Federal
Police
Mar/14
Oct/14
Need to
postpone the
release of the
Financial
Statements
Nov/14
Dec/14
“Lava Jato Operation” reached Petrobras in March 2014 through the arrest of the
company’s former Downstream Director, Paulo Roberto Costa, on charges of corruption,
embezzlement, among other offenses.
When the Company filed its 2013 and first half 2014 annual financial statements, there was
no evidence available that would have affected the conclusions of the Company or the
independent auditors regarding the financial statements;
Beginning on October 8, 2014, depositions of former Director, Paulo Roberto Costa, and
other investigation targets were made public, mentioning “cartelization”, “exceeding prices”
and “bribery”.
With these investigations, Petrobras was not able to release the reviewed 3Q14 financial
statements, due to the time needed to:
gain greater understanding from the ongoing internal investigations led by independent law
firms;
make any necessary adjustments to the financial statements.
4
The depositions to which Petrobras had access as “borrowed evidence” identify a list of
suppliers and contractors involved in the alleged misconduct and state that the improper
payments averaged 3% of the total price of the contracts involved;
The information currently available to the Company indicates that contracts entered into
between January 1, 2004 and April 30, 2012 with the companies named in the depositions
may have included amounts related to the misconduct;
LIMITATION: The Company can’t correctly determine either the amount or the period when
these payments were made, because the misconduct involves payments made by external
suppliers and cannot be traced back to the company’s accounting records.
Need to Rectify the Error (IAS-8):
Values improperly recognized in the Company’s PP&E due to corruption
Available
Information
Given this limitation and the need to rectify the error (values improperly recognized in
PP&E), the Company considered two approaches to try to quantify them.
5
Methodology 1 – Average Percentage of Improper Payments
Estimation of the magnitude of the error using the average percentage mentioned in the depositions (“3%”)
The Company identified the amounts paid from 2004 to September 2014 with respect to the contracts signed
between Petrobras and the groups of companies mentioned in the depositions (either in isolation or as a part of a
consortium) from 01/01/2004 to 04/30/2012.
Considering this scope of contracts and respective amendments, the Company applied the following approach:
i. Applying an average percentage of 3%, considering this the percentage of improper payments which
increased the amounts charged to the Company;
ii. The use of specific amounts of improper payments mentioned in the depositions.
The potential effect of using this approach would be an estimated loss of R$ 4.06 billion.
Additional information regarding the ongoing investigations could result in:
a.) further adjustments;
b.) expansion of the scope for contracts and companies;
c.) period of analysis.
6
Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (1/3)
Concept and Approach
Two approaches: (1) cost approach, considering the replacement cost; or (2) income approach,
considering the discounted cash flows;
The fair value of the assets was measured on a standalone and independent basis (excluding
synergies Petrobras may have due to its integrated operation), in order to determine the value of
these assets from the perspective of third parties (market view).
Book Value (-) Fair Value = Correction Value
7
• Evaluation carried out by global firms internationally recognized as independent evaluators;
• 52 assets under construction or in operation were selected that amounted R$ 188 billion, 1/3 of the company’s total fixed
assets (R$ 600 billion);
• The analysis of 19% was conducted by the technical teams of Petrobras, employing full methodological consistency and
the same assumptions as the work carried out by the independent evaluators.
129.0
Others*
120.0
9.0
PP&E related to the
companies named as part of
the cartel
Contracts signed between
2004 and Apr/12
R$ billion
These R$ 120 billion are included in the
R$ 188,4 billion of evaluated assets
411.7Not Evaluated
188.4 Evaluated**
600.1
Consolidated PP&E
* Fixed assets with contracts in Lava Jato Operation without economic-financial evaluation represent a high amount of assets of various nature
with non material individual book value ** considers non-Petrobras portion of Tupi BV (R$ 3.6 billion).
81%
19%
Independent Evaluators
Petrobras
R$ 188.4 billion
52 assets
24 assets
R$ 152.8 bi
28 assets
R$ 35.6 bi
R$ billion
Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (2/3)
52 Assets Selected
Contracts for
Evaluation
8
The difference should be understood as being comprised of several components of different natures, being
impossible to quantify them individually, as for example:
changes in price and margin projections of inputs
changes in price, margin and demand projections of traded products
changes in equipment prices, inputs, wages and other correlated costs
deficiencies in project planning (engineering and supply)
contracting made before the conclusion of the basic project
changes in economic/financial variables, such as exchange and discount rate, risk indicators and cost of capital
Fair Value of the assets lower than book value Fair Value of the assets higher than book value
31 assets
Estimated Amount: - R$ 88.6 billion
21 assets
Estimated Amount: + R$ 27.2 billion
WeaknessResults
Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (3/3)
Results and Weakness
contractual clauses inappropriate to changes in scope: term and value amendments
delays and inefficiency in the execution of constructions, also because of environmental conditions
cartelization of suppliers: corruption and overcharging
9
The comparison between the fair value and the book value does not isolate the
amount related to corruption and therefore is not an adequate proxy;
We have decided not to use the methodology of determining the fair value as a
“proxy” to adjust the company’s fixed assets due to fraud and corruption, because
this adjustment would include elements with no direct relation with the unlawful
payments;
We will give proper treatment to the information contained in the report of the
independent appraisers (fair value calculation), in order to adjust the book value of
the assets of the Company, if necessary;
We are going to further examine another methodology that takes into account
values, deadlines and information from the depositions, in compliance with the
requirements of the regulators (CVM and SEC), aimed at releasing the financial
statements reviewed as soon as possible.
Conclusion and Next Steps
Petrobras’s cash position or operating cash flow is not affected by any adjustments arising
from corruption or any other related to the amount of its assets.
10
4.6
-48%
8.8
2Q14 3Q14
R$ Billion
3Q14 Results
Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14.
Operating Income 3Q14 x 2Q14
Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries
Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn)
Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective
Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn)
Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts
over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn)
Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural
gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn).
Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn)
Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19
and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn)
Operating Income
Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by
the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
11
-48%
3.1
4.6
8.8
-38%
5.0
2Q14 3Q14
R$ Billion
3Q14 Results
Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14. Decrease of 38% of Net Income.
Net Income
Operating Income
Net Income 3Q14 x 2Q14
Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries
Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn)
Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective
Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn)
Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts
over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn)
Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural
gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn).
Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn)
Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19
and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn)
Monetary restatement of the asset contingency related to the
improper PIS and COFINS payments over finance income
between Feb/99 and Dec/02 (R$ 1.4 Bn)
Lower Income Tax - IR and CSLL (R$ 1.6 Bn)
Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by
the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
12
-27%
5.0
11.8
4.6
-48%
16.2
8.8
3.1 -38%
2Q14 3Q14
R$ bilhão
3Q14 Results
Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14. Decrease of 38% of Net Income. Decrease of 27% of EBITDA.
Net Income
EBITDA
Operating Income
EBITDA 3Q14 x 2Q14
Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries
Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn)
Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective
Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn)
Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts
over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn)
Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural
gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn).
Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn)
Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19
and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn)
Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by
the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
13
Financial Ratios – Indebtedness
R$ Billion 12/31/13 09/30/14
Short-term Debt 18.8 28.2
Long-term Debt 249.0 303.5
Total Debt 267.8 331.7
(-) Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalent 46.3 70.3
= Net Debt 221.6 261.4
US$ Billion
Net Debt 94.6 106.7
Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalents of R$ 70.3 Bn on
3Q14
Total debt impacted by Real devaluation.
ND/EBITDA = 4.63x
LEVERAGE = 43%
Covenants of Debt Agreements
Covenants related to Annual Financial Statements:
Bilateral Debt requires the disclosure of audited Annual Financial Statements within 120 days after the year
end + 30 or 60 days of grace period;
Bonds requires the disclosure of audited Annual Financial Statements to the trustee within 120 days after the
year end + 60 days of grace period, which starts with the notification.
The disclosure of the financial statements of the 3Q-2014, not reviewed by independent auditors, aims to
comply with covenant obligations in debt agreements
14
2015 Forecast – Oil Production Target: 2,125 th. bpd
Future production perspectives:
New systems will be in pre-salt, which represents excellent productivity, with an average of 20 th. bpd per will,
reaching more than 35 th. bpd in some cases.
Roncador problems will be solved and will not impact the production curve in the long term.
Progress in the ramp-up of production units that started-up in 2013/14 ensured
by a larger PLSVs fleet (19), with highlight to FPSO Cid. Ilhabela and Cid.
Mangaratiba.
Connection of 69 wells (producers + injections) .
Natural decline of Petrobras’ fields stable, around 9%.
Start-up of FPSO Cid. Itaguaí (4Q15).
Impact of delivery delays and lower level of platforms completion by shipyards
in 2014.
Delay in P-61 installation due to more severe environmental conditions (1Q15).
Revision of Roncador Modules 3 (P-55) and 4 (P-62) potential.
• Water injection deficit:
Intensification of injection, with repressuriztion normalized in 12 months.
• Heterogeneity and compartmentalization of reservoir not expected.
Decommissioning of the production of FPSO Marlim Sul.
Oil Production
(th. bpd)
2015
Forecast
2,125
2014
2,034
4.5%
+/- 1 p.p.
15
US$ 50 to 70 / bbl
The current oil levels are favorable to the Company in 2015 horizon
R$ 2.60 to 2.80 / USD
Oil Price
Target: Positive Free Cash Flow
Exchange Rate
Gasoline and diesel prices will be maintained. Review of the policy for all others oil products.Price Policy
Reducing the pace of projects, with low or no contribution to the cash in 2015 and
2016 in Downstream, Gas and Power and Exploration and Production segments.
2015 CAPEX: between US$ 31 and 33 billion.
CAPEX
Guarantees from the Brazilian Federal Government to the receivables of the Electric Sector
which will allow the negotiation of these credits in the financial market.
Working capital
optimization
Minimum Operational Cash of ~US$ 8 billion.Minimum Cash
2,105 to 2,146 thousand bpd
(4.5%, +/-1p.p.)
Around US$ 80 / bbl
Oil Production
Average ARP
Basic Oil Products *
* Average Realization Price of Diesel, Gasoline, Naphtha, LPG, Jet fuel and Fuel oil
2015 Projections - Cash Flow Assumptions
16
Cash Flow for 2015: No Need for Funding
Assuming no change in domestic prices and market share maintenance, every US$ 5 of
decrease in Brent price increases the cash flow in ~ US$ 0.5 billion.
Oil Price
Assuming constant Brent in Reais and market share maintenance, each 5% decrease in
ARP reduces the cash flow in ~ US$ 3 billion.
Average Realization
Price
3
25
2015 Initial Balance CAPEX DivestmentDividends, Amortization
and Interest
Operational
Generation
2015 Final Balance
US$ Billion
Variation due to Brent and exchange rate scenarios28 to 32 -16 to -18
-31 to -33
8 to 12
*
* Management Data.
17
Corporate Governance Improvement
66 measures to improve governance, control and risk management: documented in standards
and minutes of management meetings that establish procedures, methods, responsibilities and other
guidelines to integrate such measures into the Company’s practices.
Creation of the position of Executive Director of Governance, Risk and Compliance: aim of
supporting the Company’s compliance programs and mitigating risks in its activities, including fraud
and corruption, ensuring the compliance of the processes with adherence to law, norms, standards
and regulations.
Nomination of new Governance, Risk and Compliance Officer, João Adalberto Elek Júnior:
selection process conducted by specialized firm and elected from a list of three candidates submitted
to the Board of Directors.
Creation of a Special Committee (Reporting Line): composed of Mrs. Ellen Gracie Northfleet,
retired Chief Justice of the Brazilian Supreme Court, Mr. Andreas Pohlmann, Chief Compliance
Officer of Siemens AG from 2007 to 2010, and the Executive Director of Governance, Risk and
Compliance, João Adalberto Elek Junior, will report to the Board on the independent internal
investigation being conducted by TRW and Gibson Dunn.
The Company continues to improve its internal controls, having, as main inputs, the results of the
Internal Investigation Committees.
18
Information:
Investor Relations
+55 21 3224-1510
petroinvest@petrobras.com.br
NON REVIEWED INFORMATION
3rd Quarter 2014
__

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Webcast 3 t14-nao-revisado-ingles

  • 1. 1 NON REVIEWED INFORMATION 3rd Quarter 2014 __ Conference Call / Webcast January 29th 2015
  • 2. 2 DISCLAIMER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The forward-looking statements, which address the Company’s expected business and financial performance, among other matters, contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “optimistic,” “intend,” “plan,” “aim,” “will,” “may,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “likely,” and similar expressions. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. There is no assurance that the expected events, trends or results will actually occur. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. The Company’s actual results could differ materially from those expressed or forecast in any forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of assumptions and factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, the following: (i) failure to comply with laws or regulations, including fraudulent activity, corruption, and bribery; (ii) the outcome of ongoing corruption investigations and any new facts or information that may arise in relation to the “Lava Jato Operation”; (iii) the effectiveness of the Company’s risk management policies and procedures, including operational risk; and (iv) litigation, such as class actions or proceedings brought by governmental and regulatory agencies. A description of other factors can be found in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013, and the Company’s other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
  • 3. 3 Background: Lava Jato Operation and Investigations “Lava Jato Operation” conducted by the Federal Police Mar/14 Oct/14 Need to postpone the release of the Financial Statements Nov/14 Dec/14 “Lava Jato Operation” reached Petrobras in March 2014 through the arrest of the company’s former Downstream Director, Paulo Roberto Costa, on charges of corruption, embezzlement, among other offenses. When the Company filed its 2013 and first half 2014 annual financial statements, there was no evidence available that would have affected the conclusions of the Company or the independent auditors regarding the financial statements; Beginning on October 8, 2014, depositions of former Director, Paulo Roberto Costa, and other investigation targets were made public, mentioning “cartelization”, “exceeding prices” and “bribery”. With these investigations, Petrobras was not able to release the reviewed 3Q14 financial statements, due to the time needed to: gain greater understanding from the ongoing internal investigations led by independent law firms; make any necessary adjustments to the financial statements.
  • 4. 4 The depositions to which Petrobras had access as “borrowed evidence” identify a list of suppliers and contractors involved in the alleged misconduct and state that the improper payments averaged 3% of the total price of the contracts involved; The information currently available to the Company indicates that contracts entered into between January 1, 2004 and April 30, 2012 with the companies named in the depositions may have included amounts related to the misconduct; LIMITATION: The Company can’t correctly determine either the amount or the period when these payments were made, because the misconduct involves payments made by external suppliers and cannot be traced back to the company’s accounting records. Need to Rectify the Error (IAS-8): Values improperly recognized in the Company’s PP&E due to corruption Available Information Given this limitation and the need to rectify the error (values improperly recognized in PP&E), the Company considered two approaches to try to quantify them.
  • 5. 5 Methodology 1 – Average Percentage of Improper Payments Estimation of the magnitude of the error using the average percentage mentioned in the depositions (“3%”) The Company identified the amounts paid from 2004 to September 2014 with respect to the contracts signed between Petrobras and the groups of companies mentioned in the depositions (either in isolation or as a part of a consortium) from 01/01/2004 to 04/30/2012. Considering this scope of contracts and respective amendments, the Company applied the following approach: i. Applying an average percentage of 3%, considering this the percentage of improper payments which increased the amounts charged to the Company; ii. The use of specific amounts of improper payments mentioned in the depositions. The potential effect of using this approach would be an estimated loss of R$ 4.06 billion. Additional information regarding the ongoing investigations could result in: a.) further adjustments; b.) expansion of the scope for contracts and companies; c.) period of analysis.
  • 6. 6 Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (1/3) Concept and Approach Two approaches: (1) cost approach, considering the replacement cost; or (2) income approach, considering the discounted cash flows; The fair value of the assets was measured on a standalone and independent basis (excluding synergies Petrobras may have due to its integrated operation), in order to determine the value of these assets from the perspective of third parties (market view). Book Value (-) Fair Value = Correction Value
  • 7. 7 • Evaluation carried out by global firms internationally recognized as independent evaluators; • 52 assets under construction or in operation were selected that amounted R$ 188 billion, 1/3 of the company’s total fixed assets (R$ 600 billion); • The analysis of 19% was conducted by the technical teams of Petrobras, employing full methodological consistency and the same assumptions as the work carried out by the independent evaluators. 129.0 Others* 120.0 9.0 PP&E related to the companies named as part of the cartel Contracts signed between 2004 and Apr/12 R$ billion These R$ 120 billion are included in the R$ 188,4 billion of evaluated assets 411.7Not Evaluated 188.4 Evaluated** 600.1 Consolidated PP&E * Fixed assets with contracts in Lava Jato Operation without economic-financial evaluation represent a high amount of assets of various nature with non material individual book value ** considers non-Petrobras portion of Tupi BV (R$ 3.6 billion). 81% 19% Independent Evaluators Petrobras R$ 188.4 billion 52 assets 24 assets R$ 152.8 bi 28 assets R$ 35.6 bi R$ billion Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (2/3) 52 Assets Selected Contracts for Evaluation
  • 8. 8 The difference should be understood as being comprised of several components of different natures, being impossible to quantify them individually, as for example: changes in price and margin projections of inputs changes in price, margin and demand projections of traded products changes in equipment prices, inputs, wages and other correlated costs deficiencies in project planning (engineering and supply) contracting made before the conclusion of the basic project changes in economic/financial variables, such as exchange and discount rate, risk indicators and cost of capital Fair Value of the assets lower than book value Fair Value of the assets higher than book value 31 assets Estimated Amount: - R$ 88.6 billion 21 assets Estimated Amount: + R$ 27.2 billion WeaknessResults Methodology 2 – Fair Value of Specified Assets (3/3) Results and Weakness contractual clauses inappropriate to changes in scope: term and value amendments delays and inefficiency in the execution of constructions, also because of environmental conditions cartelization of suppliers: corruption and overcharging
  • 9. 9 The comparison between the fair value and the book value does not isolate the amount related to corruption and therefore is not an adequate proxy; We have decided not to use the methodology of determining the fair value as a “proxy” to adjust the company’s fixed assets due to fraud and corruption, because this adjustment would include elements with no direct relation with the unlawful payments; We will give proper treatment to the information contained in the report of the independent appraisers (fair value calculation), in order to adjust the book value of the assets of the Company, if necessary; We are going to further examine another methodology that takes into account values, deadlines and information from the depositions, in compliance with the requirements of the regulators (CVM and SEC), aimed at releasing the financial statements reviewed as soon as possible. Conclusion and Next Steps Petrobras’s cash position or operating cash flow is not affected by any adjustments arising from corruption or any other related to the amount of its assets.
  • 10. 10 4.6 -48% 8.8 2Q14 3Q14 R$ Billion 3Q14 Results Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14. Operating Income 3Q14 x 2Q14 Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn) Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn) Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn) Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn). Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn) Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19 and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn) Operating Income Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
  • 11. 11 -48% 3.1 4.6 8.8 -38% 5.0 2Q14 3Q14 R$ Billion 3Q14 Results Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14. Decrease of 38% of Net Income. Net Income Operating Income Net Income 3Q14 x 2Q14 Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn) Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn) Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn) Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn). Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn) Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19 and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn) Monetary restatement of the asset contingency related to the improper PIS and COFINS payments over finance income between Feb/99 and Dec/02 (R$ 1.4 Bn) Lower Income Tax - IR and CSLL (R$ 1.6 Bn) Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
  • 12. 12 -27% 5.0 11.8 4.6 -48% 16.2 8.8 3.1 -38% 2Q14 3Q14 R$ bilhão 3Q14 Results Operating Income 48% lower than 2Q14. Decrease of 38% of Net Income. Decrease of 27% of EBITDA. Net Income EBITDA Operating Income EBITDA 3Q14 x 2Q14 Write-down of the amount related to the construction of refineries Premiium I and II (R$ 2.7 Bn) Employee compensation costs arising from the 2014 Collective Bargaining Agreement (R$ 1.0 Bn) Losses due to the registration of allowance for doubtful accounts over receivables of Independent Energy Producers (R$ 1.3 Bn) Agreement signed as to the performance of the Bolivian natural gas import contract (R$ 0.9 Bn). Higher oil production, resulting exports (R$ 2.4 Bn) Extraordinary gain from out-of-court agreement related to P-19 and P-31 (R$ 0.5 Bn) Operating Income and EBITDA were impacted, mainly, by the write-down of Premium I e II (R$ 2.7 Bn) and by the estimated losses on provision of Electricity Sector (R$ 1.3 Bn).
  • 13. 13 Financial Ratios – Indebtedness R$ Billion 12/31/13 09/30/14 Short-term Debt 18.8 28.2 Long-term Debt 249.0 303.5 Total Debt 267.8 331.7 (-) Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalent 46.3 70.3 = Net Debt 221.6 261.4 US$ Billion Net Debt 94.6 106.7 Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalents of R$ 70.3 Bn on 3Q14 Total debt impacted by Real devaluation. ND/EBITDA = 4.63x LEVERAGE = 43% Covenants of Debt Agreements Covenants related to Annual Financial Statements: Bilateral Debt requires the disclosure of audited Annual Financial Statements within 120 days after the year end + 30 or 60 days of grace period; Bonds requires the disclosure of audited Annual Financial Statements to the trustee within 120 days after the year end + 60 days of grace period, which starts with the notification. The disclosure of the financial statements of the 3Q-2014, not reviewed by independent auditors, aims to comply with covenant obligations in debt agreements
  • 14. 14 2015 Forecast – Oil Production Target: 2,125 th. bpd Future production perspectives: New systems will be in pre-salt, which represents excellent productivity, with an average of 20 th. bpd per will, reaching more than 35 th. bpd in some cases. Roncador problems will be solved and will not impact the production curve in the long term. Progress in the ramp-up of production units that started-up in 2013/14 ensured by a larger PLSVs fleet (19), with highlight to FPSO Cid. Ilhabela and Cid. Mangaratiba. Connection of 69 wells (producers + injections) . Natural decline of Petrobras’ fields stable, around 9%. Start-up of FPSO Cid. Itaguaí (4Q15). Impact of delivery delays and lower level of platforms completion by shipyards in 2014. Delay in P-61 installation due to more severe environmental conditions (1Q15). Revision of Roncador Modules 3 (P-55) and 4 (P-62) potential. • Water injection deficit: Intensification of injection, with repressuriztion normalized in 12 months. • Heterogeneity and compartmentalization of reservoir not expected. Decommissioning of the production of FPSO Marlim Sul. Oil Production (th. bpd) 2015 Forecast 2,125 2014 2,034 4.5% +/- 1 p.p.
  • 15. 15 US$ 50 to 70 / bbl The current oil levels are favorable to the Company in 2015 horizon R$ 2.60 to 2.80 / USD Oil Price Target: Positive Free Cash Flow Exchange Rate Gasoline and diesel prices will be maintained. Review of the policy for all others oil products.Price Policy Reducing the pace of projects, with low or no contribution to the cash in 2015 and 2016 in Downstream, Gas and Power and Exploration and Production segments. 2015 CAPEX: between US$ 31 and 33 billion. CAPEX Guarantees from the Brazilian Federal Government to the receivables of the Electric Sector which will allow the negotiation of these credits in the financial market. Working capital optimization Minimum Operational Cash of ~US$ 8 billion.Minimum Cash 2,105 to 2,146 thousand bpd (4.5%, +/-1p.p.) Around US$ 80 / bbl Oil Production Average ARP Basic Oil Products * * Average Realization Price of Diesel, Gasoline, Naphtha, LPG, Jet fuel and Fuel oil 2015 Projections - Cash Flow Assumptions
  • 16. 16 Cash Flow for 2015: No Need for Funding Assuming no change in domestic prices and market share maintenance, every US$ 5 of decrease in Brent price increases the cash flow in ~ US$ 0.5 billion. Oil Price Assuming constant Brent in Reais and market share maintenance, each 5% decrease in ARP reduces the cash flow in ~ US$ 3 billion. Average Realization Price 3 25 2015 Initial Balance CAPEX DivestmentDividends, Amortization and Interest Operational Generation 2015 Final Balance US$ Billion Variation due to Brent and exchange rate scenarios28 to 32 -16 to -18 -31 to -33 8 to 12 * * Management Data.
  • 17. 17 Corporate Governance Improvement 66 measures to improve governance, control and risk management: documented in standards and minutes of management meetings that establish procedures, methods, responsibilities and other guidelines to integrate such measures into the Company’s practices. Creation of the position of Executive Director of Governance, Risk and Compliance: aim of supporting the Company’s compliance programs and mitigating risks in its activities, including fraud and corruption, ensuring the compliance of the processes with adherence to law, norms, standards and regulations. Nomination of new Governance, Risk and Compliance Officer, João Adalberto Elek Júnior: selection process conducted by specialized firm and elected from a list of three candidates submitted to the Board of Directors. Creation of a Special Committee (Reporting Line): composed of Mrs. Ellen Gracie Northfleet, retired Chief Justice of the Brazilian Supreme Court, Mr. Andreas Pohlmann, Chief Compliance Officer of Siemens AG from 2007 to 2010, and the Executive Director of Governance, Risk and Compliance, João Adalberto Elek Junior, will report to the Board on the independent internal investigation being conducted by TRW and Gibson Dunn. The Company continues to improve its internal controls, having, as main inputs, the results of the Internal Investigation Committees.
  • 18. 18 Information: Investor Relations +55 21 3224-1510 petroinvest@petrobras.com.br NON REVIEWED INFORMATION 3rd Quarter 2014 __