The document describes a case study where a company called GasCom used Acumen's S1>S5 framework to align a pipeline and LNG facility project with stakeholder objectives, which involved critiquing the schedule, adjusting for risks, optimizing through acceleration and validation, allowing the project to meet its sanctioned December 2013 first gas date.

1. Achieving the Unachievable
A Case Study on Aligning a
Project with Stakeholder
Objectives
enterprise project analysis
Dr. Dan Patterson PMP | CEO & Founder Acumen

2. Introductions
! Acumen: Project Management Software Company
! Market leader in Analytics; 20 year legacy
! Oracle Primavera & Microsoft partner
S1 > S5™ Framework Acumen Core Offerings
S5: Acumen Fuse®
Validate
S4:
Optimize
S3: Risk-
S2:
Adjust Risk Assessment Workshops
Critique
S1: Build
Software Training

3. 3
Case Study Introduction
! Case study: GasCom
! LNG Pipeline & Facility Owner
! Early FEED stage
! Project readying for sanction approval
! Investment board Dec 2013 P75 First Gas
! Gas Sales contract already established
! GasCom adopted Acumen S1>S5
! Required contractors to achieve Fuse Schedule
Index™ of 75%
! Schedule developed in Primavera P6
! All analytics conducted using Acumen Fuse
February 10, 2012

4. 4
GasCom S1 > S5 Approach
• Schedule Basis
S1 • Reflects latest scope/contractor updates
• Critiqued Schedule
S2 • Structurally sound, no contingency, sound logic
• Risk-Adjusted Schedule
S3 • Estimate uncertainty, risk events
• Optimized Target Scenarios
S4 • Reduced hot spots, higher confidence
• Team Validated Scenario
S5 • Buy-in on mitigation plans
February 10, 2012

5. 5
S1 > S2 Schedule Review
! Deterministic date of Dec 2013
! Bidding contractors submitted their
schedules to GasCom
! GasCom needed to ensure sufficient
realism in the schedules
! Looked for means of compressing the
schedule to show that an earlier First Gas
was achievable
February 10, 2012

6. 6
Schedule Critique
! Metric Analysis
! Quality of logic
! Float analysis
! Realism of durations
! Contractor maturity/realism
! Based on the Fuse metric library
February 10, 2012 [demo of standard Schedule analysis]

7. Fuse Schedule Index™ 7
Analysis by Contractor
February 10, 2012

8. 8
Schedule Analysis Results
! Bidder B failed Schedule Quality review
! Quality was less than 75% threshold
! Had to re-submit resolved schedule
! Used Fuse Schedule Assistant™ to fix
shortcomings
February 10, 2012

9. 9
GasCom Schedule Cleanse
Lags converted
to activities
February 10, 2012

10. Impact of Schedule 10
Cleanse
5 month slippage
February 10, 2012

11. 11
Logic Integrity
! Use of FS, FF, SF, SS links
! SS links don’t account for durations
! Lags hide schedule detail redundant
! Leads cause reverse dates A
! Circular logic between projects
B
! Out of sequence updates
! Open start/finish: hidden open ends C
! Logic Density™
! Logic Hotspot™
! Redundancy Index™
February 10, 2012

12. 12
GasCom Logic Density™
! Measure of complexity & soundness
! Dual-band threshold: 2 to 6…
! Determine Logic Hotspots™ in schedule
! GasCom the level of detail was lacking towards the end
of the project – mainly around interfaces & integration
More definition
needed
February 10, 2012

13. 13
Driving Logic Analysis
! Test to ensure true path to First Gas
! Analysis showed that there was an error in
the schedule with a break in the path
around Early Works
! As a result of fixing this missing path, First
Gas moved to the right by 2 months
February 10, 2012

14. Removal of Logic 14
Redundancy
8% redundancy
Removal of redundancy led to a cleaner, more robust schedule

15. 15
GasCom Float Analysis
! S1 showed high float in early stage of project
! S2 resolved schedule showed the opposite
! Sanction acceleration opportunity went away
Originally percieved
opportunity for making up Resolved schedule not
60 lost time through float offering early stage schedule
absorbtion in early stage of acceleration
40 project
20
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2011 Q1 Q2
2011 2011
2012 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2012 Q2 Q3
2013 2013 Q4
2013 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 Q3
2014 Q4
S1 Average Float S2 Average Float 2014
2014
February 10, 2012

16. 16
S1 > S2 Summary
! Bidder schedules all passed the Schedule
Quality Index™ Assessment
! Missing logic was added
! Lags converted to activities
! Opportunity for schedule acceleration was
understood (back-end loaded)
S1: Dec 2013 5 months S2: May 2014
February 10, 2012

17. 17
S2 > S3 Risk Analysis
! Objective: to determine a risk-adjusted P75 First Gas
! Risk workshop conducted
! True risk exposure was actually at end of project
70%
Team Perception
60%
Actual Risk Hotspots
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
February 10, 2012

18. 18
Risk Insight
! Hidden critical paths
! Risk hot Spots™
! Determined that Land acquisition activities were
extremely critical yet weren’t identified in the
schedule
Land acquisition
February 10, 2012

19. 19
S3 Summary
! P75 risk-adjusted First Gas: Oct 2014
! 10 months later than board expectations
! Key risk hot spots in schedule identified
! Long Lead procurement items
! Hidden path identified
! Driven by land acquisition delaying pipeline early
works
S1: Dec 2013 5 S2: May 2014 10 S3: Oct 2014
February 10, 2012

20. S4: Getting back to 20
December 2013…
Risk Mitigation Plan Schedule Acceleration
! Response plan identified ! LNG pipeline ready for
for each key risk hookup: Feb 2013
! These plans became part ! LNG Facility ready to
of the overall schedule receive gas: Nov 2013
! Focus needed to be on
! Enabled cost/benefit of
accelerating the LNG
the mitigation plan to be facility
assessed ! Could even afford to slow
! $100MM investment to down pipeline/field work
save 1 month by a couple of months…
February 10, 2012

21. LNG Facility Acceleration
Criteria Set
Drive acceleration
!
LNG Facility
! Reduce duration
Script Objective
! More resources “accelerate Facility by 6
months”
! Changed calendars
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
Accelerate Delay Train Introduce 6
! Contractor incentive Jetty 2 activities day working
construction week/larger
camp
! Delay Train 2

22. 22
How Did This Work?
! CPM simulation
! Critical path focus
! Incremental push
! Prioritize
! Earliest/latest
! Longest durations
! Least resistance
February 10, 2012

23. 23
S4 Summary
! LNG Facility was able to be accelerated
sufficiently so as to not be the driving path in
the schedule
! Deterministic First Gas of August 2013
! 4 months earlier than Dec 2013 but not a
valid comparison!
! Sanction board wanted a P75 date not a
deterministic
! Risk-adjusted S4 date of February 2014
! Only 2 months later than target…
February 10, 2012

24. 24
S5 Team Buy-in
! A further 2 months acceleration was still required…
! New mitigation plans developed based on the
updated risk analysis after the schedule compression
! Model showed that if the board would sanction a
further $500MM spend to sponsor the more
aggressive mitigation plan, then P75 could be brought
back to Dec 2013.
! Project team went to the board with both options and
were duly granted the green-light for the more
aggressive plan so as to achieve earlier production…
February 10, 2012

25. 25
GasCom First Gas Dates
P75 Schedule Delay From Dec 2013 1st Gas (months)
10
9
8
7
6
10 Resolved, risk-
5
adjusted,
4
accelerated,
mitigated
3 5
2
2 0
1
0
0
S1 - base S2 - resolved S3 - risk- S4 - accelerated S5 - mitigated
adjusted
Scenario
February 10, 2012

26. 26
The End Result
! Fully vetted, bought-into schedule
! Risk-adjusted
! LNG Facility accelerated to align with pipeline
! Mitigation plan sponsored by board
! Sanction awarded!
February 10, 2012

27. Better Planning Drives 27
Project Success
100%
Probability of On-Time Completion
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fuse Quality Index™
February 10, 2012

28. Sample of Completed 28
S1>S5 Projects
Top of bar represents sanctioned
target completion date
Vertical bar represents
forecasted risk range
Diamond represents actual/
final forecast completion date

29. More information:
White papers: www.projectacumen.com
Software Trial: www.projectacumen.com/trial
Twitter: @projectacumen
Email: info@projectacumen.com