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Minnesota’s Economics & Demographics Looking To 2030 & Beyond Tom Stinson, State Economist Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer July 2008
Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Minnesota’s Economy Has Changed  Since the 1960s
Minnesota’s Per Capita Personal Income Exceeds the U.S. Average by 6 Percent   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Minnesota’s GDP Growth Rate Exceeded the US Average, 1967-2007
Minnesota Private Industry Has Generally Matched National Growth Index Of Private Industry GDP BEA.  Before 1997 based on SIC.  Since 1997 NAICS
2007 Minnesota Per Capita GDP Is 8.8% Above The National Average BEA
Payroll Employment Growth 1972-2007
Payroll Employment in Minnesota Has Grown Faster than the US Average
Manufacturing Employment 1972-2000
Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Has Been Well Below the US Average
Minnesota Per Capita Income Has Grown Faster Than The Nation’s
Minnesota A Leader Among Northeast and North Central States In Population Growth  Since 1990, Slightly Slower Than The National Average BEA from Census.  US=1.1%, Mn 1.0% per year
Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Updated July 2008
Past Performance Does Not Ensure Future Results
From 2004 to 2007 Minnesota Underperformed the US Averages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Minnesota Payroll Employment Has Struggled Since Early 2006
Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Now Is Similar to the US Average
US Manufacturing Employment Fell Faster Than MN, 2000-2007
Minnesota Ranked 30 th  in Employment Growth, 2000-2007
Minnesota Ranked 24 th  in Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 2000-2007
Real Per Capita GDP Growth Compared to Neighboring States 2000-2007
Real Per Capita GDP Growth Compared to Midwestern States 2000-2007
Real Per Capita GDP Compared to High Tech States 2000-2007
 
 
But… What About Tomorrow?
Economic Fact of Life #1 First Principle of Economic Growth ,[object Object],[object Object]
Four Mega-Forces Will Shape Minnesota’s Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Three Big Demographic Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
By 2020 Minnesota will add about ¾ Million People & 1/3 Million Households State Demographer projection revised 2007
Suburban & Exurban Growth Coupled With Rural Declines Central Cities Have Stabilized
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2006 Census Bureau estimate.  Hennepin in 2005
In 2006, Minnesota’s Foreign Born Workforce Was 240,000 or 8% Of The Total Workforce 2006 ACS
From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will  See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s  Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded
The Number of Workers Turning Age 62 Will Jump 30 Percent in 2008 2005 ACS
Childless Couples And 1-person Households Projected To Grow Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply
Migration Increases in Importance as Labor Force Growth Slows State Demographer projection revised 2007
The Three Most Important Factors For Future Economic Success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Fact of Life #2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Academic Research Is a Key Factor in State Economic Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
R&D Spending Slowed in the Early 90s We Are No Longer Above Average Rank 1972 Rank 2004 Total Academic R&D 19 26 Academic R&D per capita 20 40 Academic R&D per dollar of GSP 20 43
 
Education Is The Key To Productivity   Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio 2004-05 through 2005-06 graduates. Based on 10 th  grade enrollment three years earlier.
Managing State Finances Will Be Challenging
Minnesota’s Population Will Change The Three Largest Cost Drivers In The State Budget Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
Health Care Spending Jumps After 55 U.S. Health Care Spending By Age, 2004 Source: Agency for HealthCare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, data for per capita spending by age group in the Midwest. Excludes spending for long-term care institutions.
State Taxes Paid by a Married Couple Before and After Retirement -58% -$2,695 $1,987 $896 $1,091 $45,000 -72% -$1,459 $559 $559 $0 $25,000 Retired @ 70 % $4,682 $1,295 $3,387 $65,000 $2,018 $782 $1,236 $35,000 Working Pct Change Total Sales Tax Income Tax Income
State/Local Government’s Share of Personal Income Has Declined   Mn Dept of Finance
Estimating the Volatility of a System of Taxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Portfolio Theory Suggests Using a Tax System that Minimizes Volatility for a Given Growth Rate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Actual vs. Efficient MN One-Year Tax-Mix Given the Current Trend Growth Rate  Actual  FY 2005-2007 Portfolio Efficient  Tax Mix  Portfolio Difference:  (Efficient Less Actual)       Trend Growth Rate 7.70% 7.70% 0.00% Volatility  (Standard Deviation) 3.26% 3.09% -0.17%         Share of Total Tax Revenue           General Sales 31.2% 60.3% +29.2% Corporate Income 7.4% 13.1% +5.6% Individual Income 48.1% 9.2% -39.0% Other Revenues 13.3% 17.4% +4.2%         Total 100.0% 100.0%
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Economy Demographics 072508