Frankel Crime Trends Michigan

Paul Frankel, Ph.D. 1
Michigan Crime Trends

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.
Current Crime Trends in Michigan

May 2011

pifrankel@comcast.net
719/237-0338


Current Crime Trends in Michigan:
Summary Analysis and Policy Recommendations

There are many forms of quantitative and qualitative data that can be assessed and presented to
analyze trends in Michigan crime data over the last five to ten years. Data can be both
quantitative such as the number of incidents of a given crime annually or the rate of victimization
per State population, or qualitative reflecting narrative reports from law enforcement personnel
or other affiliated staff such as judges, lawyers, victims, and the general public. Moreover, the
method of data collection can vary ranging from automated information systems with custom
user interfaces, to paper-and-pencil worksheets or spreadsheets. One further caveat is that data
can be presented either in an aggregate form such as that presented by the FBI’s Uniform Crime
Reporting (UCR) summary data, or in a much more detailed case-level or incident-based analysis
as provided the last two years by the Michigan Incident Crime Reporting System (MICR).1

With respect to the quality and comprehensiveness of Michigan crime data, the level of analysis
is at times ambiguous. For example, some aggregate reports may present crime incidents,
arrests, victims, percent cleared cases, or some combination. It is important to note that every
effort has been made to present annual incidents of different categories of crimes, with a
particular emphasis on severe crimes such as homicide and sexual assault, and those property
crimes that touch thousands of good Michigan citizens each year.

Homicide

There is little doubt that murder is one of the most serious criminal offenses. The precise legal
definition of murder may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and is defined generally as the
unlawful killing of a human being with malice aforethought. The definition of murder has
evolved under modern statutes, and encompasses four varieties of a wanton disregard for human
life: (1) intentional murder; (2) a killing that resulted from the intent to do serious bodily injury;
(3) a killing that resulted from a depraved heart or extreme recklessness; and (4) murder
committed by an accomplice during the commission of, attempt of, or flight from certain
felonies.2

In Michigan, the incidence of the crime of murder has been steadily decreasing since 2005, with
an uncharacteristic upswing in 2006. Although only partial year data is available for 2010, as
can be seen in Figure 1, this most heinous crime has been decreasing or remaining relatively
stable over the last five years.345678 Moreover, in 2009, the overwhelming majority of murder

1
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.micrstats.state.mi.us/MICR/Home.aspx.
2
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/murder.
3
Data for 1996, 2001, and 2005 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-
analysis05_175995_7.pdf.
4
Data for 2006 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ag-glance06_220683_7.pdf.
5
Data for 2007 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-204981--
,00.html.
6
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7
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victims in Michigan were male (78%), disproportionally African American (70%), and more
than half (54%) of victims were killed by handguns.9

Figure 1. Trends for the Crime of Homicide in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Forcible Rape

Rape may be one of the most underreported crimes in America, due to the fear, mental health
trauma, and stigma attached to the reporting of sexual assault. Obtaining an accurate breadth and
scope of this crime is a challenge for law enforcement and, sadly, it is estimated that more than
one million Americans are sexually assaulted each year.10

Although traditionally limited to forcible attacks of men on woman, the definition of rape has
evolved and broadened over time. The perception of what constitutes rape has changed, yet can
be defined generally as unlawful sexual activity, usually sexual intercourse, carried out forcibly
or under threat of injury and against the will of the victim.11

According to Michigan statute, rape is the carnal knowledge of a person, forcibly and against
that person's will, or where the victim is incapable of giving consent because of his/her
temporary or permanent mental or physical incapacity. Rape classification includes assault to
rape and attempted rape, and only those offenses where the victim and offender are of the
opposite sex. Other types of sexual penetration are not included.12

As can be seen in Figure 2, In Michigan, the incidence of rape has been declining rapidly since
2005, with a sharp decrease between 2006-2007 (-17.8%).131415161718 Unsurprisingly, in 2009,
8
Partial year data for 2010 retrieved 5/10/2011 from
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2010_6monthPreliminary_Web_333090_7.pdf.
9
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_Murder_332335_7.pdf.
10
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.musc.edu/vawprevention/research/sa.shtml.
11
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.answers.com/topic/rape.
12
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ak-Rape06_220691_7.pdf.
13
14
15
,00.html.

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97% of victims were female, most victims were age 10-19, and the crimes predominantly
occurred in a home or residence.19 Further, dispelling the stereotype of “stranger rape,” the data
indicate that most victims and offenders were acquainted (or even family members), and the
relatively high incidence of victims ages 0-10 is most challenging for law enforcement
intervention, child abuse prevention initiatives, and the mental health system.

Figure 2. Trends for the Crime of Forcible Rape in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Aggravated Assault

Aggravated assault is a crime of violence or the threat of violence against another person, and
often results in personal bodily injury involving the use of a weapon.20 There are exceptions and
defenses in the case of aggravated assault such as defense of self or diminished responsibility,
and precise definitions may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

According to Michigan statute, aggravated assault is defined as an unlawful attack by one person
upon another wherein the offender uses a weapon or displays it in a threatening manner, or the
victim suffers obvious severe or aggravated bodily injury.21 Aggravated assault is substantially
more severe than simple battery, and an estimated 27,000 incidents of aggravated assault were
reported by Michigan law enforcement in 2009.22 Clearly this is a serious crime resulting in
[potentially] severe bodily injury that affects thousands of victims each year.

As can be seen in Figure 3, the crime of aggravated assault has been on a definite downward
trend since 2005. In fact, the incidence of aggravated assault has decreased more than one-

16
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17
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18
19
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_CSC_Rape_332336_7.pdf.
20
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault.
21
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AggravatedAssault_13002_332338_7.pdf.
22
,00.html.

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quarter (-26.6%) 2005-2009, and since 1996, aggravated assault has decreased almost one-third
since 1996 (-30.5%).2324252627 Moreover, consistent with the demographic trend for the crime of
murder in 2009, more than half of the victims of aggravated assault were male (56%) and
disproportionally African American (54%). Lastly, consistent with the demographic trend for
the crime of rape in 2009, many victims and offenders were acquainted or were family members,
and the stereotype of a random assault or altercation is not supported by the data.

Figure 3. Trends for the Crime of Aggravated Assault in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, and Motor Vehicle Theft

Crime touches the lives of many people in American. In Michigan, with an approximate
population of 10 million,28 there are more than 1 million incidents of reported crime annually
and, by definition, many incidents, injuries, and victims go unreported or underreported each
year.29 The large number of property crimes of robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle
theft have been grouped together to depict the Michigan trends regarding crimes against property
that affect the citizens of Michigan on a daily basis.

As can be seen in Figure 4, without exception, all categories of crimes against property have
been decreasing steadily in the last five years. For example, the crimes of larceny that affect
many people in the form of theft from motor vehicles, buildings, purses, and pockets, have
decreased as an aggregate by more than one-quarter (-25.2%) since 2005, and by almost half (-
48.8%) since 1996. Although burglary and robbery have remained relatively stable, there has
been a substantial decrease in the number of people affected by property crimes in the last five

23
24
25
,00.html.
26
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27
28
Retrieved on 5/10/11 from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html.
29
Retrieved on 5/10/11 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Aa-Introduction_GroupA_B_305552_7.pdf.

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years.303132333435 Lastly, with respect to property crimes, data is not readily available from law
enforcement reporting agencies regarding the demographic characteristics of these perpetrators
such as gender and race, and this is one large category of crimes where perpetrators are
infrequently arrested and documented.

Figure 4. Trends for Crimes against Property in Michigan, 1996-2010.

National Crime Trends and the State of Michigan

Homicide. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of
homicide and non-negligent manslaughter has remained relatively stable since 2005, with a
slight increase (1%) from 2005-2007.36 At the same time, the overall incidence of homicide and
non-negligent manslaughter has decreased slightly (-3%) in the Midwestern States of Illinois,
Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. By comparing year-to-year and from State-to-State, it
can be seen that Michigan experienced a one year upswing in homicides (2006), but all the
Midwestern States appear to be on an improving tract in comparison to the Entire U.S. (See
Table 1).37

30
31
32
,00.html.
33
,00.html.
34
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35
36
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm.
37
It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of homicide may vary to a degree depending on State
statute and definition.

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Table 1. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for the Crime of Homicide, 2005-2007.

Midwestern States 2005 2006 2007 Change 05-07
Illinois 770 780 752 -2.3%
Indiana 356 369 356 0.0%
Michigan 629 713 676 7.5%
Ohio 590 539 516 -12.5%
Wisconsin 206 164 183 -11.2%
Sum Midwest 2,551 2,565 2,483 -2.7%

United States-
Total 16,740 17,030 16,929 1.1%

Forcible Rape. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of
forcible rape has been decreasing at a modest pace, with san overall improvement in the
incidence of rape approaching 5%.38 In particular, Michigan has seen the largest decrease from
2005-2007 of more than 10%, and only Wisconsin has experienced a moderate increase among
the Midwestern States (see Table 2).39

Table 2. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for the Crime of Forcible Rape, 2005-2007.

Illinois 4313 4078 4103 -4.9%
Indiana 1856 1835 1742 -6.1%
Michigan 5199 5269 4579 -11.9%
Ohio 4671 4548 4452 -4.7%
Wisconsin 1,135 1,131 1,223 7.8%

Sum Midwest 17,174 16,861 16,099 -6.3%
United States-
Total 94,347 92,757 90,427 -4.2%

Property Crimes. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of
property crimes has decreased slightly since 2005 (-3.3%).40 In fact, all Midwestern States
except Wisconsin have seen small decreases in property climes since 2005. In particular,
Michigan has seen a very small decrease in property crimes since 2005, and according to the
Bureau of Justice Statistics, upwards of 300,000 Michigan citizens and almost 10 million U.S.
citizens in total have been victims of property crimes.41
38
39
It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of rape may vary to a degree depending on State statute
and definition.
40
41
It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of property crimes may vary to a degree depending on
State statute and definition. According to BJS, property crimes include burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft,
and arson.

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Table 3. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for Property Crimes, 2005-2007.

Illinois 394,670 387,478 377,322 -4.4%
Indiana 216,778 221,127 215,526 -0.6%
Michigan 312,892 324,351 308,775 -1.3%
Ohio 420,705 422,235 396,209 -5.8%
Wisconsin 147,556 156,571 158,959 7.7%

Sum Midwest 1,492,601 1,511,762 1,456,791 -2.4%
United States-
Total 10,174,754 9,983,568 9,843,481 -3.3%

Public Policy and Crime Management

It is evident that crime in the U.S. and, in particular Michigan, has been decreasing at a moderate
rate for the last five years. By contrast, the number of people under some form of correctional
supervision has reached new highs in the U.S.42 More still needs to be done to lower crime rates,
as in Michigan where more than 1 million citizens annually are affected by violent and property
crimes. Further, assuming that reported crimes substantially underestimate the incidence of “true
crime,” it is estimated that many millions of Michigan residents are affected each year by
crime—and the societal, community, familial, and individual [tangible and intangible] costs are
extremely high.

Long-term national forecasts indicate that the U.S. will need to build more prisons to house
offenders and re-offending individuals. At the same time, States are under enormous financial
pressure to reduce costs and to get the most bang-for-the buck out of existing programs to reduce
criminal behavior. In fact, the financial crash of 2006-2007 has left many States, nonprofit
foundations, and agencies functionally bankrupt, and the relative decrease of criminal behavior is
somewhat surprising in light of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.43

The incidence of criminal behavior in Michigan may be declining gradually because of factors
such as progressive rape statutes (e.g., Rape shield laws, etc.), multijurisdiction task forces, and
stringent enforcement of drug laws, but it is possible that an increase in the incidence of criminal
behavior, child abuse, and domestic violence will lag several years behind the financial
challenges of the late 2000’s. Moreover, other more subtle behavioral markers such as substance
abuse, the number of families falling below the poverty line, or school bullying may prove to be
more sensitive proxies of the financial stress in the U.S. and in the State of Michigan. In fact,
children of color are disproportionally vulnerable to financial stressors in Michigan and many
child victims of violent and property crimes may go unreported or underreported during these
tough financial times.44

42
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.policyalmanac.org/crime/index.shtml.
43
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis.
44
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.heartlandalliance.org/research/data/michigan07.pdf.

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Some innovative States such as Washington State have decided to invest in evidenced-based
programs and services, including primary prevention, rather than invest exclusively in the
building of new prisons.45 For instance, investments were made in drug treatment programs,
parenting education, multisystemic therapy, interventions for juveniles, and early childhood
education. As very few States have a strong primary or secondary prevention repertoire of
services, the State of Washington can provide a good lesson for the State of Michigan in
investing in prevention rather than in “rehabilitation.” In fact, Washington State found that
comprehensive prevention programs such as functional family therapy and Nurse Family
Partnership reduced recidivism three-times as much as typical responses such as drug-court.

Victims of crime, especially victims of violent crimes, have rights and liberties that have been
compromised, injured, and damaged. It is imperative that all States take very seriously the
Victims’ Bill of Rights, including the Michigan constitutional amendment to protect rights for
victims.46 Crime victims’ rights ought to be protected as vociferously as the rights of the
accused and, furthermore, the State of Michigan ought to make every effort to integrate the
innovative practice of restorative justice into each case of violent crime or crimes against
property.

For example, the State of Minnesota has followed the practice of restorative justice as developed
in Europe, Asia, Australia, and Africa. Restorative justice is integral to many cultures
worldwide, and helps to bolster communities free from fear and xenophobia. In fact, the Office
of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention has piloted curriculum for use with juveniles,
and in both Minnesota and Texas victims and offenders are being provided safe opportunities for
face-to-face dialogue.47 This type of intensive one-on-one work with victims and offenders
demands staff time and resources, and Michigan struggles like many States with workforce
issues.

In 2009, the State of Michigan reported 16,970 police officers across all police and sheriff
agencies.48 In a State of 10 million residents and almost 100,000 square miles it is
understandable from a workload point of view, that providing one-on-one attention to offenders
and victims is challenging. In fact, the number of officers in 2009 was reduced 3% from 2008,
and it is unlikely that the Governor’s new budget will afford significant additional hires and
advanced training in 2011. With staff limitations in mind, the State of Michigan may be able to
hire or entice paraprofessionals and other auxiliary staff or volunteers to help reduce the
workload of existing officers.

One challenge with any large State staff in a diverse social and economic milieu (i.e., police and
sheriff departments) is that workers wear many “hats” and have diverse roles and
responsibilities, must multi-task, and often spend an inordinate amount of time in meetings,

45
Drake, E.K., Aos, S., & Miller, M.G. (2009). Evidenced-based public policy options to reduce crime and criminal
justice costs: Implications in Washington State. Victims and Offenders, 4:170-196.
46
http://www.ncvc.org/ncvc/main.aspx?dbName=DocumentViewer&DocumentID=32726.
47
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.doc.state.mn.us/rj/publications/reflectionsonnational.htm.
48
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AgencyClearanceInformation_332345_7.pdf.

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waiting in queue, and processing paperwork or other digital documentation. Further, some cases
using innovative practices such as restorative justice or crime prevention techniques require a
greater “workload” for success and fidelity. The State of Michigan would benefit by conducting
a large-scale workload study on police and sheriffs in order to ascertain what services are being
offered, the degree of follow-up to offenders and victims, and how much time officers are
spending inefficiently or on unnecessary tasks.

For example, the State of New York conducted a large-scale workload study of child welfare
caseworker practices, which could be extrapolated to a workload study for police and sheriffs.49
In the New York study it was found that caseworkers generally spend less than two-thirds of
their time actually providing services for clients, and the rest of time was spent waiting, filing,
reporting, and generally being unproductive. Analogously, by examining in detail the
characteristics of officers on-the-job, it is conceivable that inefficiencies in police practice could
be identified (e.g., voluminous paperwork, waiting for court, etc.) and exchanged for more
effective and streamlined practices.

Final Thoughts: The State of the State

We are proud to be Michiganders, with a long history of economic, cultural and social successes.
Despite some relatively recent sensationalism and negative reporting for Michigan’s real and
imagined shortcomings, hardworking and law abiding citizens of Michigan abound. In fact, the
crime rate continues to improve substantially; unemployment may dip below 10% for the first
time in several years; the Governor has announced new federal grants for the State; and,
agriculture, the demand for green jobs, tourism, and the reinvention of the automotive industry
are harbingers of future solvency.50

As with much of the U.S. and with most States in the Midwestern U.S., the incidence of serious
crime in Michigan is decreasing at a considerable rate—in some cases as much as 10%.
Although somewhat unexpected based on the financial challenges of the late 2000’s, progressive
and innovative law enforcement practices and policies account for a number of the positive
changes. Nonetheless, much work remains to make Michigan more secure for all citizens,
especially for the economically disadvantaged and families of color.

Several public policy recommendations have been offered for crime management in Michigan,
and not every option requires additional funding or zero-sum State budget decisions. For
example, reorganizing funding priorities from a focus on prisons and incarceration to a focus on
primary prevention and building protective factors requires a paradigmatic shift in long-term
strategic planning. For some policy recommendations, such as a large-scale workload study to
identify efficiencies in policing, additional funding for research will be needed. For each policy
recommendation, evidence has been provided based on the successes of other States, and no
options seem cost prohibitive as the State of Michigan recovers gradually from economic and
political sluggishness. Michigan appears to have “re-discovered” itself!

49
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.ocfs.state.ny.us/main/reports/WorkloadStudy.pdf.
50
Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://milmi.org/admin/uploadedPublications/1781_MI_Econ_Ind_Winter2011.pdf.

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